World Politics News   Articles for World Politics Course

There is a US diplomatic mission in Turkey right now as the US tries to repair its relations with what was once regarded as a key NATO ally.  Relations have been strained for a variety of reasons, but the major outstanding strategic difference right now is defining the US relationship to the Syrian Kurds who have fought well against ISIS but who the Turks regard as a serious threat.  Many Syrian Kurds, along with Arabs who fought together as the Syrian Democratic Force, a US-sponsored alliance, have left the battle against ISIS and have moved into position in the Afrin region of Syria to support the Kurds there.  The Kurds have shifted largely because the US is refusing to re-arm them and they feel betrayed by the US.  For the Syrian Kurds, the battle for autonomy is far more important than the fight against ISIS.  The Syrian government is moving to fill the vacuum created by the US move, and, in a major reversal, is now aiding the Kurds against Turkey.

A group of Indian scholars have been meeting to write a history of India that suggests that India is a Hindu nation.  The committee was not publicly appointed but its final report is expected to be embraced by the current government led by Prime Minister Narendra Modi who can be accurately described as a Hindu nationalist.  According to Reuters:

“Minutes of the meeting, reviewed by Reuters, and interviews with committee members set out its aims: to use evidence such as archaeological finds and DNA to prove that today’s Hindus are directly descended from the land’s first inhabitants many thousands of years ago, and make the case that ancient Hindu scriptures are fact not myth.

“Interviews with members of the 14-person committee and ministers in Modi’s government suggest the ambitions of Hindu nationalists extend beyond holding political power in this nation of 1.3 billion people – a kaleidoscope of religions. They want ultimately to shape the national identity to match their religious views, that India is a nation of and for Hindus.”

Needless to say, members of other religions are apprehensive about how the final report will affect their status in India.  But the report reflects the growing exclusivity of nationalism in the world.

Religions in India

We are beginning to get some of the dynamics arising from the recent Italian elections.  One possibility that has emerged is that the leader of the League Party, Matteo Salvini, may be tapped to form a coalition government.  Salvini is as close to a clone to Benito Mussolini, the leader of Fascist Italy during World War II, as one could imagine.  The Washington Post describes Salvini in these terms:  “He says he wants to close mosques, bolster Italy’s borders and take sovereignty back from the European Union. He praises Russian President Vladimir Putin for promoting traditional family values.”  Salvini has appropriated a favorite phrase of US President Trump and claims that he wants to put “Italy First”.

Matteo Salvini

South Korean envoys are reporting that North Korea has expressed its willingness to hold negotiations on the possible denuclearization of the Korean peninsula.   South and North Korea have held face-to-face negotiations in 2000 and 2007, but this is the first time that the current North Korean leader, Kim Jong Un, has met with South Korean officials (that we know of).  This news has been received by the US media as a significant move to reduce the tensions on the peninsula.  There may be reasons to be optimistic, but I would urge caution.  Such negotiations have been held in the past and the Congressional Research Service has a well-documented survey of the history of those negotiations.  But the history is not encouraging:

“The United States has engaged in four major sets of formal nuclear and missile negotiations with North Korea: the bilateral Agreed Framework (1994-2002), the bilateral missile negotiations (1996-2000), the multilateral Six-Party Talks (2003-2009), and the bilateral Leap Day Deal (2012). In general, the formula for these negotiations has been for North Korea to halt, and in some cases disable, its nuclear or missile programs in return for economic and diplomatic incentives. While some of the negotiations have shown progress, North Korea has continued to advance its nuclear and missile programs.”

First, we only have the report of the South Koreans.  I am sure those envoys are honest and sincere, but they are representing the current President, Moon Jae-in, who ran for office supporting a policy of engagement, not hostility toward North Korea.  President Moon has a clear stake in making progress.  We should wait to see what the North Korean report on the meetings say.

