Protests in Mexico have been larger and more sustained since the news of the 43 missing student teachers in Iguala was released. The protests have been largely ignored by the media in the US, but they are turning into a major crisis in Mexican politics. The protesters continue to demand the ouster of Mexican President Enrique Peña Nieto, but the protests also represent a larger movement against “politics as usual.” In this respect, the protests seem to be part of a larger global swell of discontent as in the protests against austerity in Europe and the Arab Spring protests.
Oil prices seem to be stabilizing, albeit at a much lower level than was the case three months ago (they closed today at $66 per barrel). Saudi Arabia is principally responsible for the decline, largely because it has the greatest degree of flexibility in pricing power. The reasons for the decline are not economic: they are profoundly political and the recent months will be a case study in economic warfare. The Saudis are waging economic war against Iran, Russia, and the US oil companies that engage in fracking. It is a risky game because there are a number of uncertainties beyond Saudi control, largely the response of the poorer members of OPEC who rely heavily on the price of oil for their government revenues.
Six countries produce 60% of the carbon dioxide emitted into the atmosphere every year. The six countries are: China, the US, India, Russia, Japan, and Germany. Any international agreement to stop the process of climate change must include all six of these countries if the agreement is to have any effect. Yet the economic interests of each are radically different, as are the political structures that govern them. Overcoming these differences is crucially important for an effective agreement.
Russian President Putin delivered his annual address to the Russian people on the state of the Russian nation. The speech was a strong defense of Russia’s position on a variety of issues, particularly on the unification of Crimea with Russia. Putin also clearly stated that Western sanctions are not going to force changes in Russian policy toward Ukraine. Rebels from Chechnya timed a terrorist attack on the city of Grozny to coincide with Putin’s speech in an attempt to focus attention on their desire to create an emirate in the Caucasus.
The UN’s International Labor Organization has released a report on the growth of wages in various regions of the world. Not surprisingly, wages in Asia easily outstripped wage increases in other parts of the world. According to the BBC: “annual average incomes rose 6% in the region, compared to a global average growth of 2% in 2013.” The divergence among regions is part of the process of globalization as global markets tend to force a convergence of incomes over time, a process that helps low-wage areas at the expense of high-wage areas.
The inability of the World Food Program to continue its food voucher program for Syrian refugees is having a devastating effect on Syrian families. Many children are being forced to drop out of school and girls are being forced to marry at very young ages in order to reduce the burden of food shortages on families. Nearly one out of every three marriages among Syrian refugees in Jordan involved a girl less than 18 years of age.
In one of those mystery-shrouded events that frequently pop up in world politics, there are reports that the Iranian air force has conducted air strikes against the Islamic State in Iraq. Iran denies that it carried out the strikes, largely because it does not wish to be known for projecting its military power. That fact has undoubtedly unsettled the Israelis who are already on edge about the Iranian nuclear program. Similarly, the Saudis are likely highly concerned as well, and will consider the Iranian strikes as a hegemonic attempt to exert greater control over the Middle East. And the Americans are clearly uncomfortable, now that the US and the Iranians have formed a de facto military alliance against the Islamic State. Interestingly, Iran likely used old American fighter jets to conduct the strikes.
Six months ago, a new center-left government was elected in Sweden. Today, it failed to pass a budget because the anti-immigrant Party, Sweden Democrats, voted against the budget along with the center-right party. As a result, the government has fallen and a new government must be elected in six months. The most likely outcome is that the Sweden Democrats will be politically ostracized by the major parties, but the Swedish electorate may decide that the mainstream parties have lost their efficacy.
The Israeli government was dissolved voluntarily by Prime Minister Netanyahu. He fired two cabinet ministers from parties within his Parliamentary coalition who had criticized actions of the government, including the proposed law defining Israel as a Jewish state. In dismissing the ministers, Netanyahu said: “I will not tolerate any opposition in my government.” Netanyahu obviously believes that the elections will return a Parliament dominated by the parties more sympathetic to his point of view.
