The European economic crisis has moved off the front page of most global media and that reflects a sense that there is no imminent threat to the Union. That may be true, but the underlying problems remain and it does not appear as if the Union is making any substantial progress. The most recent European summit ended without an agreement on the unification of the banking system. Muddling along is not necessarily a bad strategy if one believes that, over time, the situation will improve. There is no reason to believe that economic growth will return to Europe any time soon.
The US is sending 400 troops and Patriot missiles to Turkey in an effort to beef up Turkish defenses against spillover from the Syrian civil war. This escalation of the US presence in the region will only be interpreted negatively by the states that continue to support President Assad, Russia and Iran.
The horrific shooting in Newtown, CT is not something I would normally post on this blog. But President Obama’s statement on the tragedy is an impressive example of something that moves world politics all the time: leadership. Listen carefully to his words and examine how those words resonate with your own sense of community and common purpose. Such is the rhetoric of a person with incredible power that one hopes will always be used for good.
Japan scrambled 8 fighter jets as Chinese vessels neared the Diaoyu/Senkakus Islands. The heightened tension comes as the Japanese election nears, and it could have the effect of enhancing the electoral chances of Shintaro Ishihara’s Restoration Party which seeks to revise the anti-militarist clauses in the Japanese constitution. Indeed, there are a number of new parties in the Japanese election (to be held this weekend) that could be characterized as right-wing. Not a good time for a crisis with China.
Globalization leads to a certain degree of homogenization in human culture. The internet has accelerated this trend, particularly in the realm of language. There is a variety of English that is permeating the internet, perhaps leading to the first universal language.
The UN has been debating an international treaty primarily concerned with technical standards for phone calls under the aegis of the International Telecommunications Union. The proposed treaty, however, deals with definitions of communications and government controls over those communications that the US believes interfere with freedom of speech on the internet. Right now, the internet is controlled by a private organization based in the US, and many governments wish to move governance of the internet to a more public, international forum. It doesn’t appear as if this treaty will go very far.
Happy 12/12/12. It won’t happen again. But, then, neither will any other date. We’re still waiting for the end of the world on the 21st.
The US National Intelligence Council has issued one of its reports on the future issues facing the United States. The report predicts a world in 2030 which will be radically different from today (hardly a new prediction), but its words are pretty emphatic: the world is “at a critical juncture in human history.” It is actually a fairly chilling report–one should read it after the holidays.
“North Korea has successfully launched a satellite into orbit” OR “North Korea has successfully tested an intercontinental ballistic missile.” You can choose which sentence you prefer because they both accurately described what happened yesterday. The launch took the satellite directly over Japanese territory, raising all sorts of concerns in East Asia. The UN Security Council had earlier passed resolutions condemning missile tests, but North Korea defended its actions as purely scientific.
The world now pays little attention to Afghanistan since the US has declared that it is going to withdraw in 2014. The attention span of the global media is reprehensible since there are so many issues left outstanding in this long-suffering country. It is precisely because the US is going to withdraw that we should pay greater attention to events in Afghanistan.
President Obama has recognized the Syrian National Council as the sole legitimate representative of the Syrian people. The isolation of the Assad regime is virtually complete except for the Russians and Iranians. It is unlikely that any tangible changes will occur right away, but we can expect the US and the EU to begin coordinating activities to start bringing assistance to the rebel groups. The die is now cast. At the same time, the US has blacklisted the al-Nusra rebel group as a terrorist organization.
Unmanned Aerial Vehicles (or drones) are changing the landscape of warfare (and will become an increasingly important part of domestic security programs). The Council for Foreign Relations has published a great backgrounder on these new weapons.
The talks between the M23 rebels, the Democratic Republic of Congo, and Uganda are apparently leading nowhere. The news is especially grim for the civilians in eastern Congo and it does not appear as if there is any interest whatsoever in restarting the talks. The outside world must take steps to force all the parties into more serious negotiations.
The opposition in Egypt has decided oppose openly the referendum on the new constitution. The decision sets up a real confrontation which will likely be violent. Referenda held during violent demonstrations are very difficult to interpret, which often leads to greater violence. It would have been far better to have deferred the vote for a short period of time.
The US is scrambling for some traction within the Syrian opposition movement. It has selected some groups within the opposition to support and designated other faction as terrorist organizations. Fine-tuning support within a very disorganized group is likely a bootless task–I am not sure that any of the groups really cares who is on what list. One could begin to describe Obama’s policy toward Syria as feckless.
