Just as there are anti-Jewish lunatics in the world, there are anti-Arab lunatics as well. In protest of a (much larger) left-wing pro-Palestinian demonstration, some right-wing Israelis held a counter-protest in which the deaths of Palestinian children was celebrated. The video of the counter-protest is below. As analysts, we all need to keep certain things in perspective. First, there are always irrational people involved in any political movement and it is crucial that their influence is not amplified by our sense of outrage–generally speaking, the fringe elements have limited power but they always get press attention. Second, anti-Arab sentiments are pervasive in many places in the world over many time periods, but no ethnic or religious hatred has the horrific legacy of anti-Jewish sentiment. For many reasons, we should be especially vigilant when anti-Jewish sentiment arises.
There is increasing evidence of a growing rift between President Obama and Prime Minister Netanyahu. Today, Channel 1 in Israel published a transcript of an alleged telephone conversation between the two leaders. Both the US and Israel have condemned the leak and denied that the transcript is accurate. It is highly likely that the transcript does not fairly represent the total tenor of the conversation, but the published excerpt is highly credible given what we know about the publicly stated positions of the two states. The excerpt is as follows:
Barack Obama: I demand that Israel agrees to an immediate, unilateral ceasefire and halt all offensive activities, in particular airstrikes.
Benjamin Netanyahu: And what will Israel receive in exchange for a ceasefire?
BO: I believe that Hamas will cease its rocket fire — silence will be met with silence.
BN: Hamas broke all five previous ceasefires. It’s a terrorist organization dedicated to the destruction of Israel.
BO: I repeat and expect Israel to stop all its military activities unilaterally. The pictures of destruction in Gaza distance the world from Israel’s position.
BN: Kerry’s proposal was completely unrealistic and gives Hamas military and diplomatic advantages.
BO: Within a week of the end of Israel’s military activities, Qatar and Turkey will begin negotiations with Hamas based on the 2012 understandings, including Israel’s commitment to removing the siege and restrictions on Gaza.
BN: Qatar and Turkey are the biggest supporters of Hamas. It’s impossible to rely on them to be fair mediators.
BO: I trust Qatar and Turkey. Israel is not in the position that it can choose its mediators.
BN: I protest because Hamas can continue to launch rockets and use tunnels for terror attacks –
BO: (interrupting Netanyahu) The ball’s in Israel’s court, and it must end all its military activities.
The position of the US is quite consistent with the leaked Kerry proposal for a cease-fire that was referred to in an earlier blog post (27 July 2014). Even if President Obama is adopting a harder line with respect to Israel, there is no evidence that the US Congress is changing in any way its strong support for Israel. And the 22 July CNN poll, the evidence is that the American people also strongly support the state of Israel. I suspect, however, that Israel would not change its policy even if the US decided not to support it in the current conflict.
On 28 July 1914, the Austro-Hungarian Empire declared war on Serbia after Serbia refused to capitulate to all of the Austro-Hungarian demands following the assassination of the Archduke Ferdinand and his wife in Sarajevo. On this, the 100th year anniversary of the beginning of the war that signaled the beginning of the end of the modern period and European domination of the world, The Economist, re-published the article it published after the event indicating its opposition to the war. There was no automatic alliance between the UK, France and Russia on that date, and many in Great Britain were inclined to stay out the continental war. Nonetheless, British leadership on that date was lacking, and those voices were lost in the political firestorm that followed.
On a happier note, today is the 146th anniversary of the 14th Amendment to the US Constitution. The Amendment was necessary to protect the civil rights of the African-American population, and it represents a major milestone in human history–a right whose enforcement had to wait for the Civil Rights Act of 1965–, codifying the right of all individuals to participate in their political governance. Constant vigilance, however, is necessary to make sure that the commitment to these rights is not eroded.
The recent spread of the Ebola Virus in West Africa has terrified health officials, and several care-givers have been infected and died as a result. Governments in the region have responded with quarantines which have proven difficult to enforce, and there is a deep suspicion among the population of health workers which limits the possibility for effective treatment. ABC News has posted a good primer on the disease and outlines the steps that have been taken so far. Further spread of the disease would completely overwhelm the health infrastructure of the countries in West Africa.
One of the truly troubling aspects of the Gaza conflict is the re-emergence of virulent anti-semitism in many of the pro-Gazan protests. There is absolutely no connection between Judaism and the current policies of the government of Israel in the Occupied Territories: the conflicts between indigenous peoples and dominant cultures (think Russia/Chechnya, China/Uighur, English/Scotch/Irish/Welsh, Tutsi/Hutu, Sunni/Shia are just a few examples) are ubiquitous in world politics. Religion is nothing more than a rationalization for what is always a political conflict over control and power.
