One would be hard pressed to find a better example of what structural realists (neorealists) call the “security dilemma” than the situation in east Europe before and after the recent activity in Ukraine. Prior to the Russian intervention, there were four NATO jets tasked to defend NATO borders.
After the crisis, there are now 18.
NATO clearly regards the build-up as a purely defensive move; Russia undoubtedly regards the build-up as provocative. What NATO believes is defensive, Russia regards as offensive.
China is building military facilities on a reef in the disputed area of the Spratley Islands. Other countries, including the Philippines, claim the Spratley Islands, and there has been a lot of activity by all sides in the disputed area. The Chinese are quite literally building new reefs for these facilities which could be extensive enough for airstrips and harbors large enough to berth military vessels.
The Israeli cabinet has approved, by a vote of 14-7, a new law that would enshrine Israel’s identity as a Jewish state. Israel’s constitution and its Basic Laws refer to Israel as a “Jewish and democratic” state, but the new law would guarantee national rights only to Jews, although 20% of Israel’s population is either Muslim or Christian. According to The Guardian:
“The bill, which is intended to become part of Israel’s basic laws, would recognise Israel’s Jewish character, institutionalise Jewish law as an inspiration for legislation and delist Arabic as a second official language.”
The bill now goes to the Israeli Parliament, the Knesset, and it remains to be seen whether it will actually become a law.
In May 2011 the Russian geostationary weather satellite took some amazing photographs of the earth and they have been processed into an extraordinary video. See the earth in all its beauty and complexity:
The Japanese economy has recently dipped back into a recession (negative economic growth). But the Japanese economy has preformed poorly for at least twenty years. The new Prime Minister, Shinzo Abe, has tried a variety of techniques to stimulate the economy, but those efforts have failed. Unusually, Abe has called for new Parliamentary elections even though he is not required to do so until 2016. Abe clearly wishes to get a mandate from the electorate, but it’s not clear what he plans to do with it. The Japanese economy clearly requires some extra push.
Many Americans interpret extreme weather events and natural disasters as signs of what some religions regard as “the End Time” or the apocalypse. This religious interpretation of extreme events has the effect of undermining public policy measures since they are viewed as beyond human control. According to the Public Religion Research Institute:
“As of 2014, it’s estimated that nearly half of Americans—49 percent—say natural disasters are a sign of “the end times,” as described in the Bible. That’s up from an estimated 44 percent in 2011.”
Not all religions were included in the study, so it is difficult to make generalizations from the study. But the breakdown of the religions is shown in the chart below.
Although one would not know it from the Western media, the Ebola virus continues to wreak havoc in West Africa. Some countries are making progress toward control of the disease, while in others it continues to spread. The disease also spreads economic havoc. The World Bank has conducted surveys in Liberia about how the virus has effected employment and its conclusions are wretched: “Overall, only about 36 percent of previously self-employed workers outside of agriculture and about half of those originally engaged in wage labor are still working since the crisis unfolded.” The developed world needs to address this aspect of the crisis as well.
In a show of dramatic diplomatic support, US Vice-President Biden paid a visit to Ukrainian President Poroshenko and called upon Russia to obverse the terms of the cease-fire agreement reached in Minsk in September. That cease-fire has been steadily breaking down and there is substantial evidence that Russia has sent in troops and tanks into eastern Ukraine. Biden did not bring with any promises of weapons assistance or any other type of support that might contribute to a higher level of violence. Nonetheless, Russia will likely respond to the US show of support.
Much of politics is largely symbolic–it is for that reason that outsiders often misunderstand the perceived messages within a political campaign. There is a classic example of this process in England right now, as a Labor Member of Parliament has been forced to resign her position because of a seemingly innocuous photograph. It is impossible to describe all the intricacies of this kerfuffle. Read the article and see if you understand it.
As the 24 November deadline for the Iranian nuclear negotiations near, there is a real question as to what will happen if an agreement is not reached. There really is no alternative to continuing the negotiations. As Fred Kaplan points out in this essay, the Non-Proliferation Treaty assures the right of all signatories to peaceful nuclear energy. So if the negotiations end, it is likely that Iran will continue to enrich Uranium on its own schedule. There really is no reason to believe that Iran is deliberately delaying the negotiations to achieve this objective, since the evidence is that the damage from the sanctions against Iran are seriously harming the Iranian economy. So all sides should agree to extend the deadline.
