Canada has just completed its longest and most expensive national election and has shifted from the center-right government of Stephen Harper (who had been Prime Minister for ten years) to a center-left government of Justin Trudeau (the son of a former Prime Minister). The change in policies are likely to be dramatic, the most notable of which is a move toward more stimulating central government fiscal policy. The Liberal Party government is somewhat of an anomaly in a world of governments that are shifting toward the right.
The earth has experienced five previous mass extinction events (that we know of). Researchers are arguing that human-induced changes in the environment are moving us toward a sixth mass extinction event that will unquestionably have catastrophic effects on humanity. According to The Guardian:
The scientists argue then that the changes would be so extreme, and so unlike anything that the Earth has ever seen before, that it could represent a geological shift as big as the rise of microbes on the planet or the rise of multicellular organisms.
Many of the most extreme changes can yet be avoided, but there is little question that some changes have already been set into motion. It is hard to tell how much time the world has to change course.
Many analysts are becoming quite concerned about the development of military robots. With advances in artificial intelligence, it is highly likely that weapons could be roboticized to deal with situations that commanders might believe are too risky for human soldiers. That impulse is certainly admirable, but a real danger exists that the ease of killing without risk to soldiers (as evidenced by the dramatic increase in the use of weaponized drones) might lead to unintended and catastrophic consequences. The time to think about the pitfalls of such innovations is before the weapons are developed. The rapid development of atomic weapons without any thought about the practical effects of the existence of such weapons is a clear example of the technology outpacing our sense of ethical behavior.
One of the problems in the climate change discussion is that we usually only experience changes in weather and not climate. Climate is long-term weather and we usually only recognize day-to day changes well. In addition, we have only been keeping relatively accurate measurements of surface temperatures since the 1880s. But NASA has a video which portrays temperature anomalies since the 1880s which pretty much describes a process of climate change.
Doors are closing throughout southeastern Europe as countries try to stem the flow of refugees. Hungary closed its borders, shunting the refugees into Croatia. But now Slovenia is closing its doors on the refugees coming through Croatia and Croatia is threatening to close its doors. And further down the line of countries, both Macedonia and Serbia are talking about not taking in any more refugees. Which means that the refugees will be stuck in Turkey and Greece. And winter is definitely coming.
Three universities in South Africa have shut down after student protests made it impossible for them to hold classes. The students were protesting a 10% increase in fees which they say undermine attempts to diversify the once all-white universities. The universities, like virtually all universities in the world, are suffering from reductions in state monies. The students in South Africa believe that the state has an obligation to make higher education accessible.
Iran has begun implementing the nuclear agreement: it has invited the International Atomic Energy Agency to inspect its facilities with no restrictions and has begun to dismantle many of its centrifuges. The sanctions on Iran are also schedule to be lifted in phases and Iran is getting ready to re-enter the world petroleum market. The global market for oil is still depressed and Suadi Arabia shows no sign of restricting its production. So Iran will be able to sell its oil but at a reduced price. Nonetheless, Iran is willing to sell as much oil as the market can handle.
Efforts to dissuade Russia from taking actions that jeopardize international stability, such as the Russian intervention in Ukraine, have not been particularly successful. One of the reasons why they have failed is that Russia has managed to insinuate its economic strengths deep into the process of globalization. From Russian oil and natural gas sales to Europe, to Russian citizens buying property in London, and to extensive cyberhacking into large corporations, Russia has made the costs of disapproval quite high. If the West wishes to limit Russian influence in other areas of the world, it needs to address the extensive financial Russian networks first.
The Swiss People’s Party (SVP), a staunchly anti-immigrant party, is poised to take up to a third of the seats in the lower house of the Swiss Parliament. The strength of the SVP was not expected and the gains of the party will shift Swiss politics from center-left to center-right. Switzerland has not really been affected by the refugee crisis yet, but apparently the Swiss voters take the issue very seriously.
The Navy Times has published an essay which succinctly lays out the US position as it is apparently sending naval vessels within the 12-mile limit of reefs that China claims are islands within the South China Sea. Xinhua has published an editorial which attempts to refute the US position. The Xinhua essay mentions the Cuban Missile Crisis as an analogy to the current situation. While the Cuban missile crisis may be a good example of US arrogance, it is not really a relevant analog since the US was never claiming that Cuba was within US territorial waters.
There is a movement in Germany called the Patriotic Europeans Against the Islamization of the Occident (Pegida) which has been quiescent for the last few months but which has been revived by the movement of refugees into the country. The movement is virulently anti-Islam and has been implicated in many acts of arson against refugee camps. It is also mobilizing political sentiment against Chancellor Merkel which is making handling the refugee issue more difficult. A candidate for mayor of Cologne was stabbed in the neck by an anti-refugee individual.
