The African drought continues to worsen throughout the continent. Zimbabwe is the most recent country to declare a state of emergency: more than 25% of the population is now food insecure. The drought is pervasive across southern Africa and may be a consequence of the very strong el Niño. With the global collapse of commodity prices, none of the African countries is in a position to respond effectively to this crisis. Outside help is absolutely necessary.
German Vice Chancellor Sigmar Gabriel sounded a warning about the growth of the German right-wing political movements, asserting that their language is dangerously close to the rhetoric of the Nazis. Gabriel was referring to the strength of the Alternatives for Germany Party and the Patriotic Europeans Against the Islamisation of the Occident (PEGIDA) movement. Both are virulently anti-immigrant and Anti-Muslim movements who have casually tossed the term “traitor” against Chancellor Merkel. Meanwhile, French Prime Minister Manuel Valls has argued that emergency rules, adopted after the massacres in Paris, should be extended. Those rules have allowed the French state to conduct searches of thousands of houses in France.
Globalization has shifted around the economic winners and losers throughout the globe. It is safe to say that the winners have truly done well, and these winners really span virtually all the nation-states in the world. The losers are well-distributed as well, but the main losers are those who worked in manufacturing jobs and lost them to low-wage workers in other countries. Stephen Rattner has asked a very pertinent question in an op-ed piece for the New York Times: what are our obligations to those who have lost their jobs?
A fire has been burning for over a week in a garbage dump near Mumbai, India. The fire is so large that it can be seen from space and the smoke pervades the city. The problem is globally endemic: we are running out of space for our waste and need to figure out how to produce much, much less.
It seems as if the Syrian government is advancing against rebel positions near the city of Aleppo. If these reports are accurate, then it appears as if President Assad will be in a much stronger military position in the civil war. to the relief of his allies: Russia and Iran. But if true, it also means that the world should prepare for a significant increase in the number of refugees fleeing the country. Meanwhile, the peace negotiations in London have yielded promise of humanitarian assistance for Syria but absolutely no progress whatsoever in achieving some sort of settlement.
The Russians are accusing Turkey of making preparations for an incursion into Syria. An invasion seems to me to be highly unlikely, but the Turks have made it perfectly clear that they wish President Assad to be ousted from office. A more likely motivation for the Turks would be some sort of move to blunt the Kurdish successes against the Syrian government. Those successes have emboldened Iraqi Kurdish leader Masoud Barzani to push for an independence referendum by the Kurdish people, an outcome to which the Turks are adamantly opposed.
Over 13 million girls in Pakistan have never been to school. That difficult situation is explained by a variety of factors: prejudice against girls becoming educated, the need for children to work to support a family in poverty, and child marriages (11 percent of girls are married before the age of 15). We do know that one of the most important variables in a policy to eradicate poverty is to educate girls and young women. Fortunately, there are groups in Pakistan that are working hard to change the situation.
Japan is spending a considerable amount of money to reinforce its territorial claims to the island called Okinotorishima in the East China Sea. China has not contested the claim, but insists that the island does not satisfy the minimum requirements of the law of the sea to be used as the basis for a territorial claim. Nonetheless, the renewed Japanese activity to reinforce its presence on the island will undoubtedly provoke a Chinese response.
Okinotorishima
The current election cycle in the US has left a number of observers from abroad somewhat dumbfounded and horrified. The rhetoric of the campaigns are directed toward American audiences, but non-Americans hear the rhetoric as well. There is a sense when one reads international newspapers that the current elections are not an aberration, but rather an unvarnished window into some of the worst characteristics of American politics and culture. And, no doubt, Donald Trump is the primary villain in this point of view.
The US has indicated that it intends to quadruple its military aid to Europe. The increase reflects growing fears of Russian intentions in Europe as well as a sense that Daesh (the Islamic State) poses a greater security threat particularly in southeastern Europe. The US emphasis also reflects greater military spending by almost all of the European states. The Russians will undoubtedly regard these moves as especially threatening, but, given the deteriorating Russian economy, it is not clear what the Russian response might be.