Income inequality is one of the most economically and politically destabilizing trends in the world today. It is, however, difficult to appreciate fully what income inequality actually means–very few of us have any meaningful contact with the ultra-rich. One way to appreciate the divide between the typical person and the very rich is to think about what buying a house means to an average person: it is by far the most expensive purchase most people will make in the entire lives. Yet, for the very, very rich, buying a house may be a trivial act. Check out the people who could buy every single house in certain cities in the US:
James Baldwin was one of the great American novelists, and he wrote a short essay on politics between Israel and the Palestinians that originally appeared in the September 29, 1979, issue of The Nation. Baldwin ties together the struggle of African-Americans in the United States with the legacies of colonialism and slavery. In the essay he makes a clear and sharp link between civil rights and anti-semitism, but also distinguishes support for Jews from support for Israel. It is an elegant and insightful essay, well worth reading today.
John Oliver is a brilliant comedian, and many of you have likely already seen this video clip of his take on income inequality in the US. But if not, it is a must-see.
The Israeli newspaper, Ha’aretz, obtained a copy of the proposal made by US Secretary of State for a truce proposal that was unanimously rejected by the Israeli Cabinet. Apparently, the proposal was made with the active participation of Qatar and Turkey and only limited participation by Egypt and the Palestinian Authority. The proposal marks a very sharp move from previous US positions, but contains some very promising changes:
“According to the text, “the Palestinian factions” and the State of Israel would make three commitments:
a) Establish a humanitarian cease-fire, ending all hostilities in and from the Gaza Strip, beginning in 48 hours, and lasting for a period of seven days
b) Build on the Cairo cease-fire understandings of November 2012 [that were reached, through American and Egyptian mediation, following Operation Pillar of Defense]
c) Convene in Cairo, at the invitation of Egypt, within 48 hours to negotiate resolution of all issues necessary to achieve a sustainable cease-fire and enduring solution to the crisis in Gaza, including arrangements to secure the opening of crossings, allow the entry of goods and people and ensure the social and economic livelihood of the Palestinian people living in Gaza, transfer funds to Gaza for the payment of salaries for public employees, and address all security issues.”
It is easy to understand why Israel rejected the proposal, but it injects a more real assessment of the issues that need to be resolved for a peace to endure.
The Associated Press has published a very detailed accounting of the shoot-down of the Malaysian airliner. The evidence and interviews in the report seem to prove that the Russian separatists did indeed shoot down the plane, although they believed that it was a Ukrainian military transport. One of the fascinating aspects of the report was that the anti-aircraft missile was fired by “a rebel unit, about half of which was made up of men from far eastern Russia, many from the island of Sakhalin off Russia’s Pacific coast.” Sakhalin is 4,200 miles away from the Ukrainian border, which suggests some complicity on the part of the Russian government.
The outrage over the downing of the Malaysian airliner has grown more intense in Europe as the task of recovering the bodies from the crash has been dilatory and insensitive. But Europe depends heavily on oil and natural gas exports from Russia. So the question of whether to base a foreign policy on values or interests has been raised in stark relief. The overwhelming dependence of Europe on Russian exports can be seen from the map below.
As the Islamic State has consolidated its control over territories in Syria and Iraq, the nature of its rule is becoming more overt. The al-Khansaa Brigade is an all-women group that enforces a strict code of behavior over the women in the Islamic State. The contrast between a liberal conception of human rights and the conception espoused by the Islamic State is quite dramatic.
Following the details of the current Israeli-Palestinian conflict is very difficult–much is asserted and little evidence is verifiable. There is, however, a much broader context in which the conflict is occurring. The entire region is in turmoil: Libya is disintegrating, Syria has experienced some of the worst fighting of the civil war in recent days, and, hovering over all of these immediate crises, the Arab Spring remains tumultuous but unfulfilled. The countries that have traditionally acted as “brakes” on local conflicts in the Middle East (mostly for ill, but sometimes for good) are withdrawn and unreliable. We are witnessing the unraveling of the regional system that has governed the Middle East for over a century. It is virtually impossible to imagine what the outside world could possibly do to mitigate the turmoil–the impotence of power is palpable.
We tend to think that diplomacy is the stuff of striped pants and euphemistic words (Winston Churchill said it best: “Diplomacy is the art of telling people to go to hell in such a way that they ask for directions”) Sometimes, however, diplomacy degenerates into a childish exchange. Brazil criticized Israel for its “disproportionate” use of force in the Gaza Strip. Israel’s response was to refer to Brazil’s loss in the World Cup tournament: “This is not football. In football, when a game ends in a draw, you think it is proportional, but when it finishes 7-1 it’s disproportionate. Sorry to say, but not so in real life and under international law.” The Brazilians have yet to respond, but, admittedly, it’s hard to respond to such an irrelevant riposte.
Attempts to broker a cease-fire have thus far been unsuccessful as Israel rejected the proposal by US Secretary of State Kerry for a week-long truce, “as it stands”. Israel rejected the proposal because it believed that the truce would only give Hamas a breathing space in which it would re-arm. Hamas has rejected previous proposals because they did not include a lifting of the blockade of the Gaza Strip. Meanwhile the Palestinian Authority gave approval to a protest march in the West Bank–the first such permit in almost ten years–and the protest exploded in a “day of rage” that led to three Palestinian deaths near Jerusalem.
Russia is apparently upping the ante in Ukraine. NATO asserts that Russia has massed 15,000 troops along the Ukrainian border and is sending heavy military equipment to the separatists in the eastern part of the country. Most analysts had expected the tension in the region to ease at least temporarily as a result of the downing of the Malaysian airliner. Instead, Russia seems to be escalating tensions It is difficult to anticipate what the next moves might be.
