The Erawan Shrine in Bangkok, Thailand was destroyed by an improvised explosive device. At this time, no one has taken responsibility for the blast which killed 19 and wounded 123. The shrine houses a statue of Phra Phrom, the Thai representation of the Hindu creation god Brahma. The bombing was calculated to cause the maximum number of casualties and will undoubtedly affect Thailand’s reputation as a tourist destination.
Phra Phrom
Russian President Putin is on a three day visit to Crimea, the part of Ukraine annexed by Russia in April 2014, an annexation still not recognized by many countries in the world His visit was accompanied by a resurgence of violence as Russian-speaking separatists try to tighten their control over eastern Ukraine. Poland’s new President Andrzej Duda will visit Estonia next week and he is expected to push hard for NATO troops to be stationed in what he terms “front-line” states (the Baltic states and Poland) to contain Russian aggressive moves. The situation in eastern and central Europe is definitely getting more tense.
South Sudan’s President Salva Kiir has refused to sign a peace agreement that was forged in Ethiopia. The agreement was designed to end a civil war in the young country (South Sudan was created four years ago after a secession movement from Sudan). Apparently, Kiir believes that the agreement gives too much authority to the rebel leader, Riek Machar. The civil war has been going on since 2013 and has displaced about 1.6 million people. South Sudan is plagued by food insecurity affecting nearly 5 million people and outbreaks of disease such as malaria which has decimated the country.
The alliances among the states and non-states actors in the region of the world we call the Middle East are extraordinarily complex and susceptible to minor (and sometimes major) shifts. There is a remarkable website called “Information is Beautiful” which dedicates itself to the graphic display of information. One of their graphics conveys the alliances in the Middle East (including major non-Middle East countries) and shows how these alliances cross all sorts of regional and ideological divides. You can access the graphic here.
An organization called Trucost is dedicated to assessing the costs of environmental damage as part of the normal economic process. Unfortunately, mainstream economics does not factor environmental damage into the costs of a product, instead referring to these costs as “externalities” since those costs are generally not included in the price of a product (and therefore affecting the profitability of a product). Turcost treats environmental damage as an “unpriced natural capital costs” and categorizes them in terms of six categories: water use, greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions, waste, air pollution, land and water pollution, and land use. In its most recent study Trucost estimates that the unpriced natural capital costs of some key industrial products is about US$7.3 trillion or almost 8% of the value of the total gross global product. Needless to say, if companies were forced to include the price of environmental damage in their prices, many companies would not be profitable. The important thing to remember, however, is that ultimately these costs have got to be paid, either in terms of tax monies used to clean up the mess or in terms of lives lost due to degradation in the ability of the planet to support life.
For a good example of how this plays out, one need only to look at the recent toxic waste spill in the Animas River in Colorado. The US Environmental Protection Agency caused the spill because it was trying to clean up a mess made earlier by a mining company that not longer works the mine. The mine was governed by the General Mining Law of 1872 which permits companies to avoid paying market value for the minerals they intend to mine and which does not include environmental protection as an obligation to work the mine. Public land being used for private profit without adequate protection for the public interest is clearly a bad idea.
Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu has appointed Danny Danon as Israel’s Ambassador to the United Nations. Danon has long opposed the two-state solution and does not support the creation of a Palestinian state. Further, according to the New York Times, he:
“has called for Israel to annex all West Bank settlements, annul the Oslo Peace Accords and allow Jews to pray on the Temple Mount. He has described the Obama administration’s criticism of Israeli construction in East Jerusalem as racist and said the United States is not an honest broker between Israel and the Palestinians.”
In short, Ambassador Danon rejects the US bargaining position on the Israeli-Palestinian conflict and the official position of the UN and the European Union on the terms of an ultimate settlement to the conflict.
46 years ago, a defining moment in the history of the world (please pardon my hyperbole) occurred: The Woodstock Music and Art Festival. Perhaps as many as 400,000 people attended the festival (unfortunately, I did not). Many artists made breakthrough performances and became forever identified with the movements of the 1960s (Peace, Civil Rights, LGBT, and Women’s). It all occurred on Max Yasgur’s Farm in Bethel, New York.
The Guitar God, Jimi Hendrix (who served as a paratrooper in the US Army before he became a star)
Jefferson Airplane with lead singer, Grace Slick (who named her first child, God) and who had the bluest eyes in the universe.
Country Joe and the Fish
Richie Havens
And, they were there although they did not perform the iconic song, “Woodstock”, which was written by Joni Mitchell who also performed at Woodstock, Crosby, Stills, and Nash.
US officials are reporting that an American hostage was raped and killed by the leader of the Islamic State, Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi. Kayla Mueller went to Turkey as a humanitarian aid worker to aid Syrian refugees before she was abducted by the Islamic State. The report follows information concerning the systematic use of rape by ISIS, particularly against Yazidi women. Indeed, the information suggests that ISIS has a “theology” justifying rape of those ISIS considers to be infidels. The report will undoubtedly inflame US sentiments against the Islamic State–I suspect the “war on terror” will ratchet up soon: release of such information always serves a political purpose.