ChildFund International, a consortium of non-profit organizations dedicated to the protection of children globally, released a report on the status of children and the results were sobering. In a statement on the report, the UN Secretary-General, Ban Ki Moon, said:
“Some 6.6 million children under 5 years of age died in 2012, mostly from preventable causes; when 168 million children aged 5 to 17 were engaged in child labor in 2012; when 11 percent of girls are married before they turn 15…”
These children ought to be protected by The Convention of the Rights of the Child, a convention that has been signed by 194 countries except for Somalia, South Sudan, and the United States.
In a trial in Egypt, a doctor and the father of a 13-year old girl who died from a female genital mutilation operation were acquitted of a crime. The case was a landmark case in Egypt since such cases are very rarely brought to trial. But the verdict delivered by a judge who failed to articulate his reasons in the case, is a setback for those who wish to strengthen the laws against the practice. Although FGM was made illegal in Egypt in 2008, more than 90% of Egyptian women under 50 have been subjected to the practice.
US-Russian relations are at perhaps the lowest point since the Cold War. Neither side, however, seems willing to open a dialogue that could resolve some of the animosity, even though both sides have mutual interests on the issue of terrorism and the Iranian negotiations. Indeed, there seems to be a willful misinterpretation of each other’s motives. For example, RT (formerly the Russian Times) has a report on a meeting between US Secretary of State Kerry and Russian Foreign Minister Lavrov which suggests a high degree of mistrust.
Mistrust is also playing a profound role in the escalating violence in Jerusalem. Both the Israelis and the Palestinians are interpreting recent violent events through the single prism of religious struggle. A conflict defined in such terms defies compromise and almost inevitably escalates. Unfortunately, no outside power seems willing to step in to try to bring about a different definition of the crisis.
NASA has produced a dramatic video that shows how carbon dioxide travels through the earth’s atmosphere over a period of one year. It is an incredible video, but note how little carbon dioxide is produced in the southern hemisphere.
Six people, including the two Palestinian perpetrators, were killed in a horrific attack inside a Jerusalem synagogue. The incident is the latest in a string of violent acts in the city over recent weeks. Israel will undoubtedly respond to the attack, so the cycle of violence will continue. The Palestinian Authority condemned the attack while Hamas praised the “high-quality revenge attack”. According to the New York Times:
“Relatives identified the attackers as two cousins, Odai Abed Abu Jamal, 22, and Ghassan Muhammad Abu Jamal, 32. They were said to be motivated by what they saw as threats to the revered plateau that contains Al Aqsa Mosque and the Dome of the Rock.”
The Institute for Economics and Peace has published its annual Global Terrorism Index. The index noted that “[o]f the 17,958 people who died in terrorist attacks in 2013, 82 percent were in one of five countries: Iraq, Afghanistan, Pakistan, Nigeria, and Syria.” Contrariwise, the index noted that:
“Meanwhile, between 2000 and 2013, the report found, around 5 percent of terrorism-related fatalities occurred in the 34 wealthy countries of the OECD. In 2013 specifically, there were 113 terrorism-related deaths in OECD countries—0.6 percent of the worldwide total. Six of these took place in the United States.”
Female genital mutilation is a social practice that is pervasive in many countries. Mona Eltahawy has written an op-ed piece for The New York Times on the practice and she estimates that as many as 91% of Egyptian women between the ages of 15-49 have been subjected to this practice. There is no medical justification for the procedure, but some cultures insist that the practice is consistent with social and moral norms regarding attitudes toward sexual activity. Even in countries that have outlawed the practice, it remains pervasive. For liberal societies, the practice is regarded as a method for subordinating the individual rights of girls and women to society as a whole.
In another op-ed in the New York Times, Steven Rattnerreviews the findings of a Federal Reserve Study on income inequality in the United States. The conclusions are devastating: the US is one of the most unequal societies of all developed economies, even after taking into account the social welfare programs maintained by local, state, and federal governments. The finding refutes the argument that the government programs compensate for the lower incomes offered by private enterprise, and that those programs demand an inordinately high tax rate:
“Conservatives may bemoan the size of our government; in reality, according to the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development, total tax revenues in the United States this year will be smaller on a relative basis than those of any other member country.”
The study suggests that there is a clear process of income redistribution going on in the US, but from the poor to the rich.
The deadline for ending the nuclear negotiations with Iran is 24 November and, as is usually the case with high level negotiations, matters are coming to a head as the deadline nears. It seems as if the broad outlines of an agreement are clear to both sides, but that specific details remain contentious. Essentially, the disagreement centers around the capabilities of Iran to enrich Uranium. It is impossible to prohibit Iran from enriching Uranium: the non-proliferation treaty ensures the right of peaceful nuclear energy which requires enrichment, and there is no way for Iran to “unlearn” how to enrich Uranium. But the capability to enrich Uranium also implies the capability to build a bomb. How the enrichment process is to be monitored and controlled remains the dividing line.
