World Politics News   Articles for World Politics Course

We sometimes talk about the “hard” and “soft” power of a state in the international system.  Hard power is defined as those assets that are tangible and can be used to directly influence the decisions of other states.  Soft power is less concrete and is made up of attributes that make the influence of a state attractive to others.  For example, much of American influence in the world comes from the fact that many in the world enjoy American culture:  rock and roll, jeans, McDonalds.  For a long time, the liberal systems embraced by the West (representative democracy, market capitalism, and human rights) were viewed by others as a desirable objective.  Steven Erlanger of The New York Times suggests that the attractiveness of those liberal systems is waning in world affairs.

Timothy Snyder is the author of an important book, The Bloodlands, in which he chronicles the land between Germany and the Soviet Union during the Second World War and how both regimes unleashed genocidal forces on the populations living there.   He has written an op-ed for the New York Times in which he parallels the desire of states for agricultural land in the expected process of climate change and how those desires will lead to similar genocidal forces.  Unfortunately, most of the “available” arable land is on the continent of Africa, and there is plenty of evidence that countries such as China are attempting to access that land.

Although Germany has indicated that it is willing to take up to 800,000 refugees from war-torn countries, making it one of the most open countries in Europe, it just announced that it is implementing emergency border controls that appear to be inconsistent with the open borders promised by the Schengen Plan of the EU.   The two positions are not necessarily inconsistent, it is clear that any slowdown in processing the refugees will leave many of them trapped in openly hostile countries like Hungary.  The flood of refugees is an unprecedented crisis (the most dramatic movement of refugees since World War II) and governments are clearly unprepared to deal with the crisis. The US remains an incredible laggard in the crisis, promising only to take in 10,000 Syrian refugees.

Denmark historically has had a reputation for being one of the most open countries in Europe.  Since the election of Lars Løkke Rasmussen of the Venstre Party, a center-right party,  the country has changed its attitudes toward immigrants and refugees.  Many refugees are now leaving the country for Sweden which has maintained its policy of openness.   Last week Denmark halted all train traffic through Germany in an effort to stop the flow of refugees.  Denmark’s policies are not as harsh as Hungary’s policies, but the message to refugees is unmistakable.

Congressional Republicans have not given up on their effort to prevent the Iranian nuclear agreement from coming into force.  Senate Majority Leader, Mitch McConnell, indicated that he will bring the same legislation disapproving the deal back to the floor.  House Republicans have indicated that they will try to impose controls over the money that can be used to implement the agreement.  The debate over the agreement is also working through the Iranian legislative process.

Venezuelan politics was rattled by the conviction of Leopoldo López, the opposition leader.  López was convicted of inciting violence in the elections held in 2014 that led to the administration of Nicolás Maduro.  The trial was conducted in secret and no defense witnesses were allowed, even though there were more than 100 witnesses for the prosecution.  López was sentenced to 14 years in prison, an extraordinarily harsh sentence.  The opposition parties have called for protests on 19 September.  The Venezuelan economy is in chaos with very high inflation and shortages of most goods, and the situation is very unstable:  it is hard to predict where the protests might lead.

The UN General Assembly  has voted on a resolution to protect countries who are experiencing pressures for repaying debts from unreasonable demands for reforms and budget cutbacks that harm the general citizenry.   All countries have the sovereign right to repudiate debt but the consequences for such defaults is usually that the country is frozen out of international credit markets for an extended period of time.  Short of that right, countries are generally hostage to laws that overwhelmingly favor the creditors to demand whatever reforms they deem appropriate.  The General Assembly resolution is designed to limit the scope of those demands.  Unfortunately, General Assembly resolutions are not binding (only Security Council resolutions are binding).  The vote, however, was overwhelmingly in favor and it does send a political message.

It now appears as if US President Obama will be able to begin lifting sanctions against Iran in order to implement the Iranian nuclear agreement.  Analysts will be pondering Obama’s success in getting the agreement passed over the strenuous objections of the Israeli government.  Jeffrey Goldberg argues in The Atlantic that it was Prime Minister Netanyahu’s strategy that ultimately led to the willingness of the Democrats in the US Senate to side with the President.

Economic hard times often lead to right-wing politics, and no where is that tendency more obvious than in Greece.  Greece has been in a sustained depression for the last five years and it has gone through three debt bail-outs which have only made the economic situation worse.  In this climate it is no surprise that a new political party, called Golden Dawn, has emerged.  The party is powerfully anti-immigrant and has adopted a swastika-like image as its political symbol.   As with most right-wing parties, it places a strong emphasis on the historical narrative of the nation–in this case, the battle of the Spartans against the Persians at Thermopylae in 480 B.C.E.

