Both the European Banking Authority and the European Central Bank have conducted what are known as “stress” tests on over a hundred banks in Europe. A stress test involves creating a theoretical scenario of a financial crisis and checking whether the banks have sufficient capital to pay their creditors and depositors on schedule even in the throes of a financial panic. The scenarios are speculative, but the authorities attempt to make them plausible. Unfortunately, many of the European banks failed these stress tests and are therefore now required to raise additional capital. The problem is that raising capital means that money is diverted from profitable investment and just stored in case of an emergency. Which means that private capital is not available to stimulate economic growth. And the banks seem to be getting weaker over time.
Brazilian President Dilma Rousseff has been narrowly re-elected in a hotly contested election. The election cycle has been up and down for President Rousseff, but Brazilian voters seem to have rejected the pro-business policies of her opponent Aecio Neves.
Two pro-western parties have received very strong showings in the Ukrainian Parliamentary elections held today. The two parties, however, failed to achieve a clear majority in the Parliament, so Ukraine will be governed by a coalition of parties next year. Unfortunately, the elections were seriously flawed because millions of voters in the eastern parts of the country, currently under the control of Russian speaking separatists, were not able to vote. The inability to collect those votes will seriously compromise the legitimacy of the new government.
Paul Krugman is a noted Keynesian economist–he favors government intervention in the market in order to stimulate demand. Classical liberals oppose such policies because they believe that markets, if left alone, will produce more efficient and productive outcomes, and that government intervention produces political and not economic outcomes. Krugman has written an op-ed piece in which he compares the protests in Hong Kong to politics in the United States. His conclusions are that without government interventions, one can only expect greater income inequality in both economies.
Iran has set a deadline of 24 November for closing a deal with the P5+1 (the 5 Permanent members of the UN Security Council–the US, Great Britain, France, Russia, and China–plus Germany). Typically, negotiations get much tenser as deadlines approach, but it seems clear that both sides want to come to an agreement. There are reasons to believe that the negotiations will ultimately be successful, contrary to popular opinion when the negotiations started. What is not clear is how the both the US Congress and Israel will react to the deal. President Obama will likely try to craft an agreement that does not need Congressional approval.
Italian Prime Minster Matteo Renzi has introduced new labor law reforms that are strongly opposed by Italian labor unions. The unions organized protests across Italy and the one in Rome brought together almost a million people. The unions are opposed to continued austerity measures designed to bring down the Italian budget deficit. The protests mirror other protests against austerity across Europe. It remains to be seen whether Germany will ease up on its demands that European Union nations adhere to the rule that budget deficits cannot be more than 3%.
Russian President Vladimir Putin gave a speech which denied that Russia was trying to build a new empire and accusing the United States of violating the world order. He specifically mentioned the role of the US in funding rebels in Syria and argued that the US was responsible for the growth of the Islamic State. The speech will certainly resonate with those in the world who believe that the US is using its power to destabilize regimes it does not favor.
The Swedes have called off the search for what was believed to be a foreign submarine in its territorial waters. The search was focused on the archipelago near Stockholm which is an incredibly difficult area to reconnoiter. Analysts continue to believe that the submarine was Russian, but there is absolutely no credible evidence to back up that suspicion. The Swedes, however, as well as others in northeastern Europe, believe that the Russians are applying military pressure to the northern tier of NATO.
The European Council has agreed to try to cut greenhouse gas emissions from the EU by 40% from 1990 levels by 2030. The countries in Europe which rely upon coal for their energy supplies had resisted the proposal, but pressure was on the EU to come up with an agreement prior to the 2015 Climate Conference which is to be held in Paris. The hope is that the European action will place pressure on other countries to come to a globally binding agreement in 2015.
Economic data suggest that the Great Recession of 2008-09 had a long-term effect on the distribution of wealth in the US. The top 1% of the US population have recovered almost completely from the negative effects of the recession, but the bottom 99% have yet to recover from the downturn. It appears as if the losses from the recession will end up being permanent for the bottom 99%, and there is no reason to expect that a recovery will erase those gains. The permanence of those losses suggest that market forces alone will be able to compensate for the bottom 99%–some sort out outside intervention is necessary for recovery.