Israeli Foreign Minister Avigdor Lieberman declared that he does not regard building homes for Israelis in East Jerusalem as the same activity as building settlements in Occupied Territory:
“One thing should be clear: we will never accept the definition of building in Jewish neighborhoods of Jerusalem as settlement activity…We won’t accept any limitation on building in Jewish areas of [East] Jerusalem.”
Lieberman does not speak for the Israeli government bu t his statement reflects the growing pressure by right-wing groups in Israel on Prime Minister Netanyahu. This pressure applies not only to settlement activity, but also to Israeli access to the Temple Mount/Noble Sanctuary. There is no activity whatsoever in peace negotiations between the Israeli government and the Palestinian Authority.
There have been many posts on this blog in recent months about the rise of right-wing parties in Europe. The upswell in right-wing politics is often associated with bad economic conditions. However, there has also been a slight increase in the visibility of left-wing parties, although none have yet achieved electoral victories of note. Left-wing politics receded into the background after the dissolution of the Soviet Union in 1991. This slight increase in popularity also reflects disappointment in economic conditions, but as of yet there has been no clear left vision that unites those parties in Europe.
The Tanzanian government has announced that it intends to go forward in selling a proposed 1,500 sq km “wildlife corridor” bordering the Serengeti national park to “a commercial hunting and safari company based in the United Arab Emirates.” In so doing, the government will evict 40,000 Maasai pastoralists from their traditional lands. In return, the Tanzanian government is promising “development projects” to aid the displaced Maasai. The hunting company is the Ortelo Business Corporation (OBC) which has close ties to the UAE royal family.
Henry Kissinger is perhaps the most well-known realist thinker in American diplomacy today. He is a controversial person, and his thinking about the US role in world affairs is distinctly colored by his understanding of 19th century European diplomacy. Spiegel conducted an interview with him and his views are worth considering, even if one has strong objections to specific policies that he advocates.
As Chinese power has grown over the last thirty years, there has been a notable reluctance on China’s part to participate more actively in international institutions. That hesitation has been diminishing lately and China has begun to take a more active role in global governance. We are therefore getting a sense of how China wishes to shape the world order. Its most dramatic proposal has been for the Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank, a competitor to the World Bank and the regional Development Banks established within the period of American dominance. Although its governance structure differs from the earlier banks, it does not appear as if China is pushing for an economic system fundamentally different from the market capitalism espoused by the US.
Last year Russia hosted the G-20 meeting in St. Petersburg and the event was well attended and Russia was highly regarded. This year, the conference is in Australia, and by all accounts, Russian President Putin has been treated like a pariah. The members of the G-20 have made their views about Russian activities in Ukraine quite explicit–indeed, the Canadian Prime Minister is reported to have said directly to President Putin: “I guess I’ll shake your hand, but I have only one thing to say to you: You need to get out of Ukraine.”
Beppe Grillo is the leader of the Five Star Movement in Italy. Grillo is a one-time comedian who organized the political party to protest against the corrupt and staid politics that have characterized Italian politics for many years (in 2007 he proposed the idea of Vaffanculo Day [Fuck you Day]). No one gave him a chance, but the Five Star Movement is the second largest party in the Italian Parliament right now. He is now proposing that Italy drop the euro and he has declared that the European Central Bank is the most serious enemy of Europe. The BBC has a video of his comments. Listening to him will give one an idea of how deeply the eurosceptic movement has penetrated European politics.
Forbes magazine is hardly a bastion of progressive thought, and it has recently run an article on how the US military is taking the issue of climate change very seriously. The quotations from very high-ranking US military officials clearly indicates that the military is way ahead of the US Congress on the issue of climate change. Whether the military can persuade the Congress to take the issue more seriously remains to be seen.
Protests in Mexico are spreading rapidly as more information comes to light about the murder of the 43 student teachers. Protests are sensitive matters in Mexico because of the bloody repression of student protests in 1968. The year 1968 saw student protests all over the world, but the way the Mexican government killed many students on 2 October 1968 in Tlatelolco was exceptionally violent and changed the character of Mexican politics in dramatic ways, particularly in terms of the role of women in politics. The Mexican government will likely try very hard to avoid a repeat of that disaster.
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