Second, North Korea is still working on its nuclear facilities.  38 North, a website maintained by the US-Korea Institute of Johns Hopkins University, is reporting that

“Commercial satellite imagery of North Korea’s Yongbyon Nuclear Scientific Research Center from February 25 indicates that the 5 MWe reactor continue to show signs of operation as indicated by steam vapor plumes emanating from the generator hall and river ice melt near the reactor. Under normal operations, we would also expect to see a cooling water discharge near the river outfall. And while vapor plumes have been noted a few times over the past year, no cooling water discharges have been observed to support this conclusion. However, we cannot rule out that the North Koreans may have suppressed this signature by extending the discharge pipe into the river. If the reactor is operating again, as the evidence suggests, it means North Korea has resumed production of plutonium presumably for its nuclear weapons program. It also means that the North has likely extended its cooling water pipeline into the river (rather than near the river) to better conceal the reactor’s operational status, making monitoring efforts more difficult going forward.”

Third, we do not have a clear idea of how North Korea defines “denuclearization”.  In the past, North Korea has insisted that the US and South Korea cease its joint military exercises.  The North Korean press, which is state-controlled, quotes the South Korean negotiator on how North Korea defines its interests:

“’The North clarified its will to denuclearize the Korean peninsula, and made it clear that there is no reason to possess nuclear weapons if the security of the North Korean regime is guaranteed,’ South Korea’s chief envoy to the talks Chung Eui-yong said.”

If the North Koreans define “denuclearization” in terms of the guarantee that the North Korean government will not be threatened, then the entire US-South Korean defense alliance comes into question.  it may ultimately involve the removal of the 30,000 US troops in South Korea.   It may be that his outcome is precisely what US President Trump wants.  Many years ago he was quoted as saying:

“‘I keep asking, how long will we go on defending South Korea from North Korea without payment?’ More recently he noted that when ‘the young man from North Korea starts acting up and having one of his fits, we immediately get our ships going. We get our aircraft. We get nothing for this.’”

I am certain, however, that such an action would be viewed with alarm by many analysts, particularly if there was no way to verify totally the North Korean commitment to destroy its nuclear arsenal and its knowledge base that fosters that nuclear program.  The Chinese and the Russians would be delighted; the Japanese would be alarmed. The North’s nuclear program has always been characterized by fits and starts.

Fourth, one can easily interpret North Korean behavior in recent months as simply one designed to buy time.  We know that North Korea has exploded six nuclear bombs and has tested a missile that puts its missile program at the outer reaches of US territory.  There really is no urgency to continued testing at this time and a great risk to continue testing.  The North Koreans have agreed not to test while plans are being put into operation for another South-North summit in April.  Time is really on the side of the North and not on the side of the US.

Having expressed these doubts,  the possibility that there may be an easing of tensions should be pursued vigorously. Buying time instead of waging war (which seems to be the only two possibilities for President Trump:  “the U.S. is ready to go hard in either direction!”) is the far better choice.

Kim Jong Un, right, greets Chung Eui-yong in North Korea

The Italian election produced no clear winner, but demonstrated the strength of anti-establishment sentiment in Italy.   The 5-Star Movement and the League garnered the most votes, but not enough to form a coalition government.  Nor does it seem as if the two parties are really interested in working with each other.  The traditional parties seem to have been completely repudiated by the electorate.  The League, formerly known as the Northern League, is an anti-immigrant party led by Matteo Salvini who managed to attract support in the south and is adamantly opposed to the European Union.  Italy’s difficulty is that these two parties will not work with each other, so forming a new government will be extremely difficult.   The European Union, relieved that Merkel will continue in Germany, will now have to wait for Italy to decide how it will interact with the Union.

North Korean leader, Kim Jong Un, met with South Korean officials in Pyongyang, the North Korean capital.  The North-South dialogue continues even as the official US position remains uncertain.  There is some ambiguity over whether the US is demanding that North Korean denuclearization is a precondition for further negotiations or whether the US is merely insisting that North Korea show a willingness to discuss denuclearization.  The difference may sound minor, but the North Koreans will not accept denuclearization as a precondition for discussions.

