World Politics News   Articles for World Politics Course

The rules governing recognition of a secessionist movement are somewhat murky.  The right of self-determination is well-recognized, but is constrained by whether other states in the system believe that self-determination is really the motive for a new state.  That constraint is necessary because there are other possible interpretations of an independence movement, such as external support for independence that overrides what the people in the new state actually want; in short, possible imperial actions. Such was the case in the independence of Kosovo in 2008.  In the West, Kosovar independence was necessary because of the fear of Serbian hostility to the people of Kosovo which might have resulted in crimes against humanity (occasioned by the violence that characterized the fight against Bosnia by the Serbs in the 1990s).  Many states now recognize Kosovar independence, but Kosovo is not a member of the United Nations.  The referendum in Crimea is not, however, a vote for independence–it is a vote on whether Crimea should rejoin Russia.  So there will not be a “means test” on the vote.  States will not withdraw their recognition of Russia because of the referendum and they will not recognize Crimea as an independent state.

The early results from the Crimean election indicate strong support for secession.  According to the BBC, 95.5% of the voters voted to join Russia.  Now the matter goes to the Russian Duma to decide whether to accept Crimea into the Russian Federation.  While the outcome of the election is clear, what is not clear is what percentage of the Crimean population voted.  The Tatars said they would not participate in the election, and we don’t know how many non-Russian Ukrainians may have boycotted the election as well.  Those numbers will suggest how legitimate the election actually was.

Austerity policies generally affect taxes and government spending.   In Greece, however, austerity policies imposed by the IMF, the EU, and the European Central Bank have forced the government to consider selling historic national sites.  One can imagine how Americans would react to a demand from an international organization to sell the Statue of Liberty, or how the French would react to a demand to sell the Eiffel Tower.  The loss of heritage sites may be the political last straw for many Greeks.

Most analysts believe that the referendum in Crimea tomorrow will favor union with Russia.  Russia has already occupied Crimea, so the vote is in many respects pro forma.  The question now is to determine how much Russia will gain from the move.  Reports of scattered fighting in other parts of Ukraine suggest that Russia may have additional objectives, but much depends on how easily Crimea can be assimilated into Russia and how the West responds to the takeover in the long run.  Russia vetoed a UN Security Council resolution declaring the referendum invalid.   Interestingly, China abstained on the resolution.

One of the interesting dimensions of the large number of protests in the world is that the governments threatened by the protests almost invariably blame “Western powers” for the turmoil.  The charge is often made by autocratic governments that believe that their legitimacy is not accepted by the liberal powers.  This growing divide between the established and the emerging powers is a destabilizing element in the emerging world order.

Israel and the group, Islamic Jihad, have been exchanging military attacks in the Gaza and southern Israel.  The Islamic Jihad, the group firing rockets into Israel, is a group in the Gaza which competes for political control with Hamas.  Israel, however, holds Hamas responsible for any activity in the Gaza which threatens Israel.  Right now, the exchanges seem to be limited to tit-for-tat, but there is always the danger that violence might escalate.

The rhetoric over the Crimean referendum has become incredibly heated–almost to the point of incomprehension.  The Asia Times has published as essay by Pepe Escobar who is usually a very articulate critic of US policy.  There are parts of the essay which are very insightful, but also parts that are incoherent:

Would the Khaganate of Nulands [a reference to the Mongol Golden Horde rule in the region (1241-1259) conjoined with a reference to Victoria Nulands, a US State Department official] gang in Washington have the balls to force Obama to sanction “communist China” because they illegally occupy Tibet and Xinjiang, without the consent of their original Tibetan and Uighur inhabitants, which will never be offered even the dream of a referendum?

The interesting thing about Escobar’s analysis is that no one in their right mind believes that China would allow a secessionist referendum in either Xinjiang or Tibet.  Perhaps if that possibility were more genuine in the world some would take the possibility of such a referendum in Crimea more seriously.  With such wild rhetoric flying around, it is difficult to keep a clear head.

NASA’s Goddard Space Flight Center has published a study on the historical patterns of the rise and fall of civilizations that concludes that our current industrial civilization is likely to experience a similar pattern. The study identifies the critical variables that may lead to the collapse of a civilization: Population, Climate, Water, Agriculture, and Energy.  In many respects, the conclusions are remarkably similar to the conclusions of the Limits to Growth study conducted in the early 1970s by Dennis and Donella Meadows.

