Protests continue in Venezuela, as supporters and opponents of Venezuela’s President, Nicolas Maduro, faced off in the capital city of Caracas. Maduro took over after the death of Hugo Chavez, but has failed to attain Chavez’s popularity. The economic situation in Venezuela has deteriorated with high inflation and currency devaluation, and unemployment in the country is quite high. Unless the situation stabilizes soon, the likelihood of a government breakdown is highly likely.
The southern coast of England has been wracked by incessant storms, and many suspect that climate change is a bog factor explaining the persistence of the storms. High British officials are now calling climate change a matter of national security, bringing it squarely into the realm of foreign policy. US Secretary of State Kerry is slated to give a major speech on climate change while he is visiting Indonesia. And it appears that the current bad weather on the US east coast may also be related to a change in the Jet Stream which may persist for many years. Quite depressing.
A United Nations panel is set to release a report that accuses North Korea of Crimes Against Humanity. The report is sure to generate controversy, but it is unclear how far legal action can be pursued. The Chinese will certainly refuse to allow the Security Council to refer the matter to the International Criminal Court. The North Korean regime will not respond well to this official criticism.
The Shanghai Academy of Social Sciences released a report that ranked Beijing second to last in an environmental ranking of 40 global cities. The report stated that Beijing “is near a level that is no longer livable for human beings.” Internet censors in China almost immediately blocked all references to the report, denying Chinese citizens the ability to assess the environmental health of their capital city.
The Syrian peace talks in Geneva have reached an impasse, and have nearly broken down in mutual recriminations between Russia and the United States. The division is so deep that no progress was made even on minimal humanitarian aid to the beleaguered Syrian citizens. No side can be proud of the complete breakdown of the talks.
Hindu nationalists in India have forced a publisher to destroy all copies of a book highly critical of Hinduism. The decision comes as national elections near and polls indicate that the Hindu nationalist party, the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP), is leading in the polls. The decision is also a blow to the liberal tradition of freedom of expression. The rise of ethnic nationalism is likely to amplify the cleavages that already exist in Indian politics.
Kazakhstan has announced a 20% devaluation of its currency (the Tenge), effectively reducing savings in the country by that amount in an unanticipated move. Needless to say, the move caused a great deal of unrest and many stores closed in order to reprice all their merchandise. But in the capital city, Almaty, the military was mobilized to handle any protests. Here is a video tape from the city demonstrating in vivid detail the political economy of a crisis. The crisis in not likely to spread to other countries, but it will certainly raise more fears about the state of the global economy. In Venezuela, deteriorating economic conditions have led to a long string of protests, and in the most recent protest, three protesters were killed bu government forces.
Italian Prime Minister Enrico Letta has resigned, shifting the government to a center-left orientation as it seems likely that Matteo Renzi will replace him as Prime Minister. This government will be the third in the last year for Italy as the turmoil associated with a deteriorating economic situation continues to worsen. Renzi will definitely be less compliant with the European Union policies pushing Italy toward austerity, and a confrontation with the EU is almost inevitable.
The European Union has announced plans to send a humanitarian military mission to the Central African Republic to help stem the violence that has led to the deaths of thousands. There are currently French forces there (and US forces nearby but not in the CAR) but the French want to replace by a genuinely multilateral force. The plan is to set up a small protected enclave in the capital city of Bangui, but there is as of now no firm timetable for the intervention. We will see how rapidly the EU can organize itself in the face of this tragedy.
Some news is only reported by certain media outlets. The Russian Times has published an article pointing out that The World Press Freedom Index has ranked the US in 46th place out of 180 countries. The Index is maintained by Reporters Without Borders and the main explanation for the poor ranking of the US is based on the Manning, Snowden and NSA intelligence leaks. Few US media outlets have reported this news (which obviously makes them look bad), but Americans who take pride in the 1st Amendment to the Constitution should take note.
Progress is being made in building sources of renewable energy. China is scheduled to install 12,000 megawatts of photovoltaic power in 2014, the largest increase in history. The US and Japan follow in second and third place. These strides give hope to possible reductions in the use of carbon as an energy source, but there is still a long way to go. The US, for example, still uses coal for about 40% of its electric generating capacity. Mount Holyoke College and the University of Massachusetts get much of their electricity from the Mt. Tom Electrical Plant in Holyoke, MA. The plant is located along the Connecticut River.
