North Korea has responded quite negatively to the sanctions imposed on the regime after its third nuclear test. The sanctions are quite severe, but unlikely to change North Korean behavior. In response, the North Koreans said that it would scrap the armistice with South Korea and was prepared to launch a pre-emptive nuclear strike against the United States. The rhetoric was unusually strong, but probably does not signal any clear intention by North Korea to actually initiate armed conflict. As always, we will have to see how the Chinese react to this rhetoric.
Professor Stephen Walt, one of the most perceptive analysts of world politics alive today, has written a very good short essay on the 10 year anniversary of the US invasion of Iraq. His analysis is firmly rooted in a realist framework, and is testimony to the continued relevance of that framework to contemporary politics.
James Fallows has posted some environmental readings from China, pointing out how dangerous the pollution levels in China actually are. One should view these data from a global perspective: the problems that the Chinese people face from environmental degradation will be faced eventually by everyone in the world–the pollution will not remain in China. It is in everyone’s interest to help China reduce its pollution.
The President of Venezuela, Hugo Chavez, has died. During his three terms as President (although, technically he was never inaugurated after his last electoral victory), he was an outspoken opponent of the United States and its role in world affairs. He had the support of a large part of the Venezuelan population due to his very deliberate attempts to redistribute the country’s oil wealth to poorer sectors. But he was vilified by those who felt that his economic policies were undermining the productivity of the economy and that his politics were distinctly non-democratic. His legacy will be debated for a very long time. Here is a You Tube video of Chavez’s speech to the United Nations in 2006 when he attacked President George W. Bush, calling him, “the devil.”
North Korea has threatened to end the cease-fire with South Korea signed at the end of the Korean War in 1953 (the two sides have never signed a peace treaty officially ending the war). The threat was made in response to a new round of sanctions against the North Korean nuclear program and the scheduled military exercises between South Korea and the United States. The key player in this most recent round of threats and counterthreats is China which has officially signaled that it is willing to entertain a new round of sanctions. Nonetheless, we don’t have a good sense of how far the Chinese are willing to push their ally.
A number of questions have been raised about the recent Presidential election in Kenya and those questions are leading many to question the overall legitimacy of the election. Such doubts could inspire some sectors of the Kenyan population to protest the presumed outcome of the election which at this time seems to favor the election of Uhuru Kenyatta. We will have to see if there are violent protests as a result.
For those of you who have a specific interest in strategic matters, the recent report of the US Defense Science Defense Board on the susceptibility of the US to cyber warfare is extraordinarily blunt. It raises the issue of “existential cyber attack,” a term I have not seen before. It basically refers to an attack that brings the US economy to a complete stop. Not recommended reading for those who wish a good night’s sleep.
Income inequality is a major consequence of globalization and one of the most aspects of the process. Here’s a great video that outlines the issue of income inequality in the US.
Voting was very heavy in Kenya, and the early returns give the lead to Uhuru Kenyatta. We won’t know the official results for a while, but there were pockets of violence during the election, but nothing like the violence of 2007. The heavy turnout was a very encouraging sign since that suggests that most voters were not deterred from voting because of fear. If these early reports prove to be accurate, then the election will be a stunning success for the people of Kenya.
One of the more disturbing paradoxes to emerge from the process of economic globalization over the last forty years is the rather dramatic increase in the profitability of most corporations and the declining share of income to workers. The Atlantic has published a number of graphs that demonstrate this paradox, and it seems clear that economic success is relying less and less on the activity of workers. How long this dichotomy can persist is anyone’s guess: at some point profits will depend on consumers, and if there are no workers, then there won’t be any consumers.
One of the dilemmas for Israel in its occupation of the West bank is how to balance its security concerns with its commitment to democratic values (in much the same way, the US faces similar conundrums with respect to its Patriot Act). Apparently, the Israeli bus lines are going to introduce “Palestinian only” buses from the West Bank into Israel in an attempt to separate Palestinians from Israeli settlers in the West Bank. One can imagine what would happen in the US if it tried to re-introduce segregated buses into its transportation network.
There have been more attacks against Pakistan’s Shia population: two bomb blasts in Karachi. The Pakistani government has made little progress in protecting the Shia population against attacks from the Sunni majority. The pace of these attacks seems to be accelerating.
Gavin Hewitt, the European Editor for the BBC, has written a piece about how the economic situation is affecting the European polity. His prognosis is that Europe has about two years before the austerity policies rip the Union apart. One should hope that the economies of Europe pick up sustainability soon, or most of Europe will blame the Germans for the demise of the Union.
