President Trump has announced that tomorrow will be “Liberation Day” as he levies new tariffs on imports into the US. The road to this day has been littered with many inconsistencies and incoherent explanations, so tomorrow will afford an opportunity to assess his real intent. He claims that other countries have used tariffs to aid their own industries at the expense of US products. If these claims are valid, the US always has the option of bringing a case to the World Trade Organization to redress the wrong suffered. But Trump has studiously avoided any appeal to any international organization and instead relied upon unilateral US action.
Trump has also chosen the tactic of deliberate ambiguity in a pathetic attempt to gain an advantage against the countervailing tariffs that other states will impose on US products–an outcome that is all but inevitable. That outcome is the main reason most economists think that raising tariffs will reduce global economic growth as happened in the 1930s when the US imposed the infamous Hawley-Smoot tariffs. Alexi Guagas assesses the impact of those tariffs:
“The Hawley-Smoot Tariff Act raised tariffs on over 20,000 goods, intending to protect struggling sectors like farming and manufacturing. Instead, it sparked a global trade war, with countries around the world retaliating by imposing their own tariffs. By the mid-1930s, global trade had plummeted by more than 65%. Far from boosting the U.S. economy, the tariffs deepened the economic downturn, worsening the effects of the Great Depression. Hawley-Smoot remains a defining example of how protectionist policy, in a globally connected economy, can have far-reaching negative consequences.”
I am certain that Trump is aware of this negative outcome, so his persistent support for tariffs must have another motive. Tomorrow’s announcement will give us all an opportunity to discern Trump’s intent. Right now, there appears to be an emphasis on the revenues that tariffs will bring in, particularly if the tariffs imposed are universal: on all products from all countries. Peter Navarro has bandied about a figure of $6 trillion over ten years as a likely outcome (perhaps in a fevered dream as he languished in a prison cell for contempt of Congress). Moreover, Trump links the tariff plan to a rebirth of US manufacturing since he anticipates that companies will choose to build their factories in the US in order to avoid the tariffs. The Washington Post reports:
“One option would raise import duties on products from virtually every country, rejecting more targeted approaches that have been publicly outlined in recent days by some of Trump’s senior advisers. It cites as its legal justification the 1977 International Emergency Economic Powers Act, which grants the president broad powers to regulate international transactions, the people said.
“One person familiar with the administration’s thinking said the White House believes it would, combined with additional tariffs on sectors such as automobile and pharmaceutical imports, raise more than $6 trillion in new federal revenue and amount to the biggest tax hike in decades.”
If these possibilities are what is motivating Trump, then it is important to recognize that they have nothing to do with unfair trading practices. Rather, they reflect a desire to completely restructure the US economy and its taxation system. If the figure of $6 trillion over ten years is a prominent motive, then one has to consider that Trump is thinking about replacing the personal income tax with tariff revenues. $6 trillion over ten years would pay for Trump’s tax cut extensions that overwhelmingly favor the rich. It would fit nicely with Trump’s clear intent to eviscerate the Internal Revenue Service, a political move with tremendous power for his supporters. But just using tariff revenues would punish the poor and middle classes since it is essentially a sales tax on products.
A far more insidious motive would be to use tariffs to induce companies to build their factories in the US. That goal sounds laudable, but it is highly unlikely that tariffs alone would be a sufficient inducement to most companies. But the heavy use of tariffs would immiserate large numbers of workers, perhaps enough to compel them to accept lower wages or to end their support for unions. Significantly lower labor costs would be a powerful incentive for companies to bring their factories back to the US. That strategy would allow the rich to enjoy greater profits. The price, however, would be the impoverishment of millions of workers in the US and would likely drag down wages globally.
So, we should listen carefully to the rhetoric of “Liberation Day”. If it turns out that the tariffs are not focused on specific products or countries and are generally uniform across countries, then it is a safe bet that they have the purpose of a radical restructuring of the American economy. Making most people much poorer, and enriching the small number of people with capital enough to manage the turmoil of such a restructuring.
The video below is chilling, and I honestly could not believe it when I first saw it. According to The Guardian:
“Rumeysa Ozturk, a doctoral student in Boston detained on Tuesday by federal immigration agents in response to her pro-Palestinian activism, was on Wednesday evening being detained at the South Louisiana Ice processing center, according to the government’s Immigration and Customs Enforcement (Ice) detainee locator page.
“The transfer of Ozturk, a PhD student at Tufts University, appeared to violate a federal court order from Tuesday, which directed the Department of Homeland Security (DHS) and Ice to give the court 48 hours’ notice before attempting to take her out of Massachusetts.
