Reuters is reportingthat the US will be sending a “small” number of special operations forces to Syria. This is the first time that combat troops have been sent to Syria. The troops will be in support of the Syrian Free Army, a small rebel force opposed to both the Assad regime and the Islamic State. The move places the US in opposition to the Russian and Iranian forces which are operating in Syria in support of Assad. Given that Russian planes have been bombing the Syrian Free Army, one can only hope that the US and Russia have been carefully talking about how to avoid confrontation.
China has announced that it is ending its “one-child” policy. The policy was implemented during the early years of the People’s Republic as a way to avoid overpopulation. It has, however, led to several problems. From a public policy point of view, the policy led to a demographic shift which made older Chinese people the dominant age cohort. That shift has led to labor shortages and constant upward pressure on wages. But the policy was never popular among the Chinese people who tended to favor boys over girls. That preference led to female infanticide and corruption as couples bribed officials to permit another child in hopes of getting a male child. On the other hand, the pressure for smaller families is just as intense in China as it is in other wealthier countries.
The Christian Social Union (CSU), one of the parliamentary partners in Angela Merkel’s coalition government, is threatening to leave her cabinet in protest over her handling of the refugee crisis. Such a move would threaten Merkel’s ten-year hold on German politics and expose a growing cleavage in German society. The issue of immigration is fast becoming a highly volatile one in German politics and one that could lead to a change of government.
The US strategy in the Middle East suffers because it is largely incoherent. The US seems to be reacting to events and does not seem to be guided by a vision of what its true goals and interests in the region actually are. Part of this incoherence, however, is due to the fact that US allies in the region are operating at cross-purposes. For example, Turkey seems to think that the Kurds are more of a threat tot Turkey than the Islamic State. And even though Iranian interests and American interests in the region are growing closer, the US seems to be reluctant to embrace that politically inconvenient fact. Until the US makes its own objectives crystal clear, then it is unlikely that its allies will be able to support a sustained or coherent policy.
China continues to forge a different path in economic and political development. Rather than rely exclusively on markets and representative democracy, China develops central plans to guide the overall economy which are then implemented at different levels of government. But the Chinese government makes a concerted effort to elicit public support for the plans and, over time, the government has become even more sophisticated in selling its Five Year Plans. Such as releasing this video to appeal to young people:
Income inequality continues to worsen in the US (and globally). The most recent indicator of income inequality is in retirement incomes. The Center for Effective Government and the Institute for Policy Studies have released a study that shows that the retirement accounts of the top 100 CEOs average about $49.3 million per executive, or a combined $4.9 billion. That amount is equal to the entire retirement accounts of 41 percent of U.S. families — or more than 116 million people. It is highly unlikely that these CEOs really care about whether Social Security remains solvent in the coming years.
In a rather stunning development, Iran has been invited to join the talks about a negotiated settlement in Syria. The move undoubtedly strengthens the position of Syrian President Assad since both Russia and Iran favor his continued rule. It also represents a setback for the US position which favors Assad’s removal. It is probable that the Obama Administration is now moving toward the Russian/Iranian position although it will likely not make that statement. The invitation also elevates Iran’s position in the Middle East which is a setback for Israel and Saudi Arabia. The chessboard pieces are moving quite fast right now.
The sovereign debt crisis in Europe seems to have receded after the recent Greek elections and Greek compliance with the austerity demands of the troika. But appearances can be deceiving. Portugal is also a highly indebted country, and its recent inconclusive elections, in which the center-right party that accepts austerity managed to maintain control of the government even though the anti-austerity left-wing parties garnered 62% of the final vote, will lead to an extended period of stalemate and drift. A heavily indebted country can ill afford a weak government.
Despite a ruling by the International Court of Justice that its whale killings do not constitute scientific research, Japan has indicated that it intends to continue hunting whales in the Antarctic. Scientific research is one of the two exceptions to whale hunting granted by the international community (the other is hunting by indigenous peoples who have traditionally hunted whales for food), but the International Court of Justice found that Japan was not in fact conducting any research at all. In response Japan said that the ICJ’s jurisdiction “does not apply to … any dispute arising out of, concerning, or relating to research on, or conservation, management or exploitation of, living resources of the sea”. Most international legal scholars would disagree.
The USS Lassen, an Arleigh Burke class destroyer, sailed within 12 nautical miles of Subi Reef (which the Chinese now call Nansha Island), one of the reefs that China has claimed as its national territory. The US insists that international law does not recognize sovereignty over reefs (an accurate portrayal of international law); the Chinese insist that they have built up the reef to become an island which does qualify as national territory (again, an accurate position except for the fact that international law does not recognize “man-made” islands). The Chinese protested the action and declared that additional forays by the US Navy may “trigger eventualities.” The Chinese called in the US Ambassador to lodge a formal protest and the Chinese navy shadowed the Lassen as it sailed passed the reef.
