The European Union has told British Prime Minister Boris Johnson that his Brexit plans regarding the relationship between the Republic of Ireland and Northern Ireland are not even “remotely acceptable”. The possibility of an acceptable agreement was highly unlikely and it would be virtually impossible for all members of the EU to agree to any modifications to the original agreement (the vote would have to be unanimous). The European Parliament made clear that Johnson’s plans are not acceptable:
“The parliament’s Brexit steering group said the plan for customs checks and controls on the island of Ireland would ‘breach a range of fundamental principles and red lines’.
“’The UK proposals on customs and on regulatory aspects explicitly provide for infrastructure, controls and checks but are unclear as to exactly where and how these would be carried out,’ the committee said. ‘Any form of controls and checks in and around the border would signify the end of frictionless trade and as such would harm the all-island economy as well as represent a serious risk to the peace process, and could imply a serious risk for our consumers and businesses.’
“The MEPs said the parliament would also veto any withdrawal agreement that did not provide a failsafe solution for avoiding a hard border on the island of Ireland.”
The Irish made it very clear that the plans were unacceptable as well, indicating that the lack of progress on the matter makes a “no-deal” Brexit almost inevitable. All the available evidence suggests that a “no-deal” Brexit would be economically disastrous for the British economy.
“While the sheer number of attacks on science is striking, what’s really shocking is how these actions put us all at risk. These attacks have ramifications not just for federal scientists, but for the health and safety of the public and our ability to trust what this administration is telling us.
“For scientists working in the federal government, being reprimanded or threatened with termination for simply doing your job can take a toll on morale. Day-to-day decisions that would otherwise seem uncontroversial may have serious repercussions for scientists working under Trump — and that means the rest of us aren’t getting the benefits of work being done on our behalf.”
The deliberate distortions make us all more vulnerable to economic and political power wielded by those who wish to make a profit despite the injuries to the public at large.
Samanth Subramanian has written an excellent essay for the Huffington Post entitled “What if the World Treated the U.S. Like a Rogue State“. The essay goes through the history of sanctions as an instrument of diplomacy, and raises the possibility of the world using sanctions to rein in the excesses of US foreign policy. The issue seems clear:
“The U.S. has never hesitated to make up the rules for itself, but after the end of World War II, it was largely cast as a hegemon maintaining a global order. Now, it is a hegemon that scorns that order. More and more, the world fears that Trump is only a symptom of a much deeper problem, said James Davis, an American political scientist at the University of St. Gallen in Switzerland. European politicians in particular, he said, worry that deep social trends in America—towards chauvinism, insularity and coercion—will keep blooming even after Trump leaves the White House. Other governments ‘aren’t going to be willing to deal with you on the same terms again,’ Davis added. ‘They won’t trust the system. They’ll worry that in a few years, there will be another explosion.
“So the question is worth asking: How much longer will it be before the rest of the world thinks about punishing the U.S. for its misdemeanors? And how would they even go about disciplining a country as mighty as the United States?”
Subramanian identifies the dollar as the most likely weakness that other states could use to influence US policy. Indeed, the US currently uses the dollar’s special status as a trusted reserve currency to force other states to follow US policy against countries such as Iran and Cuba. There are reasons to believe that many states would prefer to have alternative currencies to trust, but there are few viable alternatives at this point. If the US economy weakens, then that tactic would become more feasible. But sanctions targeted against the US dollar would probably not work now.
“Here’s the offer, according to two sources familiar with the negotiations: The United Nations would suspend sanctions on Pyongyang’s textile and coal exports for 36 months in exchange for the verifiable closure of the Yongbyon nuclear facility and another measure, most likely the end of North Korea’s uranium enrichment.
“It’s a risky but reasonable move, experts tell me. Reasonable because asking North Korea to completely dismantle its nuclear program before receiving sanctions relief — as the Trump administration has since the start of nuclear talks — was likely always going to be rejected by Pyongyang. What’s more, Yongbyon is the ‘heart’ of the country’s nuclear program and tearing down its many facilities would greatly blunt Kim Jong Un’s arsenal.
“It’s a risky proposal, though, because North Korea could continue to improve its weaponry over the three-year period. Experts in the US and South Korea also say it will take much more than three years to verifiably destroy all the nuclear facilities, documents, and other materials at Yongbyon — assuming international inspectors are granted the requisite access at all.”
The Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco has published a paper entitled “Are Workers Losing to Robots?” There is little question that labor has lost a great deal of bargaining power over the last 4 decades. The Bank notes:
“A strong labor market and low unemployment traditionally help boost wages. But in the past two decades, the labor share—the portion of national income going to workers—has declined from about 63% in 2000 to 56% in 2018. This decline accelerated during the Great Recession, and the labor share has remained at historically low levels, even with strong employment growth in recent years.
“One possible cause of the decline in the labor share is that workers have lost bargaining power over the years. The late economist Alan Krueger highlighted several contributing factors, such as declines in union membership, increased outsourcing and offshoring, and noncompete clauses that hinder workers’ mobility across employers and regions (Krueger 2018).
“Another factor to consider is automation. Businesses have more options to automate hard-to-fill positions now than in the past. With rapid advances in robotics and artificial intelligence, robots can perform more jobs and tasks that required human skills only a few years ago. The steady decline in the relative prices of robots and automation equipment over the past few decades have made it increasingly profitable to automate. In this environment, workers may be reluctant to ask for significant pay raises out of fear that an employer will replace their jobs with robots.”
The graph below shows how much labor’s share of national income has declined over the years. The green line shows how much of that decline would be lessened without the effects of automation. Automation clearly has an effect, but the real cause of the decline is the process of globalization which sends jobs overseas.
Protests in Hong Kong escalated as a protester was shot in the chest with live ammunition by riot police. Today was the 70th anniversary of the founding of the People’s Republic of China and the event was celebrated in Beijing by a massive military parade. But the Hong Kong protesters wanted today to mark a sorrowful event and participated in various funeral rites. The Guardian describes the protests:
“Tuesday’s marchers had already defied a police ban to turn out in large numbers. Organisers wanted to mark the 70th anniversary of communist China as a day of mourning not celebration, and tens of thousands came out in response.
“’We want to show people this is not a happy anniversary,’ said Richard Hung, who works in the technology sector. ‘The CCP [Chinese Communist party] has killed or injured so many millions of people already. We have come out today, because if we don’t, we may not have another chance.’
“For the first few hours, the main march through the city centre was peaceful, with protesters dressed largely in black singing ‘glory to Hong Kong’, scattering paper money used for funeral offerings, and scrawling protest slogans on streets, bus stations and shops seen as pro-Beijing.
“Graffiti included anti-China messages mocking the day’s celebrations across the border, calls for freedom and democracy, and a warning with a prophetic ring that has become a protest staple: ‘if you burn, we burn with you’.
“Many families and young children were among the crowds at first. ‘You can see, we don’t have any protective gear,’ said Terrence, a logistics worker walking with his eight-year-old daughter. ‘We want freedom, and don’t want to belong to China.’”
The protests are an embarrassment to President Xi, but it seems as if the central government in Beijing does not know how to respond. The shooting of a protester will undoubtedly make a resolution much more difficult. US President Trump congratulated President Xi and made no mention of the protests in Hong Kong.
I will not be posting Saturday or Sunday. I am officiating at the wedding of the son of my old college roommate, and I do not want the outside to intrude upon this joyous occasion.
” Taken together, the reduction in refugee admissions and the new restrictions on where they may resettle represent another blow to the US’s ability to aid the world’s most vulnerable populations, even as the number of refugees worldwide has soared. The number of refugees worldwide approximately doubled between 2012 and 2018 to more than 20 million, according to the UN High Commissioner for Refugees.”
The quota for refugees is the lowest in US history and signals a profound shift away from the historical values of the American people. Additionally, many of the 18,000 slots are already reserved for certain groups: ” The administration will reserve 5,000 slots for refugee persecuted on the basis of religion, and 4,000 spaces for Iraqis who assisted U.S. forces in that country. Another 1,500 refugee placements will be set aside for residents of Guatemala, El Salvador and Honduras, according to the document.”
