There are intense negotiations going on between Britain and the European Union. British Prime Minister has threatened to hold a referendum that would allow the British to vote on whether Britain should remain within the European Union. In order to forestall such a vote, Cameron has demanded many concessions from the EU. There are principally three major demands.
First, Britain wants to be able to cap welfare payments to non-British Europeans who have moved to Britain to take advantage of Britain’s generous welfare system. This demand would violate the EU’s position that all Europeans should be treated equally by all members of the Union.
Second, Britain wants British banks to be held to different financial requirements for banks within the EU. Britain believes that its banks would suffer from the EU rules; the EU believes that the exemption would give British banks an unfair competitive advantage.
Third, the British want the EU to drop its aspiration of an “ever closer union.” The British believe that the phrase threatens British sovereignty; the other EU members believe that it should remain as the ultimate goal of the Union.
The EU is at this moment relatively weak, buffeted by the difficulties caused the the sovereign debt crisis of some of its southern members and the domestic political pressures on its most important member, Germany, caused the the refugee crisis. Thus, the EU is likely to move toward these concessions, but it remains to be seen whether it can offer enough to Britain.
Since the overthrow of Libyan leader Muammar Qaddaffi five years ago, Libya has descended into total chaos. There are two rival factions, one based in Tripoli and the other in Benghazi, that claim to be the legitimate Libyan government, but no one is in control. There is considerable evidence that Daesh (the Islamic State) has been planning to move into this political vacuum in case its hold on its territory in Iraq and Syria. US warplanes attacked Daesh sites in Libya for the second time in three months indicating that the war against Daesh knows no territorial boundaries.
January 2016 was the warmest January ever recorded, and not by just a little bit but by an astonishing 0.3°F degrees. The warmth of the month was due to two factors: the strong el Niño and a shift in the Arctic Oscillation that lead to about freezing temperatures in the Arctic. According to Joe Romm: “In January the Arctic averaged a staggering 13.5°F (7.5°C) above average.” The effect on the ice in the region was quite dramatic as the extent of winter ice was the lowest we have ever seen. If temperatures do not turn around dramatically, the ice melt in the summer may be the largest ever seen. The planet may be warming faster than even the most pessimistic models have predicted.
Venezuela’s economy has pretty much stalled out. The inflation rate in the country is 180% and the economy contracted by nearly 6% from last year. In response, the country has devalued the bolivar, the national currency and raised the price of gasoline by about 6000% (don’t gasp–it is still very low since the fuel remains heavily subsidized). The causes of the distress are clear: Venezuela relies on selling oil for about 95% of its government revenues and the government of President Maduro has woefully mismanaged the economy.
The main opposition leader in Uganda, Kizza Besigye, has been arrested on election day and is being held in an unknown location. The government has shut down several polling stations and has cut off internet connections to several social media sites like Facebook. These events indicate that President Yoweri Museveni will remain in power and that Uganda remains far from becoming a democratic state.
All of the centrally-funded universities in India (there are 46 of them) have been ordered to fly 90-foot long Indian national flags on masts that are 207 feet high (about the same height as the Statue of Liberty). The flags are to be “prominently” and “proudly” flown on the campuses. The order from the BJP party government follows large student protests over the arrest of a student protester for “anti-India” activities. The order is curious because many of the student protesters carried the flag during their protests.
Max Fisher has written a somewhat long, but nonetheless provocative, essay on the reasons why the US invaded Iraq in March of 2003. The occasion for the essay is the current controversy within the Republican Party over charges made by Donald Trump that the Iraq war was a terrible mistake. Fisher argues that Trump and those who defend the war place too much emphasis on the issue of whether there were weapons of mass destruction in Iraq. Fisher argues, with a great deal of evidence, that the war was fought for ideological reasons and was in many respects predetermined.
China has apparently deployed anti-aircraft missiles on Woody Island, part of the Paracels Islands group in the South China Sea. The move signals an escalation of Chinese moves to claim the island group as part of its national territory. According to NBC News: “China has said it would not seek militarization of its South China Sea islands and reefs, but that did not mean it would not set up defenses.” Once again, we see the Security Dilemma in action: China considers its actions as purely defensive; other states could plausibly argue that the action was offensive. The US has not yet responded to the move.
Woody Island as seen in Google Maps
A car bomb exploded in the Turkish capital of Ankara, killing 28 people and wounding many more. There was no immediate claim of responsibility for the attack, but the two most likely sources of the bomb are either the Kurdish PKK or Daesh (the Islamic State): both groups have reason to attack the Turkish state. We will have to wait for further evidence to determine the culprits. But the attack will undoubtedly trigger a harsh Turkish response, and the Turks will likely decide who it is that is most convenient for them to blame.
The Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) is meeting in Rancho Mirage, California, and US President Obama is serving as host to the meeting. President Obama is hoping that ASEAN will coalesce around a stronger position vis-a-vis China on a variety of trade and maritime issues. Typically, ASEAN operates by consensus which has been hard to obtain since Cambodia and Laos are closely tied to China. But the growing fear of Chinese dominance in the region is forcing many members of the group to seek closer relations with the US to serve as a counterweight to Chinese power.
Russian air power in Syria has certainly turned the tide of battle in favor of Syrian President Assad. But some analysts believe that Russia is also deliberately creating refugees in Syria in order to place pressure on Turkey and Europe to adopt a more conciliatory stance toward Russian positions. There is little question that civilians have not received the attention from attacks that they deserve, and the air attacks certainly seem to be indiscriminate. Yesterday, four hospitals and a school were hit by air attacks.
Kizza Besigye, the chief opponent to current President Yoweri Museveni in the upcoming Ugandan elections, has charged that the elections will not be free or fair. A Besigye supporter was killed yesterday in a political rally and there is concern that the police and security forces are being used to intimidate the opposition. Museveni came to power in 1986 and has ruled exclusively in Uganda since that time. The economic situation in Uganda is perilous and the government has not been effective in stimulating the economy.
The tensions between the Kurds and the Turkish government are escalating into what can probably be described as a civil war, reminiscent of the civil war fought between the two sides between 1984 and 1999 which killed about 40,000 people. Turkish President Erdogan has recently stated that he intends to “annihilate” the fighting forces of the Kurdish Workers’ Party (PKK), and that there is no Kurdish question, only a “terrorist question.” The civil war is clearly hampering the efforts to address the problem of Daesh and will likely complicate Middle East politics for an extended period of time.
The largest student protests in over a quarter of a century have erupted in India. The protests center around a student leader, Kanhaiya Kumar, who has been accused of sedition for raising questions about the hanging of a Kashmiri separatist, Mohammad Afzal Guru, who was hanged in 2013 for his alleged role in an attack on the Indian Parliament in 2001. The student protests are directed toward the government of Prime Minister Narendra Modi who the students believe is stifling the freedom of dissent. In turn, Modi’s supporters accuse the students of “anti-Indian” sentiments. The struggle is clearly ideological.
The Silk Road is coming back. China has spearheaded a drive to built a land-based transportation infrastructure through central Asia which will ultimately connect Chinese seaports to Europe. The land route is quicker than the normal route by sea which should result in considerable savings for China. But the plan is also a significant boost to Iran and the central Asian republics.
Researchers at the University of Twente in the Netherlands have released a report that indicates that “4 billion people around the globe — including close to 2 billion in India and China — live in conditions of extreme water scarcity at least one month during the year. Half a billion, meanwhile, experience it throughout the entire year.” Agricultural practices are by far the most important cause of this water scarcity; those practices are the things we should think most carefully about changing.
There is little question that income inequality is increasing throughout the world. We suspect that that economic inequality has an effect on perceptions of political inequality, but the link between the two phenomenon is difficult to measure. Researchers have attempted to determine that link in terms of the European Parliament and its relationship to European citizens. There seems to be a negative link in that as economic inequality increases, trust in political institutions seems to decline. The link makes intuitive sense, but we need to conduct more research on how strong that link is.
The world’s third largest economy showed deeper signs of weakness than analysts had expected. Japan’s economy declined by 1.4% on an annualized rate in the fourth quarter of 2015. The economy showed weakness across the board as consumer demand fell as well as export demand. The Bank of Japan has already introduced negative interest rates and it is not at all clear what the next step for the government may be. But the Japanese economy has been stagnant for nearly 20 years and there are few reasons to believe that the economy will revive any time soon.
There appears to be a serious escalation in the works in the Syrian civil war. Turkish Foreign Minister Mevlut Cavusoglu indicated that both Turkey and Saudi Arabia are willing to send ground troops into Syria to relieve the siege of Aleppo and to prevent the Assad from gaining control of the city. If such a move occurs, it will place Turkish and Saudi troops, both US allies, in direct confrontation with Russian air power. RT (once called the Russian Times) is labeling the decision by Turkey and Saudi Arabia as “catastrophic.” Iran is also warning Turkey and Saudi Arabia against the move.
There are many disputes in the world that are quite long-standing, but few rival the split between Roman Catholicism and Eastern Orthodox Christianity. The division between Western and Eastern Christianity dates back to 1054 BC, although the issue dividing them actually goes back even further. This week, however, the leader of Roman Catholicism, Pope Francis, and the leader of Eastern Orthodox Christianity, Patriarch Kirill, met in the Havana, Cuba airport. It is doubtful that the fundamental issues can be solved quickly, but, given the passions surrounding those issues, the meeting itself was extraordinary.