U.S. Trade Representative Robert Lighthizer has warned that negotiations to redraft the North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA) with Mexico and Canada have slowed down without an agreement in sight.  US President Trump’s recent announcement concerning tariffs on steel and aluminum has complicated the negotiations tremendously, and the issue was further clouded by statements that perhaps Canadian and Mexican steel and aluminum could be exempted from the tariffs.  I suspect that Canada and Mexico did not appreciate the heavy-handed approach to the negotiations and will be less likely to make concessions under such a threat.

The economic and political situation in Venezuela has reached a breaking point under the rule of President Maduro.  The inflation rate is the highest in the world, economic growth is at a virtual standstill, and basic commodities are simply not available.  As a result, Venezuelans are feeling the country.  According to The Washington Post:

“Nearly 1 million Venezuelans have left their country over the past two years, according to the International Organization for Migration, with experts citing a surge during the second half of 2017, when the economy took a sharp turn for the worse. That figure is in addition to the hundreds of thousands who departed between 1999 and 2015.

“Our migration levels are now comparable to Syria or to [the Rohingya going to] Bangladesh,” said Tomás Páez, an immigration expert at the Central University of Venezuela. More than 1 million Syrians, Afghans, Iraqis and others fleeing war and poverty poured into Europe in 2015, and 650,000 Rohingya Muslims have recently fled persecution in Burma, seeking refuge in Bangladesh.”

The other Latin American states and the international community as a whole have ignored the crisis because of an unwillingness to intervene in what has traditionally been defined as an internal matter.  The Trump Administration, however, seems to be interested in fostering a regime change in Venezuela, which, if true, would be a disaster. Having said that, the world should not shirk from what is clearly a humanitarian crisis.

After six months of deliberation and debate, the Social Democratic Party (SPD) of Germany has voted to join Chancellor Angela Merkel’s governing coalition.  The vote in the SPD was overwhelming, testimony to the concessions Merkel was obliged to give up in return–six ministerial posts.   Nonetheless, the months of wrangling have weakened Chancellor Merkel in the eyes of the public.  The decision was also greeted with relief in the European Union although it is still waiting for the results of the Italian election being held today. 

One of the more interesting developments in the global balance of power is the growing strategic relationship between Russia and Iran.  The two  have never coexisted easily–Iran has always felt threatened by the expansive growth of its northern neighbor.  The two countries share a common interest in Syria because they both support the continuation of President Assad’s rule.  As that goal becomes more likely, many of us had anticipated that Russia and Iran would become more adversarial over how Syria would be ruled.  But the hostility of the US to both states seems to have overcome their natural suspicion of each other.  It seems that “the enemy of my enemy is my friend” now rules their foreign policy in the region.

The McKinsey Global Institute has released a new report entitled “How will automation affect economies around the world?”  It is a transcript of a podcast, so one can read or listen to it.  There are three interviews, one on China, one on Europe, and one on India.  Overall, the report is consistent with how automation will be accompanied by job displacement, but there are some very creative and interesting ideas on how to address job losses and adding new skills to the current workforce.  For example, one possibility is to integrate job training into current jobs:

“Why not make sure that instead of working so many hours a week, ensure a portion of it—2 percent, 3 percent, 5 percent of that—is actually devoted for new learnings. And these learnings, if you do them right, will give you the rights basically to get points for your pension in the future. In this concept, instead of adjusting the number of hours to work, because there will likely be a bit less work in the future, you will still work. But you work for the future. Firms have an incentive to possibly even co-finance because firms are not bad guys. They’re not there to take people out. They want people that are good at doing their job and complementary with capital. And for them, they need these skills, and these skills come from job trainings most of the time.”

The description of the Chinese response to automation is particularly interesting given the large population and the rate of economic change in China.  The Chinese seem to have thought long and hard about how to deal with unemployed workers.  McKinsey also has a report entitled “What can history teach us about technology and jobs?” and one entitled “How do we create meaningful work in an age of automation?”

