There have been protests in Lebanon since the middle of July. The immediate precipitate for the protests is garbage: it has been piling up in many areas of Beirut since the only landfill for the city was closed since it was filled to capacity. This part of the protests is called the “You Stink” movement. But, as is usually the case with large protests, there are deeper causes, fundamentally rooted in the gridlock of Lebanese politics. Lebanon is running short of cash and may not be able to pay the salaries of its workers and may not even be able to service its international debts. The collapse of such an important country in the Middle East would be highly destabilizing to the region.
Speaking of garbage, researchers are in the Pacific Ocean to assess the Great Pacific Garbage Patch, a concentration of garbage that some believe to be twice the size of the state of Texas. According to the Guardian:
“More than five trillion pieces of plastic, collectively weighing nearly 269,000 tonnes, are floating in the world’s oceans, causing damage throughout the food chain, new research has found.
Data collected by scientists from the US, France, Chile, Australia and New Zealand suggests a minimum of 5.25tn plastic particles in the oceans, most of them “micro plastics” measuring less than 5mm.”
The researchers are exploring ideas on how to capture the plastic and remove it from the oceans. Eventually, that plastic will somehow end up in the food chain unless it is removed.
Researchers have begun to measure what we have long suspected but could never really prove: the link between civil and international violence and the environment. Measurements from space confirm that as civil unrest deepens, the air gets cleaner because there is reduced economic activity. Satellites can actually measure the level of pollution and correlate it with increased unrest. While this particular correlation seems strangely beneficial, the net effects of civil and international unrest are more typically bad for the environment.
Thousands of migrants rushed police lines at the Macedonian border in an attempt to enter Serbia. Once in Serbia, the migrants would have an opportunity to move to other members of the European Union under the terms of the Schengen Plan. The migrants had been waiting for days and were without food, water, and shelter. The police attempted to stop them with stun grenades, but the mass of people was unstoppable. In the Mediterranean, the Italian coast guard rescued almost 3,000 refugees. The pressure on the EU is getting more intense as the situation of the refugees becomes more desperate.
Brazilian President Dilma Rousseff is currently the subject of an impeachment movement as the Brazilian economy sinks slowly into a recession. By far, however, the overwhelming issue in Brazilian politics is the issue of corruption. Rousseff is in her second term and her popularity has declined into single digits. The combination of a weakened economy and a weakened President is deadly as Rousseff is unlikely to be able to take effective steps to stimulate the economy. The global economy needs the emerging market economies like Brazil’s to regain the dynamism to bring global economic growth.
Stock markets all over the world are having a really rough time. It’s been almost 5 years of growth in the markets, so it is not a great surprise. But the global economy is in for a rough ride.
The recent disaster in Tianjin has raised serious questions about environmental safety in China. There have been unsubstantiated reports of high levels of cyanide lingering around the site of the explosion and evidence of massive fish kills in surrounding waters. But there is little question that China must face its environmental protection issues more openly: according to Berkeley Earth, an NGO that has done extensive monitoring of China’s air pollution, breathing Beijing’s air is equivalent to smoking 40 cigarettes a day.
North and South Korea have exchanged artillery fire across the Demilitarized Zone. The North initiated the attacks to protest the joint military maneuvers between South Korea and the US. But both sides have been waging an intense propaganda war that have aggravated tensions. These exchanges are not unusual on the Koran peninsula. Typically, they do not lead to wider conflicts, but every time they happen there is always a danger of one side or the other making a miscalculation or a mistake.
According to the US National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), July was the warmest month recorded since records started being kept in 1880. According to the Los Angeles Times:
“The new record was fueled by the oceans. Across the globe, the average sea surface temperature in July was 62.85 degrees F, 0.13 degrees higher than the previous monthly record (set in July 2014) and 1.35 degrees higher than the average for the 20th century. All 10 of the hottest months for sea surface temperatures have occurred since April 2014, the NOAA report noted.”
Land temperatures were also very high. The situation is likely to get worse as the el Niño strengthens in the winter.
Greek Prime Minister Alexis Tsipras has resigned in an attempt to form a new government which might give him more support that his bitterly divided party, Syriza. Tsipras has been forced to back down from his earlier hard-line positions vis-a-vis the troika, and many members of his party consider him a traitor. Without solid party support, Tsipras will be unable to govern effectively. He is hoping that new elections will give him a more effective political base. The risk is quite high, but Tsipras likely does not have much of a choice. In a month we will have the decision of the Greek voters.
Emerging markets are one of the most vulnerable of all in the process of globalization. Over the last few years, emerging markets have borrowed much money in dollars, driven by the fact that interest rates in the US are so incredibly low (essentially zero). Now, however, as the Federal Reserve Bank has begun to make noises about “normalizing” interest rates, raising them slightly in order to prevent an outbreak of inflation that could be a result of the easy money policy of the recent past. The threat of higher interest rates, however, has led to a flood of money leaving the emerging markets–a situation that would threaten their stability. The Financial Times has estimated that the outflow of money from the emerging markets into the US has reached $1 trillion–a very dangerous outcome if it persists. Many of these countries will be forced to devalue their currency, a process that has started with China, Vietnam, and Turkey.
The developing el Niño could be the strongest ever recorded (although, to be fair, records only go back to 1950). The temperature of the eastern Pacific along the South American coast rises during an el Niño event with consequences for many other areas of the world. If California is lucky, it will get heavier rains (although those rains will bring the probability of mudslides). Australia and Indonesia will likely experience drought. In the US east, wind shears from the event will most likely minimize the frequency of hurricanes in the Atlantic.
