The Economist has a very thoughtful essay on American foreign policy. It is a comprehensive view of the various issues facing the US, and its viewpoint is sobering. As the US continues to disengage from world affairs, it will leave a partial vacuum in its wake. How other nations perceive that vacuum may lead to conflict. On the whole, however, the American people have signaled very clearly that they no longer wish to use power in a world that they do not really understand and that really does not understand the US very well. We can clearly identify the point at which American disengagement began: it started with the Iraq War in March 2003. The essay is reprinted on Business Insider.
On Tuesday, the Obama Administration will release the National Climate Assessment. Advance copies of the report have been leaked to the press, and the report allegedly argues that climate change has already happened and it should not be considered a threat only in the distant future. It is a 1,300 page document assembled by 300 scientists, and it will form the basis for the Administration’s climate policies in the future. Whether the report actually changes US policies remains to be seen.
Liberalism fostered the growth of representative democracy, and the democratic process has been hailed by many as the most important contribution of the Enlightenment. But the definition of democracy has never been defined outside of the framework of liberalism–as implemented by European societies, the meaning has always been rooted in the rights of individuals to participate in their political governance. But globalization has brought about different frameworks in which the rights of individuals needs to be assessed in light of other societal values. The meanings of democracy are long overdue for a reconsideration, and the traditional definitions seem to be fraying.
The worst fighting so far has broken out in the Ukrainian city of Odessa. Pro-Ukrainian nationalists attacked pro-Russian separatists that had occupied several buildings. As many as 40 people died in the riots, and there is fear that Russia may use the violence as a reason to intervene. The riots were in response to a more vigorous attempt by the Kiev government to control its territory more completely. In a more encouraging sign, pro-Russian separatists released the monitors from the OSCE that had been held hostage for several days.
The World Bank has just published a report that China’s economy will soon be larger than the US’s economy. The US has had the largest economy in the world since 1872, but there is little question that the Chinese economy will inevitably be much bigger. Curiously, the Chinese government has disputed the projection, arguing that there are methodological problems in the study. The real reason for the Chinese demurral, however, is that China does not wish to be identified as the largest economy because many would then expect China to shoulder a larger burden in maintaining the global economy. Apparently, China does not wish to carry the burden of being a hegemon–it identifies its primary task as taking care of its domestic economy.
The Middle East Respiratory Syndrome (MERS) has reached the US. The new coronavirus is more prevalent in the Middle East, but a traveler from Riyadh, Saudi Arabia, flew to London, then to Chicago and then boarded a bus to Indiana. The virus is quite lethal (out of 401 patients, 93 have died), but it does not appear to be highly contagious.
Extremists in northern Nigeria have kidnapped 276 girls from local schools, and there are reports that some of the girls as being sold as brides. The extremists, who are identified with the Muslim group, Boko Haram, are part of a coordinated effort to gain greater autonomy from the central government of Nigeria. The government, led by President Goodluck Jonathan, has proven to be impotent in the face of the attacks, and there is widespread dismay at the government’s inability to rescue the girls.
Anatole Kaletsky has written a fascinating essay on why the sanctions against Russia are unlikely to work. In the essay, however, he outlines certain measures, such as working on a new constitution for Ukraine prior to the use of sanctions, might have worked better. In some sense, Kalestsky is arguing that the West should not have been so rigid about Ukrainian sovereignty at the beginning of the crisis. Less adherence to the rules of world order may in fact make a more peaceful world. On the other hand, if sovereignty is always contestable, then there are a lot more fights to choose from. The idea is worth considering.
There is a growing sense in the electronic media that Russian forces will make a move in eastern Ukraine this weekend. I have no idea whether this is likely, but the focus of a lot of the reporting is on the strategic significance of certain areas. The Royal United Service Institute of Great Britain published an analysis of the strategic significance of the area of Slavyansk, an otherwise non-descript region. Apparently, there are 5 million Kalashnikov rifles stored there by the Ukrainian government–the Russians are worried that Ukrainian nationalists might seize to wage a guerrilla war against their forces. And the Washington Post published this graphic showing the most recent movement of troops by both sides.
