Another video has been banned by another government. This time the video is a documentary about air pollution in China which has banned its viewing on You Tube. The video, “Under the Dome,” was produced bu Chai Jing, a former news anchor. The problem of air pollution in some parts of China is hardly a secret and the Chinese government has taken strong steps to try to mitigate the problem. Nonetheless, the documentary is apparently considered to be a threat to the political and social stability of Chinese society. It is a long video (about 1 hour and 43 minutes) and it has English subtitles for those of us who cannot speak Chinese.
Today marked the 50th anniversary of the Civil Rights march in Selma, Alabama. The people who walked across the bridge over the Alabama River were protesting against an injunction against their efforts to promote voter registration in the state. The protesters were met with profound police force, and the brutality against the protesters showed America and the world the ugly violence of racial discrimination. The event ushered in the Civil Rights Act of 1965 and is in my mind one of the most important moments in American (and world) history. President Obama delivered a brilliant speech marking the event (I will not ask any questions about the content of the speech).
Last year Saudi Arabia sentenced Raif Badawi to 1,000 lashes and 10 years in jail for “insulting Islam”. Badawi is a blogger and he received the first 50 lashes of his sentence last January. There was a storm of criticism leveled against the Kingdom for its conduct–criticism which it rejected as an intrusion into its internal affairs.
Social media has transformed politics in ways that are hard to analyze. We all suspect that the changes are dramatic but the changes are difficult to measure because of the decentralized nature of the medium. The Islamic State, however, seems to be quite savvy in using social media, and it has broadcast its message to what think may be a large audience. Some researchers have gone through Twitter accounts and have determined that the Islamic State used perhaps 46,000 Twitter accounts over a period of time.
Even though most of us are oblivious to much of what goes on in financial markets, it would be hard not to notice that many government bonds in Europe are being sold in Europe at negative interest rates–almost $1.9 trillion worth of bonds. Essentially, people are paying governments for sovereign debt, exactly the opposite of what usually happens when governments pay interest to people who purchase bonds. The negative interest rates are the result of a very deliberate strategy of central banks. They are flooding financial markets with bonds to force people to seek positive interest rates by purchasing corporate equities (stocks). The logic is that by forcing people to buy stocks in order to make (and not lose) money, they will be stimulating the corporations to make productive investments. Of course, the strategy also rewards people who have the money to spare to buy stocks–not a very large proportion of the population.
Petrobas, the Brazilian national oil company, is one of the largest oil companies in the world. It is also deeply involved in political corruption that is shaking the Brazilian political system. Many top governmental officials are accused of taking bribes in order to facilitate to company’s operations. The scandal is not only destabilizing Brazilian politics, it is also slowing down the economy by creating tremendous uncertainty among foreign investors. It is hard to see how President Rousseff can avoid being weakened by the crisis.
One cannot view the Israeli-US disagreement over the Iranian nuclear program in isolation. The US is increasingly dependent upon Iranian forces to carry on the fight against the Islamic State in Iraq. The two states do not talk directly to each other, but there is close coordination between the American air forces and the Iranian ground forces. As this alliance deepens, it can only add to the apprehensions of Israel and Saudi Arabia about an Iranian rapprochement.
We have had several discussions in class about freedom of speech and the circumstances in which speech can or should be curtailed. A documentary on the vicious rape and murder of a young Indian woman has been banned in India, and India has asked You Tube to remove the documentary. The video shows one of the convicted rapists claiming innocence of a crime because the victim fought back. The controversy over showing the video revolves around the extent to which speech can gratuitously defame a larger community. The documentary is below.
It seems increasingly likely that Japan’s Prime Minister, Shinzo Abe, will seek to change in some way, Article 9 of the Japanese constitution which prohibits an offensive military capability for the country. That clause was adopted in the wake of strong fears throughout Asia that a rebuilt Japan would also carry on a militarist tradition. Since the end of the war, Japan has notably carried out a strong pacifist policy which has begun to weaken as China has gotten stronger. If Japan is to rearm, it needs to do so in a way that persuades its neighbors that aggressive behavior will no be an adjunct to the change in military policy.