“After Ozturk’s transfer to Louisiana emerged from the online locator, the federal judge ordered DHS and Ice to respond to an emergency request in court on Wednesday to produce Ozturk, by 9am ET on Thursday.”
The article cites an ICE official who claimed that Ozturk’s student visa (she is a Fulbright scholar at Tufts) was revoked because of her purported support of Hamas and not because she had committed any crime.
The thuggish nature of this action was clearly calculated to intimidate. The message is clear: if a student shows any sympathy for Palestinians, she cannot assume that she will be afforded the right of free speech. This action is not isolated and it is consistent with the Trump Administration’s conflation of anti-semitism with support for the right of self-determination for the Palestinian people.
The video should provoke outrage among those who believe in the First Amendment. So far, it has been overshadowed by the firestorm over the critical security failure of the Trump foreign policy team. But we should all imagine ourselves in Ozturk’s shoes and how dangerous the deportation policy is to the freedoms of citizens and non-citizens.
It was a discouraging week and I haven’t had the will to make sense of it. But there are three issues that are of real concern.
First, there were no Republicans (as far as I could tell) who honored their oath to defend the Constitution. Trump’s invocation of the Alien Enemies Act was cluttered with all sorts of questions: Has the US been invaded by a state? Were all those who were deported really members of a gang? And why do the Republicans simply say that Trump was elected to get rid of people despite the guarantees demanded by the Constitution? And did Trump really sign the proclamation? Or is he so senile that he cannot remember?
Second, the Netanyahu government is clearly conducting ethnic cleansing in the Gaza Strip. Why else would Israel continue aerial bombardments and deny the introduction of necessary food, water, and medicine? It has become clear that many Palestinians are refusing to leave the Strip despite the horrific conditions because they fear a second Nakba. So, Israel will simply continue to punish those who remain in hopes that Palestinian resolve can be crushed. Israel will claim that the surviving Palestinians in the Gaza are going to leave the Gaza “voluntarily”. As I have stated before, this is a war of conquest, not a war of self-defense.
Third, Trump has extorted Columbia University to submit to intolerable conditions, including placing one of its Departments into receivership. It’s not clear to me that the Columbia campus is a hotbed of antisemitism (Columbia continues to attract Jewish students who comprise 20% of the student body–the highest percentage in the Ivies) or that Trump understands what antisemitism is or that he even cares. The capitulation of the University to crime gang tactics is a horrible lesson for higher education in the US. And the effect on free speech is catastrophic. Roy Cohn is watching (from hell) his star pupil conduct a witch hunt of historic measure.
So, I retreat into music. I can think about these matters for a period of time, and then I simply have to turn it all off. I am more convinced than ever that Trump’s term in office will not extend to 4 years (at some point the Republican Party will have to realize that it is digging its own grave). But waiting for the corrupt house of cards collapse is draining. The first three songs are done by Playing for Change. I played one of these songs in my lecture on globalization when I taught World Politics. I explained that globalization had all sorts of problems, but also some extraordinary opportunities. To choreograph these songs in a manner that compressed time and space was an important insight. Until the very recent past, such an enterprise was impossible. But Playing for Change was able to take simple songs and to unite people from all over the world to send the same message, even though the instruments and the language were all different. More importantly, Playing for Change was able to prove that there are brilliant artists who work the streets every day, and that the glitter and rouge of pop culture is nothing more than a very unfortunate distraction from the real meaning of music.
The Trump Administration has begun a full-fledged assault on freedom of speech and has focused on colleges and universities and the issue of Palestinian rights. It has singled out Columbia University for its handling of pro-Palestinian protests. The protests were directed against Israel’s war in the Gaza Strip and the widespread deaths and destruction that were designed to “eliminate” Hamas for its actions on 7 October 2023. The scale of destruction undermines Israel’s claims of self-defense: while remnants of Hamas still exist, it is difficult to imagine that the organization poses any substantial risk to the Israeli state.
“Several agencies sent a joint letter demanding disciplinary changes and the right to monitor an academic department as a precondition to restoring $400 million in federal funding. Deputy Attorney General Todd Blanche said the Justice Department is investigating Columbia not only for civil rights violations but also for ‘terrorism crimes.’
“Administration officials, including Trump, have been vague about what constitutes antisemitism. But the crackdown fulfills multiple campaign promises: a pledge to stand with American Jews, whom he heavily courted for their votes in November; a promise to combat ‘anti-American’ behavior on liberal campuses; and, perhaps his top policy priority, the deportation of noncitizens living in the United States illegally.
What is clear is that Trump is willing to use the full power of the federal government, including its purse strings, to dramatically change behavior — by both students and administrators — on college campuses. Trump applauded the detention of Columbia University graduate student Mahmoud Khalil and called it ‘the first arrest of many to come.’”
