An explosion partially destroyed a mall in Abuja, Nigeria, killing at least 21 people. The bomb blast was timed as people began to congregate at the mall to watch the Nigeria vs. Argentina World Cup match. The explosion was blamed on Boko Haram, but there was no claim of responsibility as of yet. The group continues to evade the Nigerian government, and it is unclear whether the government has the capability to contain the threat posed by the extremists. The US had supplied intelligence aid after the kidnapping of nearly 200 girls by Boko Haram, but there has been no mention of how successful that aid has been.
Syria has launched airstrikes against the Islamic State of Iraq and Syria (ISIS) marking a change in strategy by President Assad. The Syrian government has basically ignored ISIS until very recently. But Assad is playing a balance of power game, aligning himself as the enemy of the US enemy. The switch places the US in an uncomfortable position since it does not wish to be seen as cooperating with Syria (and by implication, Iran). It also places the US in the position of fighting the same enemy as a Russian ally, even though Russia has been an obstacle to bringing humanitarian assistance to the people of Syria. How the US will walk this tightrope remains to be seen. The US National Public Radio broadcast an interview with New Yorker reporter, Dexter Filkins, on ISIS which is incredibly informative.
A bipartisan report has been released to the US Congress, assessing the economic costs of global warming. The report was endorsed by three former US Treasury secretaries: George Schultz, a Republican in the Nixon Administration, Henry M. Paulson Jr., a Republican who served under President George W. Bush, and Robert E. Rubin, a Democrat in the Clinton administration. According to the report the costs will be very high and will affect different parts of the US in very different ways. The report is titled “Risky Business” and has a wealth of information.
Iraqi Kurdish President Massoud Barzani indicated in an interview with CNN’s Christiane Amanpour that “the time is here for the Kurdistan people to determine their future and the decision of the people is what we are going to uphold.” It was the clearest indication so far that Iraqi Kurds will likely declare an independent state of Kurdistan in the wake of the dissolution of Iraq. An independent state of Kurdistan has been the strong desire of the Kurdish people ever since the collapse of the Ottoman Empire. How Turkey reacts to this possibility will have a great effect on the outcome.
One of the most important legacies of Nelson Mandela was his heroic leadership after the abolition of apartheid in South Africa. One of his instruments of justice was a movement toward truth and reconciliation, a movement that many other countries have adopted after traumatic events. The Guardian did a retrospective on the truth, justice, and reconciliation movements since that time. The successes of the movements are tempered by some shortcomings. But the innovative approach shows great promise for deeply divided societies.
The turmoil in Iraq and Syria has much to do with the disintegration of the Ottoman Empire and the subsequent takeover of the land by the British and the French. Trying to understand the current turmoil without appreciating how European imperialism tried to override the historical and cultural roots of the region is impossible.
Capgemini and RBC Wealth Management are organizations that pay close attention to what are known as High Net-Worth Individuals–people with more than $1 million available for investments (essentially $1 million in cash). The two organizations often poll their clientele and the results of the most recent poll are quite interesting. They asked 4,500 HNWI individuals the following question: “To which of the following issues are you currently allocating wealth, time or expertise?” The results demonstrate a lack of interest in economic inequality and civil rights.
How important is credibility in world affairs? According to a leaked secret recording of the Polish Foreign Minister, it is extremely important. Poland is quite concerned about Russian activities in Ukraine, and profoundly disappointed in the US response to the provocations. According to the transcript, Foreign Minister Sikorski said that “the Polish-US alliance isn’t worth anything.” He also made other comments that are significantly more insulting and disparaging.
In addition, Egypt delivered a stinging humiliation to US Secretary of State Kerry. Just hours after Secretary Kerry warned the Egyptian government about violating freedom of the press by charging three Al Jazeera reporters with criminal violations, the Egyptian government sentenced the three to long prison terms. The timing of the sentencing, while Kerry was still in Egypt, was a sharp reminder of the lost influence of the US in the Middle East as a whole. The insult wounded Kerry just as he was preparing to go to Iraq to encourage Prime Minister al-Maliki to step down.
I have posted many articles on the issue of the purported decline of American power in world affairs. The issue is complex, and defies easy categorization. Chen Jimin is an Assistant Research Fellow for the Institute for International and Strategic Studies at the Party School of the Central Committee of C.P.C. and has written a short essay on American exceptionalism. The argument parallels many posited by American analysts, and reflects a belief that the loss of power is largely domestic and internal.
