The US is joining in the war of words in the Korean peninsula. It decided to send two stealth bombers (capable of carrying nuclear weapons) over South korea to signal its intention to defend South Korea against a nuclear attack. One can understand why the US wants its commitment to the South to be crystal clear, it is not clear that sending such a provocative signal is a good idea. We’ll see how the North responds.
In a dramatic change, the UN Security Council has authorized its peacekeeping forces in central Africa to use force to track down rebel guerrillas Typically, UN forces are tied to a purely defensive position–they cannot fire their weapons unless they are fired upon first. The change is long overdue in central Africa which has experienced relentless violence for the last few years. THis initiative may be the stabiklizing force that the region desperately needs.
Answers to the UMass quiz on 28 March 2013
To be successful, a hegemonic system needs to be
Transparent b. accessible c. mutually beneficial d. even-handed
Which is the best example of projective military power?
The tank b. the aircraft carrier c. the stealth bomber d. the drone
What commodity was the basis for American economic power in the 20th century?
Petroleum b. gold c. iron ore d. platinum
What country refused to take on the role of hegemon in the aftermath of World War I?
Germany b. the Soviet Union c. Great Britain d. the US
Prior to World War I, Germany feared a two-front war with France and
Great Britain b. Russia c. Poland d. Austria
World War I started with the German invasion of what country?
Belgium b. France c. Holland d. Serbia
Woodrow Wilson introduced the idea of collective security and what other idea to the world in 1918.
Self-determination b. balanced obligations c. free trade d. freedom of the seas
What country experienced hyperinflation in 1923?
The US b. Germany c. France d. Soviet Union
The Smoot-Hawley Tariff was introduced by what country?
The Soviet Union b. Japan c. Britain d. the US
A just war can only be waged to
redress an injury b. avenge an insult c. take territory d. balance the system
The BRICS nations (Brazil, Russia, India, China, and South Africa) are meeting in South Africa to discuss the mutual interests of emerging market economies. These countries are quite deliberately trying to structure a viable alternative to the Bretton Woods Institutions. The BRICS are convinced that the domination of the US, Europe and Japan in the existing institutions compromises their growth possibilities Today they discussed the creation of a development bank to compete with the World Bank.
China and Vietnam had a military confrontation in the South China Sea a few days ago. The dispute revolves around territorial claims that have defied resolution. China’s claims are not consistent with the UN Law of the Seas Convention, but China refuses to have its claims mediated. Both sides are trying to downplay the military significance of the confrontation, but the situation remains quite tense.
Banks in Cyprus are scheduled to open on Thursday and security will be very tight as officials fear that frightened depositors will overwhelm the baking system. There is also a rising chorus of anger as rumors continue to swirl that rich depositors (Russians who used Cyprus as a tax shelter) were able to take much of their money out of the Cypriot banks due to the connivance of the Bank of Cyprus. The hint of massive corruption in the banking system could trigger violent protests on the island.
I posted several articles on recent provocative statements coming out of North Korea. The rhetoric has been unusually fierce over the last few days, including threats against Hawaii and Guam. Suspicions are that the fiery rhetoric is in response to changes in UN policies South Korean policies. Whether the rhetoric is indicative of a definite change in previous behavior remains to be seen. But it is clear that the states in East Asia, including China, are not at all sympathetic to North Korea.
There have been protests in Cyprus against the troika bailout plan. At this point it does not appear as if the plan is in jeopardy, but the Cypriot people are looking at the end of their main economic advantage–offshore banking for rich clients. Experts are predicting that the GDP of Cyprus may decline as much as 23% in the coming year if the financial industry in Cyprus collapses.
Violence against Muslims has erupted again in Burma. A few months ago, violence against Muslims known as Rohingyas broke out in one of provinces of Burma. The communal violence has been simmering for years, and the outbreak of violence is most likely correlated with the loosening of the power of the military. Dealing with the violence, however, has to be a top priority for the government.
