We’ve all had a lesson in propaganda, even though most of us were completely unaware of the attempt. The Washington Free Beacon published photos provided to it by Senator Inhofe (R-OK) proving that Russians soldiers were fighting in eastern Ukraine. Senator Inhofe has been joined by Senators Cruz (R-TX), Cornyn (R-TZ), Rubio (R-FL), and Cotton (R-AR) in pressing US President Obama to provide lethal aid to the Ukrainian government. Unfortunately, the photographs were all from the Russian invasion of Georgia in 2008. The Free Beacon has retracted its story, but who knows how many people were influenced by the original photos. One of the photographs and its original is reproduced below:
The US has weighed in on the dispute between Greece and the “Troika.” Greece wants the austerity programs loosened in order to stimulate greater economic growth, but the troika, motivated primarily by Germany, has refused to make any adjustments. There will be more meetings on Monday, and it is difficult to say which side will prevail. But the US position is that the unwillingness to reach a compromise is jeopardizing the health of the global economy.
Last Thursday South African President, Jacob Zuma, delivered his state of the nation address to the Parliament. Unfortunately, the speech was delivered to a half-empty gathering after a brawl broke out between members of Zuma’s African National Congress and members of the left-wing Economic Freedom Fighters. The EFF charges Zuma with corruption, charges that are highly plausible. The South African economy is not doing very well and many South Africans believe that the economic problems are due to poor governance.
In 1916, US President Woodrow Wilson campaigned on the pledge: “He Kept Us Out of War.” When World War I ended in 1918, more than 100,000 American soldiers died in the fighting in Europe.
On 24 October 1964, US President Lyndon Johnson stated at the University of Akron:
“We are not about to send American boys 9 or 10,000 miles away from home to do what Asian boys ought to be doing for themselves.”
In 1973, when the US pulled out its troops from Vietnam, more than 58,000 US soldiers had died in Asia.
On 11 February 2015, US President Obama said:
“The resolution we’ve submitted today does not call for the deployment of U.S. ground combat forces to Iraq or Syria. It is not the authorization of another ground war, like Afghanistan or Iraq….As I’ve said before, I’m convinced that the United States should not get dragged back into another prolonged ground war in the Middle East. That’s not in our national security interest and it’s not necessary for us to defeat ISIL. Local forces on the ground who know their countries best are best positioned to take the ground fight to ISIL — and that’s what they’re doing.”
Eventually, we will find out what “enduring offensive combat operations” means.
An Argentine prosecutor has asked a federal judge to investigate the role of the Argentine President, Cristina Fernandez de Kirchner, for her possible role in the cover-up of a Jewish community center in Buenos Aires in 1994. The suspicions of some is that Kirchner cover-up the Iranian role in the blast in exchange for better deals on the price of oil. At this time, there is really no public evidence supporting the charge. But some believe that the previous prosecutor, Albert Nisman, was killed because he had uncovered such evidence.
Scientists have estimated that there were about 8 million metric tons of plastic in the world’s oceans in 2010, and are predicting that that number will rise to 9 million tons by the end of this year. The number is staggering and the effects on the health of the oceans and of all life in the oceans are devastating.
The negotiations in Minsk, Belarus for a cease-fire in Ukraine produced a glimmer of hope. The agreement between Russia and Ukraine, brokered by Germany and France, stipulates that a cease-fire should begin on Sunday, that heavy weapons be pulled back from the cease-fire line, and that greater autonomy be given to the eastern provinces populated by a majority of Russian-speaking people. Indeed, the cease-fire terms are consistent with what is truly necessary for an end to the violence. The critical question is how seriously both Moscow and Kiev believe that an agreement is in their interests. Time will tell.
Apparently, the meteorologists are predicting yet another snow storm this weekend for New England. It is truly the winter of our discontent. But do the snowstorms refute the claims that the earth is warming? Hardly. And the explanation for the link between warmer temperatures and snowstorms in New England is actually quite interesting.
Indian politics got quite interesting as the Common Man Party (Aam Aadmi Party) won convincingly in elections in Delhi, giving the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) a significant defeat. Arvind Kejriwal will be the new leader of Delhi, and there is little question that his personal charisma was an important factor in the rout. But the election also raises questions about the depth of the BJP’s victory just recently. The victory of the Hindu nationalist party was overwhelming a few months ago, but perhaps its policies have proven to be too radical for India.
US President Obama has submitted a draft Authorization to Use Military Force (AUMF) to the Congress. The AUMF is a strange legislative creature that acts as a substitute for the Declaration of War required by the US Constitution. It was developed because of the War Powers Act that Congress passed in 1973 in an attempt to reassert Congressional authority in matters of war that had been blurred by the way the Vietnam War had been conducted. The Act requires that:
…the President, upon sending troops into military action, must notify Congress within 48 hours that he has done so. The Resolution also forbids military personnel from remaining in a state of conflict for more than 60 days (including an additional 30 days for withdrawal). After that, the President must seek an additional authorization from Congress or a formal declaration of war.
