Archive for the ‘World Politics’ Category
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The British government is warning that the British economy would face a “decade” of uncertainty if Britain leaves the EU. The report suggests that negotiating a withdrawal is much more complicated than simply saying goodbye. There would be a number of arrangements that would need to be re-negotiated. Those who support a Brexit believe that the report is nothing more than fear mongering.
The refugee crisis in Europe is boiling over as Austria and 10 other eastern European countries announce that they will no longer admit any additional refugees. Meanwhile, Greece, the first EU recipient of the largest number of refugees is demanding more help maintaining the refugee camps and has denied access to the media for many of the camps. It is unclear how Chancellor Merkel can maintain control over EU policy over this highly volatile issue.
The Philippines is asking China to honor the decision of the arbitration court in The Hague which is expected to rule soon on the territorial dispute in the South China Sea. Brunei, Malaysia, the Philippines, Taiwan and Vietnam also have claims on the Sea, but China has asserted that most of the Sea lies within its territorial limits. The Chinese have refused to participate in the arbitration and have publicly stated that they do not consider the issue to lie within the jurisdiction of the arbiter. The alliances within Southeast Asia are slowly shifting as a result of the competing claims.
I will only post one article today. It is a long article, but one that highlights the perils of humanitarian intervention as well as the mindset of Hillary Clinton who might well be the next President of the United States. The intervention in Libya was occasioned by a fear of a humanitarian crisis against the backdrop of American inaction in the Rwandan catastrophe in 1994, the clear evidence that the leader of Libya, Muammar Gaddaffi, was a ruthless dictator, and the sense that the turmoil in the Middle East that was called the “Arab Spring” demanded powerful Western support. Despite all these reasons, there were also voices that warned against an intervention because there was no way for the US to control the outcome. Unfortunately, the latter voices were ignored and now Libya is gripped by turmoil and poses a new security risk that did not exist before.
Thousands assembled in Russia to protest the lack of progress in solving the murder of Boris Nemtsov one year ago. Nemtsov was a vocal critic of President Putin and many in Russia believe that the President was involved in Nemtsov’s murder. The authorities have charged a group of Chechen men with the murder, but the accused men do not seem authoritative enough to have perpetrated the crime without orders from higher up. The protests reflect a broader sense of discontent within Russia as the economy has slowed down.
Early poll results in Iran indicate that reformers and moderates won handily in the national elections held on Friday. The elections were for the Assembly of Experts, which appoints the Supreme Leader, and for the national parliament, the Majlis. The early returns indicate that young people were primarily responsible for the outcome and that their major concern was over the health of the economy. The preliminary results are encouraging for those who look forward to more normal relations with the US.
Remarkably, the first day of the brokered “cessation of hostilities” (there is great reluctance to call it a cease-fire) in Syria seemed to have partially succeeded. Although there were several reports of violations, most of the major news agencies still present in Syria were reporting that the fighting had substantially subsided. The truce does not apply to Daesh (the Islamic State) or to the al-Nusra front (the affiliate of al-Qaeda in Syria), so all sides can still attack those two groups. The hope is that the truce will last long enough for humanitarian agencies to provide help. The truce also helps the government of President Assad since it silences the guns of most of his opponents.
Japan’s population has officially shrunk. According to The Washington Post: “The 2010 census showed a population of 128,057,352, but the 2015 figure, released Friday, shows just 127,110,000.” This change marks the first time a developed country’s population has shrunk. To maintain a constant population, the birth rate of a country needs to be around 2.1 births per woman; Japan’s birth rate is currently around 1.4 and almost a third of the population is older than 65 years. Japan’s experience is not unique, however, According to the UN about 48 countries will see their populations decline by 2050.
The refugee crisis in Europe manifests itself in different ways in different countries. There have been large protests in Germany; fences have been built in Hungary; and some countries, like Norway, are passing laws that are inconsistent with a long historical and humanitarian tradition. In Italy, some cities are passing laws to inhibit the development of non-Italian eateries, such as kebab restaurants, as well as the building of mosques.
