The Justice and Development Party (AKP) in Turkey won a decisive victory in the snap elections on Sunday. The results obviate the need for a coalition government and will undoubtedly strengthen the hand of President Erdogan who made no secret of his desire for single party rule in the run-up to the election. The results were a blow to the Kurdish parties and the Republican People’s Party (CHP). The Organization for Security and Co‑operation in Europe and the Parliamentary Assembly of the Council of Europe both raised doubts about the legitimacy of the election, noting the violence encountered in certain election districts. But those doubts will not affect the outcome at all.
The US Department of Defense spent $43 million to build a compressed natural gas station in Sheberghan, Afghanistan making it the world’s most expensive gas station. Similar gas stations in neighboring Pakistan cost about $500,000 to build. The gas station was built in order to prove that such stations were feasible for automobiles, but no one can explain why this particular gas station cost so much. The Task Force in charge of building the gas station was decommissioned last March and apparently there is no one who can answer any questions about the gas station at the Pentagon. The “fog of war” is clearly a source of incredible corruption.
Stephen Kinzer was a reporter for the New York Times and has written extensively on Iran. He has published a rather long essay on life in Iran now that is definitely worth reading. There are so many misconceptions about Iran in the West, fueled by incessant government propaganda, that it is difficult for many in the West to truly understand what is going on in the society. Kinzer gives a very good summary of the major issues dividing the West and Iran but offers a great deal of hope that the nuclear deal can signal the beginning of a better relationship.
Another publisher has been murdered in Bangladesh. Faisal Arefin Dipan published the works of Avijit Roy who was murdered last February. Roy was a blogger who sharply criticized religious fundamentalism in Bangladesh. Defenders of secularism has have a tough time in Bangladesh as religious extremists seek to impose religious law in the country. Bangladesh’s Prime Minister, Sheikh Hasina, has criticized those who defend secularism and has been quoted as saying that writers should “not hurt anybody’s [religious] feeling. When you are living in a society, you have to honor the social values, you have to honor the others’ feelings.”
It is impossible to know Russian President Vladimir Putin’s true objectives in moving into Ukraine and Syria. But Tim Marshall argues that geography explains a great deal of Russian motives. Marshall argues that the relatively flat “European plain” is a very inviting corridor for those who wish to invade Russia (think Charles XII, Napoleon, and Hitler), and Russia is constantly worried about creating defensive barriers to such invasion by controlling countries along its western border. Geopolitics can explain a great deal.
There are fires burning in the forests of Indonesia that are emitting more carbon dioxide than the US does. Not only are the trees and other vegetation burning, but the underlying peat is burning as well. The smoke pervades Indonesia and spreads to Singapore and Malaysia as well. The threat to endangered animal species is quite high, as is the threat to human lives. The last time fires were as widespread in Indonesia as they are today, 17,000 children died from the effects of the smoke.
The Permanent Court of Arbitration at The Hague has ruled in favor of the case submitted by the Philippines concerning maritime claims in the South China Sea and has accepted jurisdiction on the case. The ruling is a setback to China which had claimed that the court had no jurisdiction over the matter, and China had not submitted any materials to the court disputing the case bright by the Philippines. China rested its refusal on Article 298 of the UN Conference of the Sea which reads, in part:
“Article 298. Optional exceptions to applicability of section 2
“1. When signing, ratifying or acceding to this Convention or at any time thereafter, a State may, without prejudice to the obligations arising under section 1, declare in writing that it does not accept any one or more of the procedures provided for in section 2 with respect to one or more of the following categories of disputes:
(a)
(i) disputes concerning the interpretation or application of articles 15, 74 and 83 relating to sea boundary delimitations, or those involving historic bays or titles, provided that a State having made such a declaration shall, when such a dispute arises subsequent to the entry into force of this Convention and where no agreement within a reasonable period of time is reached in negotiations between the parties, at the request of any party to the dispute, accept submission of the matter to conciliation under Annex V, section 2; and provided further that any dispute that necessarily involves the concurrent consideration of any unsettled dispute concerning sovereignty or other rights over continental or insular land territory shall be excluded form such submission;
(ii) after the conciliation commission has presented its report, which shall state the reasons on which it is based, the parties shall negotiate an agreement on the basis of that report; if these negotiations do not result in an agreement, the parties shall, by mutual consent, submit the question to one of the procedures provided for in section 2, unless the parties otherwise agree;
(iii) this subparagraph does not apply to any sea boundary dispute finally settled by an arrangement between the parties, or to any such dispute which is to be settled in accordance with a bilateral or multilateral agreement binding upon those parties;(b) disputes concerning military activities, including military activities by government vessels and aircraft engaged in non-commercial service, and disputes concerning law enforcement activities in regard to the exercise of sovereign rights or jurisdiction excluded from the jurisdiction of a court or tribunal under article 297, paragraph 2 or 3;
A ruling could be issued sometime in the first half of 2016, and it is probable that other states may now join the Philippines in pursuing legal redress. How China will respond to this ruling has yet to be seen.
