The economic and political situation in Hungary has been deteriorating for several months. The country’s debt has achieved a “junk” credit rating, and the Fidesz Party has been slowly concentrating power at the expense of political rights. The slow move toward a right-wing non-liberal state is reminiscent of the rise to power of Miklós Horthy in 1920, the first of what would become a long line of right wing nationalist leaders in Europe in the 1920s and 1930s. Let’s hope that the parallel remains superficial.
The Russian protests against the rule of Vladimir Putin continue, adding yet another dimension to the year of protests. Starting with Tunisia, popular dissatisfaction with government has been highly visible in many countries this year. Much of this anger is stimulated by the sense that governments have become corrupt and out of touch with the public at large. We should watch this trend next year to see if it continues or even deepens.
Violence continues in Iraq, fueled primarily by the Sunni-Shia sectarian split. The political power of the Sunni (20% of the population) was established long ago by the British, and it only ended after Saddam Hussein was overthrown by the US invasion. The Shia (60% of the population–Kurds are the other 20%) are now in power, and the transition is going to be very difficult. The removal of American troops has opened up the possibilities for greater violence as the country tries to find a comfortable political equilibrium.
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