World Politics News   Articles for World Politics Course

Update to the Situation in South Korea for those who are interested.  Bizarre beyond belief.  No quiz questions on this post–just For Your Information.

Americans will vote next Tuesday to determine whether a woman will be elected President for the first time in its history.  The US lags far behind the rest of the world.  The Economist examined the heads of states for 144 countries over the period 1966-2016 and found that 40% of those countries had a female head of state for some period of time.

The World Health Organization is reporting a dramatic spike in cases of multidrug-resistant tuberculosis in West Africa, particularly in densely populated areas such as the city of Lagos in Nigeria.  There are an estimated 10 million patients with tuberculosis in the world and of those about 500,000 have the multidrug resistant strains.  The problem is difficult to manage in areas such as West Africa which lack the resources to maintain the vigilant treatment necessary for this disease.  But it is hardly confined to poor regions of the world.  Tuberculosis is a transmissable disease and the need to contain and defeat it is a global responsibility.

The British High Court has ruled that Parliament must vote on the British exit from the European Union.  The ruling will significantly delay British negotiations with the EU on the terms of its departure under Article 50 of the Union Charter.  It will complicate Prime Minster May’s decision-making process and allow a great deal of mischief to creep into the permissable terms for British exit.  The ruling is also a deep disappointment to the EU which wanted the process to be expedited in order to avoid possible complications from the national elections  in France, Germany and the Netherlands later in 2017.  The terms of the British exit have become even harder to predict.

Russia has charged that the US-supported attack on Mosul is the equivalent of its own attack on the city of Aleppo.  The statement is an attempt to deflect the serious criticisms of Russian attacks on civilians in Aleppo.  The comparison was angrily rejected by State Department Spokesperson:

“In Aleppo, as I think we’ve just talked in the last few minutes, you have the specific targeting of innocent civilians, first responders, and infrastructure – hospitals – that are specifically being targeted and destroyed, whereas in Mosul the air power that’s being used by the coalition is very precise, very discriminate. Great care is taken to avoid civilian casualties, and certainly there is going to be no concerted effort, as there is in Aleppo, to destroy civilian infrastructure. In fact, quite the opposite; we’re going to try to preserve as much as we can after so much has been laid waste by Daesh over the last two years.

“As a matter of fact – and this is another big difference – unlike in Aleppo, the coalition and the Iraqi Government are working towards post-campaign stabilization. We’re actually working on building contracts so that people can go in and clean up what rubble there is from the campaign and repaint buildings, and restore electricity and water services, and get people back to work. You don’t hear anything like that coming from Assad and from the Russians with respect to Aleppo.”

The evidence on the aerial bombardment in Aleppo is quite extensive and the reports of attacks on hospitals come from highly reputable sources such as Doctors without Borders.  As of yet, I have not read any reports of aerial bombardments in Mosul.  But the issue bears close monitoring.

Two newly elected members of Hong Kong’s Legislative Council have changed the wording of their oaths of office in ways that communicate their firm belief that Hong Kong should be independent of the central government of China.  The two, Yau Wai-ching and Sixtus Leung, also displayed a banner that read “Hong Kong Is Not China” at their swearing in.  The Chinese government in Beijing has reacted quite negatively to the dissents and is seeking ways to defuse the threat of secession. Great Britain gave up control over Hong Kong, but the British insisted that the freedoms guaranteed to residents of Hong Kong under its rule be honored until 2047 under an arrangement termed “one country, two systems”.  The dissidents believe that China violated that principle in 2014 when it interfered with the legislative council elections.  The episode is highly embarrassing to China but it is doubtful that the dissidents will succeed in their efforts.

The chief Chinese climate negotiator, Xie Zhenhua, has publicly rebuked Republican Presidential candidate Donald Trump for indicating that, if elected, he would reject the Paris Accord recently signed by almost 200 countries.  The statement is highly ironic since Mr. Trump is on record as believing that climate change is a hoax inspired by the Chinese government to stymie American economic growth.  The lack of attention to the issue of climate change in the current political discussions in the US is inexcusable.

There are a variety of perspectives on contemporary American foreign policy.  Some, like Donald Trump, believe that the US should pursue its national interests aggressively.  Others, like Hillary Clinton, believe that the US should continue to follow a policy of multilateral engagement.  A third position is that of President Obama who is trying to rein in American commitments abroad in a subdued policy of realpolitik so that American commitments can be more carefully tailored to American capabilities.   One perspective that is not often articulated in the traditional media is that the US should pare back its commitments to avoid the danger of “imperial” overstretch.  Jeffrey Sachs has written an essay for the Boston Globe that outlines the logic of the leftist critique of the American Empire.

The battle for Mosul continues and it also appears as if the US is thinking seriously about targeting the Syrian city of Raqqa.  Both cities are the main bases for Daesh (the Islamic State) so one of the central questions in this chess game is where will Daesh go if it loses its main bases?  One should always think about the consequences of “success” when planning a long-term foreign policy. The problem is that there is no good evidence about how Daesh is thinking about its next move.  Justin Salhani offers some ideas about how to anticipate its move.

