The left-wing party, Syriza, won a decisive victory in the Greek elections even though it fell short of an outright Parliamentary majority. Syriza took about 37% of the vote, far higher than predicted and crushing New Democracy, the party currently in power. Syriza will try to renegotiate the terms of the financial support it has received from the European Union and the International Monetary Fund. It will likely face stiff opposition from Germany against any easing of the austerity programs designed to reduce the Greek budget deficit. It will be very interesting to see how the European stock markets interpret this election outcome tomorrow morning.
The US has decidedly changed its position on the Syrian civil war that has killed more than 200,000 civilians over the last three years. Previously, the US had insisted that the current President, Bashar al-Assad, must be removed from office before any peace negotiations could begin. Now the US accepts the fact that Assad will likely remain in power and has to be part of any negotiated agreement. The change is due to a decision by the US that the Islamic State is a greater threat to the US than Assad, and it will now embrace the old balance of power adage that “an enemy of my enemy is my friend.”
At least 17 people were killed in a demonstration in celebration of the 4th anniversary of the “Arab Spring” revolution in Egypt. Much of the optimism of that period has now dissipated in Egypt since Abdel Fattah al-Sisi was elected President last year. al-Sisi has restored stability to Egypt after tumultuous years, but the price in the loss of human rights and freedom has been very high for many sectors of Egyptian society.
Ukrainian rebels have launched a missile attack on the city of Mariupol, a strategic access point to the Black Sea. The attack signals the formal end of the tattered cease-fire, and an escalation in the crisis. Taking the city would give the rebels a land route from eastern Ukraine into the Crimean peninsula, solidifying control over what Russian President Putin has termed “New Russia.” It is unclear how the West will respond to this escalation.
The Brazilian states of Sao Paulo, Rio de Janeiro and Minas Gerais are suffering through the worst drought since the 1930s. The water shortages threaten the economy of Brazil in powerful ways and it is not clear how the situation can be rectified. Many industries will be unable to function unless the drought substantially eases up. The loss of one of the largest economies in the world would be a crippling blow to the global economy as a whole.
The violence perpetrated by the Islamic State has re-kindled Western fears of “radical Islam.” The recent actions against Japanese hostages will likely inflame the debate further. The category of “radical Islam” is a meaningless one, but it refuses to go away. The world, however, needs to figure out a way to address the issue of terrorist violence without conflating it with a religion.
The diplomacy behind Congress’s decision to invite Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu to deliver a message to Congress without informing the White House has taken a decidedly murky turn. THe initial interpretation of the invitation was to buttress Israel’s desire for Congress to impose new sanctions on Iran in the hope that such sanctions would scuttle the current negotiations. US Secretary of State Kerry countered this move by quoting the Israeli intelligence agency, Mossad, as believing that the sanctions would indeed end the negotiations. Then Kerry persuaded the European Union to issue a statement warning against any new sanctions on Iran. This convoluted diplomacy thus suggests that the invitation to Netanyahu was a deliberate attempt to undermine President Obama’s efforts to reach a negotiated settlement with Iran–in effect, the Congress working with a foreign leader to destroy a Presidential initiative.
There is evidence that the situation in eastern Ukraine is deteriorating to the point where a complete collapse of the cease-fire is likely. Low level violence has been persistent between Ukrainian authorities and Russian-speaking separatists in the eastern part of the state, but there are signs that the separatists are mobilizing for a major offensive. The Ukrainian army has not demonstrated either the capability or the will to resist further separatist moves. Much will depend on how the outside world reacts to a renewed offensive.
For the second time while in office, US President Obama will visit India, signalling the importance of Indian ties to American foreign policy. It is also Obama’s first meeting with the new Indian Prime Minister, Narendra Modi, who was once banned from the US for his role in anti-Muslim riots in Gujarat in 2002. Significantly, the visit will also highlight the growing demographic interdependence of the two countries as the Indian-born population in the US continues to increase dramatically. One can be sure, however, that the Chinese and the Pakistanis will be watching the visit very carefully.
King Abdullah of Saudi Arabia has died at age 90. His half-brother, Prince Salman, is expected to succeed him so there is little likelihood of immediate turmoil in the kingdom. But Saudi Arabia is a critical state in the Middle East, and King Abdullah oversaw one of the most dramatic transformations in the global petroleum market in recent months and there is no obvious end game to that gambit. Moreover, the whole region is in turmoil, and any hint of instability in Saudi Arabia will have tremendous repercussions.
The European Central Bank has announced a presumably massive plan to purchase government and corporate bonds in Europe in an effort to flood the markets with extra money in the hope that the additional funds will stimulate economic growth and higher prices and wages. The process is called “quantitative easing” and is the current policy of the US Federal Reserve and the Japanese Central Bank. The process has had only limited success in both the US and Japan, and there are reasons to believe that it will be even less successful in the European economy. Nonetheless, the plan is a signal of how serious the economic slowdown in Europe is.
Recent polls have indicated that the left-wing party, Syriza, is building a lead heading into Sunday’s elections in Greece. Syriza has promised to end the policies of austerity that have depressed economic growth in Greece to levels worse than those of the Great Depression. A Syriza victory would definitely change the political climate in Europe, but would also likely lead to great economic instability.