Research published in the journal, Nature Climate Change, indicates that temperatures and humidity in the Persian Gulf may become so unbearable because of climate change that lives will be in danger. The evidence suggests that the combination of heat and humidity may be so intense that children, the elderly, and those who have to work outside may be unable to sweat sufficiently to lower body temperatures and may die of hyperthermia. The Gulf region may be the place where we first experience the upper limit of human adaptability to climate change.
In response to the recent violence in Jerusalem, Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu has ordered a review of the residency status of thousands of Palestinians who live in East Jerusalem. Israel claims the entire city of Jerusalem as Israeli territory and the Palestinians regard East Jerusalem as the capital of a Palestinian state. The Israelis currently seize the property of Palestinian families if any member of the family commits an act of terrorism, and Palestinians fear that this proposed review is a prelude to the wholesale exclusion of Palestinian property in Jerusalem. Such a move would undoubtedly trigger off another round of violence.
The polls indicate that the right-wing Law and Justice Party has won 39 percent of the vote in Sunday’s Polish election. Apparently not a single left-wing party received the necessary 8 percent of the vote to be represented in the Parliament. If these results are accurate, they signal a sharp shift in Polish politics reflecting strong skepticism toward the European Union and a harsh attitude toward immigrants. Undoubtedly, the Law and Justice Party will also demand a harder line against Russia. Germany and France cannot be pleased with the results.
As the Italians almost did several years ago, Guatemalans have elected a comedian as Prime minister. In 2013, Beppe Grillo, a comedian in Italy, led what he called the 5 Star Movement to protest the corruption of Italian politics. The Guatemalans has elected Jimmy Morales as their Prime Minister. He campaigned on the platform of “not corrupt, not a thief” which resonated quite strongly in a country that has experienced blatant and rank corruption in the past. How Morales will govern is unknown: he has never held an elected office. The outcome conforms well to the poll conducted by Chapman University and reviewed in the blog yesterday.
Chapman University conducts an annual poll asking Americans to rank their fears (on a scale of 1-4). Here are the 2015 results. I find it fascinating that government corruption tops the list (even above clowns).
The Complete List of Fears, 2015
The following is a complete, list of all of the fears addressed by the Chapman Survey of American Fears, Wave 2 (2015), including the percent of Americans who reported being afraid or very afraid.
In November 1983 NATO conducted a military exercise, codenamed “Able Archer”, which the Soviet leadership interpreted as a prelude to an American nuclear attack. Americans were told that the exercise was nothing more than that. But in the context of President Reagan’s aggressive Cold War rhetoric, the Soviet Union believed that the exercise was a feint. In 1990, the President’s Intelligence Advisory Board issued a report, which was classified, that indicated how close the world came to a nuclear war. That report has now been made available and it makes for chilling reading. We will see how the American public reacts to this new information, if at all.
Today is a big day for elections. Elections are being held in Argentina, Poland, Tanzania, Guatemala, Haiti and Ivory Coast. Except for Poland, all of these states are somewhat fragile politically, so we;ll have a good test of how deeply democratic sentiments are held across the planet. Argentina will have to choose a new candidate since the current President, Cristina Fernández de Kirchner, cannot run again. She and her husband have dominated Argentine politics for many years. Poland will also be closely watched to see if the movement in Europe toward more nationalist, anti-immigrant parties, will be captured by the Law and Justice Party.
We tend to think about poverty in the developed and the developing world as being fundamentally different. In many respects, there are very important differences. There is, however, one aspect of poverty–agricultural poverty–which is remarkably similar in both the rich and the poor worlds. Indeed, in many respects, the poor in rich and poor states have more in common with each other than they do with their national rich counterparts.
Israel and Jordan have apparently agreed to have TV monitoring cameras placed on the Temple Mount/Noble Sanctuary. Tensions over possible changes in the rules governing access to the area have rattled Jerusalem for the last month. Both sides hope that the monitoring cameras will be able to prove to all sides that the rule preventing Jews from praying near the mosques is being enforced and that Muslims will not be restricted any further in their ability to attend the mosques.
Russia indicated its willingness to have elections in Syria which would include the Syrian Free Rebels, the faction supported by the US. It is hard to imagine how accurate elections could be held in the war-torn country, and one cannot shake the suspicion that the proposal is not entirely serious. The Russians have complained that the US is not cooperating with it because the US will not tell Russia the locations of the Syrian Free Rebels. Ostensibly the Russians want the information to avoid bombing the rebels; the US refuses to give Russia the information because Russia has been bombing the Syrian rebels at a higher rate than it has been bombing the Islamic state.
