The British International Institute for Strategic Studies (IISS) publishes an annual review of global military spending, and this year’s edition shows a pronounced shift in spending from the NATO countries to Asian countries. The US remains the largest spender by far, but China is quickly catching up to the US. The US still spends more than the next 14 countries combined.
The United Kingdom Independence Party is a fringe party in Great Britain that staked out a strong anti-European Union position. It has succeeded to win enough votes to have members in the British Parliament, and one of those Members has issued a special code of conduct for Muslims in Britain called the “charter of Muslim understanding.” He wants all Muslims to sign the charter, which includes a demand that Muslims “sign a declaration rejecting violence and says parts of the Qur’an that promote ‘violent physical Jihad’ should be regarded as ‘inapplicable, invalid and non-Islamic’.” The charter is another example of the anti-Muslim sentiment that continues to grow in many parts of the world.
Turmoil continues in the economies of the emerging markets, and the worries associated with that turmoil are definitely affecting the stock markets across the planet. It is always difficult to tell when anxiety might turn to panic, and The Atlantic has a good essay on how to interpret the concerns on whether the emerging markets could initiate a broader economic crisis.
Between 2008-09 there was a very violent civil war in Sri Lanka as the government battled a separatist movement. The Tamils are a minority group in Sri Lanka which is dominated by the majority Sinhalese population. The civil war had simmered for many years, and matters came to a head in 2009 when the government made a sustained push to isolate and destroy the Tamil militants. The estimated dead in this military operation ranged between 40-70,000, and the last push in the very northern part of the island was particularly brutal. A team of international lawyers has just charged the government with war crimes associated with the operation, and the US has indicated that it would support a proposal to investigate the war crimes charges.
A new strain of influenza has been discovered in China. The international community has grown increasingly sensitive to the emergence of new diseases, as disease mutations can have devastating effects on the human population. The so-called “Spanish” flu in 1918 actually killed more people than were killed in World War I. One of the consequences of globalization is that the transmission vectors for new diseases have become significantly more numerous and rapid. When new strains of the flu emerge, disease control centers all across the globe become quite vigilant.
The Afghanistan Parliament has passed a law which would have the effect of vitiating any legal protections of women who suffer domestic abuse. The law would ban relatives of those accused of domestic crimes from testifying in any criminal proceeding. In Afghan society, the only witnesses to domestic abuse would most likely be members of the husband’s family. If President Karzai signs the bill into law, it will unravel much of the progress that has been made in recent years to create legal protections for women.
Thailand’s election was completed today, but it appears as if 6 million voters were not able to vote, or chose not to vote. The sizable number of people not voting makes it difficult for Yingluck Shinawatra to claim the legitimacy she had sought in calling for an early election: no one could possibly claim to have a mandate from such a distorted poll. The outcome leaves the Tahi government in a state of limbo, a result that is perhaps manageable, but one that will likely frighten foreign investors. Given the fear that exists in other emerging markets in the world, the uncertainty could have financial consequences for the country.
An election is scheduled for 5 April in Afghanistan. The election will replace President Karzai who constitutionally cannot run for a third term. Outsiders will be watching the election carefully. First, to see if the election can be carried out in a peaceful manner given the opposition of the Taliban to the current structure of power. Second, to see whether a candidate who might prove to be more accommodating to retaining US military advisers and aid will be likely to win. President Karzai has made it virtually impossible for the US to maintain any presence in Afghanistan after the pullout of combat troops later on in this year. But a complete pullout of all American support would probably prove to be highly destabilizing to the country.
There was quite the diplomatic dust-up between the US and Israel that had a touch of the surreal on Sunday. US Secretary of State Kerry referred to the growing movement to isolate Israel because of its policies toward the Palestinians as a possible threat if the current peace negotiations fail. The statement was meant as a descriptive one, and a prediction based upon Kerry’s sense of the growing frustration globally over the slow pace of the talks. The Israelis, however, interpreted the statement as a veiled threat by Kerry and responded quite harshly to his comments. I suspect that the Israeli sensitivity to the issue is based upon a genuine fear that the move to isolate Israel is taken seriously by many who have previously supported Israeli policies.