The Britain-based Syrian Observatory for Human Rights released a report on the result of a month-long period of bombing in Syria by the US and its allies in the fight against the Islamic State. The report claims that 521 Islamist fighters and 32 civilians have been killed in the strikes. That works out to about a 6% death rate for non-combatants. There is no quantitative measure of what constitutes a war crime in terms of civilian casualties in an active combat zone. Any deliberate civilian death is automatically a war crime, but, assuming that these civilians were accidentally killed in the course of a legitimate military air strike, some civilian deaths are not automatically criminal. But at some point the number of even unintended civilians killed becomes a serious matter.
The patterns of global economic growth are not particularly robust right now, but, as always, there are some exceptions to the general trend. Today, some of the fastest growing markets are ones that often go ignored. But at this time, economic growth is quite strong in the Philippines, Indonesia, Nigeria, and Ethiopia. These countries have been able to avoid the global slowdown by essentially focusing on domestic demand and the building up of domestic infrastructure. I thank Wintana Balema for bringing this article to my attention.
The chief exectuive of Hong Kong, Leung Chun-ying, is currently negotiating with the protesters about possible compromises on the question of how candidates from Hong Kong can be nominated for elections. He had an opportunity to be interviewed by the international press, and he is quoted by the Financial Times (the FT has a paywall so if you wish to see the full article, you should use a College computer) as saying:
“If it’s entirely a numbers game – numeric representation – then obviously you’d be talking to half the people in Hong Kong [that] earn less than US$1,800 a month,” he said in reference to the median per capita wage. “You would end up with that kind of politics and policies.”
The statement suggests that Mr. Leung fears the power of the poorer sectors of the Hong Kong population. The South China Morning Post articulates the fear in this way:
Semi-autonomous Hong Kong has one of the biggest income divides in the world, with growing discontent at increased inequality and exorbitant property prices fuelling the protests which turned increasingly violent at the end of last week.
The statement is likely to harden the position of many, but not all, of the protesters.
Swedish and NATO fighter planes were scrambled to intercept a Russian airplane that entered the national airspace of NATO-member Estonia. The provocative behavior comes as the Swedes continue to hunt for the mysterious submarine that is in Swedish territorial waters. The pattern of incursions over recent years is cataloged by Newsweek:
“In 2010, only one Russian military vessel was spotted close to Latvian waters. This year, the figure has already exceeded 40, Latvia’s ministry of defence says. During the same period, the number of Russian military approaches to Latvian airspace resulting in scrambles by Nato’s Baltic air policing mission has skyrocketed from around five to more than 180. Neighbouring Lithuania has already seen 132 scrambles this year, up from four in 2010. Estonia, meanwhile, is seeing not just unwelcome approaches to its airspace and waters but also the abduction of one of its intelligence officers to Russia.
“Then there is the smaller number of violations of neighbours’ airspace and waters. In 2010, there were no Russian violations of Finnish airspace. This year, the Finnish ministry of defence figures show, there have already been five.”
It is difficult not to conclude that the Russians are deliberately trying to probe the defensive capabilities and will of NATO.
The US and Canada put their military forces on high alert after a gunman shot and killed a Canadian soldier at the Canadian War Memorial. There is little solid information about the event, but it follows a serious event near Montreal yesterday when a person ran over two Canadian soldiers, killing one of them. Authorities in Canada identified the driver of the car as Martin Couture-Rouleau, a person who was considered by Canadian authorities as a sympathizer of the Islamic State. Needless to say, speculation is running rife, but we have no hard evidence of any coordination between the two attacks.
Human Rights Watch, a highly regarded non-governmental organization, has accused the Ukrainian government of using cluster bombs against Russian-speaking separatists in eastern Ukraine. Cluster bombs are regarded by many as weapons that violate the laws of war since they release thousands of tiny bomblets that cannot discriminate between combatants and non-combatants. There is a 2010 Convention governing the use of cluster bombs but many countries–including Ukraine, China, Russia, the United States, Israel, Syria, India, Pakistan and Brazil–have not signed the convention banning the use of cluster bombs. Kiev denies using cluster bombs.