The Responsibility to Protect (R2P) is a new doctrine in world politics which insists that sovereignty is not merely a right of nation-states, it is also an obligation to protect innocents from war crimes, atrocities, and genocide. In such cases the world community has an obligation to override sovereignty and to protect these innocents. Unfortunately, R2P has not been implemented well. A team of researchers has analyzed the shortcomings of the doctrine and pose some changes necessary to make it more effective.
Reuters is reportingthat the US will be sending a “small” number of special operations forces to Syria. This is the first time that combat troops have been sent to Syria. The troops will be in support of the Syrian Free Army, a small rebel force opposed to both the Assad regime and the Islamic State. The move places the US in opposition to the Russian and Iranian forces which are operating in Syria in support of Assad. Given that Russian planes have been bombing the Syrian Free Army, one can only hope that the US and Russia have been carefully talking about how to avoid confrontation.
China has announced that it is ending its “one-child” policy. The policy was implemented during the early years of the People’s Republic as a way to avoid overpopulation. It has, however, led to several problems. From a public policy point of view, the policy led to a demographic shift which made older Chinese people the dominant age cohort. That shift has led to labor shortages and constant upward pressure on wages. But the policy was never popular among the Chinese people who tended to favor boys over girls. That preference led to female infanticide and corruption as couples bribed officials to permit another child in hopes of getting a male child. On the other hand, the pressure for smaller families is just as intense in China as it is in other wealthier countries.
The Christian Social Union (CSU), one of the parliamentary partners in Angela Merkel’s coalition government, is threatening to leave her cabinet in protest over her handling of the refugee crisis. Such a move would threaten Merkel’s ten-year hold on German politics and expose a growing cleavage in German society. The issue of immigration is fast becoming a highly volatile one in German politics and one that could lead to a change of government.
The US strategy in the Middle East suffers because it is largely incoherent. The US seems to be reacting to events and does not seem to be guided by a vision of what its true goals and interests in the region actually are. Part of this incoherence, however, is due to the fact that US allies in the region are operating at cross-purposes. For example, Turkey seems to think that the Kurds are more of a threat tot Turkey than the Islamic State. And even though Iranian interests and American interests in the region are growing closer, the US seems to be reluctant to embrace that politically inconvenient fact. Until the US makes its own objectives crystal clear, then it is unlikely that its allies will be able to support a sustained or coherent policy.
China continues to forge a different path in economic and political development. Rather than rely exclusively on markets and representative democracy, China develops central plans to guide the overall economy which are then implemented at different levels of government. But the Chinese government makes a concerted effort to elicit public support for the plans and, over time, the government has become even more sophisticated in selling its Five Year Plans. Such as releasing this video to appeal to young people:
Income inequality continues to worsen in the US (and globally). The most recent indicator of income inequality is in retirement incomes. The Center for Effective Government and the Institute for Policy Studies have released a study that shows that the retirement accounts of the top 100 CEOs average about $49.3 million per executive, or a combined $4.9 billion. That amount is equal to the entire retirement accounts of 41 percent of U.S. families — or more than 116 million people. It is highly unlikely that these CEOs really care about whether Social Security remains solvent in the coming years.
In a rather stunning development, Iran has been invited to join the talks about a negotiated settlement in Syria. The move undoubtedly strengthens the position of Syrian President Assad since both Russia and Iran favor his continued rule. It also represents a setback for the US position which favors Assad’s removal. It is probable that the Obama Administration is now moving toward the Russian/Iranian position although it will likely not make that statement. The invitation also elevates Iran’s position in the Middle East which is a setback for Israel and Saudi Arabia. The chessboard pieces are moving quite fast right now.
The sovereign debt crisis in Europe seems to have receded after the recent Greek elections and Greek compliance with the austerity demands of the troika. But appearances can be deceiving. Portugal is also a highly indebted country, and its recent inconclusive elections, in which the center-right party that accepts austerity managed to maintain control of the government even though the anti-austerity left-wing parties garnered 62% of the final vote, will lead to an extended period of stalemate and drift. A heavily indebted country can ill afford a weak government.