The Thai elections have already begun, and there has been a great deal of violence associated with early balloting. The opposition has vowed to boycott the elections, and forced the closure of many election stations. A large number of police and military have been deployed, but it is difficult to imagine any reasonable outcome to these elections. The political path forward for Thailand is very murky, and its economic situation seems to be suffering from the ambiguity.
As Russia and the West square off in Munich over Ukraine, one cannot help but be sobered by the possibility of a revival of the Cold War. The Global Post has a succinct overview of the Russian interests in keeping Ukraine in its sphere of influence.
A new phrase has been introduced into the vocabulary of political economy: “the Fragile Five.” These are the large emerging economies of Brazil, India, Indonesia, South Africa and Turkey which has recently been rocked by the end of the policy of quantitative easing in the US. These five countries are large enough to make a big difference in the health of the global economy, but not large enough on their own to withstand shocks from the largest economies. Dani Rodrik is an economist with a long-standing critique of globalization and sympathy for the developing economies. Nonetheless, he has co-authored an essay which criticizes the inability of the Fragile Five to forge a path different from that determined by traditional neo-liberal globalization.
At the Munich Security Conference, the Ukrainian opposition asked for assistance from the European Union and the US. The violations of human rights committed by the Ukrainian government against the protesters are certainly serious enough to warrant sanction, but the request places the Western countries in an awkward situation. They most definitely want to show support for the protesters, but they also wish to avoid giving Russian President Putin an excuse to claim outside interference in Ukrainian internal affairs.
The Syrian peace negotiations in Geneva ended today in abject failure. None of the parties seemed willing to engage in any meaningful dialogue, and, apparently, there were complications with the destruction of Syria’s chemical weapons. While the negotiations were being conducted, nearly 2,000 Syrian civilians died. The international community needs to apply more pressure on the parties involved.
South Hadley and Western Massachusetts seem to be moving out of a bitterly cold period of winter (let’s hope the sub-zero temperatures don’t return). In contrast, Brazil and Australia, in the southern hemisphere, are going through a brutal summer. The summer in Brazil is damaging an already fragile economy, leading to greater fears for the overall economic health of the emerging economies.
The bloodshed in the Central African Republic continues, as rival militias continue to carry out atrocities. The Seleka, a Muslim group, has been attacking Christian communities for the last few months, but the tide of violence has recently shifted and the Seleka have left many of their established positions in the country. The retreat of the Seleka has left Muslim communities exposed to extreme violence carried out by Christian groups. Apparently, the French humanitarian intervention has failed to stem the violence, but also seems to have shifted the balance of power in the country.
The documents leaked by Edward Snowden continue to embarrass the US Government. The latest batch of leaked memos show that the National Security Agency (NSA) spied on delegate conversations at the Copenhagen climate talks in 2009. These discussions could hardly be considered absolutely essential to the national security of the country. Interestingly, the revelations seemed not to shock many of the delegates, who simply assumed that the Americans (and the Chinese) were spying on them.
Ukrainian President Yanukovich went on sick leave today, claiming an illness prevented him from carrying out his daily duties. His absence leaves Ukraine essentially rudderless, and it is not clear how either the government or the protesters can negotiate while he is indisposed. The power vacuum is perilous: the Ukrainian economy looks increasingly fragile, and outsiders (the IMF, Russia, or perhaps the EU) will be reluctant to help the country out if they believe that the government is incapable of implementing any necessary reforms.
The Ukrainian Parliament has voted an amnesty bill for protesters on the condition that they leave the government buildings they have occupied. The bill passed with government support, but no opposition members voted for it, arguing that it was a blackmail bill. Indeed, the protesters have voted to continue occupying buildings until the government falls. It does appear, however, that the government has decided that a more conciliatory approach is necessary. Forbearance by a threatened government does not typically last very long.
