World Politics News   Articles for World Politics Course

The Economist has an interesting analysis of the future of the euro, and how possible elections in Greece, Spain, and Portugal could upset the consensus in favor of the European Union.  There is little doubt that the political landscape in Europe has turned against the EU, but there is no coherent vision of how to proceed outside of the union framework.  The risk to the global economy of a European meltdown appears to becoming greater as time goes by.

The Irish Parliament and the French upper-house of Parliament have passed non-binding votes to recognize Palestine as a state.  The moves follow Sweden’s decision to recognize Palestine, and are an index to the extent to which sentiment in Europe is swinging in favor a a negotiated two-state settlement.  Unfortunately, the decision by Israeli Prime Minister to call early elections suggests that he is interested in pursuing a one-state solution to the crisis.

The Hong Kong government has cleared out most of the protesters from the streets of Hong Kong.   But it would be a mistake to think that the protests are over.  The protesters have apparently made a tactical decision to change the nature of their protests and have not given up on their strategic goal of ensuring citizen participation in the selection of political candidates in the government.  It will be interesting to see how the protests morph–it will certainly send a message to protesters all over the world.

The United Nations High Commissioner for Human Rights, Zeid Ra’ad Al-Hussein (a member of the Jordanian royal family and the first Muslim to serve in that role) stated that the US now has an obligation under the UN Convention against Torture to prosecute those individuals identified in the recent Senate report.   The US signed the Treaty in 1988 and ratified it in 1994.  Under the Treaty, the US is obligated to prosecute individuals accused of committing torture under its national law.   Those obligations include:

Under the Convention, torture is defined as:

“For the purposes of this Convention, torture means any act by which severe pain or suffering, whether physical or mental, is intentionally inflicted on a person for such purposes as obtaining from him or a third person information or a confession, punishing him for an act he or a third person has committed or is suspected of having committed, or intimidating or coercing him or a third person, or for any reason based on discrimination of any kind, when such pain or suffering is inflicted by or at the instigation of or with the consent or acquiescence of a public official or other person acting in an official capacity. It does not include pain or suffering arising only from, inherent in or incidental to lawful sanctions.”  (Article 1, Section 1)

By the terms of this Treaty, the US Government cannot choose to not prosecute individuals implicated in committing torture.

India has been an important player in world politics since its independence in 1947.  Yet its overall power has never been sufficient for it to be an active participant in anything other than a regional balance of power.  As Indian power grows, that role will certainly change.  In the past,  India has relied heavily on moral suasion; in the future it will be expected to rely more heavily on its economic and military power.  The shift will pose some problems for India’s domestic population which has never been ask to play the realpolitik game.

Of all the oil-exporting countries. Venezuela has suffered the most from the recent collapse of petroleum prices.   Even before the price collapse, the Venezuelan economy was suffering from very high rates of inflation and shortages of goods and services due to the economic mismanagement of President Maduro.  Recent data suggests that Venezuela may be close to an outright default on all its foreign obligations, and the political repercussions of such a failure would create chaos.

The Senate Intelligence Committee has released a small part of its 6,000 page report on the torture tactics used by the US during the “Global War on Terror.”  I am slowly reading through it, but the little I’ve read is revolting.  The CIA and some Senators are making a big issue about how  the report damages the US and how it will be used by its enemies to attack American interests.  I respectfully submit that the CIA and those Senators should have thought about that matter before the US engaged in such barbaric behavior.

It appears as if the Greek government may fall, and the its likely successor will be a left-wing party, Syriza.  Syriza’s platform calls for Greece to refuse to honor its bond commitments in full, largely because Greece lacks the money to repay completely.  I personally believe that that policy is long overdue for Greece, but there is little question that the act will rattle financial markets across the planet.  But the Greek people should not continue to pay for the sins of the bad deals made between its former governments and international banks that neglected the normal requirements for lending.