Initial indications are that the Democrats in the US Senate have decided not to work with Senate Republicans on fast-tracking new sanctions on Iran, suggesting that Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu’s speech to Congress did not yield any immediate support for the Israeli desire to end negotiations. Senate Republicans do not have enough votes to pass such a measure without some Democratic support. There are also some indications that Some in Congress were not pleased by the way Prime Minister Netanyahu presented some of his facts concerning the nature of the current negotiations.
The assassination of Boris Nemtsov conjured up ghosts of the assassination of one of Stalin’s colleagues in 1934, Sergei Kirov. Although Kirov was ostensibly a colleague of Josef Stalin, he was also someone who challenged Stalin by his popularity. There are some unusual similarities in the assassinations, but perhaps the most compelling parallels is the likelihood that Nemtsov’s death, like Kirov’s, will never be fully explained.
The rise of the Islamic State poses a serious problem for the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia. Since the IS has proclaimed its caliphate, it needs to secure control of the holy cities of Mecca, Medina, and Jerusalem to secure legitimacy. Both Mecca and Medina are under Saudi control, and the Sunni Muslims that control Saudi Arabia are largely under the sway of a Wahhabist interpretation of Islam, an interpretation that is closely related to the interpretation endorsed by the Islamic State. Over time, we shall have to see how many Saudi Arabians are attracted to the idea of joining the IS caliphate.
A prominent critic of Russian President Putin, Boris Nemtsov, was shot dead in the streets of Moscow. Nemtsov had been a leader of the democratic opposition to President Putin and was one of a handful of critics who dared to stay in Russia. The assailant was not captured and his identity is not known. President Putin condemned the killing and promised to apprehend the assassin.
In another assassination, Avijit Roy, a prominent secular blogger in Bangladesh was hacked to death by a crowd armed with machetes. Roy wrote on gay and lesbian issues and was a critic of religious fundamentalism. He had received death threats because of his anti-religious views. Bangladesh is ruled as a constitutional democracy, but Islam is considered the state religion of the country. There have been several previous attacks on secular bloggers.
The US and Cuba have been engaged in diplomatic discussions over the few months and it appears as if the two countries may finally break the impasse that has frozen relations for over 55 years. Apparently the last stumbling bloc is the designation of Cuba as a sponsor of terrorism by the US. There is actually very little evidence that Cuba has been involved in any foreign activities since the 1980s. The change is long overdue.
Climate scientists have been puzzling over the slowdown in the increase of global surface temperatures over the last fifteen years. Even though CO2 levels have steadily increased, global surface temperatures have not increased at the same rate. The hiatus has led many to question the validity of the predictions concerning climate change. New studies indicate that the hiatus can be explained by natural variability, largely the temperatures of the oceans. Many scientists suspect that global warming is in fact occurring primarily in ocean temperatures, a change that would not necessarily be captured in land surface temperatures.
Greek Finance Minister Giannis Varoufakis has given an interview to Spiegel. The interview is wide-ranging and Varoufakis explains in specific detail why he believes that Greece should have some of its debts erased. He is also very forceful on why he believes that austerity is the wrong policy for Greece right now. Varoufakis is becoming somewhat of a rock star in Europe right now, even though his efforts have not been notably successful.
The Islamic State has released a video showing extensive destruction of historical artifacts in the Mosul Museum. The Islamic State claimed that it was carrying out the religious mandate forbidding idol worship. Most of the artifacts reflected pre-Islamic art and the museum had been designated as a world historical site by the UN. The sculptures were destroyed by jackhammers and sledgehammers.
Egyptian leader, Gen. Abdel Fattah el-Sisi, has called for a joint Arab combat force to take on the Islamic State. The call comes amid signs of deterioration throughout the region. The call resonates strongly with other Arab states who fear the Islamic State, as well as the US who would prefer not to introduce large numbers of ground troops into Syria and Iraq. The problem is that it is unlikely that the Arab militaries could carry out such a difficult and dangerous operation without jeopardizing their domestic support.
Many of us have been wondering why this winter (and last) has been so miserably cold. Fortunately, some smart people have been intrigued by the question as well, and some of the tentative evidence suggests that climate change is responsible (which means that the change may not be ephemeral—aaaargh!!!!). Apparently a warming Arctic (which is not questioned at all by anyone, even climate change deniers) changes the flow of the jet stream, making it weaker and more “wavy.” This allows really cold air from the arctic to dip down and end up right on my toes. I think it is time to move Mount Holyoke College to Aruba.