The Pew Research Center has released its poll of the most distrusted news sources in the US. I reproduce the chart below simply for information purposes (no quiz questions on this subject). Interesting tidbit: more people mistrust The New York Times than Al Jazeera.
Source: American Trends Panel (wave 1). Survey conducted March 19-April 29, 2014. Based on all Web respondents (representative of the 89% of Americans with internet access). (Overall N=2,901; see About the Study for sample sizes of each ideological group.) Respondents were asked which (of 36 sources for news about government and politics) they have heard of, trust, distrust and got news from in the past week. Ideological consistency based on a scale of 10 political values questions. To see audience profiles, click each source. *Note that ThinkProgress, Daily Kos, Mother Jones and The Ed Schultz Show do not have audience profiles because the sample sizes for these audiences are too small to analyze.
For those of you who have a strong biology background, you might be interested in this article, which summarizes the findings of a disease modelling firm which did a model of the potential spread of the Ebola virus. I do not fully understand the article (so don’t panic–I would never ask a question on the quiz about something this technical). But I often rely on the expertise of others who can explain specialized material to me. I have a simple question: should I freak out now?
Turkey has changed its policy toward aiding the Kurdish people against the Islamic State. It has announced that it is willing to allow the Iraqi Kurds to use Turkish territory to fight the IS. The decision is a curious one: it will allow the Iraqi Kurds, but not the Syrian or Turkish Kurds to be resupplied by the US. The Iraqi Kurds are regarded as politically different from the Kurds that have been fighting for greater autonomy in Turkish politics. The characterization is probably an accurate one at this point in time, but one cannot help but believe that the war against the IS will undoubtedly remind all Kurds of their common interests. One suspects that intense US pressure on Turkey–not the fine distinctions between the different Kurdish groups–is the principal reason for the change in policy.
If you wish to see a Kurdish parody of the IS that appeared on television, go to this link which is maintained by the Middle East Media Research Institute:
Deforestation is a serious global environmental problem. The number of forests that have been eliminated due to industrialization has been staggering, and there are only three tropical rainforests left in the world: in Brazil, in Central Africa, and in Indonesia. Brazil has launched a major effort to stop the process of deforestation, and it has been relatively successful. However, its rate of deforestation is beginning to rise and the country needs to rethink and recalibrate its efforts to preserve its rainforest.
Iran has set a deadline of 24 November to secure a deal with the P5+1 on the issue of its nuclear program. It was reported today that Iran has taken steps to further comply with some of the conditions established to obtain a deal. It has diluted part of its refined uranium stocks to the level of 2% enriched uranium, a level far below that necessary to build an atomic bomb (which requires enrichment of about 95% to start a chain reaction). The move is a sign that Iran is eager to make a deal, but it remains to be seen whether the P5+1 will be satisfied with the progress.
There has been an interesting development in the protests in Hong Kong. Hong Kong leader CY Leung has made the charge that “external forces” are involved in the protests. There were no specific details to the accusation, but it is a similar charge to that made by Russia after the protests in Kiev forced President Yanukovich to flee the country. We have no evidence that Leung’s fears are justified, but the accusation is often made against civil protests in order to delegitimize the protest movement as not being authentic. Meanwhile, violence continues to escalate in Hong Kong.
Sweden is searching its coast for what it suspects is a Russian submarine near the waters off Stockholm. The Swedes have received visual clues (see the photo) and intercepted Russian conversations on what is usually an emergency-only radio frequency. Submarines often patrol coastlines but if this photo (and it was one of three shot by three different observers) is actually of a Russian submarine, it clearly is in Swedish territorial waters. Both Sweden and Finland have recently reported harassing behavior in the air and on the sea by the Russians, and neither country is willing to ignore behavior that may signal aggressive intent. Right now, the suspicion is that the submarine may be experiencing mechanical trouble which would be an embarrassment to the Russian Navy.
