Carbon emissions have increased this year ending hope that the leveling off of emissions over the last three years–“0.7 percent increase was reported in 2014, no increase in 2015, and 0.2 percent in 2016”–was a sign that sufficient progress was being made to avert climate change. Carbon emissions are projected to increase by 2% in 2017, higher than the trend line of 2006-2015: “human-caused carbon emissions have grown at an average annual rate of 3.5 percent since 2000, but at a slower pace of 1.8 percent between 2006 and 2015”. The data provides greater urgency to the climate conference scheduled for this week in Bonn, Germany.
“By failing to adequately limit population growth, reassess the role of an economy rooted in growth, reduce greenhouse gases, incentivize renewable energy, protect habitat, restore ecosystems, curb pollution, halt defaunation, and constrain invasive alien species, humanity is not taking the urgent steps needed to safeguard our imperiled biosphere.”
The letter follows the lead of a similar letter signed by scientists in 1992. The new letter contains graphs that, with the single exception of progress against ozone depletion, demonstrate significantly worsening trends in virtually every index of the health of the global ecosystem.
US President Trump is flying home from his Asian trip and there will undoubtedly be a wide spectrum of interpretations of what was accomplished. The South China Morning Post fairly comprehensive article on the Chinese view (published in Hong Kong but regarded as a media outlet favorable to the Beijing government) ran a of what actually was accomplished. The article suggests that President Xi was successful in diverting Mr. Trump from substantive discussions on trade, human rights, and Chinese activities in the South China Sea. The article notes that the $250 billion in commercial deals touted by Mr. Trump were only memorandum of understanding and not actual contracts. The Asia Times noted the use of the term “Indo-Pacific” as opposed to “Asia-Pacific” and referred to the rebirth of the Quadrilateral Security Dialogue which includes the US, India, Australia, and Japan–an alliance once considered as a counter-weight to Chinese power in the region. The original Quadrilateral Security Dialogue ended when Australia left the group, ostensibly under Chinese pressure. Its resurrection seems to be an objective spurred largely by Japan under the leadership of Shinzo Abe.
Poland celebrated its Independence Day today and 60,000 Polish nationalists marched to placards reading “Pure Poland, white Poland!”, “Refugees get out!”, and “Pray for Islamic Holocaust”. Poland received its independence in 1918 after World War I, having been occupied by Russia, Prussia, and the Austro-Hungarian Empire for almost two centuries. The marchers carried flags with the falanga symbol, a vestige of the far-right movement in the 1930s. Nationalism is definitely on the rise in many countries in the world, and fewer are afraid to embrace a “blood and soil” definition of nationalism.
Polish Marchers Falanga Symbol
The EU’s chief negotiator, Michel Barnier, gave a very grim prognosis on the British exit (Brexit) from the European Union. There have been six rounds of negotiations on Brexit, but the British government seems to be paralyzed on critical issues complicated by disarray within the Cabinet of Prime Minister May. The deadline for decisions on most issues is in December at the next meeting of the European Union in Brussels. By then, both sides must agree on how much money Britain would have to pay to honor its previous commitments to the Union even as it leaves the Union.
Agence France-Presse has published a short primer on the rivalry between Saudi Arabia and Iran. If one knows little about the relationship between the two states, it is a good place to start. Saudi Arabia has requested an emergency meeting to discuss the issue of Iran in the region. It might be better for the Arab League to discuss the plight of Yemeni Arabs who are suffering from a cholera outbreak complicated by incessant bombing by Saudi Arabia and a blockade of Yemen that is preventing needed humanitarian supplies from reaching the beleaguered citizens.
Visual Capitalist produced a very informative graph on how people in different countries regard globalization. The data are compiled by YouGov and cover 19 countries. One can go to a high resolution graphic which is easier to see by clicking here. The poll also includes attitudes toward international trade, direct foreign investment, and immigration. The data confirm that globalization has definitely engendered resentment in the richer countries, but it viewed more favorably by the emerging market states. The attitudes toward immigration are sharply negative, a result that is deeply troubling.
Three days after he was inaugurated, President Trump pulled the US out of the negotiations for the Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP). There were twelve countries involved in the negotiations but, importantly, China was not part of those discussions. In many respects, the TPP was viewed as a bargaining lever to address the significant economic clout of China. It turns out that the 11 remaining countries in the negotiations have decided to pursue the trade agreement without the US. The pact is now called the Comprehensive and Progressive Agreement for Trans-Pacific Partnership and it has dropped 20 of the most contentious issues, including an agreement on agricultural trade which was a real sticking point in the TPP. The original pact “would’ve boosted trade ties between the US and 11 countries along the Pacific Rim that have a combined GDP of $27.4 trillion.”