The Trump Administration has not defined what it means by antisemitism. It refers to a hopelessly vague statement made by the Working Definition of Anti-Semitism by the European Monitoring Center on Racism and Xenophobia. That definition reads:
“Anti-Semitism is a certain perception of Jews, which may be expressed as hatred toward Jews. Rhetorical and physical manifestations of anti-Semitism are directed toward Jewish or non-Jewish individuals and/or their property, toward Jewish community institutions and religious facilities.”
Note that the working definition does not mention the state of Israel. It only refers to Jews. The relationship between Israel’s identity as a Jewish state and its obligations as a secular state in the international system is fraught with peril. Does supporting the right of self-determination of the Palestinian people attack or denigrate Judaism? For some in Israel, the expansion of Israeli borders to those roughly comparable to the covenant made by God to the Jewish people is such an offense. But secular international law does not recognize the Bible (or the Koran) as authoritative. Moreover some living in the contested regions trace their heritage to a period of time before Jews even arrived in the region. Indeed, the very name, “Jerusalem” means “City of Shalem” (a non-Jewish deity).
The current danger is that the Trump Administration conflates antisemitism with any attack on the state ot Israel. Some attacks on Israel are clearly antisemitic–calls for the elimination of the state of Israel are unquestionably antisemitic. But are calls for recognizing the right of self-determination for Palestinians necessarily antisemitic? My own opinion is that as long as those calls are restricted to areas not recognized by a majority of states in the system as part of Israel (the Gaza Strip, the West Back, and the Golan Heights), they do not represent an attack on the state of Israel. It is a fine, but defensible, distinction and one worth protecting.
But fine distinctions are often lost in protest movements–they are often a messy amalgam of people with very different agendas. In my own experience in protests against the Vietnam war, the movements were populated by some who genuinely thought that US policy was morally indefensible; some thought the war was impossible to win; some joined the protests because they supported North Vietnam; some supported North Vietnam because they were socialists or communists; and some joined the movement in search of rock and roll, sex, and drugs. The same is true of the protests against Israeli actions in the Gaza Strip.
We still do not know what Mahmoud Khalil did or said in the Columbia anti-Israel protests. He certainly was a central figure in the movement, but his proposed deportation by the Trump Administration was justified because he participated in “activities aligned to Hamas.” He was in the US legally as a student at the Columbia School of International and Public Affairs (I have a degree from that school) and thus was protected by the US Constitution. At some point we deserve to hear more specific details about what Khalil’s “activities” were that were not protected by the First Amendment. I sincerely doubt, however, that Khalil will be found to have done nothing more than to forcefully advicate for the rights of the Palestinian people.
The decision to punish Khalil was accompanied by punishments against Columbia University for its failure to prevent antisemitic acts on campus. Those punishments are outlined in a letter to Columbia sent by the Trump Adminstration. That letter can be viewed below
The scale and scope of these punishments are extraordinary and represent a ruthless threat to all colleges and universities in the US. The arrogance of asking for all these changes to be detailed in 7 days is breathtaking. It represents a very direct intervention by the state into the curriculum of Columbia by putting various departments in “receivership”. Finally, by not carefully articulating the charges against Khalil, the Trump Administration has created a huge grey zone in which academics might fear to express their true thoughts for fear of jeopardizing their institution. These moves mimic the actions of the Nazi Government as described in an article in Nature:
“The problem originated in 1933, when the Nazi government issued a law that stripped those who had decided to leave Germany because of persecution not only of German citizenship but also of academic qualifications, mostly doctorates.
“Soon after, the law was extended to any German resident exhibiting ‘antisocial behaviour’ — a move targeted at Jewish, communist and dissident academics.
“Each university was ordered by the ministry of education to alter its rules to facilitate the derecognition of doctorates. Although the 31 universities then in Germany differed in the extent to which they applied the law, by 1945 an estimated 1,000 academics had lost their titles in this way.”
The problem originated in 1933, when the Nazi government issued a law that stripped those who had decided to leave Germany because of persecution not only of German citizenship but also of academic qualifications, mostly doctorates.
Soon after, the law was extended to any German resident exhibiting ‘antisocial behaviour’ — a move targeted at Jewish, communist and dissident academics.
What makes this position of the Trump Administration so galling is that it does not hold itself to the same standards. One of Trump’s key adivsors, Elon Musk, retweeted this post, which is unquestionably anitsemitic: “Stalin, Mao and Hitler didn’t murder millions of people. Their public sector workers did.” The Trump Administration should immediately cancel all of Musk’s contracts with the Federal Government if it does not want to contradict its own policies.
