A Russian fighter jet buzzed a US destroyer, the USS Donald Cook, for about 90 minutes in the Black Sea. Apparently, the fighter made 12 passes over the Cook at a height of about 500 feet and within 1,000 feet of the destroyer. The fighter did not respond to radio messages. It’s unlikely that the pilot of the fighter was acting on his own (although not impossible) and it’s fairly clear that Russia does not welcome the US naval presence in the Black Sea. But additional US vessels are scheduled to join the Cook, and the cat and mouse maneuvers will likely be repeated. Let’s hope that everyone keeps cool.
There was a devastating bomb explosion at a bus station in Abuja, Nigeria that killed 72 people and injured scores more. The President on Nigeria, Goodluck Jonathan, blamed Boko Haram for the blast and given the recent spike in violence in Nigeria, the accusation is plausible. The violence has led to a state of emergency in Nigeria as Boko Haram seeks to establish an Islamic state. There is also increasing concern that the violence may spread to neighboring states as Boko Haram seeks refuge and supplies to continue its campaign.
Global military spending decreased by 1.9 percent in 2013 to a total of $1.75 trillion. US military spending declined by 7.8 percent, but that decline was offset by spending by China, Russia, and Saudi Arabia, and if the US is excluded from the calculation, global military spending actually increased by 1.8 percent.
The situation in Ukraine is reaching a crisis stage as Russia accused Ukraine of issuing “criminal orders” against the separatists who are demanding closer ties with Russia. A convoy of Ukrainian troops was attacked near the town of Slaviansk leading the Ukrainian government to issue a strong statement condemning the attacks and promising to put down the separatists. In turn, Russia accused the Kyiv government of fomenting “civil war.” The situation in eastern Ukraine is following the previous script in Crimea, but, this time, the stakes are much higher for Ukraine.
The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change has issued another report on climate change. The panel is comprised of 1650 scientists and the report has been approved by every member of the United Nations. The report points about that greenhouse gas emissions have reached historic levels and that there was a dramatic increase in the decade, 2000-2010. In short, despite incredible progress in developing alternative fuels, the world has not yet weaned itself from the consumption of fossil fuels, notably coal. The prognosis without change is a 9 degree (F) increase in average global temperature by the end of this century.
I recommend a fascinating article in The Atlantic on how the Enlightenment ideals of self-interest was transformed into the 20th century as a defense of the emotion of greed. The distinction is critically important because self-interest invariably involves an appreciation of the public good; greed ignores the public good. The defense of greed has morphed into the defense of obscene compensation packages for CEOS, something that Enlightenment thinkers like Adam Smith would never have countenanced. I will not ask any questions on these two articles in the quiz since they are dense and theoretical. Nonetheless, everyone should read the articles.
Both the Syrian government and the Syrian rebels are reporting a poison gas attack. There are videos of people suffering what appears to be a gas attack, and there are reports that Chlorine gas has been used. At this time, it is unclear exactly who used the weapons, and it will likely be difficult to pin down responsibility. We will have to wait for verification of the reports. If true, the international community should take swift action against a clear violation of the laws of war.
Gunfire has erupted between Russian-leaning separatists and the Ukrainian government in eastern Ukraine. The separatists have taken control of government buildings and police stations, and the situation has continued to deteriorate. US Vice-President Biden is scheduled to visit Ukraine on 22 April in an effort to show Western solidarity with Ukraine. It’s unclear what tangible support Biden will be able to offer.
There were large protests in Paris and Rome against the austerity programs being implemented to address the sovereign debt crisis of several European states. Austerity programs (cutting budgets and reducing the number of government workers) are designed to create conditions for renewed economic growth. However, many of the programs have depressed the countries in which they were implemented, and it does not appear as if growth is going to return to those countries any time soon.
Fareed Zakaria is one of the most intelligent observers of world politics and he has written an op-ed piece that demonstrates the growing tensions between national interests and global norms. The essay captures the growing power of nationalism in the world at precisely the time that globalization was supposed to diminish the appeal of purely national interests. More worryingly, the rise of nationalism parallels the earlier period of rising nationalism that led to World War I. Nation-states, most notably the US, have a duty to reinforce global interests to counter this trend.