Today was “Singles Day” in China. It celebrates an old Chinese holiday, but took on a new life in 1993. According to Business Insider:
“Students at Nanjing University first celebrated Singles Day in 1993 as an appreciation of, you guessed it — being single. They picked November 11 (11/11) as an ode to the loneliness of the number one.”
Since 1993 it has become the most active commercial holiday in the world, larger than Black Friday and Cyber Monday in the US combined. The Chinese spent $25 billion in 2017. It is truly remarkable how quickly things have changed in China.
US President Trump delivered a speech to the meeting of the Asia-Pacific Economic Co-operation (Apec) group, outlining his vision of the US role in the region. Interestingly, he referred to the region as the “Indo-Pacific” rather than the more commonly used term “Asia-Pacific” ten times. The chosen term downplays the significance of China from the American perspective and emphasizes the role of India, the US’s preferred partner in the region. President Trump also identified several trade practices which have habitually been leveled against China without mentioning China by name:
“We will no longer tolerate the audacious theft of intellectual property. We will confront the destructive practices of forcing businesses to surrender their technology to the state, and forcing them into joint ventures in exchange for market access.
“We will address the massive subsidizing of industries through colossal state-owned enterprises that put private competitors out of business — happening all the time.
“We will not remain silent as American companies are targeted by state-affiliated actors for economic gain, whether through cyberattacks, corporate espionage, or other anti-competitive practices.
I am not sure what Chinese President Xi’s reaction to this rhetoric might have been, particularly since China had treated President Trump extravagantly just a few days earlier.
President Trump also singled out the World Trade Organization, one of the pillars of the liberal international system championed by the US since its earlier incarnation as te General Agreements on Tariffs and Trade, for harsh criticism:
“Countries were embraced by the World Trade Organization, even if they did not abide by its stated principles. Simply put, we have not been treated fairly by the World Trade Organization. Organizations like the WTO can only function properly when all members follow the rules and respect the sovereign rights of every member. We cannot achieve open markets if we do not ensure fair market access. In the end, unfair trade undermines us all.”
At this point, it does not appear as if there were any major decisions made at the summit, but we will wait to see if some were made secretly. Chinese President Xi offered a very different view of the global economy, declaring that globalization was “irreversible”.
“Because of the quantities released, the consequences of an accident of this magnitude in France would have required to implement locally measures of protection of the populations on a radius of the order of a few kilometres around the location of the release. Map identifying, on the basis of the model-measurement comparison, the most plausible release zone. For a simulated release at each point of the mesh, the comparison consists in estimating the percentage of modelled data which are within a factor of 2 compared to actual measurements. The area with the highest percentage is identified as the most plausible release zone. The exceeding of maximum permitted levels3 for foodstuffs (1250 Bq / kg for Ruthenium 106 for non-milk products) would be observed over distances of the order of a few tens of kilometres around the location of the release.”
So far neither Russia or Kazakhstan has admitted to a nuclear accident. But such matters cannot remain secret for long.
Map of the Ruthenium-106 over Europe
The publication of the “Paradise Papers” has rekindled interest in offshore banking and the institutional infrastructure devoted to the purpose of helping the extremely rich avoid paying taxes. We periodically re-acquaint ourselves with this legalized corruption but very little is ever done to prevent it. Spiegel has an article which explains why it has proven to be impossible to assure that everyone pays their fair share of taxes which inevitably leads to higher taxes on the poor and a reduction of services to people in desperate need of help.
On 9 November 1938, the Jews of Germany and Austria endured a horrific night, as Nazi-thugs destroyed the windows of their shops and homes. That night came to be known as Kristallnacht in reference to the sound of broken glass falling to the sidewalks. That night was not the beginning of the persecution of Jews in Germany–that persecution had begun almost immediately after Hitler was elected Chancellor in 1933. Even before Kristallnacht, Jews had been deprived of citizenship by the Nuremberg Laws (passed in 1935 and officially known as “Law for the Safeguard of German Blood and German Honor”) and restricted from certain economic activities and participation in Parliamentary elections. I suspect that most Germans were uncomfortable with each step taken against the Jews, but likely believed that none of those steps would ever lead to the horror of the Holocaust. The lesson is clear: any step to discriminate on any basis, no matter how small it seems, must be vigorously opposed. Staying silent only assures that the powerful will interpret the silence as a license for even more stringent steps.
Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates, and Kuwait have urged their citizens to leave Lebanon, following Bahrain which issued the same warning on Sunday. The warning comes after the resignation of Lebanese Prime Minister Saad Hariri and his subsequent disappearance in Saudi Arabia. The Lebanese believe that Hariri is being held under house arrest in Saudi Arabia, as many believe that Saudi Crown Prince Salman holds Hariri responsible for the growth of Iranian influence in Lebanon through its ally Hezbollah. There is rising concern that Saudi Arabia may be preparing to go to war with Lebanon, but I find that possibility unlikely given that Saudi Arabia already has its hands full in Yemen–Lebanon would be a much more difficult conflict to manage. Nonetheless, the regional tensions are reaching a fever pitch.
The Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation (Apec) conference begins on Friday in Da Nang, Vietnam. US President Trump will meet a number of foreign leaders, and each has a different set of issues with respect to the US. The Guardian has a nice summary of what to look for as President Trump meets with Russian President Vladimir Putin, Philippine President Rodrigo Duterte, New Zealand Prime Minister Jacinda Ardern, Australian Prime Minister Malcolm Turnbull (that meeting should be quite interesting given the hostile relations between the two), and Malaysian Prime Minister Najib Razak. One needs a scorecard for events as complicated as this one.
The confrontation between Saudi Arabia and Iran is one of the more complex conflicts in the world. The two states do not face each other directly, but are currently engaged through proxies in Syria, Iraq, Yemen, Qatar, and Lebanon. Simon Henderson gives a good account of why the recent missile attack on Riyadh, Saudi Arabia from Yemen represents a significant escalation in the dispute. Robert Malley offers a perspective from Lebanon which analyzes the fluidity of the alliances in the region and how Israel and the US, although not yet directly involved, create a destabilizing environment. For its part, Iran blames Saudi Arabia for the tensions and that the US is manipulating Saudi Arabia for its own purposes.
The US State Department has suffered tremendous personnel losses over the last year. Under the leadership of Secretary of State Rex Tillerson many career Foreign Service officers have simply left. According to Zack Beauchamp in Vox:
“The number of people in each of those posts has declined dramatically since President Trump took office in January. The number of minister counselors in the State Department has gone down by 15 percent, career ministers by 42 percent, and career ambassadors by a whopping 60 percent.”
Due to hiring freeze imposed by Tillerson, many positions are being left unfilled and there is not a younger cohort being groomed to step into positions of higher responsibility. According to Max Greenwood writing for The Hillthe number of applicants to the Foreign Service has dropped by more than half in the last year.
“In some parts of the city, the levels of PM 2.5 — insidiously small particles that can settle deep in the lungs — had climbed to more than 700 micrograms per cubic meter, which is considered hazardous to breathe, according to data provided by the Delhi Pollution Control Committee. Scientists estimate these particles have killed millions.”
That level of PM 2.5 is more than 10 times the level considered safe.
Saudi Arabia has asserted that Lebanon has “declared war” on the Kingdom, signaling its objective of removing Hezbollah from power in Lebanon. The statement follows the resignation of Lebanese prime minister Saad al-Hariri, a strong ally of Saudi Arabia. Saudi Arabia considers Hezbollah an Iranian ally and its fears of Iranian influence in Lebanon were accentuated when “Iranian official Ali Akbar Velayati trumpeted his regional alliance’s success from Beirut last Friday, declaring victories in Iraq, Syria and Lebanon.” It is not clear what Lebanon’s future looks like. Hariri was part of a coalition government with Hezbollah as its main partner and it is unclear whether Hezbollah can work with any other partners in forming a new government. Lebanese politics are some of the most complicated of any nation-state on the planet. It endured a brutal civil war from 1975-1990 and its governments can only form when all parties act in good faith. On Lebanon, Israel and Saudi Arabia share the same objectives which complicate the politics significantly. Israel’s Channel 10 has published a secret Israeli cable from the Foreign Ministry that outlines Israel’s support for the Saudi moves (the page is in Hebrew, but Google can translate it).
Today marks the 100-year anniversary of the Bolshevik Revolution in Russia. It was the second revolution in Russia in 1917. The first, in February, overthrew the Czar because of massive discontent with the war situation and widespread incompetence and misery. In the past days of the Union of Socialist Soviet Republics (USSR) the day was one of great celebration; today it is observed only by the few ardent communists left in Russia. The Russian President, Vladimir Putin, has said that he wished the Revolution had never occurred. The Bolshevik victory in 1917 is one of the most contested events in history with widely divergent interpretations of how Lenin and Trotsky were able to seize and consolidate power.
Perhaps the country we should all keep our eyes on in the effort to avert climate change is India. The US has leveled off its carbon emissions even though the Trump Administration has decided to leave the Paris Agreement–states and localities are taking care of emissions as the Federal Government defaults on its responsibilities. China has made incredible strides in renewable energy and seems firmly committed to reducing its emissions although its task remains formidable. India is also committed to renewable energy, but its poverty rate remains significantly higher than in China and it has far fewer options in terms of making a transition to non-carbon based fuels. Given its rapidly growing population, India is likely the country that will determine whether climate change can be avoided.