Despite a ruling by the International Court of Justice that its whale killings do not constitute scientific research, Japan has indicated that it intends to continue hunting whales in the Antarctic. Scientific research is one of the two exceptions to whale hunting granted by the international community (the other is hunting by indigenous peoples who have traditionally hunted whales for food), but the International Court of Justice found that Japan was not in fact conducting any research at all. In response Japan said that the ICJ’s jurisdiction “does not apply to … any dispute arising out of, concerning, or relating to research on, or conservation, management or exploitation of, living resources of the sea”. Most international legal scholars would disagree.
The USS Lassen, an Arleigh Burke class destroyer, sailed within 12 nautical miles of Subi Reef (which the Chinese now call Nansha Island), one of the reefs that China has claimed as its national territory. The US insists that international law does not recognize sovereignty over reefs (an accurate portrayal of international law); the Chinese insist that they have built up the reef to become an island which does qualify as national territory (again, an accurate position except for the fact that international law does not recognize “man-made” islands). The Chinese protested the action and declared that additional forays by the US Navy may “trigger eventualities.” The Chinese called in the US Ambassador to lodge a formal protest and the Chinese navy shadowed the Lassen as it sailed passed the reef.
Research published in the journal, Nature Climate Change, indicates that temperatures and humidity in the Persian Gulf may become so unbearable because of climate change that lives will be in danger. The evidence suggests that the combination of heat and humidity may be so intense that children, the elderly, and those who have to work outside may be unable to sweat sufficiently to lower body temperatures and may die of hyperthermia. The Gulf region may be the place where we first experience the upper limit of human adaptability to climate change.
In response to the recent violence in Jerusalem, Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu has ordered a review of the residency status of thousands of Palestinians who live in East Jerusalem. Israel claims the entire city of Jerusalem as Israeli territory and the Palestinians regard East Jerusalem as the capital of a Palestinian state. The Israelis currently seize the property of Palestinian families if any member of the family commits an act of terrorism, and Palestinians fear that this proposed review is a prelude to the wholesale exclusion of Palestinian property in Jerusalem. Such a move would undoubtedly trigger off another round of violence.
The polls indicate that the right-wing Law and Justice Party has won 39 percent of the vote in Sunday’s Polish election. Apparently not a single left-wing party received the necessary 8 percent of the vote to be represented in the Parliament. If these results are accurate, they signal a sharp shift in Polish politics reflecting strong skepticism toward the European Union and a harsh attitude toward immigrants. Undoubtedly, the Law and Justice Party will also demand a harder line against Russia. Germany and France cannot be pleased with the results.
As the Italians almost did several years ago, Guatemalans have elected a comedian as Prime minister. In 2013, Beppe Grillo, a comedian in Italy, led what he called the 5 Star Movement to protest the corruption of Italian politics. The Guatemalans has elected Jimmy Morales as their Prime Minister. He campaigned on the platform of “not corrupt, not a thief” which resonated quite strongly in a country that has experienced blatant and rank corruption in the past. How Morales will govern is unknown: he has never held an elected office. The outcome conforms well to the poll conducted by Chapman University and reviewed in the blog yesterday.
Chapman University conducts an annual poll asking Americans to rank their fears (on a scale of 1-4). Here are the 2015 results. I find it fascinating that government corruption tops the list (even above clowns).
The Complete List of Fears, 2015
The following is a complete, list of all of the fears addressed by the Chapman Survey of American Fears, Wave 2 (2015), including the percent of Americans who reported being afraid or very afraid.
In November 1983 NATO conducted a military exercise, codenamed “Able Archer”, which the Soviet leadership interpreted as a prelude to an American nuclear attack. Americans were told that the exercise was nothing more than that. But in the context of President Reagan’s aggressive Cold War rhetoric, the Soviet Union believed that the exercise was a feint. In 1990, the President’s Intelligence Advisory Board issued a report, which was classified, that indicated how close the world came to a nuclear war. That report has now been made available and it makes for chilling reading. We will see how the American public reacts to this new information, if at all.
Today is a big day for elections. Elections are being held in Argentina, Poland, Tanzania, Guatemala, Haiti and Ivory Coast. Except for Poland, all of these states are somewhat fragile politically, so we;ll have a good test of how deeply democratic sentiments are held across the planet. Argentina will have to choose a new candidate since the current President, Cristina Fernández de Kirchner, cannot run again. She and her husband have dominated Argentine politics for many years. Poland will also be closely watched to see if the movement in Europe toward more nationalist, anti-immigrant parties, will be captured by the Law and Justice Party.
We tend to think about poverty in the developed and the developing world as being fundamentally different. In many respects, there are very important differences. There is, however, one aspect of poverty–agricultural poverty–which is remarkably similar in both the rich and the poor worlds. Indeed, in many respects, the poor in rich and poor states have more in common with each other than they do with their national rich counterparts.
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