World Politics News   Articles for World Politics Course

Israel and Hezbollah are exchanging fire across the Golan Heights. Many analysts believe that the Hezbollah attack on the Israeli army convoy that killed two Israeli soldiers was in retaliation for an Israeli attack last month that killed six Hezbollah fighters as well as an Iranian General.  It does not appear at this time that either side wishes the violence to escalate, but the situation in the Heights is so volatile that any violence contains great risks.

This post is clearly a case of too much information.  But, as noted in an earlier post, 80 people in the world have as much wealth as the bottom 50% of the global population.  I am sure, however, that many readers wondered who these people were–just in case they happened to be next door neighbors.  Check out how many on the list are men, and how many are from the US.  And think about how long the list would be if I were to list the 3.5 billion people at the bottom.  So here is the list:

1.  Bill Gates, $76 billion, USA, Tech

2.  Carlos Slim Helu, $72 billion, Mexico, Telecom

3.  Amancio Ortega,  $64 billion, Spain,  Retail

4.  Warren Buffett, $58 billion, USA,  Finance

5.  Larry Ellison,  $48 billion, USA,  Tech

6.  Charles Koch,  $40 billion,  USA,  Diversified

7.  David Koch, $40 billion, USA, Diversified

8.  Sheldon Adelson, $38 billion, USA,  Entertainment

9.  Christy Walton, $37 billion, USA,  Retail

10.  Jim Walton, $35 billion, USA,  Retail

11.  Liliane Bettencourt, $35 billion, France, Product

12.  Stefan Persson, $34 billion, Sweden, Retail

13.  Alice Walton, $34 billion,  USA, Retail

14.  S. Robson Walton, $34 billion, USA, Retail

15.  Bernard Arnault, $34 billion, France, Luxury

16.  Michael Bloomberg, $33 billion, USA, Finance

17.  Larry Page, $32 billion, USA, Tech

18.  Jeff Bezos, $32 billion, USA, Retail

19.  Sergey Brin, $32 billion, USA, Tech

20.  Li Ka-shing, $31 billion, Hong Kong, Diversified

21.  Mark Zuckerberg, $29 billion, USA, Tech

22.  Michele Ferrero, $27 billion, Italy, Food

23.  Aliko Dangote, $25 billion, Nigeria, Commodities

24.  Karl Albrecht, $25 billion, Germany, Retail

25.  Carl Icahn, $25 billion, USA, Finance

26.  George Soros, $23 billion, USA, Finance

27.  David Thomson, $23 billion, Canada, Media

28.  Lui Che Woo, $22 billion, Hong Kong, Entertainment

29.  Dieter Schwarz, $21 billion, Germany, Retail

30.  Alwaleed Bin Talal Al-saud, $20 billion, Saudi Arabia, Finance

31.  Forrest Mars Jr., $20 billion, USA,  Food

32.  Jacqueline Mars, $20 billion, USA,  Food

33.  John Mars, $20 billion, USA, Food

34.  Jorge Paulo Lemann, $20 billion, Brazil, Drinks

35.  Lee Shau Kee, $20 billion, Hong Kong, Diversified

36.  Steve Ballmer, $19 billion, USA, Tech

37.  Theo Albrecht Jr., $19 billion, Germany, Retail

38.  Leonardo Del Vecchio,$19 billion, Italy, Luxury

39.  Len Blavatnik, $19 billion, USA, Diversified

40.  Alisher Usmanov, $19 billion, Russia, Extractives

41.  Mukesh Ambani, $19 billion, India, Extractives

42.  Masayoshi Son, $18 billion, Japan, Telecom

43.  Michael Otto, $18 billion, Germany, Retail

44.  Phil Knight, $18 billion, USA, Retail

45.  Tadashi Yanai, $18 billion, Japan, Retail

46.  Gina Rinehart, $18 billion, Australia, Extractives

47.  Mikhail Fridman, $18 billion, Russia, Extractives

48.  Michael Dell, $18 billion, USA, Tech

49.  Susanne Klatten, $17 billion, Germany, Cars

50.  Abigail Johnson, $17 billion, USA, Finance

51.  Viktor Vekselberg, $17 billion, Russia, Metals

52.  Lakshmi Mittal, $17 billion, India, Metals

53.  Vladimir Lisin, $17billion, Russia, Transport

54.  Cheng Yu-tung, $16 billion, Hong Kong, Diversified

55.  Joseph Safra,$16 billion, Brazil, Finance