Niall Ferguson is a controversial writer, and he has stirred up quite a hornet’s nest in a recent essay arguing that Britain should not have opposed Germany in the First World War. There will be much written in this, the hundred year anniversary, of World War I. Ferguson argued a strong realist position in the essay when he asserted that defending Belgium’s neutrality was not in Britain’s national interest in 1914. Given the heroic sacrifices of the British people in that war, it is unlikely that many will look kindly upon an assertion that the war was a mistake.
The Ukrainian Prime Minster, Mykola Azarov, has resigned from the government. This move is the first major political victory of the Ukrainian protest movement against the government of President Yanukovich, but it unlikely to defuse the crisis. After all the violence associated with the protests, the opposition is not likely to accept any outcome other than the end of the Yanukovich government. In the meantime, Russian President Vladimir Putin has warned the European Union not to intrude upon Ukrainian internal affairs.
The Turkish Central Bank has raised interest rates to very high levels in an attempt to restore confidence in the Turkish currency after its rather precipitous decline in recent days. The increases were far greater than most economists had expected, and it achieved the desired effect of stabilizing the lira, the Turkish currency. However, the interest rates will almost certainly throttle economic activity in the country over the next few months, and an economic decline could bring greater instability in the long run. Turkey is desperately trying to forge a path between short- and long-run imperatives.
Japan is not the only country rethinking its military policy in the face of a more restrained US presence in world affairs: Germany is also thinking about changing its postwar policy. The rethinking does not reflect the views of the German Chancellor, Angela Merkel, who is more likely to prefer a more subdued role for Germany. But Germany, like all other European states, is well aware of the power vacuum that is being generated by the US’s move toward a less ambitious foreign presence.
The Egyptian military council has told Field Marshal Abdel Fattah al-Sisi that he can run for President in Egypt’s upcoming election. al-Sisi was responsible for the overthrow of Mohammed Morsi, the Egyptian President after the overthrow of Hosni Mubarek in 2011, and he will almost certainly win the election. The political system of Egypt has been in near constant turmoil after the coup that overthrew Morsi and most Egyptians look to al-Sisi as the most reliable protector against a return to power by the Muslim Brotherhood. We will have to see if the election of al-Sisi will be accompanied by a decline in the protection of human rights.
The situation in Ukraine remains somewhat murky. Anti-government protesters have ended their occupation of some government buildings after a threat by the government to declare a state of emergency (which, presumably, would authorize the Ukrainian military to intervene). The EU has demanded the repeal of the recent laws passed against protesting, and it appears as if President Yanukovich has invited opposition leaders to join the government (an offer that was spurned). So there is some movement, but the direction of that movement is still uncertain.
Many international disputes are settled peacefully but peaceful resolutions rarely make the news. In a boundary dispute that goes back to the 1880s, Chile and Peru have accepted an international agreement that settles the maritime boundaries of the two states. It appears as if both sides will abide by the agreement, and the settlement addresses one of the last lingering boundary issues in Latin America.
Protesters in Thailand have been agitating for the last few months demanding the resignation of Prime Minister Yingluck Shinawatra. The protests have grown increasingly violent as the anti-government movement believes that the Shinawatra government is corrupt and does not represent the interests of the urban population. The death of a prominent anti-government protester may force the government to cancel the scheduled election on 2 February. The protest movement does not believe that any election held under the auspices of the Shinawatra government can be fair.
NASA has released a video showing the changes in the temperature of the planet over a period of six decades. The evidence seems conclusive that temperatures have risen during that period. The video, however, does not give us any information about why the temperature has increased.
An historic agreement has been reached between the government of the Philippines and Muslim insurgents located primarily in the southern part of the country. Violence between the primarily Christian north and the Islamic south is long-standing, and the new agreement gives substantial autonomy to the southern province of Mindanao. This agreement is part of a process that was initiated in October of 2012. It is probably too soon to claim that the agreement has solved the dispute, but it is a substantial step forward.
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