I do not usually post purely opinion pieces, but Anne Applebaum of the Washington Post has written a short essay on an important question: whether the behavior of the US and NATO has provoked Russian President Putin to take such aggressive actions in east and central Europe. She ignores important Western actions in the Balkans in the 1990s, but she does list a large number of conciliatory actions taken by the West to encourage Russian support for preserving the Post-Cold War world order.
The Economist has published a very intelligent, substantive, and sobering analysis of the likely evolution of the Ebola outbreak in West Africa. When reading the article, one needs to maintain a clear framework: the current outbreak may become truly catastrophic, but only if the world fails to take the necessary steps to help out countries which lack the medical, economic, and political infrastructure to deal with the crisis. The world needs to understand that if everyone is to be protected from this virus, we need to treat the outbreak in West Africa with the same urgency and dedication as if the outbreak were in our own backyards. In this circumstance, everyone is a next-door neighbor.
Tensions are rising in Jerusalem as disputes have arisen over Muslim access to the al Aqsa Mosque. Israelis hold the Temple Mount (the area outlined in blue in the photograph below) as sacred; Muslims regard the mosque built on the Temple Mount as sacred. The only part of King Solomon’s Temple that remains is known as the Western Wall. Palestinian President Abbas gave a speech in which he called upon Fatah to protect the right of Muslims to enter the mosque, after Israel restricted Muslim access so that Israelis could visit the mosque. Any controversy over these sites are potentially very dangerous.
The three week battle between the Hong Kong authorities and student protesters has regained momentum as the protesters regained parts of the city from which the police had evicted them earlier. The back-and-forth struggle has been taking place against the backdrop of negotiations that can only be described as fitful. Both sides seem to be hardening their positions even as it is clear that both sides wish to avoid an outbreak of bloodshed. It is very difficult to see how this dispute will be resolved.
The US has experienced a steady worsening of income distribution over the last 40 years, but it is hardly alone. Income inequality seems to be a byproduct of both globalization and technological change, and virtually every country in the world has also seen inequality increase. China is a very interesting case: it has been without question the most remarkable case of poverty reduction in the history of the modern global economy. Over 660 million people have been lifted out of poverty in China over the last thirty years. Yet, at the same time, China’s incomes have gone from one of the world’s most equal distribution to a distribution that is worse than in the US. The Chair of the US Federal Reserve, Janet Yellen, highlighted the significance of income inequality in the US in a speech to the Boston Federal Reserve Bank:
The extent of and continuing increase in inequality in the United States greatly concern me. The past several decades have seen the most sustained rise in inequality since the 19th century after more than 40 years of narrowing inequality following the Great Depression. By some estimates, income and wealth inequality are near their highest levels in the past hundred years, much higher than the average during that time span and probably higher than for much of American history before then. It is no secret that the past few decades of widening inequality can be summed up as significant income and wealth gains for those at the very top and stagnant living standards for the majority. I think it is appropriate to ask whether this trend is compatible with values rooted in our nation’s history, among them the high value Americans have traditionally placed on equality of opportunity
Of course, some would have us believe that income inequality is not an issue:
Tomorrow will mark the anniversary of the Russian sale of Alaska to the United States in 1867. The US bought Alaska for 2 cents an acre from Russia, which was afraid it could not hold on to the territory after the expenses of the Crimean War. The dynamics were roughly equivalent to the US purchase of the Louisiana Territory from France, when Napoleon needed money for his wars in Europe and because the slave revolt in Haiti led by Toussaint L’Overture persuaded him that the French presence in the Western Hemisphere was too precarious. In both of these cases, the US added significant territory because of wars in other areas of the world.
Six months ago, the Islamic group, Boko Haram, kidnapped 200 school girls from the town of Chibok in the northeast of Nigeria. Today, the Nigerian government announced that it had made a deal with the group for the release of the girls. We do not yet know the details of the deal, nor has Boko Haram confirmed the deal. If true, however, the deal would be a tremendous victory for the government of Goodluck Jonathan. It follows the victory that the Nigerian government attained as the World Health Organization prepares to declare it and Senegal as Ebola-free.
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