World Politics News   Articles for World Politics Course

In what should be the coldest part of the Arctic winter (the sun is still below the horizon during the “day”), temperatures are almost 50ºF above normal and it some places in northern Greenland the temperatures are actually above freezing.  The warm temperatures are an ill augur for sea ice this summer and problematic for weather patterns throughout the upcoming summer.  At the same time, Europe is experiencing unusually cold temperatures due to a blast of Siberian air coming in from Siberia (dubbed the “Beast from the East” by those unfamiliar with cold weather).  Rome has experienced its first snowfall in six years.  Climate change brings unpredictable weather.

Northern Hemisphere Temperatures                                                                              A Cold Front Coming into the City of London on Tuesday

I get press reports from the US Treasury on a daily basis and today I got a report that included a chart that is reproduced below.  I find the data fascinating because it reveals how much money is being held in offshore accounts although not necessarily by American citizens (many non-Americans buy US assets and also wish to hide them).  It is hard to believe that the people of the Cayman Islands (population 62,083), Luxembourg (population 537,039), Singapore (population 5,763,984), Bermuda (population 61,163), or the British Virgin Islands (population 31,543) are so phenomenally wealthy that they could own so much wealth on their own.  One cannot stash their money in such places cheaply, but apparently, if one is rich enough, it is quite common.

The RAND Corporation (a strategic think-tank that has been around for a very long time) has published a new book entitled “U.S. Presence and the Incidence of Conflict“.   The book, however, is available for a free download for those who has a special interest in US foreign policy.  The press release on the book summarizes its findings in this way:

“Troop presence and military assistance have different effects. Stationing U.S. troops abroad may help deter interstate war. A large U.S. regional troop presence may reduce the likelihood of interstate conflict in two ways: by deterring potential U.S. adversaries from initiating interstate wars or by restraining U.S. allies from initiating militarized behavior. However, U.S. military presence may increase interstate militarized activities short of war. U.S. adversaries may be more likely to initiate militarized disputes against states with a larger U.S. in-country troop presence. Troop presence and military assistance have different effects. Stationing U.S. troops abroad may help deter interstate war. A large U.S. regional troop presence may reduce the likelihood of interstate conflict in two ways: by deterring potential U.S. adversaries from initiating interstate wars or by restraining U.S. allies from initiating militarized behavior. However, U.S. military presence may increase interstate militarized activities short of war. U.S. adversaries may be more likely to initiate militarized disputes against states with a larger U.S. in-country troop presence. However, provision of U.S. military assistance may be associated with increased state repression and incidence of civil war.  “

I will likely download the book and read it in the near future.  Some of these conclusions conform to some of my own views on the US presence abroad.  I find the idea that “U.S. troop presence does not appear to reduce the risk of intrastate conflict or affect the level of state repression” highly suspicious.