“The Ministry of Peace concerns itself with war, the Ministry of Truth with lies, the Ministry of Love with torture and the Ministry of Plenty with starvation. These contradictions are not accidental, nor do they result from from ordinary hypocrisy: they are deliberate exercises in doublethink” ― George Orwell, 1984
“I have instructed my Secretary of Commerce to add an ADDITIONAL 25% Tariff, to 50%, on all STEEL and ALUMINUM COMING INTO THE UNITED STATES FROM CANADA, ONE OF THE HIGHEST TARIFFING NATIONS ANYWHERE IN THE WORLD…The only thing that makes sense is for Canada to become our cherished Fifty First State…This would make all Tariffs, and everything else, totally disappear.”
These justifications are ridiculous. One needs to remember that it was Trump himself who negotiated the trade agreement between the US, Mexico, and Canada in July 2020, and at that time he posted this celebratory message: “BIGGEST TRADE DEAL EVER MADE, the USMCA, was signed yesterday and the Fake News Media barely mentioned it. They never thought it could be done. They have zero credibility!” Canada made no changes to its tariffs between 2020 and the recent struggle over tariffs rates. Moreover the flow of fentanyl over the US Canadian border is miniscule. According to Newsweek:
“According to U.S. Customs and Border Protection (CBP) data, around 43 pounds of fentanyl were intercepted coming from Canada into the U.S. last year, whereas Canadian authorities intercepted about 11 pounds going the opposite way during the same period.
“The Canada Border Services Agency (CBSA) reported six fentanyl seizures last month alone, all originating from the U.S. In one of the seizures, 56.1 grams of fentanyl were discovered by agents at the Windsor-Detroit Tunnel port of entry, including 20 fentanyl pills and 23 grams of a substance suspected to be fentanyl, all brought in by a pair U.S. citizens.
“Taken together, these seizures represent a tiny fraction compared to the more than 21,000 pounds seized at the U.S.-Mexico border over the course of 2024.”
All these justifications for the tariffs are spurious. But that begs the question. Trump has advisers that unquestionably have told him that American consumers will be paying higher prices for these products. Trump persists, however. Why?
Trump has announced the creation of something he calls the External Revenue Service to collect the tariff revenues. Such a new agency would require an act of Congress, so it is still a pipe dream. Right now, the tariff revenues are collected by the US Commerce Department and US Border and Customs Protection. Trump wants this revenue to offset the budget deficits that he will unquestionably aggravate with his proposed tax cuts for upper-income citizens.
The proposed tariffs will cost US families significantly more. Estimates range from $2,600 to $4000 increases per family. This is actually a tax increase on US families, and it is a tax increase not approved by Congress. Trump’s authority to raise tariffs comes from Congressional legislation that authorizes such power in case of an emergency. I actually see no emergency warranting these tariff increases–the closest “emergency” may be fentanyl, but the amounts from Canada do not warrant emergency status. So Trump has effectively managed a “stealth tax”, sidestepping the Constitutional power granted exclusively to Congress.
At some point in the future, Trump will announce the tariff revenues as part of his budget package. But he cannot admit that reality right now because it would expose his duplicity. But Congress should be aware of the extraordinary erosion of one of its central powers.
The New York Times has published a list of words that have been flagged by agencies within the Federal Government as ones to not use or avoid. For an Administration that proclaims its commitment to freedom of speech, the list can only be appreciated after reading George Orwell’s novel, 1984. The list is as follows:
accessible
activism
activists
advocacy
advocate
advocates
affirming care
all-inclusive
allyship
anti-racism
antiracist
assigned at birth
assigned female at birth
assigned male at birth
at risk
barrier
barriers
belong
bias
biased
biased toward
biases
biases towards
biologically female
biologically male
BIPOC
Black
breastfeed + people
breastfeed + person
chestfeed + people
chestfeed + person
clean energy
climate crisis
climate science
commercial sex worker
community diversity
community equity
confirmation bias
cultural competence
cultural differences
cultural heritage
cultural sensitivity
culturally appropriate
culturally responsive
DEI
DEIA
DEIAB
DEIJ
disabilities
disability
discriminated
discrimination
discriminatory
disparity
diverse
diverse backgrounds
diverse communities
diverse community
diverse group
diverse groups
diversified
diversify
diversifying
diversity
enhance the diversity
enhancing diversity
environmental quality
equal opportunity
equality
equitable
equitableness
equity
ethnicity
excluded
exclusion
expression
female
females
feminism
fostering inclusivity
GBV
gender
gender based
gender based violence
gender diversity
gender identity
gender ideology
gender-affirming care
genders
Gulf of Mexico
hate speech
health disparity
health equity
hispanic minority
historically
identity
immigrants
implicit bias
implicit biases
inclusion
inclusive
inclusive leadership
inclusiveness
inclusivity
increase diversity
increase the diversity
indigenous community
inequalities
inequality
inequitable
inequities
inequity
injustice
institutional
intersectional
intersectionality
key groups
key people
