The Pew Research Center has conducted one of its surveys in Europe, asking people in different countries their opinions about Muslims, Jews, and Roma. The results are quite striking with a high degree of variation among different countries. Italians hold the most unfavorable views toward Muslims, Greeks hold the most unfavorable views about Jews, and virtually every country holds negative views about Roma. The results testify to the growth of ethnic sensitivities in Europe, a development quite at odds to the European Union experiment.
On Wednesday Iran and the P5+1 will begin what is hoped to be the final stage of negotiations on the Iranian nuclear energy program. The 6-month interim agreement signed earlier is due to expire on 20 July, and that interim agreement left some vital issues unresolved. The fundamental obstacle is the desire on the part of some of the powers that Iran not have the “capability” to build a nuclear bomb. The problem is that Iran already has the capability to build a bomb, and satisfying the demand for no capability means that Iran would have to dismantle or destroy some of the facilities (mainly centrifuges) that it has already built. As the deadline nears, we should be prepared for a propaganda war by all sides.
The mediator appointed by the UN to negotiate a settlement in Syria, Lakhdar Brahimi, has announced that he will step down from the position on 31 May. The decision signals his deep frustration over the negotiations and likely signals his belief that a settlement is not possible. The decision by Syria to hold a presidential election in June, with current President Assad as the only viable candidate, appears to be the final blow to any serious negotiations. Assad has essentially announced that he will stay on on his own terms. There is no end in sight for the Syrian tragedy, and the entire world should be ashamed of its failure to save the innocents who have suffered so much in the civil war.
Ukrainian separatists claimed victory as a referendum in certain parts of Ukraine showed support for independence from Kiev. The vote itself was highly controversial: the question asked was ambiguous, many Ukrainians boycotted the election, and there are many accusations of fraud. Nonetheless, some of the separatists asked to join Russia, using the referendum as a valid sign of the legitimacy of their independence. Russia has slowly backed away from overt support for the referendum, and it appears as if the Russians do not know what their next step should be. The interim government in Kiev condemned the vote, but it risks open civil war if it moves too hard against the separatists. One can only hope that negotiations between the separatists and the Kiev government can be fostered before too many irreconcilable steps are taken.
A video of about 100 of the 270 Nigerian schoolgirls kidnapped by Boko Haram was broadcast today. The girls had apparently been “converted” to Islam as they recited parts of the Koran and were dressed as Boko Haram believes Muslim girls should be dressed. The leader of the group, Abubakar Shekau, was seen in the broadcast and he delivered a speech in which he insisted that the girls would only be released as part of a prisoner exchange. There is a large-scale intelligence effort by many countries who are assisting the Nigerian government in locating the kidnapped girls, but there is no real likelihood of a rescue attempt any time soon.
NASA has released a study that shows that the ice sheet in Western Antarctica has already melted past “the point of no return” due to climate change. The US Public Broadcasting System has broadcast an interview with Thomas Wagner of NASA, one of the study’s lead scientists. According to Wagner, the rate of melt exceeds what had been expected and the main effect of the melt will be to raise sea levels far beyond what the IPCC had earlier predicted: “The next century, we’re looking at maybe three-feet-plus. When we include these kinds of factors, we might have to revise that estimate upwards, maybe four, maybe five, maybe more, and that’s kind of the cutting edge of the research right now.” Such levels would be catastrophic to all cities close to the seashore right now.
Iran has claimed that it successfully reverse-engineered a US RQ-170 Sentinel, a top-of-the-line drone. Iran claims that it captured the drone in December 2011 by disrupting the drone’s GPS system, a relatively low-tech attack. If true, the Iranians have secured some of the most sensitive secrets of the US. It remains to be seen, however, if the copy is robust. It is likely that the Iranians could fetch a very high price for some of the technology in the drone.
Afghanistan held a national election last month that failed to produce a clear-cut winner. The run-off between the two top vote-getters is scheduled for next month: Abdullah Abdullah, a former foreign minister, and Ashraf Ghani, a former finance minister. Abdullah recently received an endorsement from the third-place finisher, and it looks likely that he will win the election. Although a Pashtun, Abdullah is closely allied with the Tajiks in Afghanistan; Ghani was likely to receive strong support from the Pashtuns. The ethnic cleavage is an important division in Afghanistan, but it appears as if Abdullah has been able to defuse the intensity of that split.