Much of the world was highly critical of US President Trump’s announcement that the US would impose tariffs on imported steel and aluminum.  China was critical, but steel exports to the US account for only 2% of Chinese exports and China apparently wishes to hold its fire for a while.  Europe was highly critical.  According to The Washington Post:

“With this, the declaration of war has arrived,” said Bernd Lange, a German Social Democrat and head of the European Parliament’s trade committee, speaking on German public radio. “They have a mercantile trade model in their heads that dates back 200 years.”

The Europeans are threatening to impose tariffs on Harley-Davidson motorcycles, bourbon, and Levi jeans.  The more immediate problem for the US is that the countries most seriously affected are Canada, Mexico, and South Korea.  Damaging the Canadian and Mexican economies will definitely have a knock-on effect on the US economy.  South Korea is a strategic problem as well.  The US has been trying to stiffen South Korean resistance to North Korean overtures, but damaging the South Korean steel industry will make that task much more difficult.  However, it is still not clear what Mr. Trump plans.  His initial announcement was not cleared by his aides and may be changed.  He claimed that trade wars are “good” and “easy to win”.  History does not support that proposition.  Analyst Stephen Roach sums up the historical record well:

“Trade wars are for losers. Perhaps that is the ultimate irony for a president who promised America it would start “winning” again. Sen. Reed Smoot and Rep. Willis Hawley made the same empty promise in 1930, leading to protectionist tariffs that exacerbated the Great Depression and destabilized the international order. Sadly, one of the most painful lessons of modern history has been all but forgotten.”

The Italian general election is scheduled for Sunday and the polls suggest that Italians are deeply pessimistic about their future.  Right now the anti-establishment 5-Star Movement led by the former comedian, Beppe Grillo, seems to be leading in the polls but even its strongest supporters are not enthusiastic about the party.  The Pew Research Center ran a poll of Italian attitudes prior to the election and it suggests that the election will not likely resolve any of the major issues facing the third largest economy in the European Union.

Calamities ranging from drought to whitefly infestations have decimated farmers in the Punjab, the agricultural region of India.  According to the Asia Times: “A door-to-door survey in the districts of Sangrur, Bathinda, Mansa, Barnala, Ludhiana and Moga found that a total of 14,667 agricultural labourers and farmers committed suicide between 2000 and 2015.”  In response, Prime Minister Modi’s government is increasing prices to benefit the farmers, but the strategy will likely increase food prices in India dramatically.  Inflation in India is already at very high levels and the government does not seem to be able to halt the increase in prices.

In advance of a national election scheduled for 18 March in which he is all but certain to win, Russian President Putin gave a speech in which he noted that Russia has developed  new weapons systems he claimed make Russia “invincible” to nuclear attack.   It is very difficult to assess how credible these claims may be, but US analysts believe that one of them, a nuclear-tipped torpedo, is close to being deployed.  It is hard to imagine what such a weapon would be used for, but some analysts fear that it may be a cobalt bomb, popularly known as a “dirty” bomb, designed to make an area unlivable for many years.  What was most interesting about the speech is that Putin seemed most interested in making the world “listen” to Russia, revealing his primary interest in restoring Russia’s status as a great power.  The speech will undoubtedly be fodder for those who wish to increase military spending to counter the Russian moves.

US President Trump announced that he will levy tariffs of 25% on imported steel and 10% on aluminum.  The announcement was apparently off-the-cuff since the Administration was unable to identify the types of steel and aluminum affected and the specific countries that will be affected.  Nonetheless, the international response was almost immediate with US trading partners, Canada, Mexico, and the European Union, indicating that they would respond with tariffs on goods imported from the US.  The response in the US to the announcement was negative.  Steel and aluminum producers all hailed the move, but manufacturers who use steel and aluminum worried that the costs of their products would increase and might even lead to greater unemployment if demand does not meet the increased costs.  Mr. Trump identified China as the source of the problem in the steel industry, but as the chart below indicates, the US does not import much steel from China.  Raising tariffs only makes sense if one expects no other country to retaliate.  If other countries do retaliate, then everyone is worse off. 