key populations
Latinx
LGBT
LGBTQ
marginalize
marginalized
men who have sex with men
mental health
minorities
minority
most risk
MSM
multicultural
Mx
Native American
non-binary
nonbinary
oppression
oppressive
orientation
people + uterus
people-centered care
person-centered
person-centered care
polarization
political
pollution
pregnant people
pregnant person
pregnant persons
prejudice
privilege
privileges
promote diversity
promoting diversity
pronoun
pronouns
prostitute
race
race and ethnicity
racial
racial diversity
racial identity
racial inequality
racial justice
racially
racism
segregation
sense of belonging
sex
sexual preferences
sexuality
social justice
sociocultural
socioeconomic
status
stereotype
stereotypes
systemic
systemically
they/them
trans
transgender
transsexual
trauma
traumatic
tribal
unconscious bias
underappreciated
underprivileged
underrepresentation
underrepresented
underserved
undervalued
victim
victims
vulnerable populations
women
women and underrepresented
Notes: Some terms listed with a plus sign represent combinations of words that, when used together, acknowledge transgender people, which is not in keeping with the current federal government’s position that there are only two, immutable sexes. Any term collected above was included on at least one agency’s list, which does not necessarily imply that other agencies are also discouraged from using it.
The list is the functional equivalent of a lobotomy. Apparently the Federal Government wants us to forget that there are females, advocates, bias, climate science, disabilities, environmental quality, equal opportunity, equality, ethnicity, females, feminism, genders, hate speech, immigrants, inequity, injustice, mental health, Native Americans, oppression, pollution, pronouns, prostitutes, prejudice, privilege, race, sex, social justice, victims, and women. The Trump Administration does not need Elon Musk–it needs the Red Queen.
In one of the most shameful episodes in diplomatic history, the US announced it is prepared to vote against a resolution in the UN General Assembly condemning Russian aggression against Ukraine. For the last two years, the US has voted in favor of such a resolution, but this year is supporting a watered-down version simply calling for an end to the conflict. Ukraine is going ahead with the stronger resolution which will undoubtedly pass, but the US will be left with the small number of states who have decided that aggression is permissible despite the plain language of the UN Charter. Among the other states that opposed the Ukrainian resolution were Russia, North Korea, Belarus, and Sudan. Astonishing bedfellows in such a dramatically brief period of time.
This decision represents the clearest example of the US repudiation of the world order it helped to create after World War II. That world order was based on rules and norms that reflected the commitment of several states in 1945 to an alternative to the traditional practices of world politics: imperialism and the balance of power. It was never completely successful (and failed most dramatically in 2003 when the US invaded Iraq despite the UN Security Council’s decision not to authorize the use of force against Iraq). But one does not have to believe in the aspirations for a more stable world order to hold that clear aggression across national borders should be readily condemned. The US position on the Ukrainian resolution holds that clear aggression across national borders is acceptable behavior.
There is a second conclusion to the change in US policy toward Ukraine–it represents a significant political victory for Putin that should put to rest all the speculation as to whether Putin has something on Trump. That question is irrelevant. Trump could not be more supportive of Putin and his foreign policy objectives, so whether he is paid to do so or is coerced to do so does not change the outcome. When asked today at his meeting with President Macron of France by a reporter whether he thought Putin was a dictator (a word Trump regularly uses to describe Ukrainian President Zelensky), Trump declined to use the word. I remember the Presidential election of 1976 when President Ford asserted that the East European states under Soviet control were “free”: “There is no Soviet domination of Eastern Europe, and there never will be under a Ford administration.” The firestorm that followed effectively doomed Ford in the election. Today, however, few in the Republican Party were willing to condemn Trump for his sugarcoating of Putin.
In 1917, US President Wilson asked the US Congress to declare war against Germany. There were many incidents that provoked Wilson to seek the declaration. His Presidential Campaign of 1916 was adamantly opposed to US participation in the war that had raged in Europe since August 1914. But Wilson’s justification for this change was more deeply rooted in his belief that wars were initiated by leaders who felt little constraints on their ability to use war for spurious reasons:
“We have no quarrel with the German people. We have no feeling towards them but one of sympathy and friendship. It was not upon their impulse that their government acted in entering this war. It was not with their previous knowledge or approval. It was a war determined upon as wars used to be determined upon in the old, unhappy days when peoples were nowhere consulted by their rulers and wars were provoked and waged in the interest of dynasties or of little groups of ambitious men who were accustomed to use their fellow men as pawns and tools.”