Ahmed Chalabi, former head of the Iraqi National Congress, is positioning himself to replace Nouri al-Maliki as the leader of Iraq. The Iraq National Congress was an organization largely created and funded by the US as an alternative to Saddam Hussein after the Persian Gulf War of 1991. He was actually flown to Iraq after the American invasion of Iraq in 2003 to replace Hussein, but the inability to find weapons of mass destruction deprived the US of the ability to install a new Iraqi leader–the US had to argue that it instead had intervened to establish democracy in Iraq which required elections. The current instability in Iraq offers Chalabi a second chance to serve as an American surrogate in Iraq.
Global poverty is an incredibly elusive phenomenon to measure. Most indicators stress levels of income, and some measure human development indicators such as life expectancy. By these measures, the usual estimate is that there are about 1.2 billion who live in absolute poverty. A new measure, however, called the Multidimensional Poverty Index, has been developed, and this new measure indicates that the old figure is about 1.6 billion, an error of about 400,000 people. The MPI measures different kinds of deprivations experienced by the poor, and develops a more nuanced, composite picture of what it means to be poor.
There are now more than 50 million displaced persons (refugees) in the world, the highest number of such persons in the world since World War II. The world has moved away from the term refugees to the phrase “displaced persons” to account for those people who remain in their home country even though they have left their homes. Most of these displaced people are fleeing conflict areas, and it is often very difficult to get any assistance to them because of the issue of sovereignty.
The situation in Iraq suddenly became significantly weirder. Russian President Putin has offered Iraqi Prime Minister al-Maliki “total support” in fighting ISIS. Putin definitely has an interest in combating ISIS since Putin has been confronting a radical Islamist group in Chechnya for many years. But imagine the possibilities. The US could be fighting along side Russians against rebels who also wish to overthrow President Assad in Syria, a Russian ally. Ultimately, the US and Russian forces could be fighting along side Iranian forces who also wish to support al-Maliki. War makes for very strange bedfellows.
The new Indian Prime Minister, Narendra Modi, has ordered all government officials to use Hindi instead of English in all social media platforms. The order is consistent with Modi’s Hindu nationalism, but there are many in India who do not use Hindi as their primary language. English, although the language of colonialism, has served as a language that does not favor any of the indigenous groups. It is unclear whether the order will stick as it has been issued in the past and failed.
The debate in the US is the extent to which the US military should be involved in protecting the government of Iraq against ISIS. The debate should be incredibly nuanced, but, at least in public, the debate is insipid. The Christian Science Monitor has a compendium of comments made by various public officials which betrays the lack of depth in the debate. Note carefully, that none of the comments specifically identifies a concrete US national interest. The only real questions President Obama should ask are: how can, and under what conditions, will defending the Iraqi government enhance the power of the US? Are the costs of that defense commensurate with the benefits?
In response to the criminalization of homosexuality, the US cut aid to Uganda, imposed visa restrictions and canceled a regional military exercise. The US took the action because it believes that the laws violate the human rights of Ugandans. The penalties, however, represent the expression of American interpretations of human rights, to which the Ugandan government does not subscribe. The dispute is a classic example of how the process of universalizing human rights is a difficult and problematic process.
Sri Lanka endured a long civil war that ended in 2009 with serious charges against the government of war crimes. The UN has asked Sri Lanka to allowed to investigate those charges, but the Sri Lankan Parliament has refused to permit an investigation. The vote cannot prevent a UN investigation, but it will unquestionably hamper the ability of the UN to conduct a thorough investigation.
I am grateful to one of the readers of this blog who reminded me that I have ignored the Pakistani military offensive against Taliban strongholds in North Waziristan. The action is indeed highly significant, as it represents serious risks to the government of Pakistan, but also is reflective of a broad consensus among the major political parties, including the Movement for Justice, that effective action had to be taken against the threat posed by the TTP. After the attack on the Karachi Airport, the government was obliged to take strong action.
In 2001-02 Argentina defaulted on $200 billion of its sovereign debt. As is usually the case in such circumstances, the owners of sovereign bonds in default typically take only a percentage of what the bonds were worth rather than lose the whole amount. In this case, however, some hedge funds (Argentina refers to them as “vulture” funds) refused to take the percentage (what is often referred to as a “haircut”). The hedge funds have pursued the matter all the way to the US Supreme Court, demanding that they be paid in full, and in this case have won the case. Argentina is scheduled to make payments to the bondholders within a few weeks, and it is clear that it does not have the money to pay the hedge funds in full. Thus, a crisis is looming and Argentina may be facing another sovereign debt crisis.
