Author Archive
There is an on-going series of attacks and hostage-taking in Paris. At this time we have only scattered and incomplete information about the death toll or even the scale of the attack. There were at least three and perhaps four simultaneous attacks. Simultaneous attacks suggest a high level of coordination and capability which is particularly worrisome. More than likely, I will be providing additional posts in the future as more information becomes available. The Washington Post has a live blog that is posting new information every few minutes.
Chris Whipple has written a fascinating–and devastating–report in Politico on how much information the Bush Administration had prior to the attacks on the US on 11 September 2001. We knew about the 6 August memorandum before, but much of Whipple’s information was unknown to me. The conclusion seems to be inescapable: the US government was negligent in not taking stronger measures prior to a clearly obvious threat.
Opposition parties in Burundi have asked the UN to send peacekeeping troops as the situation there continues to deteriorate. The parties oppose President Pierre Nkurunziza, who ran for an unconstitutional third term, and they have been mobilizing against him. Burundi experienced a civil war from 1993 to 2005 in which 300,000 people died and the fissures that led to that crisis are still powerful in Burundi. They are the ethnic cleavages between Hutu and Tutsi, the same as that led to the 800,000 who died in Rwanda in 1994.
Kurdish forces have launched an offensive to retake Sinjar, a town taken over by the Islamic State last year. Sinjar has great symbolic significance to the control of the Syrian territory close to the Turkish border. Interestingly, the offensive is manned both by the Peshmerga which is the military arm of the Kurdish Autonomous Region in northern Iraq (supported by the US) and by the Kurdistan Workers Party (the PKK) which is considered a terrorist organization by the Turkish government and therefore not supported by the US. The US has been supporting the offensive with air power which means that the US is supporting an enemy of the Turkish state. The bewildering sets of alliances in this battle continue to nettle a systemic response by the US.
A general strike has paralyzed much public transportation in Greece. The protest is against further austerity measures proposed by the Greek government in order to comply with the bailout demands insisted upon by the troika (the EU, the European Central Bank, and the IMF). The dissent is long simmering as the Greek government has shuffled its composition several times in order to address the debt crisis. This time, however, the protest has erupted into violence as protesters battle the police and are using Molotov cocktails.
The currencies of emerging markets such as China, Brazil, India, and Indonesia are being buffeted by the prospect of a rise in interest rates in the US by the Federal Reserve. Investors, convinced that the US will raise its rates in December, are pulling their money out of emerging markets and depositing the money in the US in hopes of earning a higher return. Unfortunately, the emerging markets can ill-afford the outflow of capital right now and the weakness of their economies is aggravated by the loss of money. The weakness is being manifested by a decline in the currencies of those countries, and the devaluations will lead to an increase of inflation in the markets. If the outflow of capital increases dramatically, then many of these countries will suffer sharp downturns. This issue is something to keep an eye on for the next 6 weeks.
As we move nearer to the UN-sponsored climate change talks in Paris, we still have yet to figure out one of the most difficult issues concerning the curbing of greenhouse gases. Poorer countries such as China and India believe that there should be too schedules for the curbs: one for the already-rich countries who can more readily afford those curbs; and another for poorer countries who should be allowed a longer period of time to curb those emissions so that economic growth can continue in a manner that does not perpetuate the rich/poor divide. India, likely to have 1.5 billion people by mid-century, demonstrates that conundrum perfectly. Alternatives to fossil fuels cannot sustain economic growth as efficiently as fossil fuels do right now. Cutting back on the burning of hydrocarbons will likely slow economic growth, at least in the short run.
The Pew Research Center has done polling on global attitudes toward climate change and has come up with some interesting findings. Pew interviewed people in 40 countries and found that a global median of 54% consider climate change to be a very serious problem. But there were some interesting variations among countries, most notably among those who believe that climate change is harming the world right now.
Relations between the European Union and Israel took a turn for the worse as the EU announced that goods exported from Israeli controlled West Bank, Golan Heights, and East Jerusalem settlements will no longer be simply labeled as “Made in Israel.” Instead, the goods will be identified as being made in the Occupied Territories. Israel believes that the labeling amounts to a boycott; the EU believes that the labeling will simply allow EU consumers to decide whether they wish to purchase goods (primarily fruits and vegetables) from the Occupied Territories.
British Prime Minister David Cameron sent a note to the European Union outlining his conditions for Great Britain to remain a member of the Union. The demands are as follows:
- Protection of the single market for Britain and other non-euro countries
- Boosting competitiveness by setting a target for the reduction of the “burden” of red tape
- Exempting Britain from “ever-closer union” and bolstering national parliaments
- Restricting EU migrants’ access to in-work benefits such as tax credits
The demands are ambiguous and designed to guide the debate in Britain as it moves toward a referendum in 2017. It will be interesting to see how the eurosceptics in Britain mount their attack on the Union before that date.