The situation in the Central African Republic continues to be unstable and horrific. The tensions between the Christians and the Muslims in the country do not reflect religious disagreements at all, but rather the meddling of outsiders in the internal politics of the country. Graeme Wood has written an essay for the New Republic which provides good background material on the violence, and explains why the humanitarian intervention force by the African Union, but spearheaded by the French, does not seem to be helping at all.
An explosion has occurred near the Urumqi south railway station in China’s Xinjiang Uygur Autonomous Region. More than 100 people have been killed in political unrest in the Xinjiang region over the last year, and the Chinese government has tried hard to repress the Uighur movement in the region for greater autonomy. Interestingly, the Chinese labelled the attackers as “religious” extremists and not as political dissidents.
Turkish Prime Minister Erdogan of the ruling Justice and Development Party (AKP) ordered the police to disperse a protest in Taksim Square. Workers had gathered in the square to celebrate May Day, but the government had issued orders against any demonstrations. The police used tear gas, water cannon, and rubber bullets to disperse the crowds, and the forceful action has further eroded the legitimacy of the government in the eyes of those Turks who wish to see a more liberal democracy in Turkey.
According to a recent NBC New/Wall Street Journal poll, almost half of the American people believe that the US should reduce its role in world affairs. The poll reflects a steady decline over several years in support for an activist foreign policy. You can access the poll results here.
But the University of California is testing a new 3-D printer that can “contour” print a full-sized house. This is a mock-up of the printer:
It will be some time before these houses hit the market, but just think what the effects on the construction industry will be.
European scientists have conducted surveys of the Atlantic and the Arctic Ocean, as well as the Mediterranean Sea, and have found that human litter is pervasive in every site. The most common form of human debris is plastic, but the amount of junk found is comprehensive. We have no idea what the long-term consequences of these wastes might be, but the evidence proves that no part of the planet is immune from human activity.
Over the last thirty years, China is one of the most extraordinary examples of economic growth in human history. Its economic growth has led to a dramatic fall in poverty, and there is little question that from an economic point of view, many Chinese are much better off. Yet, China has not escaped the process of income inequality that has plagued most every other country in the world. The most recent study indicates that income inequality in China now is worse than that in the United States which had been the most extreme case to date. The study merely confirms what polls in China have indicated is a pressing concern for most Chinese citizens.
Most citizens do not think much about foreign aid. Many believe that aid is granted for humanitarian reasons; others believe that the money is simply wasted because of corruption in recipient countries. The more pragmatic realists condone foreign aid as a fairly direct way to secure the support of allies or potential allies. There are some, however, who believe that foreign assistance is a more insidious form of imperialism–a way of insinuating influence at a relatively low cost. Mark Varga has written a provocative essay supporting those nation-states that refuse to accept foreign aid.
In the nine months of the Israeli-Palestinian peace negotiations, Israel approved about 14,000 new settler homes in the Occupied West Bank according to the Israeli peace group, Peace Now. As we have noted in earlier posts, the Geneva and Hague Conventions forbid any permanent movement of people in or out of occupied territories. These moves simply make any possible peace agreement more difficult to forge since the land remaining for a Palestinian state continues to shrink beyond viability.
US President Obama has completed a 10-year military agreement with the Philippines. The agreement does not include any leases on military bases (a sore subject for the former US colony), but there is little doubt that the American presence in the region will be unmistakable. The agreement is part of Obama’s “pivot” from Europe to Asia, and reflects the anxiety of many of the countries in Southeast Asia about the growing Chinese naval power. The Chinese clearly are not pleased about the agreement, but it reflects the balance of power theory in action.