Anti-immigrant sentiment in Germany appears to be growing and it seems to be led by a movement called PEGIDA (Patriots against the Islamization of the West). Members of the group which seems to be centered in the city of Dresden have allegedly made threats against politicians who support welcoming immigrants into the country. The anti-immigrant movement has a blog entitled “Politically Incorrect” which disseminates its anti-immigrant propaganda.
As the media focuses on the Russian activity in Syria, we all would be wiser to focus on the Iranian support for Assad which is far more critical. Dexter Filkins has written an excellent essay on Iran’s strategy for the New Yorker which is definitely worth a read. He focuses on the role of Major General Qassem Suleimani, the leader of the Quds force which is actively supporting Assad’s forces. The fascinating part of the essay is the way he exposes all the possible options for a US-Iranian alliance on a host of issues and how those options have not been acted upon. Perhaps the nuclear agreement with Iran will finally break open the impasse between the two countries. Wikileaks has published a memo from John Brennan the Director of the CIA entitled “The Conundrum of Iran” which reads, in part:
“The gratuitous labeling of Iran as part of a worldwide “axis of evil” by President Bush (date?) combined with strong U.S. criticisms of Iran’s nascent nuclear program and its meddling in Iraq led Tehran to the view that Washington had embarked on a course of confrontation in the region that would soon set a kinetic focus on Iran. Even Iran’s positive engagement in helping repair the post-Taliban political environment in Afghanistan was met with indifference by Washington. According to James Dobbins, the Bush Administration’s first U.S. envoy to Afghanistan, Iranian diplomats made important contributions to the success of U.N. sponsored negotiations that resulted in the inauguration of the Karzai Government in Kabul. But unlike the foreign ministers of other nations involved in those negotiations, Iran’s foreign minister did not receive a personal note of thanks from his U.S. counterpart, despite, according to Dobbins, the fact that he ‘may have been the most helpful.'”
It is truly unfortunate that the US has not been more receptive to the common interests of both countries.
The primary concern of many in the climate change debate has been over the role of carbon dioxide as a major culprit in the process. There is another greenhouse gas, methane, which is a more powerful agent in the process which has not received as much attention because it is not something that is largely emitted in the normal burning of fossil fuels. But methane is trapped in permafrost which is soil that is more or less permanently frozen because of the low temperatures in the polar regions. And there is accumulating evidence that as global temperatures rise, more of the permafrost is melting, releasing tremendous amounts of methane. The Global Terrestrial Network for Permafrost has been studying the problem of melting permafrost, and, according to one of the researchers, “the recent rate of warming of this frozen layer of earth is ‘unbelievable’.”
One of the under-appreciated elements of power is what IR analysts call “soft power”. Unlike “hard” power like military weaponry or economic heft which is fundamentally coercive, “soft” power refers to a state’s attractiveness to other states in matters primarily of culture. Thus, rock music or Levis were part of America’s soft power in the Cold War: people in other countries liked rock and roll and/or jeans, and thus had a degree of affection for American culture. Perhaps the most dynamic manifestation of American (and Indian) “soft” power is movies. American films often have very large international audiences. But sometimes there are deep cultural problems with some movies, and countries often block the showing of some movies. China apparently does not like references to spiritual matters such as ghosts and Chinese censors have blocked the recent American movie, “Crimson Peak”. In anticipation of such moves, some American producers edit specific scenes in and out of their movies to appeal to international audiences.
Syrian President Assad made a surprise visit to Moscow as Russian President Putin emerges as a power broker in Middle Eastern politics. Russia is flexing both its military and diplomatic muscles in an attempt to preserve Assad’s position. Putin has also been on the telephone with a number of leaders in the Middle East, trying to assuage their apprehensions about a final political settlement in Syria. There is little question that Putin has outmaneuvered the West with this gambit; whether he can make good on his promises remains to be seen. In many respects, Russia has more to fear from the Islamic State than does the West.
At least 14 campuses in South Africa have been closed because of student protests against tuition increases. The protests, however, also signal widespread dissatisfaction with political governance in South Africa as young people express their views on how the government regards them and their future. The students have marched on the South African Parliament, and it is safe to say that the protests represent a significant challenge to the traditional ruling parties in South Africa.
Argentina is holding a national election on Sunday and few in Argentina expect the results to change much in terms of the sluggish economy or the unresponsive politics. President Cristina Fernandez has overseen a steady deterioration of the economy during her terms in office, and the ruling party candidate, Daniel Scioli, does not offer genuinely different policies. Those policies have led to capital flight out of the country, high inflation, and slow growth. His opponent, Mauricio Macri, is trailing in the polls and his policies roughly correspond to traditional neoliberal economic policies.
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