There have been eight rounds of voting in the Indian national election, and the final round of voting is to be held on Monday. It appears that Narendra Modi’s Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) will win a majority of seats in the Parliament. Modi has been emphasizing economic issues in the election as the Indian economy has sputtered in recent months. For some Indians, however, Modi represents a brand of Hindu nationalism that is worrisome in the diverse Indian polity.
China has secured an oil drilling rig in waters in the South China Sea that is disputed territory. The rig is 17 miles from an island also claimed by the Vietnamese, and the action has precipitated 4 days of naval confrontation between the two states. The decision to place an oil rig is a step above simply claiming the territory–it signals an intention to extract resources that could be potentially very valuable. It is unlikely that the Vietnamese, who have a long history of tension with China, will back down from its claim.
In the face of Western sanctions (which will likely increase if the planned referendum in eastern Ukraine goes on as scheduled), Russia is turning to China as an investment partner. The shift makes sense for both countries: Russia exports raw materials, and China needs raw materials. The Chinese must be worried about the rule of law in Russia and how their investments may be handled by the Russian government. The Western sanctions have clearly affected the Russian financial sector, but not its exports of raw materials: “The world’s largest energy producer shipped 2 percent more gas to Europe in the first three months of 2014 than a year earlier, government data show. Diesel production for export increased, while cargoes of grains, palladium and nickel either climbed or were at similar levels.”
President Salva Kiir and former vice-president Riek Machar have signed a cease-fire in South Sudan. The violence in South Sudan is a struggle over political power between Kiir’s ethnic Dinkas and Machar’s ethnic Nuers, and millions of people have been displaced in the violence and thousands have been killed. The cease-fire gives an opportunity for humanitarian aid to be delivered to the country, but the UN has evidence that points to gross violations of human rights which makes the aid difficult to deliver fairly. There are 8,500 peacekeepers in South Sudan, but they have been impotent in the face of the savage violence.
Anti-government protesters were in the streets of Bangkok demanding the resignation of the interim government. After Prime Minister Shinawatra was forced to leave office because of corruption charges, she was replaced by her Deputy Prime Minister. But that change was not sufficient for those who want the entire government ousted. Unfortunately, the violent protests are expected to continue as Shinawatra’s supporters have decided to launch a counter-protest. The political process in Thailand has completely broken down, and now we wonder how long the economy will last under these volatile conditions.
Russia celebrated the anniversary of its victory over Germany during World War II today, and it was capped off by a visit to Crimea by President Putin. Not only was the visit provocative, the language of Putin’s speech was somewhat unsettling as he lauded Russia’s “all-conquering” patriotism. The Washington Post had an informative article in today’s edition that outlined Russia’s strategic and economic interests in Ukraine. The stakes for Russia in Ukraine are quite high, and critical to its overall military strength.
The world has focused its attention (finally) on the threat posed by Boko Haram to the political stability of Nigeria. With this increased attention, however, comes increased scrutiny of the effectiveness of the Nigerian government in dealing with this threat. The Nigerian security forces are hardly paragons of efficiency and virtue which makes it difficult for outside help to make much difference in rescuing the kidnapped school girls.
A bus strike in Rio de Janeiro is symptomatic of a number of issues in contemporary Brazil. Concerns about price increases a few months ago led to massive protests in many cities in the country, and there was a police shootout in one of the slums of the city a few days ago that led to a death. But the underlying cause of the protests is a sense within many in the country that the government does not protect the interests of citizens. The money spent on the upcoming World Cup football tournament (the month-long contest begins in June) is a symbol of the indifference of the government to the economic situation of most in the country. In that respect, the protest reflects the sentiment of many on other countries of the world as well.
There was a third act of violence in a train station in China’s northwestern province of Xinjiang a few days ago. The suspicion is that Uighurs who seek greater autonomy from the central Chinese government are responsible for the attacks. The attacks in train stations suggests that the Uighurs regard the train infrastructure as the most vulnerable part of the attempt by the Han Chinese to exercise greater control over Xinjiang. Crippling the transportation network also upsets the Chinese desire to develop land routes to the Middle East so that the country would be less vulnerable to disruptions in the sea lanes bringing critical oil.