Iraq has formally requested air strikes from the US against ISIS. The request comes as it becomes clear that ISIS is deliberately trying to cripple Iraq economically by attacking oil facilities in the country. There are reports that ISIS has seized the country’s largest oil refinery. The impact on the global oil industry will be slow to unfold, but the effects on the Iraqi economy will be immediately obvious as electricity and transportation are completely dependent on supplies from that refinery. At this point, it seems doubtful that the US will in fact launch air strikes, but the future possibility of such attacks cannot be ruled out.
Militants from Somalia, allegedly members of Al-Shabab, killed as many as 20 people in Kenya and abducted young girls. Although Al-Shabab claimed responsibility for the attacks, Kenyan President Kenyatta instead blamed domestic political leaders for the atrocities. Al-Shabab claimed responsibility for a terrorist attack on a shopping mall in Kenya earlier in the year, asserting that the attacks were in response to Kenyan military attacks in Somalia.
The success of the Islamic State of Iraq and Syria (ISIS) in Iraq has led Western countries to explore the possibility of working with Iran to counter the threat to the stability of Iraq. Great Britain has announced that it would re-open its embassy to Iran, and there are reports that the US is opening discussions about working with Shia Iran to respond to the Sunni movement to establish political control in both Syria and Iraq (Sunni are the majority population in Shia-led Syria, but a minority in Shia-led Iraq). The reports also indicate that there have been positive moves in the nuclear negotiations between Iran and the P5+1. A possible rapprochement between Iran and the West would completely change the politics of the Middle East.
Almost a third of humanity suffers from some form of food deficiency. The world confronted this problem in the middle of the 20th century by increasing food production. In the 1960s, agricultural production was dramatically increased by what was then known as the Green Revolution. The Green Revolution essentially increased crop yields by improving the techniques food production and introducing new strains of seeds. The problem of food security persists, and it is unlikely that improvements in the efficiency of food production can address the issue a second time. The world is therefore trying new techniques that depend largely on genetic manipulation.
It has always been difficult to determine how much money is lost to taxation because it is hidden in tax havens that specialize in disguising the identity of the owners of the money. The world economic system has created this tax loophole for no good economic reason: hidden money, almost by definition, cannot be used productively. The loopholes exist for only one reason: to help individuals avoid paying taxes. Finally, economists have begun to tackle the size of the problem, and the figures are substantial. According to one study, about $7.6 trillion is stashed away in loopholes that are not remotely available to the vast bulk of taxpayers. As such, the tax havens have been deliberately constructed to help a very small number of people, and these tax havens are a deliberate feature of the world order.
The Pew Foundation consistently produces very insightful polling data on a whole range of issues. In its most recent report, it examines the political polarization in America. Not surprisingly, the evidence suggests that the country is significantly more polarized than it was 2o years ago. From the report:
A decade ago, the public was less ideologically consistent than it is today. In 2004, only about one-in-ten Americans were uniformly liberal or conservative across most values. Today, the share who are ideologically consistent has doubled: 21% express either consistently liberal or conservative opinions across a range of issues – the size and scope of government, the environment, foreign policy and many others.
The new survey finds that as ideological consistency has become more common, it has become increasingly aligned with partisanship. Looking at 10 political values questions tracked since 1994, more Democrats now give uniformly liberal responses, and more Republicans give uniformly conservative responses than at any point in the last 20 years
No wonder the Congress cannot get anything done.
The news is too grim. We all should relax. Listen to this video.
The stunning advances by ISIS into Iraq came as a surprise to some and as a foregone conclusion to others. ISIS only came into existence three years ago, and it amassed a great deal of power largely because of its control of oilfields in western Syria. Just before ISIS took control of the city of Mosul, Iraqi authorities actually had managed to interrogate some high officials in ISIS that exposed how much wealth the group had been able to appropriate through its activities. The information should give the governments opposed to ISIS a greater ability to limit the group’s activities.
One of the most interesting dynamics in the current world order is the relationship of China and India. We tend to overlook this relationship as both are rising powers, with similar objectives in recasting the world order in ways that are more sympathetic to the interests of emerging powers. To a certain extend, this perspective has validity. But India and China have been familiar powers for far longer than the contemporary world order has been around, and there are some dramatic conflicts of interests between the two. We should keep our eyes on how both powers interact with each other–over the long term, this relationship is perhaps the most important in the world.
World Politics News 