Nest week will mark the Chinese New Year (it will be the Year of the Monkey) and the holiday brings about the largest annual human migration: probably close to 3 billion journeys during the 40-day celebratory period. Needless to say, the logistics of such moves are daunting and always subject to various problems. Right now, there are about 100,000 people trapped in Guangzhou due to snowstorms.
In 2013, the Indian judiciary decided that same-sex sexual relations were illegal, to the consternation of many who believe that sexual orientation is a basic human right. The Indian Supreme Court has decided to review that decision, opening the possibility that sexual orientation would be considered a human right. The move indicates that the Supreme Court may regard its earlier decision as incorrect. The debate in India reflects the issues surrounding the idea that human rights are universal or socially determined.
There have been hundreds of reports of harassment of women by refugee-seekers in Europe. These reports, difficult to confirm or to contextualize, have dramatically changed the discussions in Europe about accepting refugees. In response, citizens are forming vigilante bands who purported purpose is to protect women from further harassment. In Finland, these groups have organized into gangs called the Soldiers of Odin. These incidents are making a possible resolution of the refugee crisis virtually impossible.
The outbreak of the Zika virus in Brazil is a tragedy. But the tragedy has been compounded by the spread of a rumor that the outbreak is somehow related to the release of genetically modified mosquitoes in Brazil three years ago. The rumor started on Reddit and is only the most recent example of how “information” disguised as news corrupts the public discussion of serious matters. The Genetic Literacy Project has posted a convincing refutation of the rumor.
Boko Haram has launched another attack against people in Nigeria and reports suggest that nearly 90 people were killed, some burned alive. Boko Haram (the name translates roughly as “Western education is forbidden”) is an extremist group that has pledged allegiance to Daesh (the Islamic State). Since 2009 the group is responsible for the deaths of nearly 20,000 people and the displacement of 2.3 million.
The World Health Organization (WHO) is holding an emergency meeting as the number of cases of Zika infections continues to rise dramatically. The number of cases in Colombia has doubled in a week, and some authorities believe that there may be as many as 4 million active cases. There is currently no vaccine for the infection, and the evidence of the link between the virus and the birth defect, microcephaly, is still inconclusive but quite suggestive.
Europol, the EU’s police intelligence unit, estimates that as many as 10,000 migrant children have gone “missing.” Many children have arrived in Europe without other family members, and, while they are registered when they arrive, there are no effective institutions for keeping track of the children. While it is likely that many of these children may have been reunited with their families, it is also well-known that human traffickers are specifically targeting these vulnerable migrants. The refugee crisis continues to outpace the capabilities of the European Union.
A serious drought threatens the lives of about 10 million people in Ethiopia. The drought has been building for some time and may well rank as one of the most serious droughts of the 20th century. The country is pleading for additional outside assistance to avoid a catastrophe, but many of the traditional donors, such as the World Food Programme, are running out of resources.
It is difficult to imagine the destructiveness of modern war. Russiaworks is a Russian media outlet affiliated with Russian state broadcaster VGTRK and has captured video shots by drones of various battle scenes. It has uploaded a video of the destruction of the district of Daraya in the city of Damascus in Syria, and the footage is unbelievably dramatic. It is hard to imagine how the people of Syria have managed to survive such total destruction. Equally unimaginable is how impotent the world community has been is stopping the devastation.
The US has again sailed a destroyer within 12 miles of an island claimed by the Chinese as part of its national territory but considered international waters by the traditional definitions of international law. The US is acting not only to protect its own self-interest in the traditional definition of open seas, but also because it has been encouraged to protect the maritime interests of other states in the region, notably Vietnam and the Philippines.