The International Covenant on Civil and Political Rights (ICCPR) requires a review of all signatories every five years.  The US signed the Treaty in 1992 and 2014 is one of its review years.  Its record on human rights was sharply criticized by the UN panel for a variety of human rights failings.  The panel cited the US for human rights abuses that included “everything from detention without charge at Guantánamo, drone strikes and NSA surveillance, to the death penalty, rampant gun violence and endemic racial inequality.”  The panel is not empowered to impose any sanctions on states, but the US record is humiliating to a country that prides itself on its human rights protections.

The Russian Ambassador to the UN, Vitaly Churkin, vigorously defended Crimea’s right to hold a referendum on whether Crimea should join with Russia.  The Russian position is that the referendum is an exercise in the right of self-determination.  There is some legitimacy to this position, but it is hard to accept uncritically as long as there are Russian troops positioned within Crimea.  One should ask a simple counterfactual question: How would Russian respond to a proposal for a referendum in Chechnya?

The CIA hacked into the Senate computers?  I’m shocked!
The Jon Stewart Show

Christiane Amanpour of CNN interviewed the former Five College Professor of International Relations and current President of UNICEF, Anthony Lake, on the desperate situation of Syria’s children.   One cannot emphasize strongly enough how urgent this matter is.

Western powers are increasing the pressure on Russia as the date for the referendum in Crimea nears.  The referendum only asks two questions, and the second is egregiously misleading.

According to a format of the ballot paper, published on the parliament’s website, the first question will ask: “Are you in favour of the reunification of Crimea with Russia as a part of the Russian Federation?”

The second asks: “Are you in favour of restoring the 1992 Constitution and the status of Crimea as a part of Ukraine?”

The 1992 Constitution was annulled by the 1994 Budapest Memorandum, signed by Russia, the US, and Great Britain.  Note the phrasing “existing borders of Ukraine.”  The open-endedness of the 1992 Constitution, a contingency created because of the incredible ambiguities of the collapse of the Soviet Union in 1991, is not an option.  Russia agreed in 1994 that it was no longer an option.

The United States of America, the Russian Federation, and the United Kingdom of Great Britain and Northern Ireland,

Welcoming the accession of Ukraine to the Treaty on the Non-Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons as a non-nuclear-weapon State,

Taking into account the commitment of Ukraine to eliminate all nuclear weapons from its territory within a specified period of time,

Noting the changes in the world-wide security situation, including the end of the Cold War, which have brought about conditions for deep reductions in nuclear forces.

Confirm the following:

 The United States of America, the Russian Federation, and the United Kingdom of Great Britain and Northern Ireland, reaffirm their commitment to Ukraine, in accordance with the principles of the CSCE Final Act, to respect the Independence and Sovereignty and the existing borders of Ukraine.

The United States of America, the Russian Federation, and the United Kingdom of Great Britain and Northern Ireland, reaffirm their obligation to refrain from the threat or use of force against the territorial integrity or political independence of Ukraine, and that none of their weapons will ever be used against Ukraine except in self-defense or otherwise in accordance with the Charter of the United Nations.

The United States of America, the Russian Federation, and the United Kingdom of Great Britain and Northern Ireland, reaffirm their commitment to Ukraine, in accordance with the principles of the CSCE Final Act, to refrain from economic coercion designed to subordinate to their own interest the exercise by Ukraine of the rights inherent in its sovereignty and thus to secure advantages of any kind.

The United States of America, the Russian Federation, and the United Kingdom of Great Britain and Northern Ireland, reaffirm their commitment to seek immediate United Nations Security Council action to provide assistance to Ukraine, as a non-nuclear-weapon State Party to the Treaty on the Non-Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons, if Ukraine should become a victim of an act of aggression or an object of a threat of aggression in which nuclear weapons are used.

The United States of America, the Russian Federation, and the United Kingdom of Great Britain and Northern Ireland, reaffirm, in the case of the Ukraine, their commitment not to use nuclear weapons against any non-nuclear-weapon State Party to the Treaty on the Non-Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons, except in the case of an attack on themselves, their territories or dependent territories, their armed forces, or their allies, by such a state in association or alliance with a nuclear weapon state.

The United States of America, the Russian Federation, and the United Kingdom of Great Britain and Northern Ireland will consult in the event a situation arises which raises a question concerning these commitments.

This Memorandum will become applicable upon signature.

Signed in four copies having equal validity in the English, Russian and Ukrainian languages.