Ukraine is offering concessions to the pro-Russian separatists in the city of Donetsk. The promises include greater autonomy and the power to appoint regional leaders independently of the central government in Kiev. The concessions are very substantial and dramatic, and indicate the degree to which Ukraine is trying to avoid a confrontation with Russia. At this point, it is not clear whether those concessions will appease the separatists in eastern Ukraine.
The Palestinian Authority has signed the Geneva Conventions, marking the PA’s desire to establish its identity as an independent state. Switzerland has accepted the signature, and the accession marks a true breakthrough for the Palestinian Authority. The move triggered a number of countermoves by the Israelis, but it is unclear what Israeli objectives are since the coalition of Prime Minister Netanyahu seems to be breaking under the pressure. There are a bewildering number of possibilities for the negotiations at this moment, but we will have to wait until a more coherent strategy emerges to assess what happens next.
The Israeli government has decided to suspend tax transfers to the Palestinian Authority in retaliation for its decision to seek international recognition by seeking membership in 15 UN conventions. The Israeli government collects the taxes in the Occupied Territories and then disburses them to the Palestinian Authority. By suspending the transfers, Israel will effectively deprive the PA of any revenues to keep its services going. In addition, a member of the government, Naftali Bennett, has recommended that Israel simply annex all the Israeli settlements in the West Bank, effectively ending any possibility for a negotiated solution. The breakdown of the peace negotiations is not yet technically dead, but it is perilously close.
The Russian military buildup along the Ukrainian border is quite extensive, belying Russian claims that its troops are there just on a training mission. Satellite photographs clearly indicate that Russia could easily invade Ukraine if it chose to do so. The buildup is clearly meant to intimidate, but as yet there is no evidence that an invasion is planned.
Ambrose Evans-Pritchard is a very astute analyst of European economic affairs. This post is a few days old, but it is highly pertinent as Greece re-enters the bond market after almost four years of austerity. Evans-Pritchard fears that the many years of austerity is going to lead Europe into a deflationary cycle. Because Europe does not have a central bank capable of lending directly to banks (it is limited by treaty to lending only to sovereign governments), deflation would be extremely difficult to address in the continent. The specter of a years-long economic slowdown is not far-fetched if the trend toward deflation is not stopped.
We study world politics with an underlying assumption that much of what happens in the world occurs because of choices made by governments. There is, however, a deeper determinant of world politics and it is, generally speaking, understudied. The volcanic explosion of Tambora in what we now call Indonesis in 1815 is one such event. Slate has a fascinating essay on how that explosion change important patterns in world politics in ways that were impossible to determine at the time.
The Russian speaking people in eastern Ukraine have ratcheted up their attempts to appeal to Russia to protect them. They have taken over government buildings, and the Ukrainian government has gingerly tried to evict them, fearing that robust attempts would precipitate Russian intervention. The hostility between those who look to Russia and Ukrainian nationalists, largely from the right-wing Svoboda party, actually came to blows in the Ukrainian Parliament. The situation is highly fragile and precarious.
In testimony before the Senate Foreign Relations Committee, US Secretary of State Kerry blamed Israel for the imminent breakdown of the peace negotiations. Kerry said that the impasse occurred after Israel refused to release the fourth round of prisoners and an announcement that Israel was going to build additional settlements in East Jerusalem. The statement took Israeli officials by surprise, and the US has moved to distance itself from Kerry’s comments. But they led Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu to order the end of high-level contacts between Israeli officials and the Palestinian Authority. The final rupture has not yet occurred, but it difficult to see a clear road from here.
A UN human rights monitor has raised an alarm about human rights abuses against Myanmar’s minority Royingha population. The UN envoy, Tomás Ojea Quintana, suggested that the treatment of the Muslim minority could be considered a “crime against humanity.” In recent weeks, many humanitarian aid workers have been pulled from Myanmar over concerns for their security as the majority Buddhist population takes violent actions against the Royingha, whom they regard as illegal immigrants from nearby Bangladesh. The ill-treatment of the Royingha has been long-standing, but the violence against them is rising rapidly.