More violence is occurring along the border between India and Pakistan in Kashmir. Even more troubling are reports that many young Pakistani men are leaving home to join the Pakistani militants committed to ending Indian control of parts of Kashmir.  The anecdotal evidence is hardly conclusive, but it suggests that it is quite possible that a much larger offensive is being planned. The situation now is barely under control and the prospects of a major war between the two nuclear armed powers are becoming more real every day.

Americans are currently wrestling with the question of whether their elections are free and fair.  Freedom House has long ranked electoral systems on a scale of zero to 12, with 12 being as free and fair as possible.  The US currently earns an 11 on that scale.  The Pew Research Center has examined the most recent results of the ranking and it found that:

“Of the 195 sovereign countries Freedom House ranked this year (using 2015 data), 61 scored 12 out of 12 on the group’s electoral process scale – among them Australia, Canada, Japan and the UK. Besides the U.S., 16 other countries received 11 points out of 12.”

The Center also gives information on other rankings, and the US ranks high, but not among the highest in the world.

There has been movement between the Philippines and China on control of the South China Sea.  More specifically, the changes surround control of the Scarborough Shoal which is separate from the other disputed areas such as the Spratly or the Paracel Islands because only the Philippines has a competing claim to the Shoal.  Since 2012 Chinese naval vessels have been chasing Filipino fishermen away from the shoal, but it now appears as if Filipino fisherman are being allowed back in.  It is too soon to determine what the move means.  The Chinese have not relinquished their territorial claim to the Shoal but neither has the Philippines.

In 2014 the Ukrainian people overthrew a government they believed was hopelessly corrupt.  In the intervening two years, the campaign against governmental corruption has led to a rather remarkable innovation:  a requirement that all Ukrainian officials must publicly declare their wealth and property.  It is fair to say that the results of the declarations were stunning:  Ukrainian public officials are incredibly wealthy.  The requirement is something that all democracies should embrace.  The US has reporting rules, but they are not nearly as stringent.  The average net worth of a person in Congress is $1.03 million, twelve times the net worth of the average American household.

The evidence of global warming in the Arctic is fairly clear:  the sea ice coverage seems to decline every year.  But the situation in Antarctica is quite different since most of the ice there rests on land, not on the sea.  With refined techniques, however, scientists have learned that much of the South Pole’s ice is melting from the bottom up as warming water intrudes between the land and the ice.  Ice melting in Antarctica is potentially more troubling since virtually all the water from the melt would add to the water in the oceans unlike the Arctic melt which does not add to the total ocean volume.  According to Bloomberg:

“There’s enough water locked up in West Antarctica’s Amundsen Sea region alone to raise the global average sea level by four feet, and it’s the fastest-melting spot on the continent.”

Unfortunately, we do not have enough data yet to assess the seriousness of the problem.

The US Senate has passed a bill, 85-13, that will require women to register for the military draft.  This law, if passed by the House of Representatives, marks the first time women in the US would be subjected to conscription.  The military draft for men was in force from 1948 to 1973 when it ended because of opposition to the Vietnam War.  It was reinstated in 1980 after the Soviet invasion of Afghanistan.  Right now, all men between the ages of 18-25 have to register for the military draft.

A scandal is engulfing President Park Geun-hye of South Korea and it is not a typical scandal.  President Park sands accused of being influenced by a friend, Choi Soon-sil, who is involved in a sect called the Church of Eternal Life and a movement called the Movement for a New Mind.  The activities of Choi are described by some as “shamanistic” and there is evidence that Choi has been heavily implicated in suspicious money-raising ventures.  President Park has requested the resignations of many of her senior advisers and her approval rating has sunk to 14%.  There have been large protests demanding Park’s resignation.

Bonus Link: No quiz questions for this link

For those who wish to learn more about the problems at Deutsche Bank, Spiegel has a very detailed article about how this once proud bank fell on hard times.  It may yet survive, but globalization was not kind.

Virtually all the adults have been moved out of the refugee center in Calais and into small towns scattered all over France.  It remains to be seen whether the move will be successful.  If the French economy were booming, the chances for effective integration would be much higher.  But it certainly does not sound like there are many jobs for the migrants.  Nor does it seem like they are being welcomed by the residents of the smaller, agricultural areas.  It also appears as if many of the migrants have decided to remain in the larger cities, and are coping in ways that will likely make it difficult for all.

Belgium has decided to approved the trade pact with Canada despite the recent referendum results in the province of Wallonia.  The pact was therefore saved and the European Union will sign CETA.    The reasons for the affirmative vote are opaque.  Belgium declared that changes had been made to satisfy the agricultural interests in the country.  Canadian officials said that no part of the pact had been changed.  Obviously, there were some tense negotiations in Brussels and perhaps we will never know what happened.  But it was likely impossible for Belgium to resist the pressure of its much more powerful neighbors.  In this particular case, globalization has prevailed over nationalism.

