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The United Kalavrvta is an oil tanker that was carrying about $100 million worth of oil from the Kurdish region of Iraq. The Kurds have been trying to sell the oil from their territory, but the central government of Iraq claims that the oil belongs to Iraq and does not recognize an independent state of Kurdistan. Currently the Kurds receive about 17% of the value of the oil pumped from its territory. Apparently, the Kurds decided to keep all the revenues because the Kalavrvta has disappeared from the electronic tracking system used by the US Coast Guard. It is likely that the tanker will eventually reappear but without any oil. We’ll see how the Iraqi government decides to pursue the matter. If the Kurds can sell their own oil, it will be a huge step forward in their bid for their own state.
The Thomson Reuters Foundation conducted an interview with various regional experts on the question: “Is the Islamic State a Flash in the Pan?” The answers, some of which are inconsistent with each other, are quite thoughtful and revealing. Generally, however, the answers tend to emphasize the problems the Islamic State is going to have governing such a large swath of territory in both Syria and Iraq. The interview offers a good perspective on the power of IS which everyone should keep in mind as world leaders tend to focus on emphasizing the threat from the new organization.
Poland denied the right of the Russian Defense Minister’s airplane to fly through its airspace when Russia declared the flight as a military flight. When Russia changed the characterization of the flight to a “civilian” flight, Poland allowed the flight to proceed. Poland has been sharply critical of Russian actions in Ukraine, and the denial was an attempt to communicate to the Russians Poland’s displeasure. Needless to say, the Russians were angered by the move.
There is an incredible amount of confusion about whether Russia has in fact “invaded” Ukraine. We usually don’t have this type of problem in world politics–the infiltration of guerrilla forces are always difficult to identify, but regular troops are usually easily identifiable. The Washington Post has an article listing the evidence that we currently have about Russian troops in Ukraine. Unfortunately. none of the evidence is “definitive.” The Russians adamantly deny that there are Russian troops in Ukraine. I doubt, however, that this uncertainty will last much longer. In response to the map tweeted by the Canadians on “Russia/Not Russia”, the Russians published today a map which clearly identifies Crimea as part of Russia. For the Russians, but not for the rest of the world, the matter is closed.
The province of Kashmir has been disputed by India and Pakistan since both states achieved independence in 1947. Since that time, there have been occasional violent conflicts over the province, but since 2003 an uneasy truce has prevailed. In recent weeks, however, it appears as if the conflict is heating up once again. Both Pakistan and India have control over parts of the province, but they are divided by a “Line of Control” which serves as a de facto border. Given the recent election of the Hindu nationalist, Modi, to the office of Prime Minister of India, and the recent political volatility in Pakistan, it is difficult to anticipate whether this crisis might blow up into something significant.
Islamic State militants have seized United Nations’ Peacekeepers in the Golan Heights, adding a high degree of unpredictability to an already dangerous situation. Not only is the act an egregious violation of international law, it also directly involves Israel in the Occupied Territory that belonged to Syria prior to 1967. There is no question that Israel would feel highly threatened by the presence of the IS so close to its borders.
The human cost of the Ebola virus outbreak in West Africa has been horrific. There is also a huge economic cost that will be borne by the people of the region. The African Development Bank estimates that the GDP of the region may fall by as much as 4% due to the dislocations and costs of the outbreak. Foreign investors are pulling their people out of the area and workers are refusing to go to work out of fear that the virus is spreading. And the international response to the crisis has been pathetic. There is no way these countries can afford to spend the money necessary to respond adequately to the crisis. The only group that has mounted an effective response is the non-governmental agency, Medecins Sans Frontiers.