Reuters is reporting that Russia is working toward an 18-month political framework to resolve the civil war in Syria. Russia is denying the report, but it rings true to the diplomatic offensive that Russia has been waging to retain its influence over Syria and to bolster its presence in the Middle East. The draft document apparently holds out the possibility the Syrian President Assad could remain in power, a position adamantly opposed by the US and Turkey. But it doesn’t seem to require that Assad remain in office, so there is a little wiggle room for all sides.
Odeleite River, Portugal
The above photograph captured the attention of millions of people in China, who quickly noticed that the river was reminiscent of a dragon–an auspicious symbol in China. It has been dubbed the “Blue Dragon River” after the photo was published on Imgur.
The beginning phases of industrialization are always tough on the environment. Both London and Los Angeles were famous for their polluted air, and it is only recently that progress has been made in preventing many particulates from entering the atmosphere. China now has some of the most polluted air on the planet (although New Delhi in India is reportedly quite bad as well). The World Health Organization puts the limit on toxic air particulates at 25 micrograms per cubic meter of air over 24 hours. The recent reading in the Chinese city of Shenyang registered at 1,400 micrograms. The photos are brutal.
9 November is an important day in German history. In 1938 it was the night of Kristallnacht, when thugs roamed the streets of Germany smashing the windows of stores and homes owned by Jews. The word refers to the sound the smashed glass (crystal) made all throughout the night. That night signaled the beginning of the Holocaust although measures against Jews had already become extensive throughout Germany. In 1989 it was the day the Berlin Wall fell. The wall had divided East and West Berlin since 1961 and was a stark symbol of the Cold War between the US and the Soviet Union. The fall of the Berlin Wall ultimately led to the dissolution of the Soviet Union in 1991.
Kristallnacht The Fall of the Berlin Wall
Catalonia’s regional government has decided to declare independence from Spain in 2017. The Catalonians are angry with the Spanish central government since the province is one of the more economically dynamic areas of Spain and the central government takes more tax revenues out of the province than it returns in the form of governmental assistance. The central government, led by Prime Minister Mariano Rajoy, will vigorously resist the move, but it is likely that Spain will have to endure a constitutional crisis.
US officials are “99.9%” certain that a bomb brought down the Russian airplane over the Egyptian Sinai. The belief rests upon US, British, and Israeli intelligence services, but the Egyptians are still reluctant to accept the verdict since such a finding would jeopardize the tourist industry, one of the most reliablle sources of income for the Egyptian government. Russian teams have been sent to sour the departure area of the Sharm el Sheikh airport, suggesting that the Russians are investigating the possibility that the bomb was placed on the plane by an insider.
Myanmar held its first relatively free election in 25 years. The election was not completely free because Aung San Suu Kyi was not allowed to run, but her party, the National League for Democracy, apparently won the largest number of votes (the final results of the election will not be available for 36 hours). Additionally, about a million Rohingya Muslims were excluded from the vote, a legacy of the hostility toward the minority group by the majority Buddhist population in Myanmar. The problems notwithstanding, the election is a giant step forward for Myanmar.
The World Bank has just issued a new report on the urgent need to address climate change and global poverty in tandem. The global poor will have a very difficult time adapting to climate change and they are already subsisting on the brink of disaster. Issues such as crop failures, water shortages, the rising oceans, and temperature increases will all have negative effects on the 702 million people (9.6% of the total population of the planet) who live in extreme poverty. Climate change could force another 100 million people into the condition of extreme poverty.
Military spending in the US is unusually difficult to analyze. Most weapons now are extremely sophisticated and require funding over many years, sometimes decades. And defense contractors are notoriously unreliable in their initial cost estimates. The US has just named Northrup Grumman as the company to build the next generation of strategic bombers. The problem is that no one knows how much it will cost. If the F-35 is any example, we can expect the cost to be at least double the initial estimate of $56 billion for a fleet of 100 bombers.
Artist Rendering of Proposed Long-Range Bomber
US President Obama has decided that the US will not build the Keystone XL pipeline that was proposed to bring Canadian heavy oil to the US. Environmentalists have opposed the pipeline for a variety of reasons, but the fossil fuel industry has been staunchly supportive. President Obama noted that his opposition to the pipeline was rooted in concerns over climate change and the need to move away from hydrocarbons. Such a statement would have been almost impossible several years ago.