NBC News has posted a video on the status of Syria’s children in the now 4-year old war.  It is a deeply sad and moving video that belies all the nice words of the international community about humanitarian intervention.  I am not sure what kind of politics permits or justifies this atrocity.

Senator Feinstein of California has accused the CIA of hacking into the Senate Intelligence Committee’s computers.  If true, the accusations suggest an intelligence community that is essentially out of control.  Feinstein believes that the CIA was looking for documents that prove that the agency committed acts of torture while waging the global war on terror.   The idea that one branch of the government would commit illegal acts against another branch of government is incredible, and symptomatic of a government that is definitely not working properly.

The political situation in Turkey has erupted in violence again, as a young protester has died from injuries suffered in an earlier demonstration.   Corruption charges have swirled around Prime Minister Erdogan, but there is also a deeper fear that Erdogan has moved the country in an authoritarian direction.  The economic situation has worsened as the government seems incapable of addressing these larger concerns.

Foreign Policy has a great article on the protests that are occurring all over the world.  It draws on the common themes among these protests.  All protests, however, are profoundly local–what is astonishing is how many societies are facing the same problems.  The problem is clearly one of governance, and how leaders are failing to discharge their duties to their citizens.

Afghanistan’s elections are scheduled for April, and the results of that election will be critically important.  The current President, Karzai, has refused to reach an agreement with the US about whether US non-combat military forces can remain in the country after NATO pulls its forces out in December.  Both Karzai and the US have agreed to let the next president make that decision.  But the Taliban has threatened to use “all force” to disrupt the elections which may make the final resolution of the dispute impossible.

Former guerrilla leader, Salvador Sanchez Ceren, has won the presidential election in El Salvador.   Sanchez Ceren was one of the leaders of the rebel group that fought several US-backed governments in El Salvador in the 1980-92 civil war.  It was a very close election, and we should all hope that the political situation in El Salvador does not deteriorate: the rhetoric surrounding this election has been very intense.

Peter Baker of the New York Times has written a very good piece on the previous cases of where parts of states have seceded.  The comparisons are useful when one is trying to figure out the legality of the proposed referendum on Crimea merging with Russia.  If anything, his analysis proves how inconsistent the world has been on this particular question over the years.

The Arab League has joined the Palestinian Authority in rejecting Israel’s demand that it be recognized as a Jewish state.  The issue has been a long-standing disagreement between the Israelis and the Palestinians.  Israel demands the recognition as evidence of Palestinian sincerity in accepting the existence of the state of Israel.  The Palestinians refuse to make the recognition, arguing that they recognized Israel as a state in the Oslo Agreement.   The Palestinians believe that the demand forces them to give up all claims to the lands lost by the Palestinians in the creation of Israel and the Palestinian demand that they be allowed to return to their homes.

The economic stresses that led to the Great Recession of 2008 have not been addressed yet.  Indeed, global debt has increased from about $70 trillion in 2007 to about $100 trillion in 2013.  The dramatic increase in debt is the result of Central Banks all over the world buying bonds in order to lower interest rates in order to stimulate economic growth.   So far, the strategy has not worked, and, eventually, that debt will have to be paid back.  How it will be repaid is not at all clear, but the world is more vulnerable to a credit crisis today than it was in 2008 when the global economy almost collapsed.

Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi made a statement concerning territorial disputes in Asia that was considered quite provocative by many of its neighbors.  Referring to disputes with Japan and the Philippines, Mr. Wang said that “there is no room for compromise in territorial and historical issues.”

As it becomes more likely that Russia will take action to annex Crimea, the rhetoric between Russia and the West has become more heated.  For the third time, members of the Organisation for Security and Co-operation in Europe (OSCE) were denied entry into Crimea to assess the validity of the claims that Russians were being attacked by Ukrainians in Crimea.  Russia continues to deny that the armed soldiers taking control of Crimea are Russian soldiers.

About 15% of the Crimean population is Tatar.  This ethnic group was exiled from the Crimea by Stalin during World War II because Stalin mistrusted their loyalty to the Soviet Union.  For this reason, one would suspect that the Tatars would fiercely resist Russian control over the Crimea.  However, the Russians are courting the Tatars with very attractive offers of financial support and political promises.  It will be interesting to see where the Tatars end up.  For many years, the Crimean Tatars have been asking for independence, as evidenced by their membership in the Unrepresented Nations and Peoples Organization.