Several Chinese dissidents have been placed under close surveillance and house arrest after they registered dissatisfaction with the decision of the Communist Party to allow the President and Vice-President to serve more than two consecutive terms.  The constitution had prohibited more than two terms in order to avoid the emergence of another leader in the mold of Mao Tsetung.  The change is viewed by many as a significant retreat from the development of strong democratic institutions in China.

In what should be the coldest part of the Arctic winter (the sun is still below the horizon during the “day”), temperatures are almost 50ºF above normal and it some places in northern Greenland the temperatures are actually above freezing.  The warm temperatures are an ill augur for sea ice this summer and problematic for weather patterns throughout the upcoming summer.  At the same time, Europe is experiencing unusually cold temperatures due to a blast of Siberian air coming in from Siberia (dubbed the “Beast from the East” by those unfamiliar with cold weather).  Rome has experienced its first snowfall in six years.  Climate change brings unpredictable weather.

Northern Hemisphere Temperatures                                                                              A Cold Front Coming into the City of London on Tuesday

I get press reports from the US Treasury on a daily basis and today I got a report that included a chart that is reproduced below.  I find the data fascinating because it reveals how much money is being held in offshore accounts although not necessarily by American citizens (many non-Americans buy US assets and also wish to hide them).  It is hard to believe that the people of the Cayman Islands (population 62,083), Luxembourg (population 537,039), Singapore (population 5,763,984), Bermuda (population 61,163), or the British Virgin Islands (population 31,543) are so phenomenally wealthy that they could own so much wealth on their own.  One cannot stash their money in such places cheaply, but apparently, if one is rich enough, it is quite common.

The RAND Corporation (a strategic think-tank that has been around for a very long time) has published a new book entitled “U.S. Presence and the Incidence of Conflict“.   The book, however, is available for a free download for those who has a special interest in US foreign policy.  The press release on the book summarizes its findings in this way:

“Troop presence and military assistance have different effects. Stationing U.S. troops abroad may help deter interstate war. A large U.S. regional troop presence may reduce the likelihood of interstate conflict in two ways: by deterring potential U.S. adversaries from initiating interstate wars or by restraining U.S. allies from initiating militarized behavior. However, U.S. military presence may increase interstate militarized activities short of war. U.S. adversaries may be more likely to initiate militarized disputes against states with a larger U.S. in-country troop presence. Troop presence and military assistance have different effects. Stationing U.S. troops abroad may help deter interstate war. A large U.S. regional troop presence may reduce the likelihood of interstate conflict in two ways: by deterring potential U.S. adversaries from initiating interstate wars or by restraining U.S. allies from initiating militarized behavior. However, U.S. military presence may increase interstate militarized activities short of war. U.S. adversaries may be more likely to initiate militarized disputes against states with a larger U.S. in-country troop presence. However, provision of U.S. military assistance may be associated with increased state repression and incidence of civil war.  “

I will likely download the book and read it in the near future.  Some of these conclusions conform to some of my own views on the US presence abroad.  I find the idea that “U.S. troop presence does not appear to reduce the risk of intrastate conflict or affect the level of state repression” highly suspicious.

The Anti-Defamation League (ADL) is reporting a dramatic increase in anti-Semitic incidents in the US in 2017.  According to its report:

“In its annual Audit of Anti-Semitic Incidents, ADL found that the number of anti-Semitic incidents in the U.S. rose 57 percent in 2017 – the largest single-year increase on record and the second highest number reported since ADL started tracking such data in 1979. The sharp rise was in part due to a significant increase in incidents in schools and on college campuses, which nearly doubled for the second year in a row.”

