The European Central Bank, the European Union, and the International Monetary Fund (the “Troika” to those of you who have been following European economic affairs) has announced its terms for the bailout of the banking system of Cyprus. Cyprus is not a big economy so most observers did not think that the bailout terms would be highly consequential. But the Troika has decided that the bank depositors should share in the pain of the bailout and demanded that a 10% tax be levied on all savings accounts. Needless to say, the depositors are not pleased and there was a run on the ATMs of the banks today. Monday is a holiday and there is speculation that a banking holiday will be declared for Tuesday in order to prevent a run on the banks that could force some to collapse. The danger is not that Cypriot banks will fail, but that depositors in banks of other precarious countries (like Italy or Spain) could fear a similar tax in the future and will begin to pull their money out of those banks as well. The futures markets all over the world are roiling right now and it should be interesting on Monday morning when they open for real.
As I indicated yesterday, there are many who are analyzing the decision to go to war with Iraq ten years ago. The British are going through a similar bout of introspection, and the general consensus is that the then-Prime Minister, Tony Blair, did not do a very good job of threat assessment or war planning. There is very little positive assessment of the war in most of the post-mortems I have read. Nonetheless, there are reports surfacing that the CIA is drawing up contingency plans for drone strikes in Syria. Somehow, some lessons are almost impossible to learn.
Tapes from the Administration of Lyndon Johnson have been released that have left me absolutely dumbfounded. The Vietnam War was a central feature of my college life and I was strongly opposed to the war. There are certain moments that I remember well, one of which was the announcement by Johnson that he would not run again for the presidency in 1968. Apparently, however, he contemplated attending the Democratic Party Convention in 1968 when it was almost completely disrupted by protests to place his name in the nomination (which he likely would have received). The tapes also revealed that the Republican candidate, Richard Nixon, who ultimately won the election in 1968, sabotaged the Paris Peace negotiations between the US and North Vietnam because he feared that a successful peace agreement would prevent him from winning the election.
I’ve been studying world politics for most of my adult life, and I have analyzed many acts of treachery. But Nixon’s decision to prolong the war (and all the consequent deaths) so that he could win the election is perhaps the most despicable episode I’ve ever read about.
The Watson Institute at Brown University is one of the most creative and innovative think-tanks in the field of world politics. It recently published a very impressive report on the costs of the Iraq War, looking at not just the economic costs of the war, but the overall human costs. For anyone interested in thinking seriously about all the variables associated with waging war, the report is an excellent way to think about the hidden, as well as the obvious, concerns. Here is a link to the section on the economic costs: $3-4 trillion as of now.
We’ve been following the large list of protest movements in Europe this winter, trying to figure out if there are any common threads that unite them. We’re still looking, but we’re getting more insight into some of the specific protests. From Open Democracy, here’s a good analysis of what happened in Bulgaria last February that led to the collapse of the government.
The Egyptian Muslim Brotherhood has issued a statement opposing the declaration proposed by the U.N. Commission on the Status of Women. According to Reuters, “the Muslim Brotherhood warned the declaration would give girls sexual freedom, legalize abortion, provide teenagers with contraceptives, give equality to women in marriage and require men and women to share duties such as child care and chores.” It is unclear whether any agreement on any declaration could be achieved within the UN.
The EU is holding a summit meeting in Brussels over the direction the Union should take on the failing economic situation. There seems to be a growing chorus questioning the austerity programs that have been implemented over the last three years, but there are no signs that the principal proponent of that strategy, Germany, is interested in changing. We’ll keep an eye on the meeting to see how the debate unfolds.
Electricity usage is one of the most common metrics for measuring economic activity. But we can now see electric lights from space, and the changes in brightness over time can tell us a great deal about the rate of change in economic activity. The Atlantic has posted some stunning photos from space of especially dynamic areas in the world. And one dramatically non-dynamic area of the world–North Korea.
France has now joined Britain in urging arms sales to the Syrian rebels. It’s not clear how such a policy would end the violence more quickly–indeed, it might simply make the situation more desperate–but the world seems to think that the policy is justified. I would suggest that a stronger commitment to a diplomatic solution is more likely to succeed.
The World Bank has issued a report on the state of the Palestinian economy in the Occupied Territories and the conclusion of the report is that the economy is in very bad shape and that the policies of the Israeli occupation are making it virtually impossible for the economy to grow. The report argues that the occupation economic policies must be changed if the Palestinians are ever expected to enjoy self-sustaining economic growth. The report is highly unlikely to have any effect on Israeli policy at all. The report also coincides with President Obama’s visit to Israel and the growing skepticism that there is any hope for a lasting peace in the region.
One of the reasons why relations among neighbors in East Asia are often so hostile is that the citizens of each country very rarely know much about the history of conflict in the region. A specific case is Japan, and the BBC has a fascinating story about how Japanese school children learn the history of Japan’s actions in the region in the first half of the 20th century. Controlling history often is the best way to control the present.