Much of the coal for this plant comes from West Virginia. To get an idea of how this coal is mined and delivered so that we can turn on the lights in South Hadley and Amherst, check out this slideshow of Mountaintop Removal Coal Mining. It will make you think twice the next time you leave the lights on.
It is impossible to understand the economic policies being pursued in different states in Europe without an appreciation of the German attitude toward inflation. Germany under Angela Merkel (and every other post World War II Chancellor) has been a forceful advocate for fiscal discipline because of the horrific experience of hyperinflation in Germany in 1923. It is difficult to imagine Germany sponsoring any policies that might allow high rates of inflation to occur.
For the first time the founding of the People’s Republic of China in 1949, formal talks have been held between the PRC and the breakaway province of Taiwan. In 1949, the Kuomintang leaders of China fled the mainland and set up a government in exile on the island of Taiwan. For a long period of time, Taiwan held the Permanent Seat on the UN Security Council reserved for China, largely through the backing of Britain, France, and the United States. That policy ended in 1972, when the US recognized that there was only one China and that the PRC was the government of China. Nonetheless, Taiwan has remained aloof from the PRC, and a constant irritant to normal diplomatic relations in the region. The opening of formal talks holds out the promise that a reunification might be possible.
An unknown group has launched rocket attacks at German targets in Greece. The group claims that its attack are targeting the “German capitalist machine” in protest against the austerity measures imposed on Greece because of its budget crisis. Germany has pushed hard for very stringent economic measures as a way to solve the budget crisis, but many in Greece believe that those measures are primarily designed to protect the loans given to Greece by German banks. It is not clear how support this armed group has within Greece, but the escalation of violence suggests an intensification of the anxiety in Greece.
The American media coverage of the Olympics has been weird. Some outlets seem to think that the Cold War is still going on (or, perhaps, would like to see it revived). There are, to be sure, policy differences between Russia and the US, but the silent glee at every snafu in the Games is juvenile and in bad taste. Jason Jones does a great job of skewering American stereotypes of Russia.
For the first time, the United States has explicitly rejected China’s claims to the South China Sea as measured by what China calls the “Nine Dash Line.” No other country has accepted the Chinese claim and the claim itself is inconsistent with the United Nations’ Law of the Seas Convention. China, however, asserts that the claim has been made by China since the founding of the Chinese People’s Republic in 1949. It is doubtful that the US rejection represents any change of position, but it remains to be seen how the competing claims to the sea will be settled.
The Obama Administration is debating whether it should kill an American citizen living abroad who has been working on behalf of radicals who wish to do harm to the United States. It is rare for the US to kill a citizen without due process of law, a right guaranteed to all citizens by the Constitution. Obviously, the ability to pass summary judgments against a citizen without a court hearing is a problematic power. However, the contrary argument is that the US has a right to protect itself against those who wish to inflict harm on its citizens. The critical question is how significant the protocols are against possible abuse of power.
The US is currently going through a rather quiet, but nonetheless sustained, debate about whether it should reduce its commitments abroad. Many believe that such a move is inevitable, given the costs of engagement abroad and the willingness of the American people to suppor a world role for the US. Joseph Nye, however, argues that the US should not return to what he terms an “isolationist” policy.
As the Olympics are celebrated in Sochi, we would do well to remember the history of Russian control over that region. It was once part of the Ottoman Empire, and Russian expansion to the Black Sea generated significant tensions, not only between the adherents of Islam and Russian Orthodox Christianity, but also among the great powers. Sochi itself was the site of an atrocity as Russian troops pushed for the expulsion of what were then termed the Circassian peoples. The hostility that we witness today between the separatists from Chechnya and Dagestan and Russian control from Moscow has its roots in that struggle.
In a stunning vote, Swiss voters narrowly approved tougher limits on immigration. Nearly 20% of the 8 million Swiss are immigrants, and major corporations fought hard against the proposed restrictions. But the Swiss People’s Party was able to mobilize enough voters to pass the measure. It is too soon to see how the restrictions will be implemented, but the decision places the Swiss in stark opposition to the policies of the European Union. Switzerland is not a member of the EU, but a very large percentage of its exports go to the EU and there likely will be some retaliation against the measure. The vote, however, does measure the degree of anti-immigrant hostility in the world today.