The International Space Station has set up four High-Definition Cameras so that you can watch the earth in vivid detail as the station travels. The images are absolutely stunning, and are also mesmerizing. You should check it out. If the video is black, then it’s night. If the video is grey, then they are switching cameras or are being blocked for some reason. Come back at another time. There is no audio, but I would recommend playing something cosmic while you are watching.
Russian President Putin has called on Russian separatists in Donetsk to call off the secession referendum and has announced that he is pulling back Russian troops from the Ukrainian border. The announcement signals a decided shift in tone. Unfortunately, the US Department of Defense asserted that its satellites detected no change in the Russian positions along the border. Moreover, at least some of the separatists do not wish to postpone the referendum. The situation remains in a state of high flux.
Vietnam has claimed that Chinese vessels intentionally rammed two of its ships as they approached an oil rig that China has set up in disputed maritime territory. Additionally, the Philippines has seized a Chinese fishing vessel in disputed territory. It is hard to tell how this situation will unfold, but there does not seem to be an immediate sense of crisis at this time.
A Thai court has ordered Prime Minister Yingluck Shinawatra to leave office after she was found guilty of abusing her power. The ruling throws the political system of Thailand into complete turmoil, after months of protests. The Deputy Prime Minister will oversee the government until scheduled elections on 20 July. The tension reflects a long-standing divide between the urban and rural areas of Thailand.
It seems obvious that there are a variety of nations in the Ukrainian nation-state: those that identify as Ukrainian, those that define themselves as Russian, and other groups, such as the Tatars. What we now know as Ukraine grew from a tiny enclave in 1654 into the territorial entity of 2014. The map below gives a rough idea of how Ukraine has grown since its small beginnings. Much of the growth can be explained by the dynamism of its neighbor, Russia.
Good Jobs First has compiled a list of the subsidies that private corporations in the US receive from Federal, state, and Local communities to help create a favorable business climate. The amount of money granted to these corporations is substantial. Unlike social welfare programs, however, we rarely hear about whether the money is well-used or whether it serves a public purpose.
The Third US National Climate Assessment has been published, and its findings are grim. Climate change is definitely happening, and it definitely appears to be a function of human activity. The following video gives a visual rendition of how CO2 levels have changed over hundreds of thousands of years.
Happy Cinco de Mayo!!! The Battle of Puebla occurred on this date, and the Mexican army defeated a French force twice as large. It was the last battle between European and Latin American armies.
The current front-runner in the Egyptian presidential election, Abdul Fattah al-Sisi, the former military leader, declared today that the Muslim Brotherhood in Egypt “will not exist.” The Brotherhood has a substantial following in Egypt and in other parts of the world so it is difficult to understand what al-Sisi might mean. Unfortunately, his likely election means that Egypt will once again be ruled by a military leader, and the idea of eliminating a large part of the electorate does not sound encouraging.
When I was a child, several of my friends contracted polio; fortunately none of them developed serious cases of paralysis. It was a feared disease, and caused incredible hardship. The world made significant progress in eradicating the disease through intensive vaccination programs since that time, and the victory over polio seemed assured. Unfortunately, those efforts have faltered recently and the disease seems to be making a comeback in several countries, all of whom are engaged in serious conflict: Pakistan, Syria, Cameroon, Somalia, and Iraq are countries in which the disease seems to be spreading. The case of Pakistan is especially tragic, since the vaccinations have been hampered by many who suspect that the healthcare personnel are agents of the US. The suspicion is rooted in the sad reality that the US used a doctor who claimed to be vaccinating children as one of their spies in the capture of Osama bin Laden. A tragic case where a noble cause was undermined by short-term political interest.
How bad does this generation (the cohort lamentably labeled the “Millenials”) have it? The data do not lie.
Nahum Barnea of Ynet.com had an exclusive interview with a high American official about the failure of the Israeli-Palestinian peace negotiations. The interview was remarkable in its candor, and, for the first time, the US placed the failure of the negotiations squarely on the issue of the Israeli settlements. There is a great deal of speculation about who the official was, and I am certain we will be learning more about the interview in the days to come. But there is little question that the US will not be trying to get the two sides together anytime soon, and, unless the settlement issue is addressed by the Israelis, not during the remainder of the Obama Administration.
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