Russian President Putin and Ukrainian President Poroshenko met and discussed the possibility of a cease-fire in the eastern regions of Ukraine. If a cease-fire were to be announced, that outcome would be a victory for President Putin since the cease-fire would allow the Russian separatists to regroup and resupply. As it turns out, the meeting was nothing more than a ploy. While it was going on, Russian regular soldiers were crossing the border and fighting the Ukrainian Army. In short, the Russians have invaded Ukraine. Russia explained that those Russian soldiers that were captured by Ukrainian forces had simply gotten lost. In response, the Canadian delegation to NATO tweeted the map below to Russia. At least the Canadians have a sense of humor.
Argentina is desperately trying to avoid paying the hedge funds who are demanding full payment for bonds for which other bondholders have accepted partial payment. According to a New York Court, Argentina has been ordered not to pay anyone unless an agreement is first reached with the hedge funds. Argentina simply does not have the money to repay the full value of the bonds, so it is attempting to change the legal status of the bonds so that they will be governed by Argentinian law and not US law–in effect, trying to avoid the New York court order. The maneuvers have created a confidence crisis of foreign investors in Argentina, and the crisis has led to a rapid plunge in the value of the Argentine Peso. Economic turmoil is spreading throughout the country as a consequence and the country is facing a nation-wide strike.
Israel and the Palestinian Authority–including Hamas and the Islamic Jihad–have agreed to an indefinite cease-fire. The agreement ends 7 weeks of fighting and several broken truces. Israel and Egypt have agreed to open up several border crossings and to allow greater humanitarian supplies to enter Gaza. Other issues are to be picked up later on, allowing this cease fire to settle in before more contentious matters are negotiated. Several hard-line members of Prime Minister Netanyahu’s cabinet voiced serious opposition to the cease-fire, but it appears as if this one will be more effective than the previous attempts.
The leader of Boko Haram, Abubakar Shekau, has announced the creation of an Islamic Caliphate in the Nigerian northeastern city of Gwoza. Boko Haram has been operating for years in Nigeria, and is responsible for many acts of violence in support of its desire to create an Islamic state in Nigeria’s north. In July Shekau had voiced support for the Islamic State in Syria and Iraq, but there has been no reciprocal acknowledgement from the Middle Eastern Caliphate. The Nigerian military strongly disputes that Boko Haram is in control of the city, but the military has not been able to exercise authority in the region for quite some time.
A leaked report from the United Nations Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) contains the following conclusion:
“Without additional mitigation, and even with adaptation, warming by the end of the 21st century will lead to high to very high risk of severe, widespread, and irreversible impacts globally.”
The situation is indeed dire because the IPCC thinks that this conclusion is foregone, and that even major changes in greenhouse gas emissions right now will not avert a catastrophe by the end of this century. We will have to wait for the complete report to assess the validity of the conclusion.
The New York Times is reporting that Egypt and the United Arab Emirates secretly bombed jihadist sites in Libya. There is no secret that both countries fear the radical elements in the movement, but the attacks occurred without any warning to the prime ally of both countries–the US. The fact that these countries felt free to implement a rather dangerous foreign policy without US backing is testimony to the growing preception in the world that the US matters less in world affairs. We typically take examples from actions taken by countries opposed to the US to make this point (the implicit argument is a variation of the “Munich” analogy). But US allies have increasingly taken actions without consulting the US, or actions that tend to undermine American interests (Saudi Arabia and Israel are prime examples).
The American Israel Public Affairs Committee (AIPAC) is one of the most powerful lobbying group in American politics, but relatively little is known about how the Committee works. Connie Bruck has written an essay on AIPAC for the New Yorker magazine, and outlines many of its positions and lobbying techniques. The intersection between domestic and foreign policy is dramatically illustrated by the activities of AIPAC.
The French Economic Minister, Arnaud Montebourg, has resigned from the French government, citing his disapproval of President Hollande’s support for austerity policies. Prime Minister Manuel Valls is trying to construct a new cabinet to support the government, but Montebourg’s resignation reflects strong domestic opposition to French economic policy. French economic growth was a tepid 0.1% in the second quarter of 2014. The French have abandoned the deficit reduction goals set by the European Union, a move that will likely lead Spain and Italy to drop similar goals.