Iran has reached an agreement with the International Atomic Energy Agency that has far-reaching consequences for the Non-Proliferation Treaty. It has agreed to allow the IAEA to explore non-nuclear dimensions of Iranian military policy, specifically Iran’s research on non-nuclear detonation devices. The move will go far to allay some of the fears about Iran’s ambitions and its willingness to allow inspections of this sort suggests its strong interest in reaching some accommodation with the United Nations.
Speigel has published a fascinating short essay on how the end of World War I lead to World War II. The essay brings up a host of pertinent issues, but offers them from a fresh and well=considered perspective. The essay places the blame for World War II squarely on the United States: “Wilson drafted a new world order, in which all nations were granted a right to self-determination. But when it came to stepping into America’s new role as a hegemon, Congress withdrew its support by forcing the president to agree to a strict policy of nonintervention.” I am not sure that the decision of the US explains the vindictiveness of the French in 1918 or the aggressiveness of Hitler, but the reluctance of the US to ensure peace in Europe was undoubtedly a factor.
An aid convoy to the city of Homs in Syria came under intense fire and the humanitarian mission was aborted. Thus, what would have been the only tangible outcome to the peace talks in Geneva failed. The talks are rescheduled to begin again this week, but the hopes for progress seem negligible at best. The fighting in other areas of Syria continued unabated during the three day ceasefire.
When politicians use the word “Munich” they are typically calling for a more robust military and diplomatic position in world affairs; Munich is a code for policies that suggest weakness invites aggression. Historical metaphors are always dangerous. History never repeats itself and the differences between two historical circumstances usually overwhelm superficial similarities. Many, however, use the word Munich to describe the tepid response of the world to Chinese claims in the South China Sea. And at least one country, the Philippines, is concerned that the Chinese are getting emboldened by the lack of a response to its claims in the region.
Bosnia has entered its third day of street protests over unemployment and government corruption. The country has been relatively quiescent since the brutal wars of 1992-95, but the peace has been uneasy and unstable because many political issues were left unresolved. The protests reflect that unease, and have likely been precipitated by the overall slowdown in economic activity in Europe. The fear is that these protests could re-ignite the animosities of the earlier period. The protests should also be viewed in the context of the other protests in Europe against the economic situation in many countries.
Muslims are fleeing the Central African Republic, and Christians are celebrating their departure. It appears as if the humanitarian intervention by France has had little effect on the violence in the country and it does not seem as if the Muslims are receiving any protection at all.
China has opened a memorial hall in Harbin in honor of Ahn Jung-geun, an independence activist who assassinated Hirobumi Ito in 1909. At that time Korea was a protectorate (colony) of Japan, and Ito was the Japanese Governor of the protectorate. Ito had served a Japanese Prime Minister and was a highly regarded political figure. The Chinese and Koreans regard Ahn Jung-geun as a hero; the Japanese regard him as a terrorist. The memorial is part of the complex public relations campaign being waged between China and Japan. The danger is that the campaign is stoking nationalist sentiments in both countries.
Tensions over Ukraine between the US, the European Union, and Russia took a rather bizarre turn as a US State Department official’s comments about the diplomatic efforts to resolve the crisis in Ukraine were intercepted and broadcast over YouTube. Russia seized upon the video to argue that the US was interfering in the internal affairs of Ukraine, thereby escalating the stakes in the outcome of the struggle–it is no longer about an internal matter for Ukraine, it is now to some observers a struggle for control over the foreign policy of Ukraine.
The collapse of the talks about Syria in Geneva was a terrible tragedy for the people of Syria. One way for the talks to restart and perhaps proceed more productively would be to invite Iran to join the talks. The UN initially invited Iran, but rescinded the invitation after the US objected. The Voice of America has published a very cogent op-ed that argues that the US should reverse its opposition and allow Iran to join the next stage of talks which is scheduled to begin in a few days.
Google Earth has produced a new program that allows people to view local temperatures over the last few decades. I encourage everyone to play around with the new program–it’s easy to use and shows an incredible amount of information. Unfortunately, it also shows that local temperatures have clearly increased. Obviously, the program does not explain why the temperature has increased, but the reality of higher temperatures is hard to deny.
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