One of the unanticipated consequences of the US’s preoccupation with terrorism has been the expansion of its military activities in Africa. With some important exceptions, the US very rarely sent troops to Africa, instead relying on European militaries to deal with security matters. However, the issue of terrorism, as well as the US inability to act effectively in the Rwandan genocide of 1994, led the US to establish USAFRICOM which was established in 2008 in order to give the US a military platform in Africa. Recently, the US has been increasing its special operations forces in western Africa, and has just decided to send troops to Nigeria to join the fight against Boko Haram.
The US is, by far, the world’s largest military spender. Indeed, every American citizen who pays taxes spends $3,300 per year on military equipment. Or, to put it another way, each American citizen spends more on the military than the per capita income of 70 countries.
The President of Bolivia, Evo Morales, campaigned hard for a change in the constitution to allow him to run for a fourth term. Morales was elected President at a time when there were a number of leftist leaders in Latin America such as Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva in Brazil, Hugo Chavez in Venezuela, Cristina Fernandez de Kirchner in Argentina, and Rafael Correa in Ecuador. Michelle Bachelet in Chile was re-elected President of Chile, but her popularity has waned in recent years. Bolivian voters, however, repudiated Morales and refused to pass the change. The left-wing seems to be losing power in Latin America, but the right-wing does not seem to be formulating a distinct alternative set of policies just yet.
The Financial Times is reporting that “…the value of goods that crossed international borders last year fell 13.8 per cent in dollar terms — the first contraction since 2009.” [Students will have to use a College computer to access this site unless she has a subscription to the newspaper] The news is particularly sobering since foreign trade usually outpaces economic growth. The decline suggests that the world may be entering a global recession or it may reflect a decline in the process of globalization. We should all keep an eye on this particular trend.
Thinking about the future is always a weird process. At times it seems threatening; at other times it seems promising. But, as we all know the future will be what me make of it. The outlook of technologists is always interesting and 800 of them were polled at the World Economic Forum and here is how they think the world will change by 2025.
India has decided to allow women to take combat roles in the armed forces. India now joins only a handful of countries which allow women to fight in combat situations. In the US, women recently got that right, but, in truth, American women have seen a great deal of combat in Iraq and Afghanistan even though that role was not officially sanctioned. Acknowledging the right to serve in combat should not suggest that women have achieved gender parity in the armed service: true parity means total and complete acceptance of women’s rights, and most of the world’s armed services are quite far from that threshold.
Norway’s Prime Minister Erna Solberg is going to introduce legislation that will prevent refugees spilling over from Sweden into Norway. [The link will bring you to the Norwegian newspaper, Berlingske which is written in Norwegian so I would recommend that readers use Google Chrome so that it can be translated into English] The legislation will allow Norway to reject refugees who do not come directly from a “conflict area”. So asylum seekers from any European country will automatically be rejected. Such a policy contradicts international law, specifically the Geneva Convention. For Norway to violate international law is an indication of how seriously Norwegians regard the problem.
China’s economic growth was fueled primarily by industrial investment. The government is currently trying to switch the engine of growth away from such investments into an economy driven by consumer demand. But the early emphasis on investment led to the building of many factories that are now overproducing goods as the Chinese economy begins to slow down. This production overcapacity is straining the Chinese economy, but it is also leading the government to try to export the overproduced goods abroad. This emphasis has led to a backlash, as producers in the importing countries believe that the Chinese are dumping goods at artificially low prices. Many of those producers are pushing their governments to erect trade barriers with the Chinese.
One of US President Obama’s earliest campaign promises was to close the detention center at Guantanamo Bay, Cuba. The facility has been used to hold suspected terrorists without trial, without the right to counsel, without the writ of habeas corpus, and to be subjected to torture and abusive treatment. Guantanamo is a major stain on the US’s commitment to human rights, but the US Congress has been unable and unwilling to create a process whereby the US could hold true to its values. Apparently, President Obama is making one last push to fulfill his promise, but it is doubtful that he will succeed.