On Friday, Lithuania requested a meeting of the UN Security Council to discuss the Russian humanitarian aid convoy into Ukraine. Lithuania, a member of the Council, was obviously concerned about what it regarded as Russian intrusion into the internal affairs of Ukraine, and was supported by the Western powers on the Council. The Russians countered by charging that Western powers were unconcerned about the humanitarian crisis in Ukraine (about 2,000 people have died as Kyiv has tried to regain the territory held by the separatists), adding that the West had created the crisis in the first place. The charges and counter-charges are indicative of the controversial nature of humanitarian missions. We should remember, however, that the Russians have vetoed 4 resolutions to send aid to Syria, even though 191,000 people have died in that civil war. Consistency is not a high priority for the great powers.
In addition to the Ebola virus outbreak in West Africa which so far has affected 2,615 people (claiming 1,427 lives), the Democratic Republic of Congo has now identified two cases of the Ebola virus. Congo has had 7 outbreaks of Ebola since it was first identified in 1976 near the Ebola river. The outbreak has led to quarantine and travel bans, inflicting great economic damage to Sierra Leone, Guinea, and Liberia. The outbreak is clearly not yet under control and not nearly enough aid is being sent to the region whose countries lack the resources and infrastructure to deal with it.
China has announced that it intends to develop its own computer operating system to compete with Western systems such as Windows and Apple and Google’s operating systems. The move is clearly designed to help China avoid dependence on Western systems which it suspects are Trojan horses for Western spies. Additionally, a homegrown operating system would be far cheaper and perhaps more intuitive for the huge Chinese market. We shall have to see how successful the project is: on the one hand, China will be able to avoid many of the mistakes made by Western manufacturers. On the other hand, operating systems are devilishly complex.
Pressure is growing on the US to expand its activities against the Islamic State into Syria. The IS has well-established bases in northern and eastern Syria, and as long as its bases there are untroubled, there is little chance that progress can be made in defusing the threat it poses to Iraq. President Obama’s problem is that US foreign policy in the region is contradictory: it supports the Iraqi government but opposes the Syrian government, both of which oppose the IS. Obama should be following the balance of power maxim, “The enemy of my enemy is my friend.” But it would be hard for Obama to ally the US with a Syrian government that has killed about 191,000 Syrians in the civil war.
Apparently, the truck convoy left Ukraine and returned to Russia. There was no confrontation with Ukrainian forces, and the response from the West remains unclear. RT, a media outlet that closely reflects Russian policy, gives the Russian side of the debate, raising some important issues about humanitarian intervention. Given that we have no accurate or independent information about the contents of the humanitarian convoy, it is hard to assess whether the Russian side is persuasive.
Fighting has resumed in the Gaza Strip, as the peace negotiations yielded nothing but additional animosity between Israel and the Palestinians. Indeed, tensions have actually heightened as the Palestinian Authority announced that Hamas had agreed to terms to pursue membership in the International Criminal Court. Israel does not believe that it can get a fair hearing at the ICC, and the political damage to US-Israeli relations from a negative ruling would be immense.
Economic conditions in Europe continue to be highly troubling. Virtually every country, including Germany, has seen slowing growth, even as the overall European economy has yet to recover from the Great Recession of 2008-09. Indeed, looking at the single index of economic growth, Europe’s growth rate is significantly worse than its recovery from the Great Depression of the 1930s. Many economists are beginning to worry that it will take at least a decade for Europe to recover fully from the current economic slowdown.
