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The New York Times recently assessed Trump’s response to the most recent Iranian proposal to end the war.

“In the post on Truth Social, Mr. Trump cast doubt that the latest proposal would satisfy him, asserting that Iran has ‘not yet paid a big enough price for what they have done to Humanity, and the World, over the last 47 years.’”

This is a statement from a person who knows he has lost. It is a revealing and terrifying statement because it suggests that Trump wants Iran to pay the highest price possible for its ability to outlast the US and Israel. For reasons that are inexplicable, Trump seemed to be unaware that the Strait of Hormuz was completely under Iranian control. That control, however, is not based on military power, but rather by geography and that transit through the Strait is dictated more by economic considerations, and not military ones. As long as Iran controls its coastline, very few commercial vessels will take the risk of being blown up by a drone. And the only way to take away this power from Iran would be to forcibly occupy the coast which is between 840-870 miles–an impossible task for the US and Israeli militaries.

Trump keeps repeating the mantra that the US and Israel have destroyed Iran’s Air Force and Navy. That may be true, but it is also irrelevant. North Vietnam had neither and still won the war. The Taliban had neither but still won the war. Trump and the civilians in the Department of Defense are wedded to an archaic definition of war; I suspect that the intelligence agencies and most of the military in the Department of Defense are well aware of the perils of an asymmetric war.

Furthermore, the US has lost its credibility as a protector of the Gulf States–Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates, Kuwait, Qatar, and Oman. It had placed military bases in these states as a guaranty of security, backed up by US missile interceptors. But it is clear that these bases are not defensible from drone and missile attacks.

Iran inflicted extensive, multi‑billion‑dollar damage on U.S. military bases across the Persian Gulf, primarily through large‑scale missile and drone strikes that hit radar systems, hangars, warehouses, command centers, and key naval infrastructure.

Across Bahrain, Qatar, the UAE, and other Gulf host nations, Iran’s retaliation after U.S.–Israeli strikes produced the most severe damage to U.S. regional basing in decades.

1. Bahrain – U.S. Fifth Fleet Headquarters (Most Heavily Hit)

• Thousands of Iranian drones and missiles targeted the base over six weeks.
• Radar systems, aircraft hangars, warehouses, and command centers were struck.
• Satellite imagery showed large fires, structural destruction, and cratered areas.
• The attacks triggered one of the largest evacuations of U.S. military families in recent history.

2. UAE – Al Dhafra Air Base

• Iranian‑released satellite images (still debated) show crater impacts and burn scars on U.S. aviation and logistics infrastructure.
• Analysts note these images may reflect real damage or information warfare, but they were widely circulated as evidence of successful strikes.

3. Qatar – U.S. Air and Logistics Facilities

• Iranian state‑linked media circulated imagery claiming missile damage to U.S. installations in Qatar.
• Independent verification remains mixed, but the images contributed to global perception of broad U.S. vulnerability.

4. Iraq – U.S. Munitions Facility

• NBC‑confirmed reporting states Iran’s precision strikes severely damaged a U.S. munitions site, part of a wider pattern of coordinated attacks.

Scale of Damage

• U.S. investigations estimate over $5 billion in infrastructure losses, excluding destroyed radar and weapons systems.
• All 13 U.S. Gulf bases experienced at least partial closure or evacuation.
• Iran used Chinese satellite intelligence to refine targeting, increasing strike accuracy.

US protection is no longer credible, and the Gulf states now need to figure out a workable relationship with Iran. They also need to redefine their relationship to Israel and the US. In truth, Iran and the Gulf states share similar objectives: to allow the flow of petroleum and natural gas out of the Persian Gulf. There are many issues that divide them, but they all share an overriding dependence on the sale of oil to the outside world.

They will find willing supporters to reduce their dependence on the US. China has made clear that it will not submit to US sanctions on deals with Iran. For the first time, China has invoked its 2021 Anti-Foreign Sanctions Law and issued a statement ordering all Chinese firms and individuals not to comply with U.S. sanctions targeting five independent Chinese oil refineries accused of purchasing Iranian crude. This decision will force Trump to decide whether he wishes to challenge China despite the US dependence on Chinese rare earth minerals that are indispensable to rebuilding the weaponry expended by the US and Israel since the 28 February attack. Again, I suspect that economic interests will win out over the nationalist impulses of the US, but perhaps not Israel.

The US needs to accept the fact that Iran will ultimately prevail in this war. But I sincerely doubt that Trump will ever accept that outcome. His ridiculous assertion that Iran must “pay a price” for its victory is petulant and signals Trump’s intent to blow up as much of Iranian infrastructure as possible even though there is no possibility for a military victory.