Hundreds of thousands of Portuguese have protested the austerity programs being pursued in their country. Unemployment in the country is not as high as in Spain or Greece, but the economic slowdown has been quite dramatic. The mounting protests against austerity across Europe suggest that the policies will have to be modified at some point before the citizenry lose hope.
Since 2007-08, the international economic system has been roiled by all sorts of challenges, from protectionist pressures, to currency wars, to threats of sovereign debt default. Some are questioning whether it is time to redesign and restructure the Bretton Woods System that has governed the global economy since 1945. Such a change is probably necessary, but until China and the US reach some sort of an understanding on how to resolve their economic difference, an agreement on a new system is unlikely.
We’re watching Kenya as it prepares to vote for a new President on Monday. One of the candidates, Uhuru Kenyatta, has been indicted by the International Criminal Court for his part in fomenting the violence that plagued the last election in 2007. There are many election observers in the country, attempting to forestall a repeat of the violence. But violent protests may be difficult to avoid.
The unemployment rate in the 17 country eurozone went up to 11.9%, the highest level every recorded. The different levels in each country ranged from 5% in Austria to 27% in Greece. The strains on the euro because of this slowdown are quite high, although we have no idea what the breaking point of the populations might be.
Protests in Bangladesh have been going in recent days due to the death sentence handed down on vice president Delwar Hossain Sayedee, 73, who was convicted for war crimescommitted during the 1971 independence war. He is the third person to be convicted on crimes related to the independence movement that led to the creation of Bangladesh after it separated from Pakistan. The situation is highly volatile and is likely to continue for some time.
The violence in eastern Congo is accelerating as the rebel factions turn on each other and civilians have no where to turn. Nearly 750,000 people have become refugees since January as the violence as spiraled out of control, and the innocents do not know whom to trust.
The recent unrest in the Occupied Territories has led many analysts to speculate about whether the Palestinians have reached a tipping point into a more organized protest against the occupation. There have been two previous uprisings (Intifadeh) which led to great violence within the Occupied Territories. Now, some are asking whether we are poised on the brink of a third Intifadeh. Much will depend on whether the Israelis can make some genuine concessions on the issue of the treatment of prisoners, but, under these circumstances, even small events can have catastrophic results.
We’re still digesting the results of the Italian election, and the more we find out, the worse it seems for the European economy (and, subsequently, the global economy). The Atlantic ran a good piece that summarizes what we think we know so far about how the politics of the election will play out: the quick conclusion is that greater instability will aggravate the nervousness about the stability of the euro.
The violence in the Democratic Republic of Congo has been sporadic of late as the various groups have tried to broker a cease-fire. But the rebel group M23 has been riven by internal dissent, and the violence has flared up again. The outside world seems completely impotent in the face of some of the most horrific violence in the world today.
The US is planning to announce that it will be sending food and medical supplies to the Syrian rebels. The aid, however, does not include military aid. The debate within the Obama Administration has apparently been fierce, and the Syrian rebels do not appear to be particularly moved by the offer. The US is clearly playing a very low profile game, trying to keep a voice in the final settlement, but not wishing to appear as if it had decisively altered the outcome.
In world politics we have a difficult time separating what “all states” do from what “some states” do. The problem is the same as trying to figure out if there is an essential “humanness” that is universal. Here is a fascinating essay on the variety of ways to separate the particular from the universal.
One of the more interesting questions concerning Chinese economic growth is whether it can be sustained over an extended period of time. We usually think about the economic pressures of rapid growth as being the Achilles heel of Chinese development. But more and more people are suggesting that the real concern should be on how robust the legal system is and well it can protect the interests of the emerging middle class.
Analysts are puzzling over the results of the Italian election. We really don’t know how to interpret the results except to acknowledge that Prime Minister Mario Monti’s policies were soundly repudiated. The Brookings Institution, a generally liberal think-tank, published an interesting essay condemning the election as an act of political irresponsibility. I strongly disagree. The Italian people essentially said that they do not wish to pay the price for the irresponsibility of their government and their banks. Perhaps austerity for those who benefited tremendously from this irresponsibility would be the correct course of action.
The world is prepping for another round of negotiations between Iran and the P5 + 1 countries (the 5 Permanent members of the UN Security Council–the US, the UK, France, Russia, and China–plus Germany). David Case and Daniel Defraia have written a great essay on what the issues are right now and how they have evolved.
The Comprehensive Nuclear Test-Ban Treaty Organization has a network of 45 listening stations all over the world that are specifically designed to pick up any seismic activity that could signal a nuclear explosion. The purpose of this network is to give confidence to the world that no state could secretly test a nuclear weapon (and the evidence is fairly clear that the network would pick up any secret test). Interestingly, this network also detected the meteor that exploded over Russia last week. If you want to listen to an exploding meteor, check out this site.