The last part of the paragraph is particularly troubling since it suggests (although does not prove) that anti-Semitism seems to be on the rise among younger people.  The rise in anti-Semitism parallels the rise of nationalist sentiment based upon ideologies of exclusion, a phenomenon that seems to be global in scope.  When Christians, Muslims, Jews, Hindus, and Buddhists engage in attacks against people who do not share their faith, it becomes virtually impossible to protect basic human rights for all.

The State Department’s top diplomat on Korean affairs has abruptly decided to retire, effective this Friday.  Joseph Yun has been with the State Department for 30 years and in the absence of a US Ambassador to South Korea, his departure leaves a large hole in expertise on how to deal with North Korea.  The Washington Post indicates that the resignation is due to frustration over the lack of influence over US policy toward the Korean issue.  Yun had been the point man in all dealings with Korea over the last few years and it is difficult to imagine how he can be replaced at a time when his experience might be of incredible value.  One would think that the Administration would have done everything possible to persuade Yun to stay on his post.  Yun himself is probably aware of the damage his resignation will incur, signalling the depth of his frustration with US Korean policy.

US National Security Agency Director, Admiral Mike Rogers, testified before the Senate Armed Services Committee that President Trump has not authorized him to “take any action to counter Russian election meddling.”  The testimony was unnerving since Special Counsel Mueller’s indictment of Russian individuals and institutions seems to prove quite clearly that there is “incontrovertible” (to use the word used by National Security Adviser McMaster) evidence that Russia intervened in the 2016 US election.  In ordinary circumstances, one would expect the US President to take every measure possible to prevent such interference by a foreign power to recur.  President Trump’s refusal to defend the country is remarkable.  Think what would have happened if President Roosevelt had decided to ignore the Japanese attack on Pearl Harbor on 7 December 1941.  Most observers would describe that lack of action as treason.

National Security Agency Director Admiral Mike Rogers

As the US begins what is certain to be a very contentious immigration and refugee debate, the Pew Research Center has compiled a fact sheet on the variety of programs to be discussed and the number of people who will ultimately be affected.  Immigration has always been a difficult issue for Americans despite the clear fact that the US is in fact a “nation of immigrants”.  But the surge of nationalist and anti-global sentiment in the world will make the upcoming debate unusually political.  As the debate unfolds in Congress and the media, it is important to rely on solid information.  Most specifically, we should all remember that there is no statistical correlation between immigration and crime or terrorism.

National Geographic has published an article on how some of the world’s most important lakes are drying up.  The significance of these changes, attributable to climate change to as a yet unknown degree, has been dramatic, although not well-publicized since the process of drying up is viewed as “natural”.

“In sheer numbers those fleeing “natural” calamities have outnumbered those fleeing war and conflict for decades. Still, these figures do not include people forced to abandon their homelands because of drought or gradual environmental degradation; almost two and a half billion people live in areas where human demand for water exceeds the supply. Globally the likelihood of being uprooted from one’s home has increased 60 percent compared with 40 years ago because of the combination of rapid climate change and growing populations moving into more vulnerable areas.”

Cape Town, South Africa, is a city of over 3 million people and it is on the brink of running out of water.  But Cape Town is only the first of the world’s major cities to face such a crisis.  São Paulo, Brazil, Bangalore, India, Beijing, China, Mexico City, Cairo, Egypt, and Jakarta, Indonesia are also highly likely to suffer serious water issues in the near future.

US President Trump and Mexican President Enrique Peña Nieto apparently had a very difficult telephone conversation which ended with the Mexican President cancelling his planned visit to Washington, DC.  There are serious trade issues being discussed between the two countries, but the main reason for the contention was President Trump’s insistence that he would not publicly affirm “Mexico’s repeated assertion that it will not pay for the construction of the wall.”  Despite Trump’s repeated assertions during the Presidential campaign of 2016 that Mexico would pay for the construction of the wall, Mexico has always held that it would not pay for the construction of a wall that Mexico considers to be insulting and racist.  It is very difficult to understand why such an unrealistic expectation would be allowed to jeopardize one of the most important relationships to the US society and economy.