It is not at all clear that Wilson’s diagnosis for the causes of war were accurate but they were based on a long-standing tradition in political thought stimulated by Immanual Kant’s pamphlet, Perpetual Peace, which was published in 1795. Kant’s argument was straightforward. Kant believed that the leaders of a country reaped all the benefits of war, such as the expansion of territory, without paying the real price of war. Ordinary people bear the real costs of war (through taxes, conscription, and destruction of property) and would therefore oppose going to war if they were given an effective voice in making decisions. To Wilson, expanding democracy was the most effective way to secure peace.
The meeting yesterday between leaders of the US and Russia in Saudi Arabia was exactly the type of scenario that both Kant and Wilson found compelling. There were no members of the Ukrainian government, nor were there any representatives of other European states. Moreover, the discussion centered on several issues which were decidedly peripheral to the conflict that has been ongoing for three years. According to the Associated Press:
“In an interview with The Associated Press, Secretary of State Marco Rubio said that the two sides agreed broadly to pursue three goals: to restore staffing at their respective embassies in Washington and Moscow, to create a high-level team to support Ukraine peace talks, and to explore closer relations and economic cooperation.”
Two of these three goals are broad issues that relate exclusively to the US-Russian relationship. Both the US and Russia are more interested in normalizing relations, and Ukraine in that context is nothing more than an impediment. But Ukraine and Europe do not view Ukraine in that context. Their context is that Russia ruthlessly invaded Ukraine with no real provocation and has waged a brutal war against the civilian population in Ukraine. At the press conference in Saudi Arabia, both Secretary of State Rubio and National Security Adviser Waltz gave lip service to the idea that there is a need to involve Ukraine and Europe in the negotiations but there was no indication whatsoever whether Trump was concerned about those issues.
As I indicated in my previous post, Trump has yet to extract any concessions from Putin. Instead, he has already conceded on the two principal issues for Putin: control over wide swathes of Ukrainian territory and a promise that Ukraine would not be allowed to join NATO. These concessions are profound and are on the scale that is usually made by a side that has been routed in war. But Russia has fared dismally in proving its military prowess. The Economist reports:
“Any assessment of Russia’s negotiating position should start with the military situation. Its army has performed dismally. The pace of advance is excruciatingly slow: since last July it has struggled to take the town of Pokrovsk, where current losses are staggering. Most of its gains were in the first weeks of the war. In April 2022, following Russia’s retreat from the north of Ukraine, it controlled 19.6% of Ukrainian territory, and its casualties (dead and wounded) were perhaps 20,000. Today Russia occupies 19.2% and its casualties are 800,000, reckon British sources.”
Trump has declared Ukraine’s unconditional surrender without securing any guarantees that Ukraine’s future sovereignty will be protected, and that condition will only weaken US credibility in the future. Inevitably, those states–not only in Europe but also in Asia, Southeast Asia, Africa, and Latin America–who rely upon US power to keep stability will lose faith in the US and will either resort to self-reliance in defense (most likely, the possession of a nuclear weapon) or will find other protectors (China and Russia are eager to fill a US vacuum).
Trump’s abject surrender to Putin, however, is a greater tragedy. He has seriously damaged US relations with its European allies, and all other states now have legitimate doubts about the integrity of US promises. The world is significantly less safe because of his foolish infatuation with Putin.
President Trump’s comments about Ukraine in the last few days (echoed by the Secretary of Defense, Hegseth, who had, quite ironically, spoke earlier at the Munich Security Conference) spoke volumes about the emerging Trump Doctrine. We have witnessed one of the most inept diplomatic episodes in the history of American foreign policy. The BBC reports:
“The phone call between Putin and Trump lasted nearly an hour-and-a-half, during which the Russian president extended an invitation to visit Moscow, Peskov said.
“Trump also told reporters at the White House that it was unlikely Ukraine would return to its pre-2014 borders but, in response to a question from the BBC, he said ‘some of that land will come back’.
“The president said he agreed with Hegseth, who told a Nato summit earlier on Wednesday that there was no likelihood of Ukraine joining the military alliance.”
With these pronouncements, Trump essentially ended whatever negotiations might ensue. What else is there to offer the Russians? Trump gave away the land the Russians took by force and gave Putin the prize: a promise to keep Ukraine out of NATO. Incredibly, no European state was involved in any of these discussions and President Zelensky was only informed after the fact. The statements brought to my mind the way Churchill and Stalin divided up Eastern Europe after World War II in the Yalta Conference in February 1945. Trump handled the issue in the manner that European states employed in the 19th Century–decisions were made on the basis of what the Great Powers wanted with little or no consideration for the welfare of the citizens most directly involved.