The most recent AUMF was passed in 2002 to give President Bush the authority to use military force against al Qaida which had attacked the US on 11 September 2001. That AUMF is actually still in force, and will not be repealed by the mere passage of a new AUMF for President Obama in the actions against the Islamic State. The lack of a repeal is important because the AUMF of 2002 contains none of the restraints outlined in Obama’s AUMF. The US will therefore have two AUMFs–one open-ended and one restrictive–and it is not clear which one is fully operative.
The restraints in Obama’s AUMF are two. First, is does not authorize “enduring offensive ground combat operations.” The President indicated that this restraint means that there will not be extensive use of troops actively engaged in combat. Unfortunately, I suspect that no one can really define what the phrase means. So it may not be an effective check against a deep commitment of combat troops.
Second, the AUMF has a limit of three years. That limit is certainly better than Bush’s AUMF (which has no time limit), but three years is a very long time to be involved in military action. And military operations have a tendency to generate their own momentum. Note also that Obama’s term is up in two years, which means that he has also committed the next President (whoever that may be) to operations against the Islamic State.
Finally, the AUMF does not really address the central issue of the use of force against the Islamic State: whether the US intends to ally itself with Iran in supporting both the governments of Iraq and Syria. The latter issue is critical because that alliance means that the US will be supporting Syrian President Assad (and, indirectly, Russia, which supports Assad). In other words, the US still has to figure out who are its friends and who are its enemies. A strange position for a great power.
The situation in Greece remains unsettled. After five hours of talks, the Greeks and the troika decided to hold additional talks on Monday. There are massively conflicting reports concerning today’s talks. Some reports indicate that progress was made; others suggest that positions have simply hardened.
The US has kept an arms-length relationship to General Sisi, the President of Egypt. The US favored a new government in Egypt after it became disillusioned with the Presidency of Muhammed Morsi, but General Sisi has used a very heavy hand in governing Egypt since he came to power, and the US has tried to communicate its discomfort with the violations of human rights. Russian President Putin has moved into the space between Sisi and the US, and is exploiting the vacuum. Putin is a master of balance of power diplomacy.
After three days of debate, the Greek Parliament gave Prime Minister Alexis Tsipras a strong vote of confidence as he prepares to confront Greece’s creditors with plans to reduce Greece’s debt burden. The vote will undoubtedly encourage Tsipras to continue his policy of confrontation, and he pledged that “Greece cannot go back to the era of memoranda and submission.” The EU and Greece are playing a high-stakes game of chicken. It will be interesting to see if there is a voice out there that can forge a compromise.
The Democratic Republic of Congo has never had a peaceful transfer of power since it became independent in 1960, and it appears as if it is facing more political unrest as its current President, Joseph Kabila, appears ready to extend his rule beyond his legal mandate. Hundreds of his political opponents have been rounded up and Kabila gives every indication that he intends to remain in power. The Democratic Republic of Congo carries a horrific colonial legacy that continues to destabilize the country and is cursed by extraordinary resource wealth that makes it a target for ruthless people.
The Obama Administration released its National Security Strategy directive today (I will not ask any quiz questions on the document itself). The directive is mandated by Congress and is supposed to be released every five years to provide guidance on the future strategic threats facing the United States. One obvious change from the previous directive issued in 2010 is the very heavy emphasis on alliances and burden-sharing, reflecting the Obama Administration’s desire to pull back from the extended foreign commitments of previous administrations.
US President Obama and German Chancellor Merkel met in Washington today to coordinate policy with respect to Ukraine. France and Germany have indicated that they do not wish to arm Ukraine; Obama is under intense pressure from Congress to do precisely that. But Chancellor Merkel is meeting with Russian officials in Belarus on Wednesday to discuss a new cease-fire in Ukraine. It is highly likely that Merkel will use the threat of US weaponry to force a cease-fire and she and Obama probably coordinated the specific details of that strategy. It is wonderful to see how diplomacy works behind the scenes.
Diplomatic activity on the Ukrainian issue has reached a peak. Leaders of Russia, Ukraine, France and Germany are scheduled to meet in Belarus on Wednesday as terms for a cease-fire are pursued. At this moment, it appears as if the Western powers are split on the issue of providing more powerful weapons to Ukraine. Russian President Putin thus has the advantage in the negotiations as the Russian-speaking rebels seem to be well-supplied and on the move. The absence of the US at the proposed meeting suggests that US President Obama is prepared to let the Europeans take the lead on the issue, a position that will agitate certain members of Congress who argue for robust support for Ukraine.
Nigeria has decided to postpone its presidential election from 14 February to 28 March. The decision was made because there was no assurance that the violence engineered by Boko Haram could be contained so that the elections could be held. The opposition party led by Muhammadu Buhari supported the move to delay, even though many suspect that the delay was sought by current President Goodluck Jonathan because the polls currently put him in second place to Buhari.
