A South Korean videographer asked a number of international students in Japan how they recognized Americans traveling abroad. The stereotypes are fascinating. Like all stereotypes, they are both offensive and amusing (which is probably the reason why humans indulge in such weird analysis).
The Jubilee Debt Campaign is a non-governmental organization dedicated to erasing many of the onerous debts held by many governments, both rich and poor. Thus, it has a clear point of view and one has to take that point of view into account when reading its material. But its estimate of how much the IMF has made from its loans to Greece (€2.5 billion since 2010) seems to me to be about right. The human costs of the repayment have been very high for the Greek people, and one is not unreasonable when one asks if profit made from the suffering (not the actual repayment of the loan) is justifiable.
In fiscal year 2014, the US Federal government gave out $444 billion in contracts. Over $117 billion–nearly 27%–went to just 10 companies and all ten are military contractors. The top contracts went to Lockheed-Martin and the most expensive contract to that company was for the development of the F-35 fighter plane which has been under development since 2001, or 14 years. The F-35 has been plagued with all sorts of problems and its total cost over the 55 year life of the program is likely to be $1.5. trillion. Lockheed-Martin “saw over $5.5 billion in profit, and paid its CEO more than $70 million in 2014. And the $32 billion it received from the U.S. government made up more than seventy percent of its total sales.” The SNAP program, which offers money for food to almost 47 million Americans in 2015, has a total cost of about $74 billion.
Officials in Myanmar have issued an edict that prevents Rohingyas from leaving the country. The edict comes in response to the horrific stories of Rohingya refugees being turned away from other Southeast Asian countries, and the exposure of the terrible treatment the Muslim minority has received. Speigel has published a report on the conditions in which the Rohingya live, and the Kafkaesque circumstances which prevent them from either living comfortably or leaving the country.
Hyperinflation is a difficult concept to describe verbally. Zimbabwe has experienced hyperinflation for some time, but has finally decided to scrap the Zimbabwean currency and use the US dollar or the South African rand instead. In order to retire the old currency the government is using the following exchange rate: $1 for 35,000,000,000,000,000 old dollars. It is hard to imagine that the central bank had to print a one hundred trillion dollar bank note:
The Obama Administration is thinking about adding a network of bases for additional US soldiers operating in Iraq. There are at least 3500 US soldiers there already. They are supposed to be there only to train and to give advice, but there is a fine line between such activities and combat. It is difficult for me to see the long-term objective of such incremental moves. The strategy is opaque and I suspect that not even Obama’s advisers can define an end game with any great precision ore clarity.
One of the uncertainties about global warming has to do with the effects of warmer temperatures on agriculture. Some have argued that plants will thrive with higher temperatures and more carbon dioxide. A new study, however, suggests that, while some areas might benefit such as Russia and Canada, the net effect will be negative. In fact the new study concludes that:
“In fact, on a global scale, the authors predict that the Earth will lose a whopping 11 percent of its annual suitable growing days by the year 2100 under a business-as-usual scenario.”
Apparently, there are no silver linings at all to global warming.
In 1492 Jews in Spain were given a choice: convert to Catholicism or be burned at the stake. Today Spain is considering a law to give the descendants of those who fled Spain a chance to gain Spanish citizenship (about 90,000 such people) in a measure of atonement for the historical crime.
We tend to think about extremists who use the mantle of Islam as justification for their actions as being fairly monolithic. Nothing could be further from the truth. As groups become more extreme. minor ideological or theological differences can become paramount. The Guardian has an excellent article on the competition between the Islamic State and al Qaeda. If one has only a passing interest in the competition, then the article will be quite challenging. To follow the struggle between the two groups requires close attention to detail. It is precisely such differences that the opponents of these groups must exploit if they are to succeed in defusing the threat of extremism.
The European Parliament has passed a strong resolution calling upon the European Commission to take steps to prevent “financing of political parties in the EU by political or economic stakeholders outside the EU.” The resolution specifically condemns the financial assistance Russia has given to right-wing parties in Europe. Not unsurprisingly, the nationalist Members of Parliament, such as the British representative of the UK Independence Party, voted against the resolution. It is widely believed that the right-wing groups, such as the National Front in France, have received substantial contributions from Russia.
Even though we have yet to see the complete version of the Trade Bill, there have been sufficient leaks (Thanks, Wikileaks!) to get a rough idea of some of the essential components of the bill. What is extraordinary is the size of the campaign contributions given by corporations in order to gain support for the bill. One cannot help but be discouraged by the degree to which money influences legislation that affects every citizen. The playing field is far from even.