The degree to which Ukraine was ignored is actually quite stunning. The Washington Post reports:
“President Donald Trump’s phone call to Russian President Vladimir Putin has deeply rattled Kyiv and its European partners, intensifying long-held fears that Ukraine could be excluded from peace talks determining its own future and security — as well as that of the rest of the continent.
“Trump, who spoke to Putin on Wednesday and then phoned Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky to inform him of the call, said he and his Russian counterpart will try to meet soon in Saudi Arabia, without the Ukrainian leader. Trump clarified Thursday afternoon that the meeting in Saudi Arabia would involve officials from the United States, Russia and Ukraine. ‘Not with myself or with President Putin, but with top officials,’ Trump told reporters.
“The announcement of the Trump-Putin call, which made no mention of Europe, plays into the fears of European leaders that their defense interests will fall by the wayside if Trump sidelines them in talks with Russia. Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov said Thursday that it was ‘premature’ to discuss a role for Europe in any talks.”
The fiasco will reverberate in all sorts of ways. The credibility of the US has been seriously damaged since Trump ignored all US allies leaving them with the distinct impression that US interests have become brutally narrow. Members of NATO can rightly ask, given Trump’s skepticism of NATO, whether the US will honor its commitments to the alliance in a dispute with Russia. Non-NATO states have witnessed the abject abandonment of a state that has valiantly resisted blatant aggression at considerable cost.
The capitulation of the US brings to mind the decision of British Prime Minister Neville Chamberlain to capitulate to Hitler’s decision to invade Czechslovakia in 1938. Timothy Synder, one of the most astute analysts of European politics today, makes a compelling comparison:
“As American and Russian negotiators converge today in Munich for a major security conference, carrying in their briefcases various plans about Ukraine without Ukraine, the temptation is to recall another meeting in that city. Appeasement of the aggressor seems to be the plan now, as it was with Germany in 1938.
“But the resemblances between that moment and this go deeper, and it worth pausing to consider them. The symmetry between Germany-Czechoslovakia in 1938 and Russia-Ukraine in 2022 is uncanny, and pausing for a moment on the resemblances might help us to take a broader view of today. We are prisoners, now more than ever, of the rumors and disinformation and emotions of the moment. History can give us at least a calmer perspective. And so consider:
“Hitler denied the legitimacy of the Czechoslovak state. As German chancellor, he systematically denied that it had a right to exist. Although its leaders were democratically elected, he claimed that they had no right to rule. Because its people spoke various languages, he claimed that there was no such thing as a body of Czechoslovak citizens. Hitler argued that Czechoslovakia itself was artificial, the result of a historical turning point that never should have happened, the settlement after the First World War. He claimed that the existence of national minority gave him the right to intervene in Czechoslovak politics. In May 1938, he ordered his army to make preparations for a quick strike on Czechoslovakia. He also activiated his agents inside the country. On September 12th Hitler gave a rousing speech to Germans about the entirely fictional extermination of the German minority in Czechoslovakia. We know what comes next: Britain and France, together with Germany and Italy, decided in Munich on September 30th that Czechoslovakia should cede crucial border territories to Germany. These were the most defensible parts of the country. Czechoslovakia’s leaders, although they were not consulted, chose to accept the partition of their country.”
The Munich analogy is dangerous, since it is often used to justify actions whenever there seems to be a breach of international norms. The most common mistake is to regard initial acts of aggression as part of a larger plan to dominate other states. The example was often invoked in the Vietnam War: “We should resist North Vietnamese agression in Southeast Asia or we will be fighting them in San Francisco”.
“It was not until the advent of the Johnson administration, however, that the Munich analogy came into its own. President Lyndon B. Johnson and his secretary of state, Dean Rusk, considered Munich to be the most important historical lesson of their time. Remembering Munich, they saw weakness overseas as leading to World War III. Johnson explained, “Everything I knew about history told me that if I got out of Vietnam and let Ho Chi Minh run through the streets of Saigon, then I’d be doing exactly what Chamberlain did in World War II. I’d be giving a big fat reward to aggression.” Rusk was equally attuned to the lessons of the 1930s, which he described as the realization that “aggression must be dealt with wherever it occurs and no matter what mask it may wear…. The rearmament of the Rhineland was regarded as regrettable but not worth a shooting war. Yet after that came Austria, and after Austria came Czechoslovakia. Then Poland. Then the Second World War.”