HSBC, the world’s second largest bank, has admitted to practices that have allowed thousands of depositors to hide about $120 billion from tax authorities and to disguise money earned from illegal activities such as the sale of “blood diamonds” from Africa. The practices, which took place between 2005-07, were conducted by the bank in clear and knowing violation of the tax laws of many states. The scale of tax evasion and fraud was extraordinary.
The US has a commanding share of the world’s “very wealthy people” who are defined as those with net worth of $50 million or more. The concentration of wealth is not only extraordinary domestically, but also internationally. According to the New York Times:
“Propelled by market gains and a skewed economic recovery, the United States’ share of the world’s superrich is rebounding. Since mid-2013, the number of millionaires in the United States has grown by 1.6 million, by far the biggest increase in the world and dwarfing the 90,000 Chinese who crossed the million-dollar mark since then, Credit Suisse estimates.”
The charts in the article are quite revealing of the discrepancy. One of our colleagues, Julia Worcester, forwarded a link to a New York Times article that documents the sale of luxury apartments in New York to wealthy individuals who are represented only by shell corporations. Some of these individuals are criminals who are using the apartments to shelter money. According to the Times:
But The Times also found a growing proportion of wealthy foreigners, at least 16 of whom have been the subject of government inquiries around the world, either personally or as heads of companies. The cases range from housing and environmental violations to financial fraud. Four owners have been arrested, and another four have been the subject of fines or penalties for illegal activities.
The foreign owners have included government officials and close associates of officials from Russia, Colombia, Malaysia, China, Kazakhstan and Mexico.
They have been able to make these multimillion-dollar purchases with few questions asked because of United States laws that foster the movement of largely untraceable money through shell companies.
Vast sums are flowing unchecked around the world as never before — whether motivated by corruption, tax avoidance or investment strategy, and enabled by an ever-more-borderless economy and a proliferation of ways to move and hide assets.
One of the most famous studies of human behavior was conducted by Yale Psychologist, Stanley Milgram, who studied obedience to authority in the 1960s. We have not replicated his studies because of deep ethical concerns, but many continue to probe his conclusions in all sorts of creative ways. Milgram’s conclusions tend to hold up quite well in the face of these sustained critiques.
German Chancellor Angela Merkel spoke at a security conference in Munich on Saturday and her analysis of the military situation in Ukraine was quite straightforward and at odds with the rhetoric of several analysts in the US:
“I cannot imagine any situation in which improved equipment for the Ukrainian army leads to President Putin being so impressed that he believes he will lose militarily,” Merkel said. “I have to put it that bluntly.”
US President Obama has been under increasing pressure from several Republican Senators, including Senators Graham and Corker, to provide lethal military aid to the Ukrainian government. Obama has not signaled yet which way he will go.
The European Union has decided to play hard-ball with Greece, giving the country until 16 February to accept its terms for additional credit. Without that credit, Greece will likely be forced to default on its debts on 28 February. Greek Finance Minister Varoufakis ended his tour of European capitals seeking additional aid, but he was completely unsuccessful. Push has become shove. The rhetoric surrounding Greek debt is quite intense:
On Thursday, US President Obama gave a speech at the National Prayer Breakfast, an annual event in Washington, DC. In this speech, Obama cautioned against thinking about violence in the world in religious terms. In his remarks, Obama mentioned the atrocities committed by Christians during the Crusades. The comment elicited a storm of criticism from some Christian sources who accused Obama of attacking Christianity. Bloomberg ran an article describing the politics surrounding the word “Crusade.”
The US and Europe are facing a difficult decision: whether to provide lethal weaponry to the Ukrainian government to help it fend off the assaults by the Russian-speaking separatists who are being supported by Russia. The move would escalate the crisis and Russia’s response to the move would likely be quite hostile. Al Jazerra spoke with several foreign policy analysts about the wisdom of such a move. Their responses provide no simple point of view.
The global debt crisis has only gotten worse since the debt crisis of 2008-09. McKinsey Analytics has done a study global debt patterns and has found that most countries have higher levels of debt than was the case previously. In fact, in its study, only two countries, India and Argentina have made progress in reducing their overall debt ratios. Since 2007, global debt has increased by $57 trillion, or about 17% of global GDP.
Some Democrats have indicated that they will not be present when Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu delivers an address to Congress. These Democrats are angry at what they regard as an attempt by the Prime Minister to manipulate American politics by dividing the Congress from President Obama. Support for Israel has always been a bipartisan policy in American politics, but this breach of protocol has the potential to change that sentiment.
Historically, the use of force among nations has manifested itself in organized military actions. Increasingly, however, organized military action has proven less and less effective, and armed force has begun to take on a variety of different forms. These changes call for sometimes radical adaptations and conceptualizations, a flexibility that is difficult for large militaries. The changes in thinking are nonetheless necessary.
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