Thirty-five distinguished jurists in international law have published a letter to the British newspaper, The Guardian, arguing that the United Nations has the authority to provide humanitarian assistance to the people of Syria even if the government of Syria does not give its consent to such aid. The letter argues that 9.3 million people are in urgent need of humanitarian assistance, and that the UN’s unwillingness to provide aid reflects “an overly cautious interpretation of international humanitarian law.” I doubt that the UN will follow this advice, but the argument is a powerful challenge to the traditional conception of state sovereignty, and it extends the logic of the responsibility to protect.
US Secretary of State Kerry, in remarks before the Trilateral Commission, used language rarely used by US diplomats to describe a possible outcome to the collapse of the peace negotiations between Israel and the Palestinian Authority. Referring to the horrific distribution of power in South Africa where a small minority of whites once ruled over the black majority, Kerry said that the failure of the two-state solution to could lead to a situation where the Israelis would have to rule over the larger population of Palestinians. If a unitary state emerged, Israelis might have to create two classes of citizens in order to preserve the essential nature of Israel as a Jewish state. Such language reflects the frustration of a sustained, but failed, attempt to broker a peace agreement.
Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu declared that there will be no peace talks with the Palestinians as long as Hamas is part of the Palestinian Authority. Israel’s position is that Hamas does not recognize Israel’s right to exist and therefore there is no reason to hold any further negotiations. Interestingly, one of the members of Netanyahu’s government, Naftali Bennett, who holds a senior cabinet position, once told David Remnick of the New Yorker: “I will do everything in my power to make sure they never get a state,” he says of the Palestinians. No more negotiations, “no more illusions.” Consistency is not a strong characteristic of world politics.
French Foreign Minister Laurent Fabius warned of “incalculable consequences” if the situation in Ukraine is not resolved. There still is no talk whatsoever of a Western military defense of Ukraine, even if the Russians were to invade. But the US has announced that it will initiate new sanctions against Russia and is working on yet a third round of sanctions if the crisis does not end soon. Russian has recalled its United Nations Ambassador back to Moscow for urgent consultations.
A new coronavirus, called Middle East Respiratory Syndrome, has spread beyond its initial site of its discovery, Saudi Arabia, to a large number of countries. The virus was only identified in 2012, and it has a relatively high rate of lethality. The virus is similar to the SARS virus that was detected several years ago in China. Health officials, however, are becoming increasingly concerned as the virus has spread and because there has been a recent spike in the number of diagnosed cases.
The response of the Russian people to the activities of their country in Ukraine has been incredibly supportive–Spiegel reports that polls indicate that over 80% of the Russian people support President Putin’s positions and actions in Ukraine. In many respects, the enthusiasm in Russia reminds me of the support that President George W. Bush received from the American people in the “War on Terror.” Such nationalist sentiments are easy to understand in some respects, but the critical question is how long-lived the sentiment can burn at such high heat. It took about two years for the American people to begin to question the war in Iraq, and intense nationalism is always troublesome in the short run.
Pro-Russian separatists in Ukraine have taken representatives of the Organization for Security and Co-operation in Europe (OSCE) hostage. The OSCE had sent in military observers in order to determine whether Russian-speaking Ukrainians were in fact being ill-treated by Kievan authorities. The hostage-taking raises the stakes for Europe in Ukraine as it is a direct challenge to European authority on matters of peace-keeping. US President Obama has been pushing for tougher economic sanctions against Russia, and several European states were reluctant to take such steps. The Russian challenge to the OSCE may force the hand of the Europeans.
There’s an old word that is quickly achieving a great deal of attention. The word is oligarchy and many are using it to describe the American political system. Perhaps the best example of an historical oligarchy is 14th Century Venice. There was literally a list of familial names that signified those who participate in economic activities in the city. As long as the book was open to new names, Venice thrived as the economic center of Europe. Once the list was closed, Venice began a slow decline that was never arrested. The wealth inequality in the US has reached such concentrated levels that the word oligarchy is becoming increasingly more plausible as a description of the American political system.
World Politics News 