Since 11 September 2001 the US has engaged in many conflicts in what was called a “war on terror”. It has been a very expensive war that has been paid for by increased government debt and not tax increases. The US Department of Defense has released a 74-page report entitled “Cost of War Update as of June 30, 2017.” The report focuses only on the actual costs incurred because of combat operations and does not include future costs of the wars which will include medical care and pensions and other benefits guaranteed to military veterans. So it is a very constrained estimate of the costs of the war on terror. Nonetheless, it is extraordinary to know that even with this limited definition of cost, the US has averaged $3.6 billion a month on combat operations. The report is quite detailed and for those who wish to examine the entire range of expenditures necessary to support war. There are other, higher estimates of the costs of these wars. One is by the Congressional Research Service. The highest estimate, by the Watson Institute on International and Public Affairs at Brown University puts the costs at $4.79 trillion. The entire Defense Department budget is significantly larger, amplified by the massive military footprint the US maintains in its more than 800-military bases abroad.
Saudi Arabia’s Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman, the likely next King of Saudi Arabia and often referred to as MbS, launched a corruption purge of Saudi officials which included some of the highest ranking members of the royal family. Among those arrested include Prince Alwaleed bin Talal, one of the world’s richest persons and a major investor in many global corporations including Twitter, Lyft, and Citigroup. It is highly likely that Alwaleed will ask many of his co-investors, which include many of the richest people in the US, to intervene on his behalf. If those interventions actually occur, it will complicate US relations with Saudi Arabia tremendously. But corruption is hardly the main concern of the Crown Prince. Patrick Wintour, the Diplomatic Editor of the Guardian, interprets the move in this way:
“The crown prince will say the arrests show his determination to root out corruption, a precondition of a more open economy. But few think the arrests, and related ministerial sackings, are the independent decision of a new corruption body, established just hours before to replace an existing one, rather than part of a wider reshuffle to centralise all security authority under MbS.”
The Crown Prince has shown that he is not afraid to take risks, initiating a brutal war against rebels in Yemen he believes to be agents of Iran and cutting Qatar off from normal economic and political ties from other Gulf States. Neither of those moves has proven to be particularly effective, and we will see what the repercussions of this purge will be to Saudi political stability.
Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman
The International Consortium of Investigative Journalists, (ICIJ) has published an unbelievable number of offshore banking accounts which reveal the world of the very richest people in the world and how they use money that they were assured would be held secretly. The leaked documents, labelled the “Paradise Papers” reveal “the offshore ties of more than a dozen Trump advisers, Cabinet members and major donors”. For those with interest in pursuing some of the papers, the site offers the opportunity to search the 13.4 million records. The article lists some of the more prominent investors, and the activities are characterized in this way by the ICIJ:
“The offshore industry makes ‘the poor poorer’ and is ‘deepening wealth inequality,’ said Brooke Harrington, a certified wealth manager and Copenhagen Business School professor who is the author of ‘Capital without Borders: Wealth Managers and the One Percent.’
“’There is this small group of people who are not equally subject to the laws as the rest of us, and that’s on purpose,’ Harrington said. These people ‘live the dream’ of enjoying ‘the benefits of society without being subject to any of its constraints.’”
These loopholes are very expensive to create and therefore beyond the means of most people. But once created, they shelter trillions of dollars from taxation.
One of the fundamental tenets of the liberal ideology is that the state should not discriminate against any citizen on the basis of religion (as well as other attributes, such as race or ethnicity). But many nations strongly identify with a specific religion. Indeed, some have official religions. The tensions between liberal states and various interpretations of the nation can be intense. For example, the Republican candidate for the US Senate in Alabama, Ray Moore, has said on various occasions that God’s law is above man’s law (Moore is a devout Christian). The tensions are apparent in many eastern and central European states who have moved from the official Communist position of atheism toward the liberal democracies of western Europe. The Pew Research Centerreligion affects the policies of many of these states. has evidence on how
The Lebanese Prime Minister, Saad Hariri, has resigned citing the growth of Iranian influence over his nation and fears over being assassinated. Hariri has been in office for 11 months and has not been able to exercise effective control over the government which is strongly influence by the Iranian-backed Hezbollah. Hariri gave the speech in Saudi Arabia and he said that Iran” “has a desire to destroy the Arab world and has boasted of its control of the decisions in all the Arab capitals. Hezbollah imposed a reality in Lebanon through force of arms, and their intervention causes us big problems with all our Arab allies”. The position articulated by Hariri dovetails almost completely with the official views of Saudi Arabia and the US.
World Politics News 