The Washington Post has an interesting article on how the rest of the world views the protests in Ferguson, Missouri. Appropriately, most outside observers emphasize the issue of race and its unresolved status in American society. Not surprisingly, few of the articles use the US protests as a mirror of their own societies which are also plagued by racism (the Russian criticism is particularly hypocritical). To my surprise, however, few of the articles focus on the economic issues underlying the problems in Ferguson, nor do they link the protests in Ferguson to other protests that are going on the world today. There are many threads that unite the Ferguson protests to the Arab Spring and the protests in Europe against austerity. But there is one big, incontrovertible difference between the US and the rest of the world:
About 130 Russian trucks carrying humanitarian assistance have entered Ukrainian territory. The trucks entered without Red Cross approval and the Obama Administration threatened Russia with additional sanctions. The move places the Ukrainian government with a difficult choice: it can do nothing and allow the Russians to fortify the separatists, or it can use force to evict the Russian trucks giving Russia a pretext for war. This chess match is moving toward some sort of end game.
A recent report based on US Census data indicates how seriously the average American family has been hurt by the slow recovery from the Great Recession of 2008-09. The report found that median incomes in the US have declined by 3.1%: “median household income was $53,891, down from $55,589 in inflation-adjusted dollars when the economic expansion began in June 2009.” The report also found that the sharpest drop-off in incomes has occurred in families with three or more children. So even though the stock market has experienced one of the sharpest rises in its history over the same period, it does not appear as if that wealth has trickled-down.
US Army general Martin Dempsey, chairman of the joint chiefs of staff, gave a press briefing which described the threat posed by the Islamic State in apocalyptic terms. The US has launched more than 90 airstrikes against the Islamic State in Iraq in the past week, and Dempsey said that it could be “contained” for a while but not in perpetuity. The language matches the words used by President Obama and Secretary of State Kerry, and it seems clear that the US now regards the IS as an imminent strategic threat. We have heard such language before about al-Qaida after 11 September 2001. We should probably prepare ourselves for an increase in US anti-terrorist activity, both domestic and international.
Navi Pillay, the UN human rights chief, strongly criticized the UN Security Council for its failures in stopping conflicts in the world. At the end of her term, she identified the Council’s willingness to allow national interests to trump human rights concerns as the main cause of many of the conflicts that have taken so many lives in recent years. Most recently, Pillay was sharply critical of what she called war crimes committed by Israel in the Gaza Strip.
George Will, the noted and controversial conservative columnist, has published an op-ed piece in the Washington Post that confirms that Richard Nixon, as a Presidential candidate in 1968, committed treason. Documents from the Johnson Administration indicate that Nixon persuaded South Vietnam to not pursue the peace negotiations started by President Johnson in order to prevent the Democrats from winning the 1968 presidential election. If the peace negotiations had succeeded, the Vietnam War could have ended in 1968, and hundreds of thousand Vietnamese and tens of thousands Americans would not have been killed. Will quotes a wiretapped message from the South Vietnamese Embassy in Washington. Anna Chennault was Nixon’s representative to the South Vietnamese government:
On Nov. 2 at 8:34 p.m., a teleprinter at Johnson’s ranch delivered an FBI report on the embassy wiretap: Chennault had told South Vietnam’s ambassador “she had received a message from her boss (not further identified). . . . She said the message was that the ambassador is to ‘hold on, we are gonna win.’ ”
Nixon’s treachery is breathtaking. He was willing to sabotage peace in order to win the election.
Paul Krugman has written an op-piece for the New York Times which points out the high cost of modern war, and raises the question of why states would commence such an economically losing proposition. Krugman suffers from the typical analytic problem of a macroeconomist. It is true that an economy on the whole loses in modern war. But, on a microeconomic level certain entities–corporations and individuals–profit immensely from war. The real question is how these small entities have the ability to persuade a society to lose money on their behalf.
Chinese troops have entered about 25 kms into Indian territory in the Burtse area in Ladakh. Chinese troops did the same incursion in April 2013 which led to a tense stand-off between China and India. The actual dividing line between China and India is disputed, and the previous confrontation was resolved peacefully. But India has a new Prime Minister now, and Modi has made Hindu nationalism a key feature of his administration. We’ll have to see if Modi handles the matter differently than Singh.
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