House Speaker John Boehner has invited Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu to give a speech to the US Congress on the security threat posed by Iran. The White House was not contacted by the state of Israel about the visit nor did Speaker Boehner inform the White House about the invitation prior to it being proffered. The invitation is a clear violation of standard protocol, and an indication that Speaker Boehner wishes to disrupt the negotiations between the West and Iran. If the Congress passes stiffer sanctions against Iran, then the chances for a negotiated settlement on the Iranian nuclear program will diminish.
Speaking at the World Economic Forum at Davos, Switzerland, Ukrainian President Petro Poroshenko accused Russia of having 9,000 Russian troops on Ukrainian soil. There is a cease-fire between Ukrainian forces and Russian-speaking separatists in Eastern Ukraine, but it is very fragile and frequently broken. Russia adamantly denies the charges, and there seems to be little chance of some accommodation being reached. The European Union, however, seems to be more invested in addressing the threat posed by Russia than it has been in the past, and such pressure may cause Russia to rethink its calculations.
The political situation in Yemen is deteriorating quickly. The country has been plagued for many years by the Houthi separatist movement opposed to the government of President Abd-Rabbu Mansour Hadi who has been a strong ally of the United States. Yemen is also plagued by the power of al-Qaida in the Arabian Peninsula (Aqap), the group that took responsibility for the recent terrorist attack in Paris. If the separatists manage to dislodge President Hadi, the change will be a significant setback for US interests in the Persian Gulf region.
The anti-Islamic movement known as Pegida has grown dramatically in Germany in recent months. The movement mirrors the growth of similar groups throughout Europe, but its emergence in Germany has been quite rapid. There seems to be a decided lack of leadership in Europe on the issue of these hate groups: unless they are clearly and openly condemned by a range of social and political leaders, the groups achieve a de facto legitimacy by virtue of their numbers.
An election is scheduled for Sunday in Greece, and the results of that election may have significant effects on the rest of Europe. The polls suggest that the left-wing party, Syriza, will do quite well in the election, and, if that turns out to be the case, it is likely that Syriza will try to renegotiate the terms of the austerity programs imposed on Greece by the IMF and the European Union. That possibility will unnerve investors in the European economy, not a good outcome for the continent which is experiencing extremely low growth rates.
It’s official: 2014 was the warmest year recorded since human beings started keeping records in the 1880s. Although land temperatures were not the highest, and although it was not the warmest year on record for the contiguous US, the overall land and ocean temperatures across the planet were the highest.
Oxfam has just published a report on growing income inequality in the world and the results are depressing. Last year, 85 individuals at the top held the same wealth as the bottom half of the global population (3.5 billion people). This year, it took just 80 people at the top to equal the bottom half. The trend is clear and it is accelerating.
I am in St. John, US Virgin Islands, and our average daytime temperature has been around 85 degrees F. So I have assiduously been avoiding reading any depressing or disquieting news. But this video came across my email, and it shows a glacier calving event at the Ilulissat Glacier in Western Greenland in 2008. It is an astonishing video, and forced me to think again about climate change.
Italian sailors took control of a drifting cargo ship with more than 450 refugees on board. The crew had abandoned the ship and set it on autopilot toward the Italian coast. The traffickers likely made about $1 million from the refugees who are now being cared for by Italy. The plight of the refugees is tragic evidence of the desperation of many to leave their homes for a better life and the utter callousness of the traffickers who take the money but no responsibility. The ship was registered in Moldova which is curious given Moldova’s location (a completely landlocked country).
The conflict in Nigeria continues as Boko Haram manages to conduct more kidnappings and bombings. The roots of the conflict between the Muslim north and the Christian south are long-standing and stem from a British colonial decision to merge Northern Nigeria with Southern Nigeria in 1914 for essentially economic reasons. Prior to the merger, the two regions had been separate and governed by separate administrations. The merger brought about the difficulty of ruling the two groups through a single government: not an impossible task, but one that gave advantages to the richer southern region.
Northern and Southern Nigeria in 1914
Those of you who have been in my classes know how much I love music, largely because it is something that genuinely transcends all the things that cause conflict in the world. But I never thought I would hear the Red Army Choir singing “Happy.” Now I know peace is possible.
I am off for a vacation for two weeks (US Virgin Islands) so posts will likely be sporadic. Keep smiling and be happy.
In a New Year’s address, North Korean leader Kim Jong-un sounded a conciliatory note to South Korea. He indicated that North Korea would be interested in resuming high-level talks to settle differences between the two states. North and South Korea are still technically at war, since the agreement signed by both to end hostilities in 1953 was only an armistice, not a peace agreement. President Kim’s only condition for such talks was that South Korea stop its join military operations with the US. The South Korean leader, Park Geun-hye, welcomed the address, but made no commitments.
The Syrian Observatory for Human Rights said 76,021 people died in the Syrian civil war in 2014. Comparable figures for previous years were 73,447 in 2013, 49,294 in 2012 and 7,841 in 2011 indicating that the conflict continues to escalate. And even the deaths of over 200,000 people has not been enough to persuade the international community to make any meaningful moves toward securing a cease-fire. The Syrian conflict ranks among some of the worst UN failures since the genocide in Rwanda in 1994.
Francisco Goya painted more than 200 years ago, and much of his work represented the dissolution of the world order occasioned by the French Revolution and the rise of Napoleon. His works, however, testify to much of the disorder that exists in the world today. Great art is timeless.
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