Egypt has begun the process of electing a new Parliament which will likely conclude in December. Both Houses of the Parliament have been suspended by the former General Abdel Fattah el-Sissi who overthrew the elected President Mohammed Morsi in 2013. The political process is carefully controlled and the political repression in Egypt is as great as it was under the rule of the former dictator Mubarak who was overthrown in the Arab Spring protests of 2011. The prospects for the return of democracy do not seem to be great.
The China Times is an official news outlet for the Chinese Communist Party and it has published an editorial that suggests that China intends to react to any US naval provocations in the South China Sea. China has built up reefs and built military capable facilities on those reefs. It claims the built up reefs as part of its national territory. The UN Conference on the Law of the Sea, however, does not recognize reefs as part of national territory. The US has announced that it intends to send naval vessels within a 12-mile limit (the traditional boundary of national terriroty as defined in maritime terms) of those reefs. According to international law, the US has the right of innocent passage. According to the Chinese:
“If the US encroaches on China’s core interests, the Chinese military will stand up and use force to stop it.”
We will have to see if a confrontation occurs.
Manohar Lal Khattar, chief minister of the northern state of Haryana in India, has urged all Muslims in the country to give up eating beef out of respect for the sentiments of Hindus. Khattar belongs to the ruling party of Narendra Modi and his call came after a mob lynched a Muslim man because of a rumor that he had eaten beef. In a newspaper interview Khattar was quoted saying:
“They can be Muslim even after they stop eating beef, can’t they? It is written nowhere that Muslims have to eat beef, nor is it written anywhere in Christianity that they have to eat beef.”
The comments are likely to inflame tensions between Muslims and Hindus in India.
The Russian offensive in Syria has raised many questions about Russia’s ultimate intentions. The key question is whether Russia’s objectives are limited to those confined to Syria itself, or whether the objectives represent a gambit with much more global scope. At this time we don’t have enough information to answer this question, but the German newspaper Spiegel raises some perspectives that can help narrow the possiblities.
The US has admitted that it knew about the location of a hospital run by Doctors Without Borders in Afghanistan days before it bombed the hospital. US President Obama has apologized for the attack, but the new evidence suggests that the humanitarian violation was far more serious than has been admitted thus far. The US explanation for the bombing has changed on almost a daily basis and it is very difficult to figure out exactly why this attack was carried out.
Forest fires in Indonesia have released almost 995 million metric tons of carbon dioxide equivalent emissions so far this year. The smoke from the fires, many of which are deliberately set to make way for palm plantations, are visible from space and have caused serious respiratory problems in neighboring countries. The fire problem will likely only worsen as this year’s el Niño make drought conditions in Indonesia more probable.
As global economic growth continues to decline, the difficulties of some countries in repaying their debts will increase. Since the global credit crisis of 2008, global debt levels have actually increased to about $200 trillion (up $57 trillion since 2008). The debt levels do not seem acute right now since interest rates on the debt are effectively at zero percent. But if interest rates return to more normal levels, the debt burdens will probably be unsustainable for many countries. We should be prepared for another credit crisis at some point in the future.
Israel has announced several new security measures to stem the violence that has occurred in Jerusalem over the last few weeks. According to the Jerusalem Post, these measures include:
* In addition to the demolition of terrorists’ homes, no new construction will be permitted at the site where a terrorist’s home was demolished.
* The property of terrorists who perpetrate attacks will be confiscated.
* The permanent residency rights of terrorists will be revoked.
* The operational force of the Israel Police will be enlarged and expanded.
* Three hundred additional security guards will be recruited for public transportation in Jerusalem at a cost of NIS 80 million.
* IDF [Israeli Defense Force–the formal military] units will reinforce the Israeli Police in Israeli cities and along main roads.
* The IDF will be instructed to deploy units in sensitive areas along the security fence. Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu also directed that staff work be done to complete the security fence, including in the southern Hebron Hills area.
The violence appears to be quite extensive. According to NBC News:
According to the Palestinian Health Ministry, 30 Palestinians have been killed in clashes and other violence since Oct. 1. In addition, more than 4,200 have been injured in West Bank and Gaza, the Red Crescent says. Over that same period, the Red Cross says seven Israelis have been killed and 99 others wounded.
Unfortunately, there is no way to independently verify that these figures are accurate. US Secretary of State Kerry is on his way to Israel, but it is not at all clear what proposals or advice he could be bringing to help stoop the violence. Nor is it clear that his presence will have any effect at all.
Russian President Putin has stated that the US has not been at all helpful in identifying targets in Syria that are controlled by the Islamic State. His comments suggest that US complaints about Russian targeting of rebels opposed to Syrian President Assad are purely political. Indeed, his characterization of the US position was blunt:
“I think some of our partners simply have mush for brains. They do not have a clear understanding of what is really happening in the country and what goals they are seeking to achieve.”
Putin’s comments were also made in the context of what appears to be a major offensive by the Syrian government, Russian airpower, and Iranian ground forces against the rebels near the town of Aleppo.