Concerns about the Cyprus bank bailout continue to simmer. The new concern is that many people with deposits larger than 100,00 euro were able to take out their money before the capital controls went into force. If true, then the restructuring will not raise the $13 billion necessary. Cyprus had initially ordered its banks to open on Tuesday–that order has been rescinded and now the banks have to remain closed until Thursday. The Cyprus story is far from over.
Source: The Economist, 25 March 2013
A Palestinian protest camp set up to draw attention to Israeli settlements has been taken down by Israeli authorities. The protest has been going on and off for several months, but the most recent camp was set up specifically to draw attention during President Obama’s visit to Israel. Unfortunately, the peaceful protest drew very little attention from the media.
Stephen Walt has published a very intelligent blog post on the difference between realism and constructivism using President Obama’s trip to Israel as a case study. Definitely worth reading.
The leader of the Kurdistan Workers’ Party, Abdullah Ocalan, has called for a cease-fire with Turkey. The conflict between the Kurds and the TUrks has been going on for a very long time, but the modern phase of the conflict has lasted almost thirty years and claimed more than 40,000 lives. This step is an important one for Turkey as it struggles to claim regional hegemony in the Middle East. Much of the movement within the Kurdish population stems from the realignment of power between Iraq and its Kurds and Syria and its Kurds. Whether these changes can finally reach some stable equilibrium satisfactory to the Kurdish people remains to be seen, but this step is important.
A new party, highly critical of German membership in the European Union, has been steadily gaining power over recent months. The party, the Alternative for Germany Party, directly challenges Angela Merkel’s commitment to the EU, and its ascent has raised questions about how flexible Chancellor Merkel can be on the Cyprus issue (as well as the other bailouts in the eurozone). The Alternative for Germany Party mirrors the United Kingdom Independence party in England, which has a similar skepticism about the EU and which has also risen substantially in the polls recently. These stresses on the Union are making coherent policy-making in the economic crisis very difficult.
Tonight is the deadline for some sort of agreement on the banking crisis in Cyprus. There are rumors swirling through the blogosphere, none of which can be verified. We should know a little more in the morning, but I suspect that whatever agreements are reached will also be subject to considerable pressures that will inevitably make them tentative. What is certain is that the people of Cyprus are getting a very bad deal.
The New York Times interviewed several young people who were in the audience for President Obama’s speech in Israel. As I indicated in an earlier post, I thought Obama’s speech was brilliant. Reading the statements from the audience it is clear that he touched a genuine chord. Although Obama did not accomplish much in terms of specific changes in the situation in his trip, I think that he laid some very important seeds in the minds of the next generation. Never underestimate the power of ideas.
The melting of the polar ice cap has opened up new strategic possibilities for a number of countries, and the jockeying for territorial claims has been a fascinating exercise. But the recent Chinese moves in Iceland have been nothing short of surreal. A Chinese company, headed by a former official in the Communist Party, has been angling to buy/lease almost 100 square miles of wilderness in Iceland to build a golf course. High marks for creativity–Bismarck would have been proud.
I often feel as if the details of world politics are beyond human comprehension, and that the social sciences can never hope to be able to describe reality with the same precision as the natural sciences. But I take refuge in the fact that the natural sciences know even less than the social sciences. The European Space Agency has been able to determine the composition of the universe with astonishing precision with its new Planck telescope. According to the ESA here is what we know about the reality of the universe:
If I read the pie chart correctly, physics can explain about 4.9% of the universe. If you were to ask a physicist what dark matter is (26.8% of the universe) and what dark energy is (68.3% of the universe), you would get the honest answer: “We don’t know.” Ignorance loves company.
President Obama gave a very important speech in Israel today. There is much in the speech with which one could disagree–indeed, I doubt that anyone could give a speech on the Israeli-Palestinian conflict that would not elicit some disagreement. But there was a carefulness and soberness in the speech that deserves careful consideration. His defense of a viable Palestinian state and how necessary it is to the moral survival of Israel was incredibly powerful. Let us hope that others think deeply about his insight.
The banking situation in Cyprus continues to deteriorate, but the reaction of the world remains muted. There is the world of reality here (Cyprus is so small that its collapse will have very little effect) and a world of perception (the global banking system has been on the rocks since 2008 and Cyprus might be the last straw). How the world finally interprets the crisis will depend largely on how visible it becomes. If protests break out on the island, then people will become much more concerned than they are right now.