The IMF has issued its economic outlook for global growth and it was modestly optimistic. It predicts higher growth for the rich countries, but warned of the risks to growth in the emerging economies. Interestingly, its most dire warning concerned the risks of low inflation and the prospect of deflation (which it estimated at about 20% in the eurozone countries). It is hard to square the growth estimates with the risks of deflation, but presumably the deflation risks are determined primarily by unpredictable economic or geopolitical shocks.
This week marks the 20th anniversary of one of the worst humanitarian catastrophes in human history, the Rwandan genocide. Rwanda has struggled mightily to face the reality and the consequences of that calamity, and much credit should be given to its people for their courage and forthrightness. Unfortunately, some scars can never heal, but the world has much to learn from the Rwandan pursuit of truth and reconciliation.
About 2,000 people are leaving their homes on the Cartaret Islands. They are leaving because the island, being an atoll, is sinking, but also because the seas are rising due to climate change. It’s hard to tell which factor is more important, but we may regard the residents as the world’s first climate change refugees at some point in the future when we have more data.
The official news agency of Iran, Fars, has run an encouraging story about the resumption of negotiations between Iran and the P5+1. The tone of the story suggests that Iran believes that a final agreement is possible, and given the information we have about previous negotiations, the tone leads one to believe that Iran does not consider the demands of the P5+1 to be unattainable. Much remains to be done, and we’ll need to wait and see how the P5+1 interpret the mood of the final negotiations.
Pro-Russian protesters have attacked and occupied Ukrainian government office in the three eastern Ukrainian cities of Donetsk, Luhansk and Kharkiv. All three of the cities are close to the Russian border and government forces tried to prevent the occupations, but the protesters were described by one official as “very aggressive.” The worry is that these protesters are being organized by Russian forces, and the attacks are a signal that a more robust Russian offensive may be beginning.
Hungary has re-elected Prime Minister Viktor Orban to another four-year term. Orban’s party, Fidesz, is a center-right party, but it also gets support from a far-right party, Jobbik. This reaffirmation of right-wing and nationalist politics, is ominous for the European Union with which Orban has had serious disputes. The result also augurs ill for the upcoming election for the European Parliament because the fear is that other right=wing parties might fare as well.
As the Israeli-Palestinian peace negotiations continue to falter, many are asking the question: “What happens if the talks fail?” It is difficult to predict outcomes, but it appears as if Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu will take strong actions if the Palestinians proceed with membership petitions in 15 UN agencies. Those sanctions would clearly worsen the economic situation in the West Bank, aggravating an already volatile situation.
The Afghan election was conducted in relative clam and over 7 million Afghans voted, a number far surpassing previous elections. The robust election is a victory for the Afghan government and has to be interpreted as a loss for the Taliban who had vowed to disrupt the election. At this point it’s unknown who won the election and it seems unlikely that any single candidate for president received a majority of votes. So there will likely be a runoff election. But the results of the preliminary election are highly encouraging.
Japanese Defense Minister Itsunori Onodera has issued an order for Japanese anti-missile systems to destroy any North Korean missiles that threaten Japan. Additionally, South Korea has announced its intentions to expand the range of its anti-missile systems. The moves come as North Korea has begun to test new missiles and has responded more belligerently than normal to US-South Korean military maneuvers. The moves suggest a deepening of tensions in East Asia.
The outbreak of Ebola fever continues in West Africa. It is a devastating disease with an untreated mortality rate of about 90%. It is only transmissible through direct contact, so, with proper procedures, the outbreaks can be contained (unlike the varieties of influenzas that continue to pop up globally). Nonetheless, the weak medical infrastructure in African states make any outbreak potentially dangerous. The only group that appears to be helping substantially is Médecins Sans Frontières (Doctors without Borders), a group that proves the incredible value of non-governmental organizations in world politics.
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