The US opened its Embassy in Cuba today, ending years and years of diplomatic isolation. US Secretary of State was at the opening, and his speech was refreshingly honest: he acknowledged the US role in fostering the hostility between the two countries, as in the Bay of Pigs invasion in 1961. Relations between the US and Cuba are still fraught with disagreements, such as the US naval base in Guatanamo which the US still maintains despite Cuba requests that it be closed. But the opening of relations is a necessary first step.
Berkeley Earth, a research organization based in Berkeley, California, released a report that estimated that about 4,400 Chinese people die every day because of the effects of air pollution. According to The Times of India: “about three-eighths of the Chinese population breathe air that would be rated ‘unhealthy’ by United States standards.” The Chinese government has tried very hard to reduce air pollution in the country, but there are economic interests in the country that rely heavily on production techniques that are oblivious to environmental quality.
The Islamic State continues to wreak havoc against Shia communities in Iraq. It took responsibility for a bomb blast in a market that killed at least 60 people. The terror war represents the Islamic State’s desire to reestablish Sunni control in Iraq, control which disappeared after the US overthrow of Saddam Hussein in its 2003 invasion. Unfortunately, the tragedy in Iraq is obscured by political posturing in the US about the threat ISIS poses to American national security. The real focus of US foreign policy should be on how to protect the innocent civilians in Iraq who are being slaughtered.
China allowed its currency to decline in value for the third straight day, leading to a 4.4% devaluation of the yuan. The inability of the Chinese government to gain control over the currency mirrors its inability to stabilize the Shanghai stock market without extensive intervention. The market failures are not necessarily dangerous in and of themselves–we witness similar failures in the US and Europe at various points. But the governments in the US and Europe only intervene when catastrophe looms (as in the bank bailouts in 2008). We do not know how the Chinese people will regard the inability of their government to control these problems. Trying and failing may raise questions of legitimacy.
An 11-year old girl has given birth in Paraguay to a child conceived after her rape by her stepfather. Paraguayan law does not permit abortion (which was requested by the girl’s mother) except to save the life of the mother, so the baby was born by a Caesarean section. There were protests from several international organizations who regarded the inability of the girl to receive an abortion to be a violation of her human rights. The conflict between those who support liberal conceptions of freedom and those who support a more culturally determined definition of freedom continues.
Photograph of the Perseid Meteor Shower from Finland
Greece has signed a 29-page document with the troika concerning the terms of the release of money being offered in order to allow Greece to repay its debts on time. The document is breathtaking in its scope–it involves an almost complete abdication of national sovereignty. The agreement reads, in part:
“No unilateral fiscal or other policy actions will be taken by the [Greek] authorities. All measures, legislative or otherwise, taken during the programme period, which may have an impact on banks’ operations, solvency, liquidity or asset quality should be taken in close consultation [with the troika].”
The Greek parliament has to approve the deal, and Germany has indicated that it still has some reservations. Furthermore, it is not clear that the deal meets the IMF’s insistence on a degree of debt reduction. So there is still more drama to come.
The outgoing Army chief of staff, General Ray Odierno, testified that US troops on the ground will be necessary to defeat the Islamic State. Odierno has a great deal of experience directing US troops in Iraq over the last years of the US war in Iraq, and he does not believe that an air campaign will be sufficient to eliminate the ISIS threat. His position has a great deal of support among some members of Congress, and his statement is worrisome in that it provides cover for those who want a more robust response to ISIS. Unfortunately, it remains unclear how a large number of American troops could accomplish the mission. Large numbers of American troops did not achieve the objectives of the Iraq War from 2003-2011.
Heat waves continue to be a global problem. After extreme heat in India, Pakistan, and Iran (where a heat index–temperature and humidity–reached an astonishing 163 degrees F), now Egypt is in the grip of a heat wave that has killed 61 people. As is usually the case, the dead are the most vulnerable: the elderly and those who are required to work outside. Air conditioning is a unreliable alternative as electrical generating services are sporadic.
One of the most interesting aspects of analysis is the omnipresence of conflicting information. We often receive interpretations of data that seems to come from different universes. For example, on 6 August The Economist published an article on the Spanish economy entitled “Back on its feet.” Today The New York Times published an article entitled “For Many in Spain, a Heralded Economic Recovery Feels Like a Bust“. A close reading of both articles, however, suggests that both articles are, in some sense, accurate, but only accurate when looking at different parts of the Spanish economy. Many conclusions are based entirely on the analysis of data that the analyst believes is important, not necessarily the data that is truly representative of the whole story.
Another one of the BRICS countries has registered very slow growth. Indeed, in the case of Russia the economy actually shrunk by 4.6% in the second quarter. The decline is due to lower prices for oil, the chief export of the Russian economy. The sanctions against Russia for its activities in Ukraine also played a significant role in the slowdown. Last year the ruble depreciated by 43% leading to a sharp spike in prices for ordinary goods. There are few overt signs of political discontent in Russia, but one can be certain that the Russian people are feeling squeezed.
