The United States has announced new rules governing the role of women in combat. The rules are not completely open-ended–some combat roles are still off limits. Some countries offer women greater combat opportunities, which tend to be very important in determining promotions in the military. Others are much more restrictive than the US. As the world’s militaries become more technological and specialized, it will be interesting to see how the roles of women change.
The covert war between Israel and Iran continues as Iran targets Israeli diplomats abroad. We can be certain that there will be a response to these attacks. Most likely, the response will be dramatic.
Dani Rodrik, an economist at Harvard, has written a fascinating essay on the future of the nation-state in an era of globalization. I have been reading on this issue since my undergraduate days in 1968–the outcome is less clear now than it was then.
The quiz in American foreign policy on 15 February will be on the blog articles from 9-13 February, and all of the readings on the syllabus for 13 February.
Violence has erupted in Athens and other major Greek cities. We still don’t have good reports yet about the extent of the rioting, but it appears as if the violence is widespread. It is directed toward the Greek Parliament which must approve the terms of the debt agreement with major bondholders. The terms are onerous on ordinary Greek citizens, and it is difficult to see how economic growth can return to Greece under the terms of the Agreement. The Parliament must decide whether it stands with the Greek people or with the bondholders.
China is getting ready for a leadership transition. Xi Jinping is slated to become the next leader of China and he is introducing himself to world leaders. All political transitions are difficult, but this year will be quite tumultuous: China, Russia, the US, and France all will have national elections. One should expect a high degree of unpredictability in the global system as these changes get closer.
Another article on an Israeli attack on Iran, this time by Michael Hirsh of the National Journal. The steady drumbeat is getting harder to ignore, but the rationale for the attack is getting less compelling the more we learn about the complexities of the attack.
Reading the European newspapers, one can’t help but feel that the recent Greek negotiations signaled a transition into a genuinely new phase of the economic crisis. Helena Smith, a reporter who has covered Athens for more than 20 years as a reporter, wrote a column on how the mood seems to have changed.
The violence in Syria has spilled over into neighboring Lebanon. Fighting broke out between the Sunni-based populations sympathetic to the forces opposed to Syrian President Assad and the Allawite/Shia minorities supporting President Assad. This cleavage is part of the larger balance of power game being pursued by the Iranians in the region. Spreading violence in Lebanon will only intensify security fears in Israel.
Stephen Walt has a great post on the Iranian nuclear issue. Walt is a full-blooded realist, and his perspective is sharp and crystal-clear.
The tortuous negotiations on the Greek debt reached some sort of resolution today, with promises being made by the Greek government for cuts in social spending that will cripple further the Greek economy. It seems likely (right now) that these cuts will be approved by Parliament; it also seems highly likely that the Greek economy will go into a deep tailspin because of them. Protests in Greece are continuing, but it is difficult to tell what effects they might have.
There are no changes to report in the situation in Syria. The violence has now spread to the city of Aleppo, and the estimates are that more than 6,000 Syrians have been killed in the anti-government protests. It is ironic that the the lack of action is partially due to Russian and Chinese anger over the previous UN intervention in Libya. The major obstacle, however, remains the sheer difficulty of any external aid actually making the situation better.
A long-standing dispute between Great Britain and Argentina over the status of the Falklands/Malvinas Islands has flared up again. Predictably, the dispute has arisen becuase of a growing belief that there is oil in the region. The Falklands used to be a coaling station in the British Empire, but the Argentinians claim them as their territory (the Malvinas). A war was once fought between the two countries, and it appears as if hostilities may arise again.
The protests in Tibet have led Chinese authorities to seal off certain areas from the foreign press. These restrictions will certainly have a short-term effect, but they will likely be evaded over time. But the restrictions suggest how seriously the Beijing government takes the protests. Most likely, the next reports we hear will be of increasingly more organized, less individual protests than self-immolation.
It appears as if another agreement has been reached on the Greek debt crisis. It is being hailed as the last step, but I wouldn’t believe it if I were you. The terms are incredibly onerous on the Greek people and I would be surprised if it lasts. Even if the terms hold, they are so sever that economic growth will not return to Greece anytime soon which makes it highly unlikely that Greece will be able to make future debt repayments. I honestly cannot explain the policies being demanded of Greece by the European Central Bank and the IMF. No one can seriously believe that the Greeks can grow themselves out of this problem.
The China Economic Review (published in Hong Kong) is reporting that three more Tibetans self-immolated in protest against the Beijing government’s policies in Tibet. The China Times, however, is denying these reports. If true, these acts would bring the total number of self-immolations in recent weeks to around 19–a very substantial level of protest. The Beijing government is increasingly concerned as the fifth-year anniversary of the most recent outbreak of violence in Tibet gets closer as March approaches. The Arab Spring continues unabated.
National Geographic has a very informative article on the strategic significance of the Strait of Hormuz.
The quiz on Wednesday, 8 February, in American foreign policy will be on the blog articles from 2-6 February, the Ellis, Huntington, and Woodward readings, and the primary sources: Cherokee Nation v. the State of Georgia, Winthrop, and the Declaration of Independence.
For those who wish a completely different perspective on the Iranian nuclear weapons issue, Glenn Greenwald of Salon offers a benign view. The Russian press also notes the growing Iranian military presence as a response to its growing responsibilities in the region. Finally, Sri Lanka is offered a way to work around the US sanctions on Iranian oil, by none other than the US. So while we’re hearing a loud and united front in the press against Iran, there are multiple layers of activity that belie any sort of consensus.
The talks between Greece and its lenders have been “paused.” Greece must “roll over” much of its debt by 20 March (it must issue new bonds to cover the expiration of old bonds–the difference in interest rates between the old and the new bonds is a critical determinant of how risky investors regard Greek bonds). In order to do so in an orderly fashion, it needs to come to an agreement about how much the old bonds are worth. The investors are demanding very severe austerity measures that Greek politicians are reluctant to concede. I suspect that we’ll see some violence in the streets of Athens this week.
My apologies for not posting yesterday. My cold has settled down into my chest and I’ve spent most of yesterday and today coughing. I think I’m getting better, but it’s very hard to tell.
The Russians and the Chinese vetoed the latest Security Council resolution condemning the violence in Syria. The vetoes are pretty straightforward–neither the Russians nor the Chinese like the idea of interference in the internal affairs of a state. Such principled stands are of little comfort to the many thousands who have died in the rioting. On the other hand, I cannot even imagine how the Security Council could intervene to stop the violence. It seems as if only the departure of Assad will bring an end to the protests. Perhaps someone in Assad’s inner circle will defect and open a door.
The protests in Russia also continued despite sub-minus temperatures. Putin is unlikely to be moved by these protests, but they will erode his authority over time. One should suspect that there will be a tightening of governmental control soon–the Russian government is going to be flush with money as the cold temperatures in Europe riase the prices for oil and gas exported by Russia to Europe.
The pressures on Iran continue to mount, but it is hard to see how the sanctions can be enforced when so many countries are dependent on Iranian oil. India is a case in point–it wishes to support the alliance against Iran, but does not really have many alternatives to Iranian oil. Meanwhile, the rhetorical war between Iran and Israel continues to heat up.
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