56.  Paul Allen, $16 billion, USA, Tech

57.  Leonid Mikhelson,  $16 billion, Russia, Extractives

58.  Anne Cox Chambers, $16 billion, USA, Media

59.  Francois Pinault, $16 billion, France, Retail

60.  Iris Fontbona, $16 billion, Chile, Extractives

61.  Azim Premji, $15 billion, India, Tech

62.  Mohammed Al Amoudi, $15 billion, Saudi Arabia, Extractives

63.  Gennady Timchenko, $15 billion, Russia, Extractives

64.  Wang Jianlin, $15 billion, China, Real Estate

65.  Charles Ergen, $15 billion, USA,  Telecom

66.  Stefan Quandt, $15 billion, Germany,  Cars

67.  Germán Larrea Mota Velasco, $15 billion, Mexico, Extractives

68.  Harold Hamm, $15 billion, USA, Extractives

69.  Ray Dalio, $14 billion, USA, Finance

70.  Donald Bren, $14 billion, USA,  Real Estate

71.  Georg Schaeffler, $14 billion, Germany, Product

72.  Luis Carlos Sarmiento, $14 billion, Colombia, Finance

73.  Ronald Perelman,  $14 billion, USA, Finance

74.  Laurene Powell Jobs, $14 billion, USA, Entertainment

75.  Serge Dassault, $14 billion, France,  Aviation

76.  John Fredriksen, $14 billion, Cyprus, Transport

77.  Vagit Alekperov, $14 billion, Russia, Extractives

78.  John Paulson, $14 billion, USA, Finance

79.  Rupert Murdoch, $14 billion, USA, Media

80.  Ma Huateng, $13 billion, China, Tech

Today marks the 70th anniversary of the liberation of the Auschwitz concentration camp by Soviet troops in World War II.  Over a million people, most of them Jews, were killed in the camp as the Nazi government tried to implement its “Final Solution.”  The Holocaust marks the point at which the world began to rethink seriously its commitment to the idea of national sovereignty, deciding instead that some crimes are never simply an “internal” matter.

US President Obama visited Saudi Arabia  today to pay respects to the passing of Saudi King Abdullah.  Obama has to thread a difficult needle on US-Saudi relations, acknowledging the importance of Saudi Arabia to the global economy while at the same time recognizing Saudi Arabia’s role in global terrorist activities and its human rights abuses.

James Fallows has a very pointed essay in the Atlantic on the issue of the Iranian nuclear negotiations.  There will likely be a lot of discussion about stopping Iran from developing nuclear weapons as the negotiations continue and as Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu tries to apply pressure on the US Congress to implement additional sanctions on Iran.  Fallows’s point is very straightforward: neither the US or Israel has the ability to prevent Iran from developing nuclear weapons if it makes the decision to do so.

Alexis Tsipras, the most likely next Prime Minister of Greece, wasted no time in sending a message to Europe about how to interpret the victory of his party, Syriza, in the recent elections.  His first act after declaring victory at the polls was to lay flowers at a memorial commemorating 200 Greek communists killed by the Nazis in World War II.   The message was that Greece would no longer submit to the austerity programs designed in Germany.  Greece now has until June before it needs to pay back its loan to the European Union.  We’ll see if Germany allows Greece to renegotiate the terms of the payback.

US President Obama joined in India’s Republic Day ceremony, celebrating the adoption of the Indian constitution in 1950.  The event symbolized the importance that Obama is placing on US-Indian relations, and the hope that India will prove to be a reliable counterweight to Chinese influence in South and Southeast Asia.  Not coincidentally, Pakistani Chief of Army Staff, General Raheel Sharif, was in China at the same time deepening Chinese-Pakistani military relations.