The United Nations Commission on the Status of Women is struggling to finish off a declaration on the status of women globally which includes references to reproductive rights, LGBT rights, and sexual health. A consensus appears to be impossible on the document and Iran, Russia, and the Vatican are raising serious objections to the draft. It clearly is impossible to assert that the idea of women’s rights has achieved universal acceptance as of now.
The Asia Times ran a brilliant essay by Pepe Escobar on the situation in Europe. The essay is sharp, insightful, and very funny. It is a view from a rising power about the decline of a formerly dominant power, and, as such, should be taken with a grain of salt.
Indeed, one can zero-in on Italy as the canary in the coalmine for Europe. The recent elections settled nothing and new elections will more than likely be called soon. But the protest vote for Beppe Grillo and his 5 Star Movement is finally being taken more seriously as an index of very troubling discontent. There is clearly a deep level of withdrawal in the vote, and it suggests that the Italian people may be close to entertaining some more dramatic moves than those demanded by the Eu and the IMF. We’ll have to watch how the political sentiment shifts over the next few weeks.
As we pass the 10-year anniversary of the American invasion of Iraq, there have been several interesting essays on the war. Joseph Nye of Harvard gives his assessment of the war: far more critical of the war than most would have expected from a former member of the Defense Department.
As the world struggles to find alternatives to hydrocarbon fuels, many countries find themselves increasing their use of the traditional fuels in order to stimulate economic growth. The use of coal, for example, continues to soar in both China and India. The consequences of their consumption is compromising their ability to enhance the quality of life of their citizens. The shortage of electricity, however, in certain parts of India is crippling the economic growth of the country.
Afghan President Karzai leveled some astonishing charges against the US military while US Secretary of Defense Hagel visited the country. Karzai accused the US of colluding with the Taliban so that US forces could stay in Afghanistan. He also accused US troops of harassing university students. While it is always very important to take every charge seriously, it is hard to imagine that Hagel was trying to figure out ways to keep US troops in Afghanistan. It seems very clear that the goodwill trip did not go as planned.
Sectarian violence broke out in Pakistan after several Christian residences were torched after an accusation of blasphemy. The Christian community in Pakistan has long felt under pressure, and the growing intolerance against all Pakistanis who are not Sunni is a worrying trend.
The candidate who won the largest number of votes in the recent Italian election was Beppe Grillo, a comedian turned politican, who launched a political party called the Five Star Movement. He is clearly a showman and wants to shake up Italian politics. But he is also someone who asks some very serious questions. Here’s an example of his analysis of the economic situation in Europe.
A new study published in Science suggests that the world has gone past the point of no return on climate change. The study suggests that the rate of temperature change today is 50 times faster than it has been been during the entire span of human civilization. Such a rate would increase the temperature of the planet by 7-11 degrees F by the end of the century, a level to which most of humanity would find difficult to adapt.
Uhuru Kenyatta was declared the victor in Kenya, winning just a bit more than the 50% required. His rival, Raila Odinga, will contest the election, citing many anomalies in the balloting. The stage is thus set for another replay of the violence in 2007 after a similar contested election. Kenyatta is facing charges of crimes against humanity by the International Cirminal COurt which will make diplomatic relations with the new government somewhat delicate and difficult.
Incoming Chinese president Xi Jinping’s first foreign trip will be to Africa, signaling the importance China attaches to that region. China has developed strong economic ties with several African countries with raw materials and agricultural trade. China has also purchased large tracts of African land to use to grow food. Many are concerned that the Chinese role in African economies is not fully in African development interests.
China apparently holds the dubious distinction of having the Parliament with the richest members in the world. There are 83 billionaires in the National People’s Congress. By contrast, there are no billionaires in the US Congress. I wonder how discussions concerning income inequality will be conducted in that forum.
The past year saw the the second-greatest annual rise in CO2 emissions ever recorded. It is growing increasingly unlikely that we will be able to prevent an increase of greenhouse gases that will alter substantially the slimate of the earth. The rise is not a surprise but it is disheartening given the attention to the problem: one would hope for a different outcome.
North Korea has responded quite negatively to the sanctions imposed on the regime after its third nuclear test. The sanctions are quite severe, but unlikely to change North Korean behavior. In response, the North Koreans said that it would scrap the armistice with South Korea and was prepared to launch a pre-emptive nuclear strike against the United States. The rhetoric was unusually strong, but probably does not signal any clear intention by North Korea to actually initiate armed conflict. As always, we will have to see how the Chinese react to this rhetoric.
Professor Stephen Walt, one of the most perceptive analysts of world politics alive today, has written a very good short essay on the 10 year anniversary of the US invasion of Iraq. His analysis is firmly rooted in a realist framework, and is testimony to the continued relevance of that framework to contemporary politics.
James Fallows has posted some environmental readings from China, pointing out how dangerous the pollution levels in China actually are. One should view these data from a global perspective: the problems that the Chinese people face from environmental degradation will be faced eventually by everyone in the world–the pollution will not remain in China. It is in everyone’s interest to help China reduce its pollution.
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