The Global Climate Change Conference in Qatar is now over, and the initial reports is that not much progress was made. We will wait for the final report before we assess its impact. But time is certainly running out as this article in Der Spiegel argues. The world has long passed the point where significant change could be avoided.
The Russian press has noted that the US has sent one of its aircraft carrier groups, the USS Eisenhower, to the coast of Syria. Such a move is not surprising, but it indicates that the US has solidified the contingency plans for an intervention in Syria. What we don’t know is whether any other NATO countries have deployed troops in the region. And we don’t know what might be the trigger for an intervention, although the Syrian use of chemical weapons is a clear bet.
The right wing is on the rise in Japan, mirroring the rise of right wing parties in other parts of the world. The sense of loss, injured national pride, and economic turmoil all contribute to the appeal of nationalist parties that urge a renewed commitment to old traditions and practices. As the world becomes increasingly uncertain, we can be certain that these movements will gather strength.
The protests in Egypt are continuing and we’re still waiting to see what Morsi’s next move will be. There are a number of analysts who are already writing off the Egyptian Revolution as hopelessly lost, Such judgments are profoundly premature, as argued by Stephen Walt. His argument is definitely worth considering. The latest reports have Morsi annulling his dictatorial powers, but sticking to the 15 December referendum. We’ll see if this concession is enough to settle things down for a short while.
Rania Abouzeid published an essay in Time magazine about a young Syrian soldier who defected from the Syrian army and become a sniper for the rebels. The essay is deeply moving and troubling, raising some of the incredibly difficult issues in determining right and wrong in a civil war. The young man is amazingly clear-headed about the moral indefensibility of his actions, and yet remains committed to the idea that he is doing the right thing.
Silvio Berlusconi essentially brought down the technocratic government of Mario Monti in Italy, by announcing his intention to run for office again. Monti’s leadership depended on the support Berlusconi’s party in Parliament, and the defection of that party from the coalition leaves Monti without a majority. We’ll have to see how the international markets react to this change on Monday, since Italy virtually collapsed economically under Berlusconi’s previous administration. Not a good step for Europe.
The reports concerning the possible use of chemical weapons in Syria have been greeted with skepticism by the Russians. The Russian Foreign Minister reminded the world that similar warnings were made about Iraq prior to the US invasion in 2003. Syrian activists outside of Syrian are also skeptical of the claim.
The German economy, long the mainstay of the overall European economy, is slowing down, suggesting that the entire European economy might be heading back into a recession. Given the economic growth rates in several of those countries is already negative, the news is hardly good.
There has been increased emphasis on trying to figure out a diplomatic solution to the horrible violence in Central Africa. Negotiations are at best fitful, and the lack of sustained attention to the underlying dynamics of the violence undermines all attempts at diplomacy. Foreign Policy ran a good article on how to proceed with a possible solution.
The climate talks in Qatar are nearing an end, and it appears as if no progress has been made on the issue of climate change. At least the parties are talking about how greenhouse gas reductions can be paid for–being aware of the price that needs to be paid is a step forward. But there were no concrete proposals made by any of the parties that seemed to have a chance of being accepted. We’ll have to wait for another year.
There are an increasing number of reports in the US media (but not outside the US) about the possibility of Syrian troops using its chemical weapons in the civil war. I really cannot assess the veracity of these reports because I don’t know on what information the reports are based. The reports, however, seem to suggest that US Secretary of State Clinton is meeting with the Russian Foreign Minister about the matter (since the Russians supply the Syrians with all their weapons). If they are meeting, then the situation is truly serious.
The Egyptian standoff continues, and President Morsi backed off a little, calling his assertion of near-dictatorial power “temporary.” The protesters, however, are not accepting his position and have surrounded the palace. It does seem, however, that there are some who are seeking a way out–whether these efforts can be successful depends a great deal on what happens in the street.
The Israeli decision to expand its settlements in the E1 zone (East Jerusalem) has elicited a negative response from many sectors that is especially sharp and highly unusual. In particular, several European nations summoned their Israeli Ambassadors for an explanation of the move. The Palestinians are vowing to bring the matter to the UN Security Council which will bring the matter to a head for the US. The US is on record as opposing the settlement, but would likely veto any Security Council Resolution condemning Israel. The contradiction would be very difficult to explain.
And now: Prepare to have your mind blown (does anyone still say this, or am I just an artifact of a dead age?)
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