“This belief in the applicability of the Munich analogy to his situation led Johnson to increase troop levels, first to 300,000 and then to 500,000 by 1968. At a National Security Council meeting in July 1965 to discuss an increase in troops, an exchange occurred between Undersecretary of State George Ball, who was opposed to committing more men, and the U.S. ambassador to Vietnam, Henry Cabot Lodge. Lodge rebutted Ball’s arguments, explaining that ‘I feel there is a greater threat to start World War III if we don’t go in. Can’t we see the similarity to our own indolence at Munich?’ No one present at the meeting questioned this statement. Even McGeorge Bundy, the national security adviser who often criticized others for using inaccurate analogies, did not comment. The administration’s policymakers were convinced of the appropriateness of the analogy to their own situation in Vietnam, and often reminded one another of this fact. Even former president Eisenhower resorted to the analogy in advising Johnson in 1965. He warned the president not to be convinced by Britain’s arguments for negotiation. Prime Minister Harold Wilson, he said, ‘has not had experience with this kind of problem. We, however, have learned that Munichs win nothing.'”
The Munich analogy was inappropriate in Vietnam because there was no evidence that North Vietnam was interested in taking over the world. But there is conisderable evidence that Putin does have larger global ambitions, not the least of which is the restoration of the empire of the Soviet Union. For this reason, the Baltic states and Poland desperately wanted to join NATO after the collapse of the Soviet Union. Indeed, NATO expanded, not because the US wanted to include the East European countries, but because those states feared the resurgence of the Russian Empire, a point that became even more persuasive after the Russian invasion of Ukraine in 2014.
The incompetence of the Trump foreign policy with respect to Ukraine will haunt the US as long as Trump is in power. We will see how China regards Trump on the matter of Taiwan or on the relations between North and South Korea. In the absence of US support for countries resisting aggression, many states will look for other allies or perhaps even to develop their own nuclear weapons. Fortune assesses the feelings of US allies:
“The track Trump is taking also has rocked Europe, much as his dismissive comments about France and Germany did during his first term.
‘French Deputy Foreign Minister Benjamin Haddad described Europe as being at a turning point, with the ground shifting rapidly under its feet, and said Europe must wean itself off its reliance on the United States for its security. He warned that handing a victory to Russia in Ukraine could have repercussions in Asia, too.
“’I think we’re not sufficiently grasping the extent to which our world is changing. Both our competitors and our allies are busy accelerating,’ Haddad told broadcaster France Info on Thursday.”
Trump is not pursuing an “America First” policy; rather, he is pursuing a policy of “America Alone”.
We are witnessing a very strange event in political history. Under the pretext of eliminating “waste, fraud, and abuse”, the Trump Administration is attempting to deconstruct most parts of the government, leaving the Executive Branch the sole repository of power in the US. The strategy is to completely erase any institutional support for the process of checks and balances that the Constitution requires to work properly.
The maneuver clearly intends to reduce the power of the Congress and the Courts. I suspect that the courts will try to preserve their power, but courts lack enforcement powers. Trump’s behavior in courts during 2020-24 suggests that he is more than willing to exploit that weakness through delay and manipulation of the legal process. If push comes to shove in the courts, it is only the Congress that can levy penalties to induce changed behavior.
Which raises an interesting question: why are Republican Congresspeople and Senators willing to give away their principal authority which is to allocate money to keep the government going? It is rare to witness the voluntary forfeiture of power. The immediate answer to this question is that these Republicans fear the power of Trump to oust them through primaries. But this begs the question. If the Federal government is eviscerated, then many of the constituents of these Congresspeople will suffer badly and are likely to take out their anger in an election. This outcome is highly probably if the cuts to the Federal government diminish the benefits of Medicare, Medicaid, Social Security, and other social programs. Why is the fear of Trump greater than the fear of angry voters?
I will put my money on the people if the cuts happen quickly, before Trump can defang Federal enforcement of the Constitution. There is a reason Trump went after USAID first–most Americans have little idea of what USAID does. But going after USAID will not fund the tax cuts that the President wants–it is a small amount of money relative to the overall budget.. The budget deal being contemplated by the Republican caucus must go through a process called reconciliation which has strict rules permitting a budget to pass with only 51 votes and not the 60 votes in a Senate with a filibuster rule. Once the American people feel the pain of what it means to lose the Federal government, they may have second thoughts about supporting Trump and those in the Congress who support him.
We will have to see. The budget must be submitted by 14 March and there are still large divisions within the Republican Party about how the budget should be structured. The deficit hawks in the House of Representatives will demand spending cuts that would require cuts in the most important programs affecting the well-being of Americans, such as Social Security and Medicaid. A month is not enough time to work out these fundamental disagreements since the main members of the Freedom Caucus live in gerrymandered districts and have little to fear from Trump’s threats of being primaried. We will see how this works out.
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