The Ukrainian accord signed last Thursday by the U.S., Russia, Ukraine and the European Union unraveled quickly today as violence broke out between Ukrainian forces and the Russian speaking separatists. Not many gave much hope to the agreement since the Ukrainian separatists were not included in the accord, and it is not clear that they are united or centrally controlled. The Republican Party in the US is pushing for stiffer sanctions on Russia, but the Russians have already reduced their growth forecast for the year to zero. We shall wait to see if President Putin uses the outbreak of violence as a reason to send Russian troops into Ukraine.
In a very dramatic move, the Palestinian Authority warned that if the current negotiations with Israel remain stalemated, it could disband and ask either the UN or Israel to run the Occupied West Bank. It is unlikely that the US would allow the UN to run the occupation, so, if the threat is carried out, Israel would have to take control of the day-to-day running of the territory, including providing security, basic infrastructural needs, and other duties now maintained by the PA. The move would put Israel in the very uncomfortable position of clearly being an Occupying Power. The threat comes as hostilities continue to escalate over the al-Aqsa Mosque, as some members of Israel are trying to assert their religious rights on the Temple Mount.
Turkey has been considering accession to the European Union for a number of years–it is an on-again, off-again process depending on a number of different factors. The European Union, however, has most recently been critical of the administration of Prime Minister Erdogan and, for the first time, has questioned Turkey’s commitment to liberal values which are at the core of the Union. The assessment is significant, and indicative of a growing global sense that liberal values are losing hold in many polities.
Japan started construction of a military radar station on Yonaguni Island, one of the most remote of all the Japanese western islands. It is, however, close to the disputed Diaoyu/Senkaku Islands, and China is not pleased at what it regards as a military provocation. The territorial status of Yonaguni is not in dispute, but the move gives Japan direct surveillance of the Chinese mainland. A radar station is clearly a defensive military asset, but the Chinese consider the move as designed to bolster Japan’s claim to the disputed islands nearby.
It’s Saturday night. Time to relax. Check out the Penguin Dance, a craze that is sweeping Saudi Arabia. Those Saudis know how to have a good time.
In President Putin’s most recent press conference he used the word “Novorossiya” (New Russia) to describe what he considered to be the true boundaries of the Russian state. The term is actually an old one and it refers to the conquest of the territories once held by the Ottoman Empire and conquered largely by Prince Grigory Potemkin and Catherine the great. If this territory fell under Russian control, Ukraine would lose all access to the Black Sea.
Russia’s actions in Ukraine did not simply appear out of nothing. US-Russian relations have been frosty for some time, and the US shares a good deal of the blame for the sorry state of affairs. US policy under Clinton, Bush, and Obama has consistently pursued interests almost independently of Russian concerns. This assessment does not justify Russia’s actions in Ukraine, but it does place them in a different context.
One of the most urgent issues facing the world is the likely shortage of fresh water in the near future. South Asia is particularly vulnerable to this issue, and the World Bank estimates that India’s aquifers will reach a critical stage in 20 years. Virtually every country treats fresh water as a “free” good and the idea that water should be managed is an idea that raises all sorts of concerns about price and control. Yet it is clear that, unless it is protected, fresh water will become a very scarce commodity.
There are often developments in world politics that truly defy understanding. The European Central Bank just released data on the amount of sovereign [government] debt held by private banks in Europe. Bizarrely, the total amount of sovereign debt has risen since 2012 from about 4.3 percent of bank assets to about 5.8 percent of bank assets. That may not sound like a steep rise, but it is a dangerous increase since it suggests that the welfare of states is now more directly linked to the welfare of private banks. In short, if governments cannot repay their debts, then banks may fail; likewise, if banks fail, governments may be forced to default on their debts. While the percentage has increased most dramatically in what are regarded as the weaker states in Europe (in Slovenia the percentage is close to 14 percent), even in Germany and France the percentage has increased.