One of the saddest aspects of the tragedy of the Syrian civil war is the status of the Syrians who have sought refuge outside of their country.  There are 1.7 million refugees and all but 7,000 have been living in refugee camps in a small number of neighboring countries, none of which has the resources to deal adequately with the needs of the displaced people.  There will be a conference in Geneva this week, and an urgent plea is being made for rich countries to take a larger number of refugees.  Unfortunately, I suspect that the plea will fall on deaf ears–the rich countries apparently have no shame and no conscience.

The US Senate is close to releasing parts of its 6,000 page report on US torture tactics in the “Global War on Terror.”  We actually do not know how much of the report will be released since there are still fierce negotiations going on between the Executive Branch of government (primarily the US CIA) and the Congress over ‘sensitive” parts of the report.   The release of the report is long overdue since the American people deserve to know what was done to other human beings in their name.  One can only hope that information will shake the American people from their long slumber over the massive violations of human rights.

The Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD), an organization devoted to the economic interests of the rich countries in the world, has issued a report which argues that economic inequality seriously compromises economic growth.   Indeed, the organization found that rising inequality cost the economy almost nine percentage points of GDP growth in  Great Britain between 1990 and 2010.  The results suggest that addressing income inequality could be an effective way to stimulate economic growth–not a strategy that has received much attention from most governments thus far.

Today marks the 73rd anniversary of the attack by Imperial Japan on US forces stationed at Pearl Harbor in Hawaii.  The attack ushered the US into the second World War despite a strong isolationist sentiment in the American population and Congress.  The event was attended by the remaining 4 survivors of the attack on the USS Arizona which was completely destroyed in the attack, and remains in the harbor as a memorial to the lost.

USS Arizona on 7 December 1941

Israeli jets bombed two targets in Syria, most likely trying to destroy rocket shipments to Hezbollah operatives in the country.    The bombing itself is not unusual–Israel frequently takes actions to prevent arms shipments to extremists in the region.  It is, however, interesting that Israel has sent fighter jets over Syrian airspace so soon after Iran sent its fighter jets over Iraq.  There are messages being sent by both sides to each other.

The Associated Press has obtained a document from the Obama Administration that lists the concessions made thus far by Iran in the nuclear negotiations.  Those concessions include:

1. Iran will further limit its development of new technology for enriching uranium

2. Patch up loopholes on Iran’s research and development of advanced centrifuges

3. For one centrifuge model, Tehran won’t be able to pursue the industrial-scale operation needed for any “breakout” effort toward producing enough material for a nuclear weapon

4. For other centrifuge models, Iran won’t be allowed to feed the centrifuges with uranium gas or begin testing on a cascade level

5. Iran has agreed to turn 35 kg of higher-enriched uranium oxide stocks into fuel, making it unusable for weapons development

6. Iran will grant international inspectors expanded access to its centrifuge production facilities, allowing the U.N. nuclear agency to double the amount of visits it makes to sites and to undertake unannounced or “snap” inspections

7. Iran will refrain from any other forms of enrichment, including through the use of laser technology

This list is impressive, and would undoubtedly prevent the “rapid” development of nuclear weapons.  It remains to be seen whether these concessions are sufficient for the US Congress or for the Netanyahu government.

More than 500,000 people in the Philippines have fled for higher ground as Typhoon Hagupit is slamming into the country.  The typhoon looks like it will make landfall in roughtly the same area that Typhoon Haiyan hit last year, causing widespread damage and loss of life.

The International Criminal Court has dropped charges against Kenyan President Uhuru Kenyatta for the deaths of at least 1,200 people in political violence associated with the 2007 presidential election.  The decision is highly contentious as memories of the violence against the Kikuyu ethnic group in Kenya have festered since the election.  The decision was met with both joy and disbelief in Kenya, but there is no further legal route to pursue for those who believe the President is guilty.

The overuse of antibiotics has been a looming problem for the world for many years, and it appears as if the problem may be getting out of control.  The rise of bacteria that are resistant to antibiotics is beginning to overwhelm the medical system in India, and strains of bacteria that were once well controlled in other areas of the world are now emerging as drub resistant.  Unless new antibiotics are developed, then humanity will become once again to diseases that once ravaged the species.