Virtually all analysts of world politics are aware that the international system is changing rapidly from the order established by the US after 1945. What is unclear is what kind of order will replace the liberal order supported by the states that we generally call “The West.” A former German Foreign Minister, Joschka Fischer, contributes to the debate. While he does not outline a new order, he suggests certain things that it is unlikely to include.
The Director of US Intelligence warned Congress about emerging threats to the world, and one of those threats was the possibility of bio-terrorism. With recent advances, gene-splicing has become one of the most promising new technologies with potential for treating all sorts of diseases and conditions. Unfortunately, gene-splicing can also be used to alter bacteria in ways that could be dangerous to humans. The evidence is that the threat of “rogue scientists” working on such possibilities is real and almost impossible to detect.
A “cessation of hostilities” in Syria has been announced by the UN. The pause is fighting is designed to give humanitarian agencies to enter Syria and attend to the desperate needs of the population. While any stoppage is welcome, the agreement, signed by 21 countries in Munich, does not stop military actions against “terrorist” groups. This loophole is huge because there is widespread disagreement about which groups are terrorist: fighting can continue against the Islamic State, but Russia regards the Kurds, an American ally, as a terrorist group. Before one should condemn the agreement as too flawed, however, one should always welcome any positive step in the direction of helping innocents. Perhaps the agreement can lead to another, bolder step.
Greek farmers launched a major protest against proposed government changes to their pensions and their taxes. The changes are all part of the austerity measures imposed upon Greece as a condition for receiving financial support to pay back Greek government debt. Those changes have dramatically affected the daily life of all Greeks, and the economic declines have been both very difficult and long-lasting. Greece is pretty much into the sixth year of economic recession, and unemployment rates are on the order of 50% for young people.
Turkish President Erdogan has decided to use the Syrian refugees as a weapon in his pursuit of Turkish interests in Syria. Essentially, he has put pressure on Europe to put pressure on Russia to stop supporting Syrian President Assad and to foreclose European and US support for the Kurds. In a speech in Ankara, Erdogan is quoted as saying:
“We do not have the word ‘idiot’ written on our foreheads. We will be patient, but we will do what we have to. Don’t think that the planes and the buses are there for nothing….In the past we have stopped people at the gates to Europe, in Edirne we stopped their buses. This happens once or twice and then we’ll open the gates and wish them a safe journey, that’s what I said.”
Turkey is currently hosting about 3 million refugees and the threat of kicking them out of Turkey into Europe would likely have catastrophic effects on Europe.
The S&P stocks (considered to be a benchmark for the health of the US economy as a whole) has lost about $2 trillion in value since 1 January, and there seems to be a high degree of uncertainty in the bond markets as well. There are a variety of reasons why this decline is occurring, but the consequence of the declines is that all sorts of questions are being raised about the creditworthiness of many sovereign states who have a significant amount of debt. The fears are beginning to rattle the European markets and other countries like Venezuela and Nigeria. For the first time since 2012, some are beginning to talk about sovereign defaults.
Unfortunately, empires never completely die. Vestiges of imperial actions persist through time: Roman law still exists, many people speak English throughout the world, and Spain has some of the finest Islamic architecture ever made. But memories of empire also persist, and those memories often prove to be pernicious. A recent example is a comment made by venture capitalist Marc Andreeson tweet deploring an Indian decision to block certain policies of Facebook. He tweeted that “Anti-colonialism has been economically catastrophic for the Indian people for decades. Why stop now?” I sincerely doubt that many Indians regret kicking the British Empire out.
Boko Haram has launched a bomb attack against refugees in a camp in northeast Nigeria. The attack, launched by two female suicide bombers, killed at least 60 people and suggests that the Nigerian government’s efforts to contain the extremist group have not been effective. There has been an uptick in terror attacks since the beginning of the year which indicates that the group is still a potent insurgency despite the government’s claims to have taken back territory.
Turkish President Tayyip Erdogan blasted the US for its support of Syrian Kurds in the fight against Daesh. The speech indicates that Erdogan considers the Kurds to be a greater threat to Turkey than Daesh. Interestingly, the attack on the US comes just as information is beginning to surface that the Kurds are beginning to work very closely with the Russians, indicating that the US-Kurdish alliance is coming under strain.
The US Supreme Court ruled against President Obama’s attempt to regulate greenhouse gas emissions until it determines whether the regulations were legal. The decision throws a wrench into the recent Paris Agreement on limiting greenhouse gas emissions. Other countries, notably India and China, has suggested that if the US does not honor its commitment to the Paris Accord, then they may also reassess their commitments to the Accord.
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