Last month, China announced its position on the climate change talks which are scheduled for the end of this year and will be held in Paris. Yuqian Peng, a 2015 graduate of Mount Holyoke College and currently at Yale, co-authored a paper analyzing the Chinese position. The Chinese have moved somewhat from their position at the last climate meeting in Copenhagen and have made tremendous strides in addressing its role in the process of climate change. Along with President Obama’s recent moves on carbon emissions, the revised stances of the two largest emitters of greenhouse gases give some reason to hope for a meaningful meeting in Paris.
seven months into her second term, Brazilian President Dilma Rousseff is facing possible impeachment charges. The Brazilian economy has slowed considerably due to lower commodity prices, inflation is increasing, and the country’s oil company, Petrobras, is mired in a deep corruption scandal. Only 8% of the Brazilian electorate approve of Rousseff’s policies and there are almost daily protests against her administration. All of the emerging economies (the BRICS–Brazil, Russia, Indonesia, China, and South Africa) all going through an economic slowdown, a development that augurs ill for the global economy.
Violence between Turkish forces and Kurdish rebels has broken out into the open, ending a period of rapprochement begun by Turkish Prime Minister Erdogan. The attacks have occurred as Turkey has joined the fight against the Islamic State but is using that struggle as a cover to contain Kurdish thoughts of independence. The Kurds have been the most effective ground force against the Islamic State, but their successes have led to an expectation of an eventual recognition of their independence as a reward for their effectiveness. Even though Erdogan regards the Islamic State as a potential threat, he apparently believes that moves for Kurdish independence consitute a greater threat to Turkish territorial integrity.
The migrant crisis in Europe has manifested itself in a variety of ways, but the rhetoric surrounding the migrants is hyperbolic. Reading the press in Europe, one would tend to believe that Europe is being engulfed by an overwhelming number of poor people who wish to live off the social safety nets constructed by Europe over the 20th century. The truth is quite different. Nearly 70% of the migrants are not fleeing poverty–they are fleeing violence. Most of the refugees are coming from places like Syria and Afghanistan where personal safety is at great risk. Furthermore, the number of refugees is actually quite small. According to The Guardian:
“In reality, the number of migrants to have arrived so far this year (200,000) is so minuscule that it constitutes just 0.027% of Europe’s total population of 740 million.”
Political rhetoric has distorted our views of what is admittedly a tragic situation but hardly an insoluble one.
Haiti held its first election in four years. The election was marred by violence, but that is not unusual for the country. Haiti, living in the shadow of the United States and its several military interventions, has never developed a stable civic society. It has endured brutal dictatorships, extreme poverty, and natural disasters throughout the 20th century. Since 2011 its legislature has tried to hold two elections which were both cancelled, and it has not met since last January. There are several candidates for President, all of whom are associated with previous governments. One can only hope that these elections can resolve the long-standing dysfunction of the government.
China is the world’s second largest economy and it is showing signs of an economic slowdown. The Chinese government has long tried to manage an economic transition from an export-led economy to a domestic consumption-based economy. That transition is not complete, and Chinese exports fell 8.3% from last year. The fall in exports was caused by an appreciation of the Chinese currency, the yuan, and a fall in demand for Chinese exports from Europe. More troubling was the drop-off in demand for imports by Chinese consumers, indicating that the move to a consumption-based economy is also falling short. A slowdown in Chinese economic growth has led to a steep fall in the price of industrial commodities such as copper and oil, and that decline is hurting the economies of many emerging economies that rely heavily on the revenues from commodity exports. If the Chinese economy slows down considerably it will have a major effect on the global economy.
Four years ago the Fukushima Daiichi nuclear reactors suffered major damage from and earthquake and tsunami resulting in the closure of all 48 nuclear reactors in the country and ther evacuation of 160,000 people from the affected area. Japan is now preparing to restart many of the closed reactors, a move that has triggered off a sharp debate within the country. The Japanese economy has suffered from having to switch to more expensive fossil fuels for energy, but the safety risks associated with reactor restarts are quite substantial. The government, however, seems intent on moving back to nuclear energy.
James Fallows has an interesting piece in The Atlantic that raises good questions about how the media frames political issues. In this particular case, Fallows parses out the logic of possible headlines describing the dispute between the Obama Administration and Israel and its allies on the Iranian nuclear deal. He does not charge the New York Times of constructing a headline with a pro-Israel bias, but he does point out how different alternative headlines convey implicit and perhaps subliminal messages.
The US is coming up to its 50th anniversary of the Watts riots, one of the most intense episodes of protests against racism in American history. The riots started from what should have been a routine traffic violation, but the predominately black population of the Watts section of Los Angeles took the occasion as representative of a sustained history of police misconduct against African-Americans. Race-based riots were not new in the United States, but every generation apparently needs to relearn the same lesson. The riots last year in Ferguson, Missouri and subsequent protests in other American cities seem to be following the same pattern of relearning. Perhaps at some point in the future, we won’t need to be reminded that all persons should be given complete and total respect.
National Geographic has released a new map of Arctic sea ice as it has changed from 1999 to 2014. The map is sobering. As always, it is difficult to tell from a map how consequential the changes are, but it is clear that the changes are already triggering off geopolitical changes as states vie for control of the resources that may become available from the melting or from the navigational changes the ice melt permits.
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