“I was brought up, like most Englishmen, to respect free trade not only as an economic doctrine which a rational and instructed person could not doubt but almost as a part of the moral law. I regarded departures from it as being at the same time an imbecility and an outrage. I thought England’s unshakable free-trade convictions, maintained for nearly a hundred years, to be both the explanation before man and the justification before heaven of her economic supremacy. As lately as 1923 I was writing that free trade was based on fundamental truths ‘which, stated with their due qualifications, no one can dispute who is capable of understanding the meaning of the words'” John Maynard Keynes, “National Self-Sufficiency” 1933
The recent Turkish election was more significant than initially believed. In addition to preventing the AK Party from achieving a Parliamentary majority, it appears as if the new Parliament will be more diverse than any other in Turkish history. A large number of Kurds will elected, but 97 women were elected and will account for 17 percent of the Parliament. Christians were also elected to the body as well as a two Yazidi and a single Roma. One can expect a real struggle between the new Parliament and President Erdogan.
In his recent election campaign, Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu promised to speed up building of settlements in the Occupied West Bank. In order to do so, Israel wanted to bring in migrant construction workers and made agreements with Bulgaria, Moldova and Romania. Israel also made an agreement with China for workers, but China has decided that these workers cannot be used to work on settlements in the West Bank. China claims that the ban is because of safety concerns, but it more likely signals China’s disapproval of Israel’s settlement policy in the Occupied Territories.
One can never be sure, but it appears as if Greece might be nearing the end of the road in its talks with the troika over reforms. The troika continues to insist that Greece cut the pension benefits of millions of Greeks and the Greek government so far has refused to take that step. It is hard to imagine a compromise at this stage of the negotiations–both sides have invested too much of their credibility in their positions. So the only route now is for capitulation, and the Greeks will have to choose between that outcome and default. Both are miserable outcomes.
Today is World Ocean Day and it would be impossible to overstate the significance of oceans for world politics. The oceans are the main transmission routes for most of our cultural interactions, the most important trade routes, and the subject of many disputes among nations. To celebrate the Day, the NASA Goddard Space Flight Center has made a video that is quite impressive:
South Korea has experienced an outbreak of Middle East Respiratory Syndrome (MERS). MERS is a zoonotic virus since we believe that it jumped from animals to humans. It is a particularly virulent virus–about 36% of sufferes die from the disease, although South Korea’s death rate thus far is considerably below that percentage (only 4 patients of the 41 who contracted the disease have died). Since it spreads rapidly, this is an outbreak to keep an eye on.
The Supreme Court rendered a decision today that concluded that the “power to recognize foreign governments is exclusive to the president.” In the case, Zivotofsky v. Kerry, the Supreme Court ruled that Menachem Zivotofsky, who was born in Jerusalem to an American mother could not list Israel as his place of birth on his passport. Israel took control of Jerusalem in the 1967 war, but the US government has never recognized Israeli sovereignty over the city. Congress passed a law in 2002 which allowed such persons to put Israel as their place of birth on their passport, but the Supreme Court invalidated the law. The victory for the Executive Branch clarifies a long-standing constitutional debate.
Jon Stewart is a brilliant political analyst and I truly enjoy most of his monologues. Unfortunately, in this particular monologue, Jon Stewart’s choice of words is highly offensive. So you may wish to skip viewing this episode. But his analysis of American foreign policy in the Middle East is spot on. He manages to capture the idiocy of many decisions made by the US, most of which were made in ignorance of what the essential dynamics of Middle East politics really were.
Temperatures in Alaska are unusually high–on 223 May the temperature reached 86 degrees F while on the same day in Phoenix it was 83 degrees F. Anchorage only recorded 25 inches of snow last winter (while Boston had 109 inches last winter). The temperatures are likely the result of the emerging el Niño and should be a cause of great concern. There truly is something strange going on.
The Turkish election on Sunday brought an end to 12 years of uninterrupted, stable single-party rule by the Justice and Development Party (Adalet ve Kalkınma Partisi or AK). The AK Party took about 41 percent of the votes leaving it well short of the outright majority President Erdogan had sought as he hoped to make some major constitutional changes. The Kurdish Party apparently won sufficient seats to be represented in the new Parliament, the first time it has achieved such power. The question now is whether Erdogan will accept the outcome or try to subvert it with an alliance with the nationalist party.
Thousands of protesters have assembled outside of the G7 meeting in Garmisch-Partenkirchen, Germany. The protesters are a mixed bag of anarchists, socialists, communists, and liberals who are opposed to the proposed trade agreements between the EU and the US (Transatlantic Trade and Investment Partnership [TTIP]). The protesters are also concerned about the lack of progress on climate change talks. The meeting is also supposed to deal with the problem of the Islamic State and the continuing sanctions against Russia for its actions in Ukraine.