The World Bank has issued a new report on global youth unemployment and its conclusions are sobering. The world simply is not creating enough jobs to handle the expected growth of young people seeking them. Its assessment is as follows:
“Over the next decade, a billion more young people will enter the job market—and only 40 percent are expected to be ableto enter jobs that currently exist. The global economy will need to create 600 million jobs over the next 10 years: that’s 5 million jobs each month simply to keep employment rates constant.” (pp. 10-11)
Given the current economic growth rates in the world those objectives are not attainable. The political consequences of this failure are likely to be greater instability and violence.
Credit Suisse is one of the world’s largest banks and every year it does a survey of global wealth in an effort to identify individuals who fall into the category of “High Net Worth.” The results of its survey are consistent with those of previous years: wealth inequality continues to grow globally. In 2015 0.7% of the human population owned 45.2% of the world’s wealth; the bottom 71% of the human population owned 3.0% of global wealth. It remains to be seen if this maldistribution of wealth suggests a problem of systemic underconsumption.
An inevitable consequence of the growing Russian involvement in the Syrian civil war was Russian identification as an enemy of the extremists. The phenomenon is known as blowback and al Qaeda in Syria has called for attacks on Russian soil in retaliation for the Russian attacks in Syria. The Russians have had a serious problem with extremists from Chechnya, and, according to the Pew Foundation, the Muslim population in Russia is the largest in all of Europe in absolute numbers and is projected to grow:
“Russia has the largest Muslim population in absolute numbers in all of Europe. The number of Muslims in Russia is projected to increase from about 16.4 million in 2010 to about 18.6 million in 2030. The Muslim share of the country’s population is expected to increase from 11.7% in 2010 to 14.4% in 2030.
The growth rate for the Muslim population in the Russian Federation is projected to be 0.6% annually over the next two decades. By contrast, Russia’s non-Muslim population is expected to shrink by an average of 0.6% annually over the same 20-year period.”
The average Muslim population for all of Europe is about 8% of total population.
Illegal fishing along the West African coast is destroying the livelihoods of many local fishermen in the region. The factory trawlers, largely from China and Russia, have capabilities that far exceed those of the local fisherman and are leading to radically declining catches. Many species are being hunted to extinction and the fishermen generally have no other alternatives to keep their families alive other than fishing.
Humans tend to have selective perceptions: we sometimes think some matters are crucially important when , in fact, they are not likely to affect us at all. Such is the case with acts of terrorism. There is no question that terrorism is a part of modern life and we are told to be hyper-vigilant about looking for signs of terrorism. We are, however, more likely to be harmed by other aspects of modern life, but are assured that those conditions are simply something we need to accept. Such is the case with gun violence in the US.
Roger Cohen is an op-ed writer for the New York Times and is generally regarded as a thoughtful. left-of-center analyst. He has written an essay describing President Obama’s foreign policy as the “Doctrine of Restraint.” Cohen believes that other states, notably Russia, have taken advantage of Obama’s unwillingness to use US power to counter aggressive moves. The essay raises a fundamental question in world politics: is the only way to prevent war is to threaten counter-war?
British pilots flying sorties against the Islamic State in Iraq and Syria have been outfitted with air-to-air missiles. This ordinance reflects a change from the satellite-guided gravity bombs that the British aircraft have been carrying. The change also reflects a change in the strategic stakes because now the British are sharing the airspace with Russian pilots. The change does not mean that the British pilots are targeting the Russian planes but only that they are prepared to defend themselves if attacked. However, the change reflects how dangerous the security dilemma can be. The Russian have protested the change in the rules of engagement as provocative.
The Syrian Observatory for Human Rights, an independent Non-Governmental Organization, has indicated that the Syrian government has retaken territory from anti-government rebels. The advance comes with heavy Russian support. Few of the sites bombed were held by the Islamic State, so the advance comes at the expense of the “moderate” Syrian rebels that Washington has supported. We have got to be cautious in interpreting the military situation on the ground in Syria since there will be few independent observers to confirm what is happening. Russian President Putin mocked the failed US effort with these words:
“It would have been better to give us $500 million [the aid the US had given to the moderate Syrian rebels], … at least we would have used it more effectively from the point of view of fighting international terrorism.”
Just a day after two bombs blasts killed Kurdish peace activists, the Turkish government bombed sites controlled by the PKK, a group dedicated to Kurdish autonomy which had declared earlier a unilateral cease-fire. There is no reason to necessarily believe that the two events are related, but one would think that if the Turkish government truly believed that the Islamic State was responsible for the bombings, then it would have attacked IS sites. What remains to be seen is how these events will affect the elections scheduled for 1 November.
The German government has been open to the possibility of allowing many Syrian refugees to migrate to Germany. But public opinion polls now suggest that more Germans do not favor that policy. Chancellor Merkel remains popular in Germany, but her support from the conservative parties in Germany seems to be slipping and is swinging to some of the eurosceptic parties.
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