As we all await the arrival of the snowstorm, here is a little background information on New England blizzards.  Enjoy the storm if you can!  (I will not ask any questions about this article on the quiz–just enjoy it)

The left-wing party, Syriza, won a decisive victory in the Greek elections even though it fell short of an outright Parliamentary majority.  Syriza took about 37% of the vote, far higher than predicted and crushing New Democracy, the party currently in power.   Syriza will try to renegotiate the terms of the financial support it has received from the European Union and the International Monetary Fund.  It will likely face stiff opposition from Germany against any easing of the austerity programs designed to reduce the Greek budget deficit.  It will be very interesting to see how the European stock markets interpret this election outcome tomorrow morning.

The US has decidedly changed its position on the Syrian civil war that has killed more than 200,000 civilians over the last three years.  Previously, the US had insisted that the current President, Bashar al-Assad, must be removed from office before any peace negotiations could begin.  Now the US accepts the fact that Assad will likely remain in power and has to be part of any negotiated agreement.  The change is due to a decision by the US that the Islamic State is a greater threat to the US than Assad, and it will now embrace the old balance of power adage that “an enemy of my enemy is my friend.”

At least 17 people were killed in a demonstration in celebration of the 4th anniversary of the “Arab Spring” revolution in Egypt.  Much of the optimism of that period has now dissipated in Egypt since Abdel Fattah al-Sisi was elected President last year.   al-Sisi has restored stability to Egypt after tumultuous years, but the price in the loss of human rights and freedom has been very high for many sectors of Egyptian society.

Ukrainian rebels have launched a missile attack on the city of Mariupol, a strategic access point to the Black Sea.   The attack signals the formal end of the tattered cease-fire, and an escalation in the crisis.   Taking the city would give the rebels a land route from eastern Ukraine into the Crimean peninsula, solidifying control over what Russian President Putin has termed “New Russia.”  It is unclear how the West will respond to this escalation.

The Brazilian states of Sao Paulo, Rio de Janeiro and Minas Gerais are suffering through the worst drought since the 1930s.   The water shortages threaten the economy of Brazil in powerful ways and it is not clear how the situation can be rectified.   Many industries will be unable to function unless the drought substantially eases up.  The loss  of one of the largest economies in the world would be a crippling blow to the global economy as a whole.

The violence perpetrated by the Islamic State has re-kindled Western fears of “radical Islam.”  The recent actions against Japanese hostages will likely inflame the debate further. The category of “radical Islam” is a meaningless one, but it refuses to go away.  The world, however, needs to figure out a way to address the issue of terrorist violence without conflating it with a religion.

The diplomacy behind Congress’s decision to invite Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu to deliver a message to Congress without informing the White House has taken a decidedly murky turn.  THe initial interpretation of the invitation was to buttress Israel’s desire for Congress to impose new sanctions on Iran in the hope that such sanctions would scuttle the current negotiations.  US Secretary of State Kerry countered this move by quoting the Israeli intelligence agency, Mossad, as believing that the sanctions would indeed end the negotiations.  Then Kerry persuaded the European Union to issue a statement warning against any new sanctions on Iran.  This convoluted diplomacy thus suggests that the invitation to Netanyahu was a deliberate attempt to undermine President Obama’s efforts to reach a negotiated settlement with Iran–in effect, the Congress working with a foreign leader to destroy a Presidential initiative.

There is evidence that the situation in eastern Ukraine is deteriorating to the point where a complete collapse of the cease-fire is likely.   Low level violence has been persistent between Ukrainian authorities and Russian-speaking separatists in the eastern part of the state, but there are signs that the separatists are mobilizing for a major offensive.  The Ukrainian army has not demonstrated either the capability or the will to resist further separatist moves.  Much will depend on how the outside world reacts to a renewed offensive.

For the second time while in office, US President Obama will visit India, signalling the importance of Indian ties to American foreign policy.  It is also Obama’s first meeting with the new Indian Prime Minister, Narendra Modi, who was once banned from the US for his role in anti-Muslim riots in Gujarat in 2002.   Significantly, the visit will also highlight the growing demographic interdependence of the two countries as the Indian-born population in the US continues to increase dramatically.  One can be sure, however, that the Chinese and the Pakistanis will be watching the visit very carefully.