“First, an economy with wealth taxes can raise the same amount of revenue as one with capital income taxes (keeping all other tax rates constant) with less distortion. The result is a reduction in the misallocation of capital, yielding higher average wages, consumption, and welfare. Second, welfare gains are relatively evenly distributed, with newborns of all entrepreneurial ability groups preferring the wealth tax economy. The gains become smaller with age and are negative for older individuals, especially those with high wealth. Third, allowing pensions to rise with average labor income (BB reform) yields somewhat lower average welfare gains but spreads the gains to the vast majority of the population.” (p. 31)
“Overall, our analysis lends strong support to the consideration of wealth taxation as a more desirable alternative to capital income taxation, as it has the potential to improve aggregate productivity, grow the economy, reduce consumption inequality, and improve welfare for large parts of the US population.” (p. 52)
The US Census Bureau has released a report that indicates that income inequality in the US is greater than at any time over the last 50 years. The report shows that overall incomes grew last year but that the incomes of the rich rose substantially because of the tax cuts of 2017 and the incomes of the very poor did not rise much at all. The economic effects of these changes affected different regions of the US in different ways. According to the Associated Press:
“The areas with the most income inequality last year were coastal regions with large amounts of wealth — the District of Columbia, New York and Connecticut — as well as areas with great poverty: Puerto Rico and Louisiana.
“Utah, Alaska, Iowa, North Dakota and South Dakota had the most economic equality.
“Three of the states with the biggest gains in inequality from 2017 to 2018 were places with large pockets of wealth: California, Texas and Virginia. But the other six states were primarily in the heartland: Alabama, Arkansas, Kansas, Nebraska, New Hampshire and New Mexico.”
Even though incomes for all groups rose last year, the increase was not significant. The Washington Post reports: ” Though the gap between the richest and poorest expanded, the nation’s median household income topped $63,000 for the first time. However, after adjusting for inflation, it’s roughly the same as it was 20 years ago.” What is most troubling about the report is that this expansion of income inequality occurred after 10 years of consecutive GDP growth and historically low unemployment. “Trickle-down” does not seem to be trickling down.
Pakistani Prime Minister Imran Khan is planning another appeal to the international community on the issue of Kashmir. The appeal comes because India stripped Kashmir of its special status in the Indian constitution, sparking fears in Pakistan that India intended to flood Kashmir with Hindus, changing the demographic character of the region. Khan’s appeal comes as pressures in Kashmir are growing for a confrontation with India. According to Reuters:
“Khan has appealed to Kashmiris to give him the chance to sway the international community and he is scheduled to address the United Nations General Assembly in New York on Friday, but patience appears to be in short supply in Pakistani Kashmir.
“’We are all waiting for the United Nations…to see if the world can help us. Otherwise, we will try to break the LOC border,’ said Habib Urhman Afaqi, the president of the Jamaat-e-Islami political party for the district of Kotli, near the LOC. He said tens of thousands of men around the region were organizing by word of mouth and social media.
“’We are preparing people, emotionally, and collectively we will be ready to fight on 27 September,’ Afaqi said.”
The United Nations has released a new report on the state of the world’s oceans and cryosphere (those parts of the planet that are frozen–sea ice, permafrost, and the like). The report is quite detailed and very alarming: “Ocean surface temperatures have been warming steadily since 1970, and for the past 25 years or so, they’ve been warming twice as fast” and sea levels are rising quickly because of ice melting on Greenland and Antarctica. The report also identifies a threat that has yet to receive a great deal of attention: marine heat waves. National Public Radio outlines that threat:
“‘It’s sort of remarkable that prior to 2012 [or] 2013, nobody had thought about heat waves in the ocean,’ says Andrew Pershing, chief scientific officer at the Gulf of Maine Research Institute in Portland, Maine. ‘And then, in 2012 we had a huge event here in the Northwest Atlantic, and the Gulf of Maine was right at the center of it. It was a real surprise.’
“The abnormally hot water affected animals that live off the coast of Maine, including lobster and other creatures that are crucial to the local fishing economy. What’s more, it quickly became clear that the state wasn’t alone.
“‘Subsequently, these kind of heat wave events have kind of popped up all over the ocean,’ Pershing says. ‘We’ve actually had three major heat waves in the Gulf of Maine — 2012, 2016 and 2018 — and now we’re looking at repeat heat waves in the northern Pacific; Australia’s had some repeat heat waves. So it’s really becoming a part of the conversation in oceanography.'”