Today is the 71st anniversary of the allied invasion of France (commonly known as D-Day) in World War II. It marked the beginning of the end of Nazi power in Europe (the Germans would surrender in May 1945), but the Soviets had been fighting the Germans effectively on the Eastern Front since the breaking of the siege of Stalingrad in February 1943. The invasion was quite costly in terms of allied lives, but it remains one of the most ambitious and successful military maneuvers in military history.
Juan José Morales has reviewed a book by Serge Gruzinski entitled The Eagle and the Dragon. The book is an analysis of the beginnings of European imperialism in China by the Portuguese and Mexico by the Spanish which occurred virtually simultaneously in 1519-20. The analysis is quite revealing:
The Portuguese failure in China drew a dividing line between Asia and America. On one side was a New World which would give its raison d’être to the West, and whose wealth, population and spaces would be ruthlessly exploited; on the other was Imperial China, which would absorb much of the silver extracted from the mines of America by the defeated Indians and African slaves. The fate of the two shores of the Pacific was now linked, as the Iberians had laid down the economic and political bases for a massive decanting of precious metal. The history of the colonization of the New World would have China always in the background, America would be a constant presence in that of modern China.
None of the actors involved was aware of how their destinies were intertwined. But the history of European imperialism would have been quite different if both invasions had not occurred at roughly the same time.
India and Bangladesh have settled a long-standing set of border disputes. The disputes are the residual of British imperialism and the flawed partition of India in 1947 and the subsequent creation of Bangladesh in 1971. Currently there are 162 “enclaves” that do not respect the territorial boundaries, and the resolution of these issues should lead to much better relations between the two states.
The issue of how the Islamic State arose has been an interesting development in the Republican presidential primary campaigns. It was sparked by a comment to Jeb Bush that his brother, George W. Bush, was responsible for the rise of the Islamic State. There is no single answer to the question but there should be little doubt that the Islamic State has a very large number of former Iraqi military and government officials who were disenfranchised by the invasion of Iraq in March 2003. In many respects, the Islamic State is merely an attempt by the former Sunni rulers of the state to regain their former power.
We have long suspected that Saudi Arabia and Israel have been talking to each other about the threat posed to each from Iran. But Saudi Arabia has never recognized the state of Israel and it would be supremely awkward for the two states to admit cooperation. But they have finally openly acknowledged their discussions in a meeting of the Council on Foreign Relations. The states have met in India, Italy, and the Czech Republic. In the speeches given by the two representatives, Anwar Majed Eshki from Saudi Arabia and Dore Gold from Israel, there was little question that both states consider Iran to be an enemy of the highest order. We will have to see if there is a public reaction to the information from citizens of both states who still regard the other as a prime enemy.
Vietnam is offering its citizens a patriotic cruise through the Spratley Islands ( or Truong Sa in Vietnamese). It is a six day trip through some of the most contested space on the planet. The promotional brochure for the cruise is unabashed in its patriotism:
“Traveling to Truong Sa … means the big trip of your life, reviving national pride and citizens’ awareness of the sacred maritime sovereignty of the country.”
“Tourists will no longer feel Truong Sa as far away, the blue Truong Sa ocean will be deep in people’s hearts.”
China and Vietnam have already exchanged fire among the islands and the historical relationship between China and Vietnam is competitive. The two states have fought many wars.
The personnel records of 4 million current and former federal employees were hacked, and the US government believes that Chinese hackers were responsible for the breach. The records were from the Office of Personnel Management and contained numerous bits of information that were sensitive and revealing. The US Government did not reveal the basis for the accusation against China, but, if true, it represents only the most recent episode of what could be described as cyberwarfare. How to respond to such attacks is a very difficult decision to make.
Ghana has been hit by serious flooding. Heavy rains are not unusual in June, but the capital city of Accra experienced heavy damage from the floods and there were multiple deaths from gas explosions associated with the flooding. Ghana’s infrastructure is fragile despite promises from the government to make improvements. The flooding is a serious setback to Ghana’s economic development and the costs of recovery are going to be difficult for the state to manage.
The IMF has just issued a paper on public debt which suggests that its own austerity programs are harmful (you will have to download the report to read it, but the report is free). The abstract says it best:
We argue that, for countries with ample fiscal space (little risk of encountering a fiscal crisis), raising distortive taxes merely to bring the debt down is a treatment cure that is worse than the disease. High public debt of course is costly, but it is a sunk cost only made worse by efforts to pay down the debt through distortionary taxation.
Many have been arguing precisely that point for many years, but the IMF nonetheless has insisted upon its austerity programs. We will have to see if the IMF believes it own authors.
World Politics News 