King Abdullah of Saudi Arabia has died at age 90.  His half-brother, Prince Salman, is expected to succeed him so there is little likelihood of immediate turmoil in the kingdom.  But Saudi Arabia is a critical state in the Middle East, and King Abdullah oversaw one of the most dramatic transformations in the global petroleum market in recent months and there is no obvious end game to that gambit.  Moreover, the whole region is in turmoil, and any hint of instability in Saudi Arabia will have tremendous repercussions.

The European Central Bank has announced a presumably massive plan to purchase government and corporate bonds in Europe in an effort to flood the markets with extra money in the hope that the additional funds will stimulate economic growth and higher prices and wages.  The process is called “quantitative easing” and is the current policy of the US Federal Reserve and the Japanese Central Bank.  The process has had only limited success in both the US and Japan, and there are reasons to believe that it will be even less successful in the European economy.  Nonetheless, the plan is a signal of how serious the economic slowdown in Europe is.

Recent polls have indicated that the left-wing party, Syriza, is building a lead heading into Sunday’s elections in Greece.  Syriza has promised to end the policies of austerity that have depressed economic growth in Greece to levels worse than those of the Great Depression.  A Syriza victory would definitely change the political climate in Europe, but would also likely lead to great economic instability.

House Speaker John Boehner has invited Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu to give a speech to the US Congress on the security threat posed by Iran.   The White House was not contacted by the state of Israel about the visit nor did Speaker Boehner inform the White House about the invitation prior to it being proffered.  The invitation is a clear violation of standard protocol, and an indication that Speaker Boehner wishes to disrupt the negotiations between the West and Iran.  If the Congress passes stiffer sanctions against Iran, then the chances for a negotiated settlement on the Iranian nuclear program will diminish.

Speaking at the World Economic Forum at Davos, Switzerland, Ukrainian President Petro Poroshenko accused Russia of having 9,000 Russian troops on Ukrainian soil.  There is a cease-fire between Ukrainian forces and Russian-speaking separatists in Eastern Ukraine, but it is very fragile and frequently broken.  Russia adamantly denies the charges, and there seems to be little chance of some accommodation being reached.  The European Union, however, seems to be more invested in addressing the threat posed by Russia than it has been in the past, and such pressure may cause Russia to rethink its calculations.

The political situation in Yemen is deteriorating quickly.  The country has been plagued for many years by the Houthi separatist movement opposed to the government of President Abd-Rabbu Mansour Hadi who has been a strong ally of the United States.  Yemen is also plagued by the power of al-Qaida in the Arabian Peninsula (Aqap), the group that took responsibility for the recent terrorist attack in Paris.  If the separatists manage to dislodge President Hadi, the change will be a significant setback for US interests  in the Persian Gulf region.

The anti-Islamic movement known as Pegida has grown dramatically in Germany in recent months.  The movement mirrors the growth of similar groups throughout Europe, but its emergence in Germany has been quite rapid.  There seems to be a decided lack of leadership in Europe on the issue of these hate groups:  unless they are clearly and openly condemned by a range of social and political leaders, the groups  achieve a de facto legitimacy by virtue of their numbers.

An election is scheduled for Sunday in Greece, and the results of that election may have significant effects on the rest of Europe.   The polls suggest that the left-wing party, Syriza, will do quite well in the election, and, if that turns out to be the case, it is likely that Syriza will try to renegotiate the terms of the austerity programs imposed on Greece by the IMF and the European Union.  That possibility will unnerve investors in the European economy, not a good outcome for the continent which is experiencing extremely low growth rates.

It’s official: 2014 was the warmest year recorded since human beings started keeping records in the 1880s.  Although land temperatures were not the highest, and although it was not the warmest year on record for the contiguous US, the overall land and ocean temperatures across the planet were the highest.

Oxfam has just published a report on growing income inequality in the world and the results are depressing.  Last year, 85 individuals at the top held the same wealth as the bottom half of the global population (3.5 billion people).  This year, it took just 80 people at the top to equal the bottom half.  The trend is clear and it is accelerating.