It has been difficult to determine with any precision exactly who the armed men roaming the streets of eastern Ukraine represent. They wear no uniforms and have carefully covered their faces with balaclavas. So, depsite strong suspicions, it is difficult to charge Russia with the crime of armed aggression (a clear violation of the UN Charter). The world has become used to this practice in guerrilla wars, even though no solution has been found to identify enemy soldiers. But its use in an invasion is new, and, if it is the case in Ukraine, it signals a very difficult problem for professional militaries that depend on clear identification for the use of massive force. So there has been an incredible effort, some of which is highly creative, to figure out if the armed men are Russian soldiers or merely irregular Ukrainian rebels.
The International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) has certified that Iran has complied with all the provisions of the agreement it signed with the P5+1 on its nuclear program. The verification is a positive step validating the negotiations pushed by the United Nations. In return, Iran will have access to billions of dollars which had been frozen as part of the sanctions that helped bring about the negotiations. So far, the diplomatic approach seems to be working well.
As the situation in Ukraine has unfolded, there have been frequent references to a similar situation in Moldova involving the region of that country called Trans-Dniester (or Transnistra in Romanian). I was unaware of the roots of the dispute, although I did know that Trans-Dniester had demanded independence from the newly emerging state of Moldova after the dissolution of the Soviet Union in 1991. The background to this issue was far more complicated than I knew, and the BBC provided a good background in an article published in July 2007. Since it is likely that Trans-Dniester will figure more prominently in future weeks, it would be good for everyone to appreciate the complexity of the dispute.
NATO has announced that it will step up its presence along Russia’s borders as worries about Russia’s intentions deepen in NATO members with large Russian speaking populations such as the Baltic states. The move is perfectly understandable from the perspective of those member states which feel threatened, but such moves will also amplify Russian fears of encirclement. The situation is a classic case of the “security dilemma” in which genuinely defense moves can simultaneously trigger insecurity. One can only hope that NATO fully informed Russia about the moves before they were announced.
A former Managing Director of Goldman Sachs, Nomi Prins, has written a book, All the Presidents’ Bankers: The Hidden Alliances That Drive American Power. Prins also worked for Bear Stearns, Lehman Brothers and Chase Manhattan Bank, so she is by no means a radical leftist. The book is, however, a devastating indictment of the relationship between financiers and American politicians, both Republican and Democratic. Salon had an interview with Prins and her interpretation of how banks influence policies is truly unnerving.
Russia and China are moving to improve their ties as both countries seek to diminish the US role in world affairs. Both countries seek to establish their positions as great powers and have a substantial set of mutual interests. The diplomatic exchanges since the election of President Xi in China have been frequent and intense. At this stage of their alliance, however, neither country is bringing in any regional allies: China has not really cultivated much support in East or Southeast Asia, and Russia has alienated many potential allies in Europe (although there appears to be a burgeoning relationship between Russia and Europe’s right-wing parties). They are, however, quite adept at exploiting the weaknesses and shortcomings of US foreign and domestic policy.
The Indian Supreme Court has recognized transgender people as a third gender. The ruling is a landmark in the realm of human rights because of India’s prominence in world affairs, but Nepal and Bangladesh had previously recognized transgenders. Unfortunately, the same Supreme Court had reinstated laws prohibiting homosexual sex last December.
Thousands of Chinese workers have been striking at a shoe factory for about 10 days. The strike itself is not unusual–there are many strikes in China–but the size of the strike is quite large and the demands reflect a worsening labor market in China. In many respects the demands mirror many of the demands made by protesters in many other parts of the world.
A Russian fighter jet buzzed a US destroyer, the USS Donald Cook, for about 90 minutes in the Black Sea. Apparently, the fighter made 12 passes over the Cook at a height of about 500 feet and within 1,000 feet of the destroyer. The fighter did not respond to radio messages. It’s unlikely that the pilot of the fighter was acting on his own (although not impossible) and it’s fairly clear that Russia does not welcome the US naval presence in the Black Sea. But additional US vessels are scheduled to join the Cook, and the cat and mouse maneuvers will likely be repeated. Let’s hope that everyone keeps cool.
There was a devastating bomb explosion at a bus station in Abuja, Nigeria that killed 72 people and injured scores more. The President on Nigeria, Goodluck Jonathan, blamed Boko Haram for the blast and given the recent spike in violence in Nigeria, the accusation is plausible. The violence has led to a state of emergency in Nigeria as Boko Haram seeks to establish an Islamic state. There is also increasing concern that the violence may spread to neighboring states as Boko Haram seeks refuge and supplies to continue its campaign.