A Flyer From One of the Most Historically Inaccurate Films Ever Made–the 300

There are more reports of violence between Turkish forces and Kurdish rebels, and these reports include evidence of attacks on civilians.  The violence was in the town of Cizre, a primarily Kurdish town in the southeastern part of Turkey.  The town has been under a seven-day, twenty-four curfew, and life for the people of the town has been miserable.  It is likely that other Kurdish strongholds have undergone similar attacks, but information about those attacks is difficult to obtain.  The US supports Turkey and relies upon Turkish support for the continued use of the military base at Incirlik.  But tje Kurds have been the most reliable ground force against the Islamic State.  At some point, the US is going to have to decide which of those priorities is more important to its strategic objectives.

In a 119-8 vote, with 45 abstentions, the United Nations General Assembly approved the flying of both the Vatican and the Palestinian flag at UN headquarters.   The vote recognizes the nonmember observer state status of both and is a significant symbolic victory for what the UN now recognizes as the “State of Palestine.”   The US opposed the move, arguing that it does nothing to resolve the Israeli-Palestinian conflict which it believes can only be solved through direct negotiations between the parties and not through the intervention of the UN.

Germany has been one of the most welcoming to the refugees coming to Europe from Syria, Eritrea, and other countries experiencing serious dislocations.  This attitude has been true despite the adamant opposition of some anti-immigrant groups, located primarily in some of the smaller towns and villages of Germany.   The reason for this attitude is that Germany is undergoing a rather dramatic demographic shift and is suffering a shortage of younger workers.  The refugees offer an effective way to remedy that shortage–the refugees are generally eager to join the work force.

Russia is apparently building a new military base along its border with Ukraine. The new base suggests that Russia clearly intends to maintain the ability to provide assistance to Russian-speaking separatists in eastern Ukraine.  The base likely spells the death knell of the Conventional Armed Forces in Europe (CFE) Treaty that was signed on November 19, 1990 in an effort to minimize the likelihood of a conventional war in Europe.  The Treaty has been subject to a variety of revisions since 1990 and the breakup of the Warsaw Pact and the expansion of NATO into some of the eastern European and Baltic states has made precise interpretations of the Treaty difficult.

The back story to the flood of refugees rushing into Europe is quite dark.  Smugglers are responsible for making many of the arrangements for the refugees, but show little or no responsibility toward their well being.  One smuggler, portrayed in an article in Speigel was responsible for leaving refugees trapped in a truck in Austria, ultimately leading to the death of everyone in the truck.  The trip from Syria to Europe will cost a refugee €2,500, a price that many have to sacrifice everything to afford.  These smugglers have made about €16 billion since 2000, profiting off human misery.

Myanmar is beginning an election cycle which is an important step forward for a country that has existed under martial law for far too long.  There are 92 political parties vying for power and over 6,200 candidates.  There is, however, a serious problem:  there is not a single Muslim party or candidate in the election, even though Muslims constitute the second largest minority group in the primarily Buddhist country.  Unfortunately, that omission is true even for the National League of Democracy led by Aung San Suu Kyi, the Nobel Peace laureate.  One could have hoped more from her after her 15-year house imprisonment and her intimate understanding of what it means to be excluded.

The violence between Kurdish groups and the Turkish government has escalated.  Elements of the Kurdistan Workers’ Party (PKK) killed 14 Turkish policemen in response to bombing by the government against PKK strongholds.  At one time Turkish Prime Minister Erdogan was quite committed to ending the long-term conflict between the government and Kurdish parties.  But after the recent elections in which the Turkish parties secured sufficient seats in Parliament to deny Erdogan’s party, the AK, a majority of seats, Erdogan reversed his cooperative stance and seems intent on using anti-Kurdish sentiment to regain the majority in Parliament.

There are currently about 4 million Syrian refugees in the world (not counting the Syrians who are still in Syria but who have left their homes).  While the media has paid the most attention to the refugees who are trying to get to Europe, the vast majority of those refugees are in Lebanon, Turkey, and Jordan (one in 4 people in Lebanon are Syrian refugees, although I suspect that the number is closer to 1 in 3).  The Los Angeles Times has a breakdown of where the refugees are.

In response to reports that Russia is building a military base in Latakia, Syria in order to help maintain the power of President Assad, Bulgaria has closed its airspace to Russian planes.   The Russians clearly regard the move as unfriendly and deny that there are Russian soldiers in Syria.  It is more than likely that Bulgaria made the move at the request of the US.

The Hungarian Prime Minister of Hungary has used inflammatory rhetoric against what he considers to be a Muslim invasion of Christian Europe to justify his treatment of the refugees from Syria.  That rhetoric is not new to that region of Europe.  In 1389 Serbian forces faced an invasion of the Ottoman Empire on the “field of blackbirds” (kosovo polje).  In 1989, on the 600th anniversary of the battle, Slobodan Milosevic, who ultimately became the leader of Serbia and waged a brutal genocidal war against the primarily Muslim Bosnians, referred to that battle in these terms:

“Six centuries ago, Serbia defended itself in the field of Kosovo, but it also defended Europe. Serbia was at that time the bastion that defended the European culture, religion and European society in general.”

The fear of Muslim “invasions” in southeast Europe is long-standing and apparently impossible to erase.