The UN’s World Food Program is suspending its food aid program to 1.7 million Syrian refugees due to lack of funds. This tragedy hits Syrian families as they face a fourth winter living under terrible conditions. The WFP needs $64 million to continue its program of food vouchers for December. For context, the world spent about $1.7 trillion last year on the military, or about $142 billion a month.
Globalization is a process that outstrips traditional methods of control and management. It has brought incredible benefits but also the possibilities for catastrophic failure. One obvious point, made by Professor Ian Goldin, is that globalization is a process that requires institutions that are much more globally oriented than the traditional nation-state. Yet public reactions to globalization often require nation-states to protect a national interest often at odds with the global interest.
Income inequality in the US is a serious issue, and it parallels a trend in wealth inequality which is more difficult to measure. But the evidence suggests that wealth inequality in the US is as bad as it was in the period just prior to the Great Depression. The situation is a threat to economic stability in the US largely because the increase in wealth at the upper levels is clearly mirrored by the decline in wealth in the middle and lower levels. In short, instead of a “trickle-down” process from rich to poor, we are witnessing a “trickle-up” process from poor to rich.
It’s cold in South Hadley, but the temperature outside is misleading in terms of global trends. Climate Central has published a video of global temperatures over the last century and the trend is decidedly upward. Indeed, all of the ten warmest years over the last century have occurred since 1998. And 2014 is on track for being the warmest year ever recorded.
Swiss voters overwhelmingly rejected a referendum that would have restricted immigration into the country. The measure to restrict immigration to an annual increase of only 0.2% of total population was proposed as a way of protecting the Swiss environment. The difference between that rate of immigration and the normal rate would mean the difference between a Swiss population of 8.5 million in 2050 and a population of 12 million in 2050. Voters, however, considered the economic value of immigrants to weigh more in their calculations.
The Hong Kong protests continue, and the protesters and the Government are playing a cat-and-mouse game on the streets. Apparently a suitable compromise for the nomination of candidates for public office remains unattainable. This is the third month of protests, but the protesters show no sign of being worn down.
An Australian non-governmental organization has estimated that there are about 35 million slaves in the world today. The largest number of slaves are from Mauritania, followed by Uzbekistan, Haiti, Qatar, and India. These slaves are forced to work in forced labour, human trafficking, forced marriages, debt bondage and commerical sexual exploitation. Virtually all countries ban slavery, but the prevalence of the practice is astonishing.
The Prime Minister of Taiwan, Jiang Yi-huah, has resigned after his Kuomintang Party suffered a decisive loss in local elections. The elections do not necessarily affect Taiwanese national policies, but they are being viewed by most as a repudiation of the Kuomintang’s pro-China policies. Presidential and Parliamentary elections are currently scheduled for 2016. The opposition party which won many of the local elections favors independence from China, a policy that, if ratified in 2016, would pose serious problems with Taiwanese-Chinese elections. Taiwan separated from China after the Communist Revolution in 1949, but virtually no other country in the world recognizes Taiwan as an independent nation-state. China regards Taiwan as rebel-held territory.
The Kurds are claiming that Turkey is now supporting the Islamic State, a claim that Turkey strongly denies. As the battle for the Syrian town of Kobani continues, the Kurds now claim that the town is being attacked from forces coming from inside Turkish territory. The US has asked Turkey to support efforts to defeat the IS, but the Turks strongly oppose the government of President Assad in Syria. Since the IS is fighting Assad, the Turks believe that “the enemy of my enemy is my friend.” Moreover, the Turks oppose any moves that may strengthen the Kurds since the Turks fear Kurdish demands for an independent state, much of which would be carved out of Turkish territory. The different interests place the Turks in square opposition to US policy, a clear disagreement among the two allies.
The Islamic State (IS) has attracted adherents from all over the globe. The numbers and origins of the people are difficult to track, but Spiegel has attempted to document the movements of people to Iraq and Syria from 2011-2014. Their information (which should be taken as only a rough estimate) is portrayed graphically.