President Obama is in Israel right now. He received a warm welcome from Prime Minster Netanyahu, but a rather frosty reception from the Palestinians. There is rhetoric from the US side about the two-state solution to the Israeli-Palestinian impasses, but very little evidence that there are any new ideas or initiatives toward that end.
South Korea was hit by a rather extensive cyber attack that shut down TV stations and ATM machines throughout the nation. The attack was a “wiper” virus that essentially erases files, very similar to attacks on Saudi Arabian oil facilities last year. The South obviously suspects the North Koreans of launching the attack, but we will wait for further details before a determination is made. It is unclear what kind of response would be appropriate in such circumstances–North Korea lacks a similar vulnerability among its civilian population.
Many in Greece are applauding the Cypriot decision to reject the terms of the bank bailout offered by the Troika. This response is just one of the many ripple effects expected from the Cypriot decision. As Cyprus tries to formulate an alternative, many are speculating on whether Cyprus will turn to Russia for aid in return form military bases or for concessions on reputed natural gas fields off the coast of Cyprus. It will be interesting to see how the Turks will respond to this intrusion of Russia power.
24 prisoners at Guantanamo are on a prolonged hunger strike. The strike is a way of drawing attention to their plight: imprisonment without any clear charges or any specified legal processes leading to a determination of guilt or innocence. The prisoners at Guantanamo are casualties of the war on terror and the inability of the US government to figure out the legal processes by which to try them. The legal limbo is a serious violation of the human rights of the prisoners and a profound failure of the American commitment to the rule of law.
President Obama is scheduled to visit Israel and the first topic of conversation between Obama and Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu will be the Iranian nuclear program. Obama clearly does not wish to be put into a corner by Netanyahu, but the evidence suggests that Israel is moving closer to taking action on its own. The BBC has an interesting piece on Israeli calculations on the merits of a pre-emptive strike on Iran.
The Cypriot Parliament has rejected the Troika’s bailout offer–not a single member of Parliament voted in favor of the tax on depositors. It’s difficult to overestimate how serious the situation is: Cyprus’s banks are virtually insolvent and the banks deposits are 8 times larger than the entire GDP of Cyprus (due to the attractiveness of the country as a offshore tax haven and money launderer). The Parliament will likely make another offer, but any deal that involves another tax on deposits will be problematic. Then Germany will have to decide whether to continue to insist that depositors have to pay for the sins of their banks or chance Cyprus’s departure from the eurozone. The stakes are very high and no matter what happens, the ripples will spread far and wide.
As we continue the international debates about austerity vs. stimulus, we should all keep in mind that certain budget items remain sacrosanct. One of the special budget items is the F-35 Joint Strike Fighter plane currently being developed by Lockheed. The plane was first proposed in 2001 and, despite billions of dollars being spent on it, there are no operational planes currently in the air. Each of these planes is estimated to cost about $165 million, and over 2,000 of them are being proposed for the military. It is likely that over $400 billion will be spent on the planes.
The situation in Cyprus continues to unfold. The banking holiday has been extended until Thursday to avoid panic, but it’s not clear why: the tax has already been imposed on the deposits so withdrawing money will not save anyone a single dime. Many, however, are waking up to the fact that ordinary depositors are being asked to sacrifice in order to preserve Cyprus’s status as an offshore banking site for illicit Russian money. The troika is arguing that the tax is an extraordinary event, and one not to be repeated in any other banking system. We’ll see if the European publics believe them There was no run on any other banks in Europe today so calm may be the order of the day. On the other hand, you can listen to this very angry British taxi driver [WARNING: this chap has a very foul mouth–don’t listen to the video if there are others around you who might be offended]
Gender equality is a profound stimulus to economic development. Recent studies have indicated that the lack of equality in India has chopped off about 4% annually of the Indian GNP. For a country in which women have achieved a high degree of political success, the lack of gender equality among ordinary women in India is striking.
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