World Politics News   Articles for World Politics Course

One of the consequences of the debt crisis in the eurozone is that as some nations are forced to undergo austerity programs to reduce wages, other nations within the some (especially Germany) enjoy a competitive advantage.  The discrepancy occurs because the common currency, the euro, weakens as growth slows in the countries undergoing austerity–in effect, the euro devalues.  This means that the exports of the stronger countries are more attractive to countries outside the eurozone leading to even stronger economies.  The growing discrepancy between the weak euro countries and the strong euro countries will inevitably lead to political friction.  We’ll see if this friction has any effect on the cohesion of the EU as a whole.

The Oil Drum is a fascinating blog on energy related issues, and its most recent post is a fascinating summary of global energy consumption over the last century.  It is a very detailed post, so I won’t be asking any questions about it on the weekly quiz in American foreign policy.  But for those who wish to see how the use and sources of energy have changed throughout the period of high industrialization, the post is incredibly revealing.  The only possible conclusion is that the historical trends are clearly unsustainable–something has got to change.

The question of how income inequality affects economic growth is perhaps one of the most pressing questions facing the world at this moment.  Much of the historical evidence on income inequality suggests that it often leads to economic decline.  There is evidence that this outcome is increasingly likely in the developed world.

First, I need to apologize to the students in American foreign policy.  I had told you that I was going to ask questions on the quiz from 13 February, but the quiz actually had questions from another date on the syllabus.  This was a serious mistake on my part since I know that there is a strategy to studying, and I sabotaged that strategy.  I haven’t decided how to atone for my sins, but I will.  Perhaps I will  drop the grades for the quiz on 15 February.  Maybe I will count them only if the scores are higher than any student’s overall average without them.  I am a creative person, so somehow I will make it  up to you.  In the meantime, please accept my apologies.

How bad is it in Greece?  Really bad and getting worse.  I am beginning to think that the EU wants the Greeks to leave the Union.

The UN is scrambling to try to prove its relevance to the deteriorating situation in Syria.  There seems to some movement in the Russian position, but it is not enough yet to make a difference.  But the Russians are clearly feeling the heat of international public opinion.  Perversely, the instability in the Middle East has led to large economic benefits to Russia–oil price increases are bolstering the Russian economy.

Here’s an insider’s view of what is happening in Greece.  It is quite different from the media’s point of view.

“A personal journey to the heart of Greece’s darkness” Financial Times 15 February 2012

A new diplomatic tool has been added to world politics–rewriting the maps while a revolution is going on.  The Syrian opposition has been changing the names of places in Syria that refer to Assad’s regime on Google Maps.  The Syrians have protested to the United Nations, but to no avail.  I don’t think there are many historical precedents for such activities (although changes AFTER a revolution are rife).  I truly admire the creativity of the protesters.

The Egyptian revolution continues to confound.  This article from the Los Angeles Times is depressing since it documents a move away from gender equality in the revolution.  It is probably too early to tell whether this is a decisive setback or just a temporary one.

Russell Shorto has a very long article in the New York Times on the effects of the debt crisis on Greek life.  It is a very long article so I will not ask any quiz questions on it, but it captures all the complexity of this tragedy in motion.  A short snippet:

“By many indicators, Greece is devolving into something unprecedented in modern Western experience. A quarter of all Greek companies have gone out of business since 2009, and half of all small businesses in the country say they are unable to meet payroll. The suicide rate increased by 40 percent in the first half of 2011. A barter economy has sprung up, as people try to work around a broken financial system. Nearly half the population under 25 is unemployed. Last September, organizers of a government-sponsored seminar on emigrating to Australia, an event that drew 42 people a year earlier, were overwhelmed when 12,000 people signed up. Greek bankers told me that people had taken about one-third of their money out of their accounts; many, it seems, were keeping what savings they had under their beds or buried in their backyards. One banker, part of whose job these days is persuading people to keep their money in the bank, said to me, “Who would trust a Greek bank?””

The virtue of the article is that it puts the many human faces on the crisis.

The United States has announced new rules governing the role of women in combat.  The rules are not completely open-ended–some combat roles are still off limits.  Some countries offer women greater combat opportunities, which tend to be very important in determining promotions in the military.  Others are much more restrictive than the US.  As the world’s militaries become more technological and specialized, it will be interesting to see how the roles of women change.

The covert war between Israel and Iran continues as Iran targets Israeli diplomats abroad.  We can be certain that there will be a response to these attacks.  Most likely, the response will be dramatic.

Dani Rodrik, an economist at Harvard, has written a fascinating essay on the future of the nation-state in an era of globalization.  I have been reading on this issue since my undergraduate days in 1968–the outcome is less clear now than it was then.

The quiz in American foreign policy on 15 February will be on the blog articles from 9-13 February, and all of the readings on the syllabus for 13 February.

Violence has erupted in Athens and other major Greek cities.  We still don’t have good reports yet about the extent of the rioting, but it appears as if the violence is widespread.  It is directed toward the Greek Parliament which must approve the terms of the debt agreement with major bondholders.  The terms are onerous on ordinary Greek citizens, and it is difficult to see how economic growth can return to Greece under the terms of the Agreement.   The Parliament must decide whether it stands with the Greek people or with the bondholders.

China is getting ready for a leadership transition.  Xi Jinping is slated to become the next leader of China and he is introducing himself to world leaders.  All political transitions are difficult, but this year will be quite tumultuous: China, Russia, the US, and France all will have national elections.  One should expect a high degree of unpredictability in the global system as these changes get closer.

Another article on an Israeli attack on Iran, this time by Michael Hirsh of the National Journal.  The steady drumbeat is getting harder to ignore, but the rationale for the attack is getting less compelling the more we learn about the complexities of the attack.

Reading the European newspapers, one can’t help but feel that the recent Greek negotiations signaled a transition into a genuinely new phase of the economic crisis.  Helena Smith, a reporter who has covered Athens for more than 20 years as a reporter, wrote a column on how the mood seems to have changed.

The violence in Syria has spilled over into neighboring Lebanon.  Fighting broke out between the Sunni-based populations sympathetic to the forces opposed to Syrian President Assad and the Allawite/Shia minorities supporting President Assad.  This cleavage is part of the larger balance of power game being pursued by the Iranians in the region.  Spreading violence in Lebanon will only intensify security fears in Israel.

Stephen Walt has a great post on the Iranian nuclear issue.  Walt is a full-blooded realist, and his perspective is sharp and crystal-clear.

The tortuous negotiations on the Greek debt reached some sort of resolution today, with promises being made by the Greek government for cuts in social spending that will cripple further the Greek economy.  It seems likely (right now) that these cuts will be approved by Parliament; it also seems highly likely that the Greek economy will go into a deep tailspin because of them.   Protests in Greece are continuing, but it is difficult to tell what effects they might have.

There are no changes to report in the situation in Syria.  The violence has now spread to the city of Aleppo, and the estimates are that more than 6,000 Syrians have been killed in the anti-government protests.  It is ironic that the the lack of action is partially due to Russian and Chinese anger over the previous UN intervention in Libya.  The major obstacle, however, remains the sheer difficulty of any external aid actually making the situation better.

A long-standing dispute between Great Britain and Argentina over the status of the Falklands/Malvinas Islands has flared up again.  Predictably, the dispute has arisen becuase of a growing belief that there is oil in the region.  The Falklands used to be a coaling station in the British Empire, but the Argentinians claim them as their territory (the Malvinas).  A war was once fought between the two countries, and it appears as if hostilities may arise again.