The Grand Mosque in Kano, the biggest city in the Muslim north of Nigeria, was bombed by Boko Haram. The mosque is associated with Emir of Kano Muhammad Sanusi II, Nigeria’s second most senior Muslim cleric who has recently urged his followers to take up arms against Boko Haram. The attack reflects a growing boldness on the part of Boko Haram and the continued inability of the Nigerian government to address the terror threat.
The Grand Mosque of Kano
The U.N. Committee Against Torture issued its report on US adherence to the U.N. Convention Against Torture, which took effect in 1987 and the United States ratified in 1994. The report was highly critical of allegations of police brutality and the excessive use of force by law enforcement officers in the US. The report also criticized US military practices and the illegal detention of persons in the facility at Guantanamo.
OPEC, the Organization of Oil Exporting Countries, has decided not to cut its production from 30 million barrels of oil a day. The decision immediately put downward pressure on oil prices which have gone from about $110 a barrel to about $70 a barrel. The downward pressure has benefited consumers, but other oil producers have been substantially hurt. Those oil exporters with large populations, such as Venezuela, Indonesia, and Nigeria, have seen their oil revenues decline. The price cuts seem designed to put pressure on oil companies in the US that employ fracking processes since fracking requires prices of about $90 per barrel to be profitable. The oil price cut also harms Russia, a strong supporter of President Assad in Syria, whose government the Saudi Arabians fiercely oppose.
Greece has endured a 24-hour general strike as workers protested the continued austerity policies of the government. Those policies have been imposed by the European Union, the IMF, and the European Central Bank to bring down a large budget deficit. But unemployment rates in Greece hover around 26% as the country enters its sixth year of economic pain. This general strike is the first of several planned strikes for the future.
As many Americans eat Turkey today, we should remember that all societies have iconic dishes. The Atlanticgives a list and brief description of some national foods, some of which sound quite appetizing , while others, like snake soup, might be hard to try for the first time.
Reaction to the non-indictment of Officer Darren Wilson in Ferguson, MO in the killing of Michael Brown last August has been largely negative. But the international repercussions of the incident have been quite damaging to the US’s reputation. It is difficult to get a representative sample of opinions from overseas, but a small sampling of the reactions suggests that the US is no longer regarded as the paragon of human rights. The event has clearly diminished America’s “soft” power. France’s Justice Minister Christiane Taubira quoted Bob Marley’s song, “I Shot the Sheriff” in a tweet: “Kill them before they grow.”
While protests are going on in the US, the Hong Kong Government is trying to remove protesters from the streets. The negotiations between the government and the protesters have yielded no agreement, and the protests are entering a new phase. Apparently the protesters are resorting to social media and trying a form of “mobile” protests, moving from street to street. The cat-and-mouse game will definitely tax both sides.
We’ve noted earlier that there have been a number of incidents between NATO and Russian forces lately. Generally speaking, these incidents are tests of both capability and will. At least that is what intended. The danger of these types of incidents is that they could mistakenly escalate due to some error or miscalculation. If you’re keeping score, the chart below gives a tally of the incidents that we know about. I am certain that there are many more that have not been reported. It’s a risky game that both sides are playing.
The Turkish president, Recep Tayyip Erdoğan, has stated that “[o]ur religion [Islam] has defined a position for women: motherhood”. The speech has ignited a firestorm of criticism within Turkey. Later in the speech he stated that “What women need is to be able to be equivalent, rather than equal. Because equality turns the victim into an oppressor and vice versa.” The comments follow similar comments made by the President and some of his advisers in recent days. Over the last few years, many in Turkey have protested what they perceive to be a growing authoritarianism in the Erdogan administration.
The P5+1 and Iran failed to reach an agreement on the Iranian nuclear program today, but all sides agreed to extend the negotiation period by 7 months. It is hard to interpret how close the two sides were to an agreement since details of the negotiations have been sparse. But the extension is a good sign since the alternative was to confess that an agreement was not possible. The extension poses a political problem for the US since it is clear that there are elements in the US Congress that would prefer to impose more stringent sanctions, and any move in that direction would definitely scuttle the possibility of an agreement.
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