Tensions escalated in the Occupied West Bank as Palestinians used firearms to attack Israelis instead of knives and stones. Three people were injured in the attacks in the city of Hebron, and a Palestinian was killed by Israeli forces. “Since mid-September, 11 Israelis were killed in Palestinian attacks, most of them in stabbings, while 72 Palestinians were killed by Israeli fire….” The use of firearms indicates that the violence will likely escalate, and there is virtually no reason to believe that it will subside in the near future. On Monday, US President Obama and Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu will meet to discuss US-Israeli relations. It does not appear as if renewed Israeli-Palestinian negotiations is on the agenda for that meeting.
The US formally annexed Hawaii by an Act of Congress in 1893. Prior to that point it was known as the Kingdom of Hawaii. There is currently a move in Hawaii to recognize formally the rights of native Hawaiians within the framework of Hawaiian statehood in the US. The move is different from Federal recognition of Native American nations on the North American continent–those nations were formally incorporated into the Federal government as “domestic dependent nations.” But the status of Native Hawaiians has never been legally determined and there is some question about whether the Congressional annexation makes any sense in an international law framework. By most legal precedents, Hawaii should be considered “occupied territory” for those who never accepted the rule of the US government. The debate is a contemporary example of the difference between nation and state.
A new report indicates that the US attack on a hospital in Kunduz, Afghanistan which was run by Doctors Without Borders on 3 October of this year was, at best, a brutal example of extraordinary incompetence and, at worst, a fairly clear-cut war crime. I have been waiting for more information about the attack, and this latest report does not answer all the questions about the attack, but sheds enough light to indicate that the US is morally culpable for the incident. I will continue to wait for the US government report before I reach a conclusion, but these preliminary results are quite discouraging.
President Pierre Nkurunziza remains in office after his election in a disputed third term in office (the constitution only allows two terms). The country has been very tense since that disputed election and Nkurunziza amplified the tension by passing a edict requiring all citizens to hand over any guns in their possession. Analysts fear that violence will explode in the country as the deadline for the handovers of 7 November nears. Burundi has long experienced violent instability and a new flare-up will return the country to that depressing path.
Presidents Xi Jinping of China and Ma Ying-jeou of Taiwan are scheduled to meet this weekend in Singapore for the first such meeting since the Chinese civil war in 1949. In that year, the Kuomintang fled the mainland of China and set up an independent Republic of China in opposition to the People’s Republic of China established by Mao Zedong. The US supported the Republic of China until 1972 when US President Nixon recognized the PRC as the official government of the Chinese people. Since that time, China has regarded the government in Taiwan as a renegade province that needs ultimately to be unified with China. Presumably, that reunification will be a concern for the two Presidents, but it is unlikely that either side will make any explicit comments about it.
In a setback to efforts to control greenhouse gas emissions, researchers have found that China has underestimated its coal consumption by about 17%, or about the same amount of carbon dioxide that Germany emits in a year. The news will undoubtedly have an effect on the climate change talks scheduled for the end of the year in Paris. The discrepancy is an indication of how difficult it is to gather accurate information about the ecological consequences of human activity and does not necessarily reflect an attempt by China to distort its figures.
The latest theory behind the Russian airline tragedy in Egypt is that a bomb was responsible for the disaster. At this time, all I have are assertions by British intelligence agencies with hints of confirmation by US intelligence. There is no reason to rush to a judgment. I intend to wait for the evidence to be presented and assessed by experts. I vividly remember how we were all assured that Iraq had weapons of mass destruction in 2003.
In a very important development, Russia has indicated that it is not “important” for Syrian President Assad to remain in power. The working assumption behind the explanation for the strong Russian intervention in Syria was precisely that Russia wanted to keep Assad in power even though the West had said repeatedly that Assad had to go. Apparently, there have been behind the scene discussions between US Secretary of State Kerry and Russian Foreign Minister Lavrov that have been fruitful. How Assad leaves will depend on how Russia defines a “graceful” departure and how much slack the West in willing to give Assad–perhaps immunity from prosecution for war crimes or the retention of great wealth. We will see how Iran responds.
The Defense Ministers of the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) are meeting and struggling with the question of whether to take a stand on China’s territorial claims in the South China Sea. Most of the members oppose China’s claims, but Cambodia (which does not have a claim) is a strong Chinese ally. Since ASEAN insists on not taking votes but relies on consensus decisions instead, a statement would require a break from that rule. The decision will mark an important moment in the evolution of ASEAN as a political agent.
The pressure of refugees flooding into their countries is forcing some European nations to consider closing their borders in the same way that Hungary did a few weeks ago. Right now, the refugees are moving through the Balkan states of Croatia, Serbia, and Slovenia, into Austria and ultimately to Germany. Many, however, fear that the pressure on Germany to restrict the number of refugees it accepts will only grow, trapping the refugees in countries with much smaller populations and economies. Croatia is holding a national election in a few days, and if the right-wing candidate wins, it will almost certainly close its borders.
World Politics News 