Admiral Harry Harris, head of the U.S. Pacific Command, has warned that China is taking “actions that are changing in my opinion the operational landscape in the South China Sea.” Admiral Harris went on to assert: “I believe China seeks hegemony in East Asia.” The US has only an indirect interest in the South China Sea: it has important allies that rely upon freedom of navigation in the Sea, but the US has no direct presence in the region. The central question for the US is how to persuade the Chinese to guarantee the freedom of navigation in the region in a manner that would be acceptable to its allies.
Satellite Image of Chinese Construction on Cuarteron Reef
Russia and the US have announced another cease-fire in Syria. This cease-fire also excludes Daesh (the Islamic State) and the al-Nusra Front, but it appears as if Russia and the US have narrowed down the excluded terrorist groups to something a little more meaningful and substantive. There are hints that Syrian President Assad will be allowed to stay in office, but only for a part of Syria. The implication is that the territorial lines drawn by the British and French in 1920 may finally be redrawn. Regardless of the political outcome, we should all hope that the cease-fire takes hold so that humanitarian aid can be delivered to the innocent people of Syria.
It is estimated that human traffickers made almost $7 billion last year smuggling refugees. But Europol, the European Union agency responsible for coordinating security matters, estimates that there were very few radical extremists in the migration. The actual evidence belies the fears articulated by many in Europe and the US that terrorists will infiltrate using the confusion of the refugee influx as a cover. Unfortunately, it is unlikely that concrete evidence to the contrary will persuade the fear-mongers from spreading doubt.
Climate change caused by human activity is a proposition accepted by the vast majority of scientists who study climate. Nonetheless, there are some who doubt the proposition. The Heartland Institute is a think tank that regularly publishes materials that doubt the existence of human-induced climate change. John Abraham of The Guardian analyzes the most recent publication of the Institute and raises many questions about the credibility of the position denying climate change.
India experiences fresh violence from a different sector as protests erupted in India’s Haryana state. Members of India’s Jat’s caste have been protesting for different quotas in the Indian government and university system. The caste quota system has long been a source of controversy. Several people were killed in the protests and the protesters have temporarily shut down one of the canals that supply water to Delhi.
Turkey has suffered severe setbacks in its efforts to advance its national interests in the Middle East. It now faces an armed civil war along its southern and southeastern flanks, it has lost the support of one of its strongest allies, the US, and its actions have led it to the potential of an armed confrontation with Russia. Only a few years ago it seemed very likely to emerge as the dominant power in the Middle East in the wake of the Arab Spring and the emergence of the Central Asian states. Future international relations analysts will probably use Turkey, 2015-16, as a test case in how to mismanage foreign policy.
The Stockholm International Peace Research Institute (SIPRI) has released its annual report on the international arms trade. The US remains the worlds largest seller of arms, followed by Russia. The data indicate that many European arms producers are shifting their focus abroad as European governments are spending less on weapons due to the slow economic conditions in Europe. China has also dramatically increased its exports. India and Saudi Arabia remain the world’s largest importers of weapons.
As noted in earlier posts, the traditional alliances in the Middle East are under great strain. The longest running alliance, the US-Saudi alliance, has been around since US President Franklin Roosevelt met with King Ibn Saud during World War II. But that alliance is now beginning to be questioned seriously. The US feels less bound to Saudi Arabia as the balance of power in the world petroleum industry has shuffled around in recent years. But it is the mistrust that appears to be growing over the intentions of the new King of Saudi Arabia, King Salman, which seems to be underlying the US questioning.
Roosevelt and King Ibn Saud
The European Union and British Prime Minister David Cameron reached an agreement that apparently met Cameron’s demands for change. But Cameron returned to Britain only to find that members of his own party did not believe that the concessions were sufficient. A national referendum is scheduled to be held on 23 June and his colleagues will campaign against continued British membership in the Union. Cameron now finds himself backed into an untenable position and the referendum could easily go against him.
Another traditional ally of the US, Thailand, is exploring the possibility of widening its relationship with other powers, notably Russia. The cooling of US-Thai relations began after the military coup that took place in May of 2014. After the coup, the US restricted the sale of weapons to Thailand in an effort to urge the Thai military to return civilian power. The Thai move complicates the US effort to rally southeast Asian countries to hold a harder line against Chinese influence.
World Politics News 