In a desperate effort to finally restart the Japanese economy, the Bank of Japan has introduced negative interest rates which forces some bank depositors to pay banks to hold their money in savings accounts. All other efforts to stimulate the Japanese economy over the last 20 years have failed and the absence of growth in the world’s third largest economy (after the US and China) is a cause of great concern. The logic of the move is clear: the Bank of Japan hopes that the interest rate charges will force some savers to spend their money rather than keep it in a bank account. Such spending will presumably stimulate more economic activity. Other countries such as Sweden and Denmark, as well as the European Central Bank, have tried the measure, but there is no convincing evidence that the action had any significant effect.
Oriel College of Oxford University has decided that it will not remove the statue of Cecil Rhodes from campus. Rhodes was a pre-eminent British imperialist who dreamed of British colonies in Africa spanning from Egypt to South Africa. He also endowed the money that funds the prestigious Rhodes Scholarship, one of the most competitive academic awards available to US college graduates. Many believe that imperialism was a horrific crime against humanity and that those who were central to the enterprise should be pilloried, not honored. The debate over the statue is incredibly important and central to thinking about the different ways one can remember the past without necessarily honoring it.
Cecil Rhodes
France has indicated that it will unilaterally recognize Palestine as an independent nation-state if progress toward an Israeli-Palestinian negotiated agreement is not forthcoming in the near future. The French statement, in tandem with the speech by UN Secretary-General Ban Ki-Moon criticizing Israeli settlements in the West Bank, suggests that many have given up on the US-led moves to secure a negotiated two-state agreement. Without US support, the Israeli position has become increasingly isolated.
The World Health Organization (WHO) has issued a stark warning about the possible explosive growth of the Zika virus to perhaps as many as four million cases. The virus is carried by mosquitoes and it leads to a specific birth defect known as microcephaly which leads to babies borne with abnormally small heads and brains. The virus has spread rapidly throughout South America and there have been several cases in North America carried by tourists. As of now, there is no known vaccine and the danger to pregnant women and their babies is acute globally.
Germany, Finland, and Sweden have moved to toughen their rules governing the entry of refugees. The changes come about as the costs of addressing the needs of the refugees continues to grow at a rate that is perhaps unsustainable. The crisis is a clear indication that there are no solutions at the nation-state level; the only possible effective response to the overwhelming need has to be found in a coordinated international response. Relying upon purely national responses will undoubtedly bring about xenophobic backlashes.
Satellite information suggests that North Korea could be preparing a long-range missile test. The test comes on the heels of the disputed North Korean claim it had developed a hydrogen bomb–a technologically difficult feat. A long-range missile will expand the ability of North Korea to hit a wider number of targets if it were so inclined. Its sole purpose, however, is more likely to deter actions by the US that it regards as hostile. Unfortunately, the security dilemma prevents the US from accepting that more benign interpretation.
In a pre-emptive move, Saudi Arabia defended its military actions in Yemen as defense in its “backyard.” The UN has been conducting an inquiry into Saudi military actions in Yemen and its report is expected to be highly critical of Saudi actions as insufficiently protective of civilians. The Saudis believe that the Houthi rebels in Yemen are backed by its Middle East rival, Iran. The Saudis have been conducting airstrikes against the rebels since March of 2015, but a settlement of the issues seems far from likely.
There is an interesting controversy in Italy. Iranian President Hassan Rouhani visited Italy and nude statues at various sites he visited were covered-up. Some Italians were outraged at what they considered “cultural appeasement” to the Muslim President. Those Italians believe that the statues were part of Italy’s cultural heritage and should be accepted as such by visitors to the country. What is interesting about the controversy is that neither the Italian or Iranian side will admit asking for the cover-up.
Google has developed a computer system that has defeated a human opponent at the 2,500 year-old game of Go. Artificial Intelligence has mastered games such as Chess and even Jeopardy, but the success at Go is staggering. In a game of chess, each move has about 35 different consequences. In the game of Go, with its 19 x 19 grid, each move has about 250 possible consequences. According to experts: “there are more possible positions on a Go board than atoms in the universe.” And, unlike Chess in which brute force computing can ultimately work, Go requires adaptive learning by the intelligence: Google developed a computer system that, in the final stages, taught itself how to master the game.
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