World Politics News   Articles for World Politics Course

Protests began in Spain last May, and over 100,000 people protested against the austerity program today.  It is somewhat remarkable that the protests remain as large as they are after a year–the government’s policies have only worsened over the year, and the protests seem to have had little effect.  The Spanish economy is one of the slowest in the EU, and there are few signs of anything picking up.  The economy has clearly gone below stall speed, and it is difficult to see how Spain can pay back its debts.

The Palestinian hunger strike continues, and the US media continues to pay little attention.  The non-violent action is gathering strength in the Occupied Territories and one would think that its scope and persistence would gain more widespread coverage.  The commitment of the protesters is remarkable, but the practice of administrative detention by any government (including the United States government) is indefensible.

One manifestation of popular discontent with traditional politics–the source of the Arab Spring, the Occupy Movement, the protests in Russia and China–is the proliferation of new, smaller political parties.  In Greece we saw the emergence of the Radical Left Coalition (Syriza) and Golden Dawn, a hard right party.  In Germany we have witnessed the emergence of the Pirate Party, which began in Sweden but is now close to becoming a force in German politics.  Angela Merkel’s political position grows increasingly precarious.

The nuclear talks with Iran are scheduled to continue soon, and there appears to be a new mood emerging in Tehran.  Perhaps it represents a split between the Supreme Leader and Ahmadinejad.  Or it could be the result of the pressure of the financial sanctions.  I remain pessimistic about the possible outcome of these discussions, but it does appear as if an imminent attack on Iran is highly unlikely at the time.

There are some unusual correlations in the study of politics, and the Los Angeles Times reports a curious one: the relationship between art prices and income inequality.  The correlation is not surprising, but I did not suspect that it would be so strong.   A team of economists at the Yale School of Management found that a “one percentage point increase in the share of total income earned by the top 0.1% triggers an increase in art prices of about 14 percent.”   The saddest part of this understanding is that the sale of art very rarely employs many people, least of all the artist who is usually dead when the sale is made.

In his “Eighteenth Brumaire of Louis Bonaparte,” Karl Marx observed that Hegel pointed out that history repeats itself.  Marx developed the point further: history does repeat itself, but “the first time as tragedy, the second time as farce.”  Marx certainly was on target describing the behavior of big banks in the US.  One would think that the near-collapse of the world financial system (and the demise of two major banks, Lehman Brothers and Bear Stearns) in 2008 would make big banks less likely to take risks.  Today, however, we learned that JP Morgan lost nearly $2 billion on trades that were extremely risky.  Let’s hope that these losses do not trigger a chain reaction in world markets.

The Great Recession precipitated by the financial crisis of 2007-08 has many immediate causes, but the most important underlying cause is the income inequality that has been increasing since the 1970s.  Declining relative incomes forced many to increase their indebtedness, and the low cost of money forced the moneylenders (banks) to find riskier investments to maintain their profit levels.  We are just beginning to comprehend how serious this underlying problem is, and solutions are not obvious.  But as governments continue to increase their austerity programs, the underlying problem of income inequality is only going to get worse.

The UN monitors in Syria have themselves come under attack.  The fighting seems to have abated somewhat, but many suspect that the opposition to Assad is running out of weaponry.  That situation will not persist as there are many states who are willing to give them weapons (as Assad is not short of suppliers such as Iran and Russia).  The UN will have to figure out to respond to this attack or risk losing legitimacy in the eyes of many.

China has started drilling near the Paracel Islands in the South China Sea.  This territory is highly disputed and the move is sure to elicit a response by Vietnam and Taiwan.  There have been limited naval battles in the region before, but the actual act of drilling is a clear claim to territory.  If that claim is not disputed, then China will be the owner of that territory.

The Radical Left Coalition in the Greek Parliament has three days to form a coalition government since the two leading vote-getting parties (New Democracy and PASOK) were unable to do so within their allotted three days.  Here is the five point program around which Syriza wishes to form a coalition:

* The immediate cancellation of all impending measures that will impoverish Greeks further, such as cuts to pensions and salaries.

* The immediate cancellation of all impending measures that undermine fundamental workers’ rights, such as the abolition of collective labor agreements.

* The immediate abolition of a law granting MPs immunity from prosecution, reform of the electoral law and a general overhaul of the political system.

* An investigation into Greek banks, and the immediate publication of the audit performed on the Greek banking sector by BlackRock.

* The setting up of an international auditing committee to investigate the causes of Greece’s public deficit, with a moratorium on all debt servicing until the findings of the audit are published.

If successful, the acceptance of thee conditions would mean the end of bail-out money from the Eu and the IMF.  Subsequently, Greece would leave the Eurozone.

