The EU has announced that it supports “in principle” an embargo on Iranian oil exports. A final decision on an embargo won’t be made until the end of January and it appears that some exceptions to the embargo will be allowed. The ball now goes to the Iranian court–we’ll see how they respond to this set of sanctions. The Eu clearly wants to muddy the waters about the embargo in hopes that there won’t be a decisive “flash point” to set off the Iranians. Perhaps the Iranians will make that interpretation in order to avoid a confrontation. If a confrontation does occur, the price of oil will go up quite dramatically for at least a short period of time. It doesn’t help that the US and Israeli militaries are planning a major joint exercise this spring–the largest in the history of the US-Israeli alliance.
The Obama Administration has announced plans for a new military strategy that seems to downplay the US military role in Europe and emphasizes the Pacific instead. President Obama took the unusual step of announcing the new strategy from a briefing room in the Pentagon–a move that decidedly stamps his name on the new strategy. It is a shift away from the Army/Marine focus of the wars in Afghanistan and Iraq to a more Air/Naval approach. The new strategy not only reflects a change in the assessment of threat, but also a change in the budget realities facing the US.
Charles Grant has an extended essay on the problems facing Europe in the most recent issue of Foreign Policy. It is a very sobering read, but is right on the mark.
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