Novaya Gazeta, an independent investigative newspaper in Russia has published a document that purports to show a Russian plan to annex Crimea that was drawn up before the Maidan protests forced the ouster of former President Yanukovich. Russian President Putin has often claimed that support for the Russian-speaking separatists in Crimea was granted only after what he termed a NATO-inspired coup d’etat threw out the Russian-leaning Yanukovich. The document,if authentic, challenges that narrative.
The dispute between Russia and the West has unquestionably weakened both sides: Russia, by the negative effects of the sanctions on its economy, and the West, by reducing its credibility to resist Russian moves. As Russia has moved closer to China to fill the financial gaps caused by the sanctions, it has become clear that China is benefiting tremendously from access to Russian resources and the growing dependence of Russia on the Chinese economy. In the long run, China and Russia are more likely to be competitors rather than allies in the balance of power. Ultimately, China will profit greatly from the Ukrainian dispute.
The troika (the IMF, the European Union, and the European Central Bank) have accepted Greece’s proposal for a four month extension of the bail0out program. The Greek government has claimed some victories in reversing the austerity program, but it is hard to see what those victories are. According to Reuters:
The Greek letter pledged not to reverse ongoing or completed privatisations, and to ensure that the fight against what the government calls the humanitarian crisis caused by austerity “has no negative fiscal effects”.
The Greeks apparently decided that the possible bankruptcy of most of its major banks was not a price it was willing to pay for reduced austerity. It remains to be seen how damaged the Greek government will be as its public assesses the outcome of the dispute.
The Managing Director of the International Monetary Fund, Christine Legarde, has criticized laws which restrict the participation of women in economic affairs. Such laws limit the opportunities for economic growth in many countries, and the IMF has studies which document the lost economic potential. Legarde’s comments are yet another example of how liberal politics dovetails with liberal economics.
The Guardian has published a cache of diplomatic cables that were leaked to Al Jazeera after verifying that the cables were authentic. The cables cover a number of different issues, but perhaps the most explosive was a cable to South Africa from the Israeli intelligence unit, the Mossad. The cable indicates that Iran was “not performing the activity necessary to produce weapons”. The significance of this cable was that it was written a few weeks after Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu gave a speech to the UN General Assembly asserting that Iran was less than a year away from producing a nuclear bomb. It is unlikely that Netanyahu was unaware of the conclusions of his own intelligence unit.
Russia recently celebrated “Defense of the Fatherland” day. In the parade was this mock-up of a missile, inscribed with the message “To be personally delivered to Obama.” Those Russians–what a bunch of cards! It’s interesting that the hammer and sickle survives.
The Greeks did not finish their proposal to the troika so there’s no news to report. On the other hand, there is parody of the negotiations. Check “Settings” to get English subtitles if you don’t speak German.
Every year the world’s largest human migration occurs in China. It occurs around the time of the Chinese New Year as people go home to celebrate the holiday. The movement of people is simply amazing and the traveling creates all sorts of traffic jams in virtually every mode of transportation. The Chinese web giant, Baidu, has created a real-time heat map of the movement of people and you can see it here.
新年快乐
Graeme Wood has written an article for The Atlanticwhich has generated a lot of discussion. It is entitled “What ISIS Really Wants” and it traces the religious basis for the Islamic State’s ideology. It is an extraordinary essay and is worthy of consideration. To give an idea of Wood’s argument in the essay, consider this brief excerpt:
“In fact, much of what the group does looks nonsensical except in light of a sincere, carefully considered commitment to returning civilization to a seventh-century legal environment, and ultimately to bringing about the apocalypse.”
As you read the article, keep in mind the words of Sun Tzu:
“If you know the enemy and know yourself, you need not fear the result of a hundred battles. If you know yourself but not the enemy, for every victory gained you will also suffer a defeat. If you know neither the enemy nor yourself, you will succumb in every battle.”― Sun Tzu, The Art of War (likely around the 6th Century BCE)
India’s Prime Minister Narendra Modi visited the disputed territory of Arunachal Pradesh. His visited elicited a strong protest by China which also claims parts of the territory. India and China have an uneasy relationship, although both sides claim to be trying to repair relations. But two powerful countries abutting each other often find it very difficult to reach consensus on disputed territorial matters–such matters often become symbols easily hijacked by strong nationalist emotions.
World Politics News 