Hundreds of refugees stranded at the Hungary-Serbian border stormed past the border control and entered Hungary.  They complained of inadequate facilities at the border and feared being stranded there without any support.  Germany stepped up its promises to aid the refugees, as did the French.  The British promised to admit 5,000 refugees over the next five years.  These promises are important steps but remain inadequate to the problem.  The US still refuses to make substantial commitments.

Europe was also troubled by the discontent of its farmers.  Thousands of farmers descended on Brussels to protest high taxes and plunging food prices.   Tractors blockaded the streets of Brussels and the protesters hurled eggs and sprayed the police with milk and hay.

Uzbekistan has banned the teaching of Political Science in the country.   Islam Karimov has been President of the country since its independence after the break-up of the Soviet Unionand one can safely classify the regime as authoritarian.  The ban is based upon Karimov’s belief that Political Science does not take into account the “Uzbek model” and is a pseudo-science.  According to The Guardian: “The last remaining course in the subject widely taught in the country, which will now be called The Theory and Practice of Building a Democratic Society in Uzbekistan.”  I always knew I was dangerous.

Austria has announced that it intends to lift the emergency measures which allowed the free flow of refugees across its borders.  The emergency steps of lifting any checks on the people crossing the border was in response to the flood of refugees who had been bottled up in Hungary.  Austria, after consultation with both Germany and Hungary, has decided to reinstate the controls indicating that it wished to resume to a more “normal” situation.  Border checks are a long-standing feature of the nation-state system so the move is not a surprise.  But such checks are time-consuming and subject to capricious implementation–both attributes somewhat inappropriate in the present desperate circumstance.

UN humanitarian programs such as the High Commissioner on Refugees are rapidly running out of money.  These agencies had a 10% cut in their budgets last year, and the needs for their services has simply exploded this year with the crisis in Syria.  We tend to focus on the flow of refugees into Europe, but other countries, such as Turkey, are bearing a much heavier burden.  The World Health Organization was severely taxed because of the Ebola crisis in West Africa, and the World Food Programme has had very high demands this year as well.  It seems clear that the global institutions entrusted with humanitarian protections are not up to the tasks they currently confront.

There is increasing evidence that Russia is building a military base in Syria in order to prop up the regime of President Assad.   Russia already has a naval base in Tartus and there is satellite evidence that the Russians are building an air base at Latakia from which the Russians can fly missions against the Islamic State (the same objective as current US policy).  Nonetheless, US Secretary of State Kerry has expressed concern to Russian Foreign Minister Lavrov about the build-up.  Obviously, the US does not believe in the balance of power proposition: “the enemy of my enemy is my friend.”

US President Obama met with Saudi King Salman in Washington and discussed the Iranian nuclear agreement.  Saudi Arabia has expressed great anxiety about the prospect of Iran developing nuclear weapons, but King Salman left Washington apparently satisfied with Obama’s assurances that the agreement will prevent that outcome.  The US-Saudi alliance has been under great strain in recent years, but it seems clear that both sides believe that they need each other in the Middle East.  The successful outcome of the meeting gives additional impetus to the Iranian agreement which the US Congress will debate on 17 September.

Vietnam and the Philippines are close to agreement on a strategic partnership.  Such an alliance would be truly historic and reflects the apprehension on both sides about increased Chinese power in the South China Sea.  The Philippines already has a relationship with both Japan and the United States.  It is likely that China will find the proposed relationship offensive, a classic problem of the security dilemma.

Enough Senators have come out in favor of the Iranian nuclear deal to assure that the US Congress will not be able to scuttle the deal.  The news assures US President Obama of a significant political and diplomatic victory, and also assures that the US will be able to keep its promises to its allies:  Britain, France, and Germany.  It also suggests a new and still undefined relationship to Israel.  US support for Israel was never really in question; the only question was whether the deal improved or degraded Israel’s security.  But the evidence suggests that the defining moment in the minds of many Senators was House Majority Leader Boehner’s decision to invite Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu to address Congress without first consulting with President Obama.  The move implicitly raised the question of whether a vote against the deal was a vote for American or Israeli national interest.

In what can only be described as a macabre situation, Czech police are reportedly taking refugees off trains bound for Germany and writing numbers on their arms in ink.  The parallel to the treatment of Jews in the 1930s is striking, but appears to have been not fully appreciated by Czech authorities.  No one disputes that the handling of such a large number of desperate people must be orderly, but European authorities seem unwilling to devise plans to treat the refugees in a more effective and humane manner.  The treatment of refugees is outlined in the Convention relating to the Status of Refugees adopted on 28 July 1951 by the UN and signed by all the European states.

Those refugees who had been stranded in the train station in Hungary have set off on foot to walk to Vienna.  The desperation of the refugees is matched only by their determination.  Fortunately, it appears as if Hungary is backing down from its refusal to allow the refugees to pass through.  We should remember that Steve Jobs was the child of a Syrian migrant to the US who came in 1954.