Protests in Mexico have been larger and more sustained since the news of the 43 missing student teachers in Iguala was released.  The protests have been largely ignored by the media in the US, but they are turning into a major crisis in Mexican politics.  The protesters continue to demand the ouster of Mexican President Enrique Peña Nieto, but the protests also represent a larger movement against “politics as usual.”  In this respect, the protests seem to be part of a larger global swell of discontent as in the protests against austerity in Europe and the Arab Spring protests.

Oil prices seem to be stabilizing, albeit at a much lower level than was the case three months ago (they closed today at $66 per barrel).  Saudi Arabia is principally responsible for the decline, largely because it has the greatest degree of flexibility in pricing power.  The reasons for the decline are not economic:  they are profoundly political and the recent months will be a case study in economic warfare.  The Saudis are waging economic war against Iran, Russia, and the US oil companies that engage in fracking.  It is a risky game because there are a number of uncertainties beyond Saudi control, largely the response of the poorer members of OPEC who rely heavily on the price of oil for their government revenues.

Six countries produce 60% of the carbon dioxide emitted into the atmosphere every year.   The six countries are: China, the US, India, Russia, Japan, and Germany.   Any international agreement to stop the process of climate change must include all six of these countries if the agreement is to have any effect.  Yet the economic interests of each are radically different, as are the political structures that govern them.  Overcoming these differences is crucially important for an effective agreement.

Russian President Putin delivered his annual address to the Russian people on the state of the Russian nation.  The speech was a strong defense of Russia’s position on a variety of issues, particularly on the unification of Crimea with Russia.  Putin also clearly stated that Western sanctions are not going to force changes in Russian policy toward Ukraine.   Rebels from Chechnya timed a terrorist attack on the city of Grozny to coincide with Putin’s speech in an attempt to focus attention on their desire to create an emirate in the Caucasus.

The UN’s International Labor Organization has released a report on the growth of wages in various regions of the world.  Not surprisingly, wages in Asia easily outstripped wage increases in other parts of the world.  According to the BBC:  “annual average incomes rose 6% in the region, compared to a global average growth of 2% in 2013.”  The divergence among regions is part of the process of globalization as global markets tend to force a convergence of incomes over time, a process that helps low-wage areas at the expense of  high-wage areas.

The inability of the World Food Program to continue its food voucher program for Syrian refugees is having a devastating effect on Syrian families.  Many children are being forced to drop out of school and girls are being forced to marry at very young ages in order to reduce the burden of food shortages on families.   Nearly one out of every three marriages among Syrian refugees in Jordan involved a girl less than 18 years of age.

In one of those mystery-shrouded events that frequently pop up in world politics, there are reports that the Iranian air force has conducted air strikes against the Islamic State in Iraq.   Iran denies that it carried out the strikes, largely because it does not wish to be known for projecting its military power.  That fact has undoubtedly unsettled the Israelis who are already on edge about the Iranian nuclear program.  Similarly, the Saudis are likely highly concerned as well, and will consider the Iranian strikes as a hegemonic attempt to exert greater control over the Middle East.  And the Americans are clearly uncomfortable, now that the US and the Iranians have formed a de facto military alliance against the Islamic State.  Interestingly, Iran likely used old American fighter jets to conduct the strikes.

Six months ago, a new center-left government was elected in Sweden.  Today, it failed to pass a budget because the anti-immigrant Party, Sweden Democrats, voted against the budget along with the center-right party.  As a result, the government has fallen and a new government must be elected in six months.  The most likely outcome is that the Sweden Democrats will be politically ostracized by the major parties, but the Swedish electorate may decide that the mainstream parties have lost their efficacy.

The Israeli government was dissolved voluntarily by Prime Minister Netanyahu.  He fired two cabinet ministers from parties within his Parliamentary coalition who had criticized actions of the government, including the proposed law defining Israel as a Jewish state.  In dismissing the ministers, Netanyahu said: “I will not tolerate any opposition in my government.”  Netanyahu obviously believes that the elections will return a Parliament dominated by the parties more sympathetic to his point of view.