Carbon emissions last year broke previous years’ records, increasing by 3% in 2011. The rate of increase suggests that any efforts to prevent climate change from occurring later on in the century are likely to fail. The climate meetings currently going on in Qatar are not even raising the issue of emission limits. The lack of attention to this issue at the national and international level is mind-boggling.
There have been a flurry of reports today about the movement of chemical weapons in Syria. I’m not at all sure what is going on. One possibility is that the Syrian military is planning to use chemical weapons against civilians. Another possibility is that the international community is emphasizing the possibility of the use of these weapons in order to justify an intervention. We don’t know where the information is coming from (the rebels? the US? Israel?) and that little bit of information would tell us a lot. Keep tuned in.
North Korea is planning on testing a long-range missile that will undoubtedly raise tensions in East Asia. Significantly, both Russia and China have come out in strong opposition to the planned test. The opposition will likely have little effect on the North Koreans, but the expressed opposition will calm the nerves of the Japanese and the South Koreans worried about North Korea acting as a stalking horse for the Chinese.
The situation in Egypt continues to deteriorate. The Egyptian High Court has gone on strike after President Morsi called for a nation-wide referendum on the new constitution to be held on 15 December. Many in Egypt fear that the new constitution does not protect the rights of all Egyptians equally. The difficulty is that many opponents of the new constitution will boycott the referendum, thereby assuring its passage. If that is the outcome, then the only alternative course of action is continued protest.
The new President of Mexico is Enrique Peña Nieto. Pena Nieto returns the Institutional Revolutionary Party (PRI) to power after a brief hiatus. Most US citizens have a very distorted view of Mexico and are unaware of the economic dynamism that has characterized Mexico over the last 10 years. It does, however, have some serious issues that Peña Nieto needs to address.
Many in the world are concerned about China’s recent policy of boarding vessels in what it regards as its territorial waters. We should also worry about the growing nationalist strain in Japanese politics which has been overshadowed by China’s rhetoric but is just as troubling. The two powers do not have a high regard for each other and a long history of hostility.
The expansion of Israeli settlements announced yesterday is more significant than it first appears. The plans will effectively divide the West Bank into a northern and southern zone with an Israeli settlement in the middle. It is hard to imagine how Palestine could exist as a viable non-contiguous state. Moreover, the settlements issue is what made Germany decide to abstain on the UN vote. Germany is one of Israel’s staunchest supporters, but it had asked for an Israeli statement on the future of the settlements, a request that the Israelis apparently ignored.
The M23 rebels have left the city of Goma in a move that suggests the possibility that Uganda’s peace overtures have had some effect. M23’s objective was to remove President Kabila from his position in Congo, and it is unlikely that Kabila will resign. The dispute between Kabila of Congo and Kagame of Rwanda needs to be mediated by some entity–it should not be allowed to spill over into such horrific violence.
Robert Skidelsky is a prominent economist who has an interesdting perspective on the economic crisis on 2007-08 and its lingering effects on contemporary economic growth. It is a perspective that suggests that the real driver of the economic malaise of the last 5 years is income inequality and not bad credit. It is worth a read.
Unemployment in Europe has reached record highs. The austerity measures pursued by the IMF and the European Union are having a decided effect on economic growth rates: inflation rates are very low, but the price is high unemployment. The political price of these policies is both the growth of the political right-wing and the large protests which have yet to congeal into a definable political movement. But Europe is only part of the equation–economic growth rates in India, Brazil, and Canada are also declining.
The day after the Palestinian Authority was granted non-member observer state status at the UN, Israel announced that it was going to build 3,000 new settlement homes in East Jerusalem. The settlements are a major obstacle in the peace negotiations between Israel and the PA, and there is virtually unanimous legal opinion that the settlements are illegal under international law. It is likely that the Israeli announcement is more connected with the upcoming national election in Israel in January than it is to the UN vote. It nonetheless, represents an additional obstacle to the negotiations.
China has announced that, as of 1 January, it will assert the right to board and search any ship within what it regards as its territorial waters. As you can see from the map, the area of alleged control is huge (and pretty far from China’s shores).
The New York Times has published an excellent interactive map on the issues surrounding the border issues associated with the creation of a Palestinian state coexisting next to the state of Israel. I highly recommend the map for those of you who find the Israeli-Palestinian dispute intractable: once you break down the different parts of the dispute, none of the specific issues appears to be insurmountable.
The UN General Assembly has voted 138-9 to grant non-member observer state (a huge step up from having its current non-member observer entity). The status is still short of full membership, but it represents an important change. The composition of the majority was also significant since France, Spain, Italy and the Scandinavian countries were in favor of the resolution while Britain, Germany and the Netherlands abstained. The US and Israel were profoundly isolated in their opposition. We will await any possible repercussions.
Scientists have finally been able to make accurate measurements of the rates of ice melt in both Greenland and Antarctica, and, unfortunately, the ice is melting at a rate faster than that predicted by the climate change models. One would think that this new evidence would stimulate more effective action against greenhouse gas emissions, but such a result remains unlikely.
The far-right Jobbik Party in Hungary has rattled Europe. Its deputy leader has called for Jews to be registered on lists as threats to national security. Fortunately, the party does not have a significant voice in the Parliament (44 out of 386 seats), but it is remarkable that such statements would be made at all.
There are times when the news simply seems weird. Here are some interesting stories from Europe. 1) Denmark repeals its law making it a crime to insult God (although it is still a crime to insult the Queen); 2) Germany moves to ban bestiality; 3) Poland has ruled that the ritual slaughter of animals is illegal; and 4) European farmers sprayed milk all over the European Parliament building. There must be a thread that unites these stories, but I can’t’ yet figure it out.
The economic situation in Greece defies comprehension as the lives of ordinary citizens change in ways they had never expected. The Guardian published a piece on how people are trying to make ends meet in Greece–a turn of events likely to be replicated in several other places in the world over the next few years.
Catalonia has elected a parliament that includes a majority of members who favor independence from Spain. The Spanish system of government is distinctly federal with the various regions of Spain already having a high degree of autonomy, much to the dismay of the central government which ends up trying to pay the bills of the various provincial governments. Indeed, Catalonian independence is being seriously considered because of the problems that Spain is encountering in making sure that its financial system stays afloat. Since Catalonia is such an economically dynamic part of the Spanish economy, its defection would be a serious blow to the Spanish state.
We are learning more about the cease-fire between Hamas and Israel, but the more we learn, the more we realize that the two sides agreed on virtually nothing other than a cessation to shooting. There are incredible ambiguities in the alleged agreement and the longevity of the cease-fire really depends upon Egypt and the US leaning on both sides not to open fire again. As long as both Israel and Hamas believe that they have little to lose from the cease-fire, it will hold. But it doesn’t seem as if it is more than a brief respite right now. Meanwhile, Fatah is poised to hold a vote on its UN status on Thursday: that vote could affect how both Hamas and Israel perceive the benefits of the cease-fire.
The M23 rebel force continues to press on in its attempt to overthrow the government of the Democratic Republic of Congo. Uganda is feverishly trying to host a conference to reach a peaceful settlement, but the effort seems doomed to fail. At this point, the outside world remains completely silent on the turmoil in the region.
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