A dramatic shift in Israeli politics has taken place as Prime Minister Netanyahu has invited the more moderate Kadima party into his coalition.  The move allows Netanyahu’s government to survive for a longer period of time (without the change, an election would have taken place in September).  But Kadima will likely ease some of the pressure for hard-line policies in the West Bank and against Iran.  There has been little reaction from Washington as of now.

Barely a day after the French and Greek elections, Germany rejected any ideas of renegotiating the fiscal pact governing budget deficits in the EU.  Angela Merkel has signaled her seriousness about austerity, but the cost to the EU could be great.  The only possible interpretation to the elections was that the publics involved believe that austerity is not the right path.  We’ll have to see whether Germany’s position is open to interpretation or some degree of flexibility.

Violence in Egypt is affecting the outcome of the upcoming elections, with voters seemingly more willing to support the military in the face of continues unrest.  The elections are still far off, so it’s impossible to predict the final outcome.  But the Islamist parties are becoming increasingly unpopular.

Vladimir Putin became Russian President for the third time as protests against his election continue.  His position is weaker than in his previous terms, but he seems quite willing to enforce his rule ruthlessly.  If oil prices continue to weaken in the face of the economic slowdown in the world, his positions may become even more precarious. however.

The European election results are in.  In France, the Socialist candidate, Hollande, defeated the incumbent Sarkozy.  Sarkozy’s defeat is not unexpected–any sitting President facing the economic choices France faces would have a hard time winning.  President Hollande will have a very difficult time establishing the necessary relationship with Chancellor Merkel of Germany.  There will be rough times for the EU.  In Greece, the results were inconclusive suggesting that another election will have to be held in a few months.  Not surprisingly, the conservative New Democracy part, led by Antonis Samaras, won the largest share of the votes.  But the Socialist left party, PASOK, ended up in third place, edged out by the Radical Left Coalition (Syriza).  Most depressing, Golden Dawn, the far right party, got enough votes to enter Parliament for the first time.  The EU, the ECB, and the IMF will have a hard time figuring out how to deal with the new government.

Warfare is always evolving (unfortunately), and the newest form of warfare is cyberwarfare.  There is a cyberattack that is currently being waged against US natural gas pipelines.  It has been going on for some time, but the US has decided to make a very public statement about this attack (a very unusual response–typically the response is dead silence and denial).  We will be making guesses about who is responpsible for the attack for some time.  I suspect, however, that we will find out eventually since the matter has been made public.

One of my college roommates has written a short essay on the public reaction to the photographs of American soldiers apparently celebrating over the bodies of dead insurgents in Afghanistan.  Rod’s son is currently serving in the Marine Corps in Afghanistan and I cannot seriously make the claim that this is a disinterested essay.  But it is a point of view that needs to be addressed.  Rod and I have disagreed often (the best friendships are not based upon total agreement), and I am not yet sure that I can agree with this essay since I have also had discussions with his son.  I can say, however, that his son’s greatest passion is protecting a school that his unit built in Afghanistan.

The Palestinian hunger strike continues, and several participants are in serious jeopardy.  We don’t know exactly how many participant there are in this act of non-violent resistance and I am struck by how little attention these activities have received.  But the demands of the hunger strikers are not extreme: they are protesting their indefinite detention without charges or trials.  The commitment of some of the protesters (66 days without food) is extraordinary.

Violent protests have broken out again in Egypt as citizens express their dissatisfaction with the slow pace of change.  The configuration of power is difficult to interpret, with fingers being points at the military, the Salafists, and the moderate liberals.  It is likely that the violence will continue as debates continue over the shape of the new state in Egypt.

Chen Guangcheng may be allowed to study in the US.  His flight to the US Embassy in China rattled US-Chinese relations and both sides have lost face in the standoff.  The US looked weak as it fumbled for a proper course of action when Chen arrived at the Embassy, and China’s commitment to human rights looked hollow as one of its most prominent dissidents appeared to have sought asylum.  The picture, of course, was significantly more complicated, but a compromise appears to have been reached.  The timing of Chen’s exit from China (presumably with his family) will allow us to assess which side seems to have more leverage.

France is getting ready for its Presidential election on Sunday.  The Economist gives its prediction for the outcome–let’s see how accurate it is.

The large oil companies are having a banner year:  supplies are tight and prices are high (although they are beginning to come down).  The large, fully-integrated companies (which means they explore, produce, refine, and market) always do well since each stage of these operations offers an opportunity for profit.  The rest of us, however, are not as fortunate, since we just concume the oil at the end of the cycle.

Chen Guangcheng has left the American Embassy, and will remain in China.  The human rights activist apparently wanted to leave China but could not do so on acceptable terms.  It remains to be seen whether the Americans were able to get firm assurances from the Chinese government about his future treatment, but the initial reports are that he will be well-treated.  We will wait to see how the US-China human rights talks go.