Global military spending decreased by 1.9 percent in 2013 to a total of $1.75 trillion. US military spending declined by 7.8 percent, but that decline was offset by spending by China, Russia, and Saudi Arabia, and if the US is excluded from the calculation, global military spending actually increased by 1.8 percent.
The situation in Ukraine is reaching a crisis stage as Russia accused Ukraine of issuing “criminal orders” against the separatists who are demanding closer ties with Russia. A convoy of Ukrainian troops was attacked near the town of Slaviansk leading the Ukrainian government to issue a strong statement condemning the attacks and promising to put down the separatists. In turn, Russia accused the Kyiv government of fomenting “civil war.” The situation in eastern Ukraine is following the previous script in Crimea, but, this time, the stakes are much higher for Ukraine.
The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change has issued another report on climate change. The panel is comprised of 1650 scientists and the report has been approved by every member of the United Nations. The report points about that greenhouse gas emissions have reached historic levels and that there was a dramatic increase in the decade, 2000-2010. In short, despite incredible progress in developing alternative fuels, the world has not yet weaned itself from the consumption of fossil fuels, notably coal. The prognosis without change is a 9 degree (F) increase in average global temperature by the end of this century.
I recommend a fascinating article in The Atlantic on how the Enlightenment ideals of self-interest was transformed into the 20th century as a defense of the emotion of greed. The distinction is critically important because self-interest invariably involves an appreciation of the public good; greed ignores the public good. The defense of greed has morphed into the defense of obscene compensation packages for CEOS, something that Enlightenment thinkers like Adam Smith would never have countenanced. I will not ask any questions on these two articles in the quiz since they are dense and theoretical. Nonetheless, everyone should read the articles.
Both the Syrian government and the Syrian rebels are reporting a poison gas attack. There are videos of people suffering what appears to be a gas attack, and there are reports that Chlorine gas has been used. At this time, it is unclear exactly who used the weapons, and it will likely be difficult to pin down responsibility. We will have to wait for verification of the reports. If true, the international community should take swift action against a clear violation of the laws of war.
Gunfire has erupted between Russian-leaning separatists and the Ukrainian government in eastern Ukraine. The separatists have taken control of government buildings and police stations, and the situation has continued to deteriorate. US Vice-President Biden is scheduled to visit Ukraine on 22 April in an effort to show Western solidarity with Ukraine. It’s unclear what tangible support Biden will be able to offer.
There were large protests in Paris and Rome against the austerity programs being implemented to address the sovereign debt crisis of several European states. Austerity programs (cutting budgets and reducing the number of government workers) are designed to create conditions for renewed economic growth. However, many of the programs have depressed the countries in which they were implemented, and it does not appear as if growth is going to return to those countries any time soon.
Fareed Zakaria is one of the most intelligent observers of world politics and he has written an op-ed piece that demonstrates the growing tensions between national interests and global norms. The essay captures the growing power of nationalism in the world at precisely the time that globalization was supposed to diminish the appeal of purely national interests. More worryingly, the rise of nationalism parallels the earlier period of rising nationalism that led to World War I. Nation-states, most notably the US, have a duty to reinforce global interests to counter this trend.
Ukraine is offering concessions to the pro-Russian separatists in the city of Donetsk. The promises include greater autonomy and the power to appoint regional leaders independently of the central government in Kiev. The concessions are very substantial and dramatic, and indicate the degree to which Ukraine is trying to avoid a confrontation with Russia. At this point, it is not clear whether those concessions will appease the separatists in eastern Ukraine.
The Palestinian Authority has signed the Geneva Conventions, marking the PA’s desire to establish its identity as an independent state. Switzerland has accepted the signature, and the accession marks a true breakthrough for the Palestinian Authority. The move triggered a number of countermoves by the Israelis, but it is unclear what Israeli objectives are since the coalition of Prime Minister Netanyahu seems to be breaking under the pressure. There are a bewildering number of possibilities for the negotiations at this moment, but we will have to wait until a more coherent strategy emerges to assess what happens next.
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