We study world politics with an underlying assumption that much of what happens in the world occurs because of choices made by governments. There is, however, a deeper determinant of world politics and it is, generally speaking, understudied. The volcanic explosion of Tambora in what we now call Indonesis in 1815 is one such event. Slate has a fascinating essay on how that explosion change important patterns in world politics in ways that were impossible to determine at the time.
The Russian speaking people in eastern Ukraine have ratcheted up their attempts to appeal to Russia to protect them. They have taken over government buildings, and the Ukrainian government has gingerly tried to evict them, fearing that robust attempts would precipitate Russian intervention. The hostility between those who look to Russia and Ukrainian nationalists, largely from the right-wing Svoboda party, actually came to blows in the Ukrainian Parliament. The situation is highly fragile and precarious.
In testimony before the Senate Foreign Relations Committee, US Secretary of State Kerry blamed Israel for the imminent breakdown of the peace negotiations. Kerry said that the impasse occurred after Israel refused to release the fourth round of prisoners and an announcement that Israel was going to build additional settlements in East Jerusalem. The statement took Israeli officials by surprise, and the US has moved to distance itself from Kerry’s comments. But they led Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu to order the end of high-level contacts between Israeli officials and the Palestinian Authority. The final rupture has not yet occurred, but it difficult to see a clear road from here.
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