The Teaching, Research, and International Policy (TRIP) Project is based at the College of William & Mary’s Institute for the Theory and Practice of International Relations (ITPIR).  The project regularly polls IR scholars (they even ask me!!?!) about foreign policy issues.  Their most recent poll asked questions about US involvement in the global economy–essentially a question about support for globalization.  The discrepancy between IR scholars and the general public on this issue is stark, but it is clear that educational attainment is the critical variable.

Chinese President Xi Jinping has been named a “core” leader by the Communist Party, a term formerly reserved for Mao Zedong and Deng Xiaoping.  Mr. Xi continues to consolidate power in China in ways that undermine that collective power of the Party leadership.  The move was endorsed by the People’s Daily, the Party’s media mouthpiece (Google will translate the article for those who cannot read Chinese).  The move also mimics the global shift toward stronger single-person leadership, a troubling trend for democracy.

In terms of protest votes, few countries do it as well as Iceland (although, for a while, the Five Star Movement in Italy was doing quite well).  The people once voted the candidate of the Best Party to be mayor of their capital city.  But now the Pirate Party is poised to become one of the dominant players in Icelandic politics. The Party formed in 2012 as a protest against corruption in the government.  It crowdsourced a constitution and believes strongly in direct democracy.  But it is a little thin on policy so far.

Russia lost its seat on the UN Human Rights Council after it failed to secure enough votes to retain its seat.  There was organized opposition to Russia’s continued membership becuase of concerns over Russia’s conduct in the Syrian civil war.  The Council membership is determined by a vote by the 193 countries comprising the UN General Assembly. There were also efforts to keep Saudi Arabia off the Council but that effort failed.

Steven Cook has written an essay for The Atlantic which discusses one of the fundamental assumptions of Liberalism:  that there are universal human rights.  He poses the issue in a very interesting way by asking the question “How Should Culture Affect Foreign Policy?”  Some of Cook’s insights are genuinely controversial:

“Maybe Egyptians, for example, have not been able to carry out economic reforms hatched in Washington effectively because those reforms undermine a sense of communal solidarity and a large, patriarchal Arab state, which seem linked to an Egyptian cultural milieu that valorizes these things.”

Yet the question deserves an answer.  Perhaps the failures of American foreign policy in various areas  of the world are due to an unwillingness to modify or adapt central assumptions of liberal thought to local conditions.  But how far should these principles be bent?

The Living Planet assessment, by the Zoological Society of London (ZSL) and the World Wildlife Federation, has found that global wildlife populations have declined by 58% over the last 40 years. According to the BBC:

“The researchers conclude that vertebrate populations are declining by an average of 2% each year, and warn that if nothing is done, wildlife populations could fall by 67% (below 1970 levels) by the end of the decade.”

One should not put too much stock in the numbers themselves.  While there is broad agreement that wildlife populations are declining, the difficulties in collecting accurate information are formidable.  The trend, however, is clear.

Pussy Riot is a Russian punk rock band that takes great delight in preforming in ways that challenges the powers that be.  The members of the band performed  “Punk Prayer – Mother of God, Chase Putin Away!” in the Cathedral of Christ the Savior in Moscow in 2012 and two members of the punk band spent 21 months in jail charged with “hooliganism motivated by religious hatred”. They have now released a music video entitled “Vagina” as a slap against Donald Trump.   It is unquestionably intended to offend so I would not recommend the video to anyone with reasonable sensibilities.  But art is a potent expression of many parts of society that are typically voiceless, so an offensive voice is sometimes better than silence.

For a number of years, many states have been pushing for a whale sanctuary in the South Atlantic.  The International Whaling Commission was created in 1946 in order to protect whales and other cetaceans which were in danger of extinction due to hunting.  The proposal was defeated–38 countries voted yes and 24 against–but the Commission requires a 75% affirmative vote to make the recommendation binding. The opposition to the sanctuary was led by Japan some of whose citizens regard whale meat as a delicacy.  Hunting continues under the rubric of “scientific research” but that loophole is disingenuous.

The Philippine president, Rodrigo Duterte, has announced that he wants all foreign troops out of the Philippines.  The US currently has 5 military bases in the Philippines which are regarded as centrally important to maintain a US role in Pacific affairs.  Duterte made the announcement during a stop in Japan from his meetings in China and the announcement undoubtedly rattled the Japanese who regard the US presence in the region as critically important.

The Russian naval fleet en route from Severomorsk, Russia to the coast of Syria has decided not to re-fuel at the Spanish facilities in Ceuta, off the Strait of Gilbraltar.  The initial Russian request placed Spain, a NATO member, in an awkward position since NATO countries are uncomfortable with the Russian role in Syria, particularly the suspicion that the Russians are committing war crimes.  Ordinarily a request to re-fuel is not considered a military act among states that have peaceful relations, but the pressure on Spain was probably quite intense.