A lot of the damage to the oceans is already baked into our future. NPR reports: “Some marine impacts of climate change will unfold in the coming years no matter what. Accelerating sea level rise, for example, will threaten billions of people and present an existential threat to millions who live in Indigenous coastal communities that are flood-prone and rely on fishing.” The oceans remain one of the most unprotected parts of the planet. National Geographic points out how far away we are from protecting the oceans well:
National sovereignty remains a profound obstacle to the safeguarding of the oceans.
The Pew Research Center has conducted a fascinating poll in the US about the level of trust that Americans have in their institutions. Trust is perhaps the most important component of political legitimacy and it is an attribute that once lost is difficult to regain. The degree of distrust is actually quite staggering:
“…a third or more of Americans think that unethical behavior is treated relatively lightly – that is to say, wrongdoers face serious consequences only a little of the time or less often. Indeed, majorities believe that members of Congress (79%), local elected officials (57%), leaders of technology companies (55%) and journalists (54%) admit mistakes and take responsibility for them only a little of the time or none of the time. Some 49% say the same of religious leaders.”
These results are deeply unsettling. If citizens do not believe that their leaders are ethical, it raises all sorts of questions about how they determine the ethical basis for their own behaviors.
to save succeeding generations from the scourge of war, which twice in our lifetime has brought untold sorrow to mankind, and
to reaffirm faith in fundamental human rights, in the dignity and worth of the human person, in the equal rights of men and women and of nations large and small, and
to establish conditions under which justice and respect for the obligations arising from treaties and other sources of international law can be maintained, and
to promote social progress and better standards of life in larger freedom,
AND FOR THESE ENDS
to practice tolerance and live together in peace with one another as good neighbours, and
to unite our strength to maintain international peace and security, and
to ensure, by the acceptance of principles and the institution of methods, that armed force shall not be used, save in the common interest, and
to employ international machinery for the promotion of the economic and social advancement of all peoples,
Mr. Trump made extensive criticisms of China’s trade policies, many of which he has made in previous speeches. But the comments were quite pointed and the audience was more diverse than for his speeches in the US.
The British Supreme Court has ruled that Prime Minister Boris Johnson’s decision to suspend Parliament was illegal. The Court held that the Prime Minister had suspended the Parliament for “no good reason” which riases the possibility of another suspension if the Prime Minister comes up with an acceptable reason. Johnson suspended the Parliament until 14 October so that there could be no debate on Brexit while he finalized his plans for the EU deadline of 31 October. Johnson was defiant, but it is not clear what the next steps may be. The EU has remained adamant that there will not be any revision to the agreement forged by the former Prime Minister May. There is no likelihood of a snap election before 31 October. A “no-deal” Brexit seems to be most probable.
Nothing more needs to be said. Greta Thunberg spoke for us all.
Stewart M. Patrick and Kyle L. Evanoff have written a very good essay on the process of globalization that has been ongoing for the last five centuries. They take the occasion of Ferdinand Magellan’s circumnavigation of the planet to measure the processes of change attendant to globalization. Some of those processes, such as economic growth, have been beneficial. Others, such as the racism that underpinned the destruction of indigenous communities, have been painfully detrimental. Their conclusion is straightforward and powerful:
“What has not changed in equal measure is our collective mindset about the world. Five centuries after Magellan embarked on his voyage, humanity still clings to anachronistic dreams and obsessions of geographic mastery, economic exploitation, and planetary dominance. We have yet to come to terms with the practical realities and ethical obligations of life on an integrated planet. To survive and thrive on a world that has grown both smaller and more interconnected, humanity needs to adopt a more mature approach to globalization. This new, planetary politics should recognize that cosmopolitanism—the conviction that humans belong to a single community, united by a common morality—is not simply an ideal. It is an imperative that must inform how we delineate societies, respond to new technologies, manage the global economy, view and treat each other, interact with the natural world, and countless other aspects of political life.”
The conclusion is hardly novel, but it is one that appears to become truer by the day even as our willingness to accept the conclusion seems to diminish.
Patrick Cockburn has written an excellent essay on the significance of the attacks on the Saudi Arabian oil facilities. He doesn’t dwell on whether Iran or the Houthis launched the attack, but rather points out the power that new technologies have given to ostensibly weaker powers.
“Debate is ongoing about whether it was the Iranians or the Houthis who carried out the attack, the likely answer being a combination of the two, but perhaps with Iran orchestrating the operation and supplying the equipment. But over-focus on responsibility diverts attention from a much more important development: a middle ranking power like Iran, under sanctions and with limited resources and expertise, acting alone or through allies, has inflicted crippling damage on theoretically much better-armed Saudi Arabia which is supposedly defended by the US, the world’s greatest military super-power.