A patient who was diagnosed with the Ebola virus was forcibly removed from the hospital by relatives. The patient is now moving around Sierra Leone’s capital of 1 million people. According to Reuters, there are dozens of people who have tested positive for the disease who are moving within the general population of the city of Freetown. The security breach is a nightmare for medical personnel as the mortality rate for untreated Ebola is about 90 percent. It is hard to believe that Sierra Leone’s medical infrastructure is capable of dealing with a general outbreak of the disease.
The protection of civilians is one of the most important tenets of international humanitarian law. In recent years, we have heard various rationalizations justifying the killing of civilians, whether accidental or intentional. These rationalizations need to be repudiated forcefully by the international community. The protection of civilians is what separates war from massacre. Massacres serve no political purpose.
The financial media is buzzing about a relatively new phenomenon in tax policy: inversion. The practice is relatively simple. US corporations find a smaller company in a non-US country with a more favorable corporate tax policy (Ireland is one such country, due to the policy of austerity imposed on it after the Great Recession of 2008-09). It “relocates” its head office to that country (not really–it is simply a sham head office) and therefore avoids paying the US corporate tax rate. It is a great way to lower the taxes paid, but, from a political point of view, it raises a critical question: do corporations have a national identity? If not, then should such corporations benefit from the infrastructural (transportation, education, communications) benefits of national policies? Or should they somehow be forced to pay for using the infrastructure paid for by the taxpayers?
With the world’s attention focused on the Gaza Strip and Ukraine, we have lost sight of the ongoing violence in Syria. In the last two days, over 700 Syrians have been killed as government forces loyal to President Assad have been fighting the rebels of the Islamic State for control of an important gas field near the city of Homs. The takeover of Syrian oil and gas fields has been an important source of revenue for the Islamic State, allowing it to buy weapons and the cooperation of corrupt officials. Thus, the fighting has been fierce.
Astronauts aboard the International Space Station have photographed the exchange of fire at night in the Gaza Strip. The flashes of light captured rocket trails and explosions. I cannot imagine what the aliens are thinking about the human race right now.
The United NationsHuman Rights Council (UNHRC) has voted to investigate possible war crimes in the recent fighting in the Gaza Strip. The resolution called for an independent commission of inquiry to investigate “all violations of international human rights law and international humanitarian law in the occupied Palestinian territory, including East Jerusalem, particularly in the occupied Gaza Strip”. The vote was 29 states in favor, one against, and 17 abstentions. The US was the only state to vote against forming the independent commission. There have been earlier such commissions, notably the Goldstone commission after Israel’s Operation Cast Lead in the Gaza in 2008-09 in which 1,400 Palestinians died. Israel rejected the findings of the commission and refused to cooperate with the investigation.
The Ukrainian Parliament was debating the appropriate response to the downing of the Malaysian airliner within its airspace and sentiments in the Parliament ran amok. The far right Svoboda Party disagreed quite strongly with the sentiments expressed by the lawmakers from the eastern part of the state where Russian separatists are quite strong. The video is below:
The government of Israel has renewed its policy of punitive home demolitions in the West Bank. The government destroys the homes of people it deems are threats to Israel as a way of punishing individuals and to deter others from harming the state of Israel. The policy had been dropped years ago after the Israeli military determined that the policy was not effective. In the wake of the recent violence, the government of Israel has decided to reinstate the policy in order to separate Hamas supporters from the Fatah faction within the Palestinian community. It remains to be seen whether this iteration of the punishments will be at all effective. The ongoing conflict has begun to rattle the Arab population within Israel (about 20% of the total population of Israel).
It’s been such a wretched week. We all need a little comic relief. Here’s a video from China that makes serious fun of North Korean leader, Kim Jong Un. But it also ridicules other world leaders, such as Obama, Shinzo Abe, and Vladimir Putin. Have a good laugh.
To help explain the conflict in Gaza, I have chosen two articles that articulate the positions of both sides. The first, by Greg Shupak, gives the Palestinian point of view, particularly on the perception of Hamas toward the proposals for cease-fires that have been advanced. The second is by Michael Herzog from Foreign Policy which is titled “A War We Didn’t Want. Some of the points are responsive, but many of them pass like ships in the night. Some things are not noticed or never seen even though they are in plain view.
Not surprisingly, the Russian public is receiving a completely different understanding of the crash of the Malaysian airliner in Ukraine. Before one dismisses these explanations as fanciful (although, admittedly, some of them are), try a thought experiment. Is there any way for the people in the West to know whether or not the US and European explanations are equally spurious? After all, virtually all of the information about how the airliner was brought down is coming from Western intelligence sources.
The US National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) announced that the global temperature for June was the highest ever recorded for that month. It follows a record-setting month of May as well. The global June temperature was 16.2C (61.2F), which is 0.7C higher than the 20th-century average. It beat 2010’s record by one-twentieth of a degree. Not all regions of the world recorded such high temperatures, so people in some areas of the world did not experience the record.
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