“If the US and Saudi Arabia are particularly hesitant to retaliate against Iran it is because they know now, contrary to what they might have believed a year ago, that a counter-attack will not be a cost-free exercise. What happened before can happen again: not for nothing has Iran been called a ‘drone superpower’. Oil production facilities and the desalination plants providing much of the fresh water in Saudi Arabia are conveniently concentrated targets for drones and small missiles.
“In other words, the military playing field will be a lot more level in future in a conflict between a country with a sophisticated air force and air defence system and one without. The trump card for the US, Nato powers and Israel has long been their overwhelming superiority in airpower over any likely enemy. Suddenly this calculus has been undermined because almost anybody can be a player on the cheap when it comes to airpower.”
How the world will adjust to this shift in the configuration of power remains to be seen. Those who support massive spending on armaments will likely deny that anything has changed. That attitude is roughly analogous to the attitude of the great powers toward the transformation of warfare brought about by industrialization prior to World War I. It is always a mistake to fight the last war.
Another weekend; another protest in Hong Kong. The Chinese government is beginning to turn the screws on protesters, as it uses a number of techniques to identify them, such as through bus passes. There were more reports of Molotov cocktails and other acts of vandalism as the protesters also try to escalate the pressure. There is one more weekend before the 70th anniversary of the Revolution in China. Beijing would much prefer that the anniversary not be marked by protests, and if there is to be a crackdown, it would likely occur soon.
Protests are also occurring in Egypt, despite a six-year ban on demonstrations. The protesters are opposed to the continued rule by General Abdel-Fatah al-Sisi who has ruled as a dictator since overthrowing the government of Mohamed Morsi in 2013. The Egyptian government responded harshly to the protests which caught many by surprise. The protests occurred in the context of a serious economic slowdown which was caused, in part, by an austerity program enforced by the International Monetary Fund. The protests appear to be spontaneous and there does not seem to be any single group coordinating them.
“Although the study did not analyze the causes of declines, it noted that the steep drop in North American birds parallels the losses of birds elsewhere in the world, suggesting multiple interacting causes that reduce breeding success and increase mortality. It noted that the largest factor driving these declines is likely the widespread loss and degradation of habitat, especially due to agricultural intensification and urbanization.
” Other studies have documented mortality from predation by free-roaming domestic cats; collisions with glass, buildings, and other structures; and pervasive use of pesticides associated with widespread declines in insects, an essential food source for birds. Climate change is expected to compound these challenges by altering habitats and threatening plant communities that birds need to survive. More research is needed to pinpoint primary causes for declines in individual species.”
Some bird species, such as raptors and geese, have experienced population increases because of directed activities to protect them. Scientific American published the graph below to show the differences among species.
“Gerald Feierstein, the former U.S. Ambassador to Yemen, suggested the assault on the Abqaiq oil processing facility — a devastating attack by drone or cruise missile that disrupted 5% of the world’s oil supply — shows Iran didn’t believe Trump would strike back with real force.
“’Clearly, the Iranians look inclined to test the Trump administration, to call Donald Trump’s bluff, if you will, to see if he really has the will to really go all the way, ‘ Feierstein said.
“Trump in June said America was ‘cocked and loaded’ to attack Iran after a drone was downed. Then he supposedly called off an attack because casualty estimates made him sad (maybe he was up late watching the analog scene in The American President?). Then he fired Bolton.
“Iran was naturally emboldened by all of this, and unlikely to be impressed by Trump’s Sunday tweet that America is ‘locked and loaded.’
“Every time he makes one of these empty boasts, he makes actual bloodless solutions more elusive. Trump’s mouth keeps forcing Trump’s presidency into dilemmas Trump’s brain can’t untangle. The Iran mess is one of the worst.”
The danger is that Mr. Trump’s language no longer provides any guidance to other countries. But that language does have an effect on American domestic opinion. Mr. Trump may find himself caught between domestic expectations of strong military action and a belief within American adversaries that Mr. Trump will never follow through. At some point, Mr. Trump may decide that he needs to satisfy domestic demands, to the surprise of adversaries who expected little action.
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