The refugee crisis in Europe affects all states. Bulgaria is trying to cope with a large influx of refugees, but its resources are stretched quite thin. Bulgaria is building a fence (as is Turkey and Hungary) but such efforts merely make the transit of refugees more dangerous, not less likely. Such barriers also increase the ability of traffickers to take advantage of these vulnerable people: a lucrative activity for the traffickers, but a tragedy for the refugees and migrants. Europe has to come up with a more systematic response to this crisis.
Glaciers in the Tian Shan (in Chinese, “Celestial Mountains”) mountain range in Central Asia are melting at a faster rate than glaciers in other parts of the world, and by 2050 these glaciers could be gone. The glaciers currently supply many countries in the region with their only supply of fresh water, and the demise of the glaciers will likely trigger off competition among the states (Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan and northwest China) for water. By the middle of the century, access to water will likely be the major cause of conflict in the world.
Tian Shan Mountain Range from Space
Earlier estimates of how many refugees are seeking asylum in Germany appear to have been far too low. New information suggests that Germany is likely to receive nearly 750,000 refugees this year, primarily from Syria, Eritrea and Sudan. The number is shocking for a country of 80 million. But in percentage terms, Sweden is likely to receive a far higher number. Other European countries take in far lower percentages but the more important point is the extent to which people are fleeing desperate conditions in their home countries. Unfortunately, there are many in Germany who resent the refugees and are burning down the facilities made available to house them.
Bernie Sanders has made an impression on American electoral politics, but there is another left-wing politician who is making a mark. Jeremy Corbyn represents a left-wing tradition in British politics that essentially ended during the government of Margaret Thatcher (much as left wing politics in the US died during the coterminous government of Ronald Reagan) and he is making a bid for leadership of the Labour Party. Those who oppose Corbyn fear that he may reintroduce Clause IV of the Labour Party Constitution which reads:
To secure for the workers by hand or by brain the full fruits of their industry and the most equitable distribution thereof that may be possible upon the basis of the common ownership of the means of production, distribution, and exchange, and the best obtainable system of popular administration and control of each industry or service.
Perhaps left-wing politics are making a comeback in the US and Europe.
The Erawan Shrine in Bangkok, Thailand was destroyed by an improvised explosive device. At this time, no one has taken responsibility for the blast which killed 19 and wounded 123. The shrine houses a statue of Phra Phrom, the Thai representation of the Hindu creation god Brahma. The bombing was calculated to cause the maximum number of casualties and will undoubtedly affect Thailand’s reputation as a tourist destination.
Phra Phrom
Russian President Putin is on a three day visit to Crimea, the part of Ukraine annexed by Russia in April 2014, an annexation still not recognized by many countries in the world His visit was accompanied by a resurgence of violence as Russian-speaking separatists try to tighten their control over eastern Ukraine. Poland’s new President Andrzej Duda will visit Estonia next week and he is expected to push hard for NATO troops to be stationed in what he terms “front-line” states (the Baltic states and Poland) to contain Russian aggressive moves. The situation in eastern and central Europe is definitely getting more tense.
South Sudan’s President Salva Kiir has refused to sign a peace agreement that was forged in Ethiopia. The agreement was designed to end a civil war in the young country (South Sudan was created four years ago after a secession movement from Sudan). Apparently, Kiir believes that the agreement gives too much authority to the rebel leader, Riek Machar. The civil war has been going on since 2013 and has displaced about 1.6 million people. South Sudan is plagued by food insecurity affecting nearly 5 million people and outbreaks of disease such as malaria which has decimated the country.
The alliances among the states and non-states actors in the region of the world we call the Middle East are extraordinarily complex and susceptible to minor (and sometimes major) shifts. There is a remarkable website called “Information is Beautiful” which dedicates itself to the graphic display of information. One of their graphics conveys the alliances in the Middle East (including major non-Middle East countries) and shows how these alliances cross all sorts of regional and ideological divides. You can access the graphic here.
An organization called Trucost is dedicated to assessing the costs of environmental damage as part of the normal economic process. Unfortunately, mainstream economics does not factor environmental damage into the costs of a product, instead referring to these costs as “externalities” since those costs are generally not included in the price of a product (and therefore affecting the profitability of a product). Turcost treats environmental damage as an “unpriced natural capital costs” and categorizes them in terms of six categories: water use, greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions, waste, air pollution, land and water pollution, and land use. In its most recent study Trucost estimates that the unpriced natural capital costs of some key industrial products is about US$7.3 trillion or almost 8% of the value of the total gross global product. Needless to say, if companies were forced to include the price of environmental damage in their prices, many companies would not be profitable. The important thing to remember, however, is that ultimately these costs have got to be paid, either in terms of tax monies used to clean up the mess or in terms of lives lost due to degradation in the ability of the planet to support life.
For a good example of how this plays out, one need only to look at the recent toxic waste spill in the Animas River in Colorado. The US Environmental Protection Agency caused the spill because it was trying to clean up a mess made earlier by a mining company that not longer works the mine. The mine was governed by the General Mining Law of 1872 which permits companies to avoid paying market value for the minerals they intend to mine and which does not include environmental protection as an obligation to work the mine. Public land being used for private profit without adequate protection for the public interest is clearly a bad idea.
Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu has appointed Danny Danon as Israel’s Ambassador to the United Nations. Danon has long opposed the two-state solution and does not support the creation of a Palestinian state. Further, according to the New York Times, he:
“has called for Israel to annex all West Bank settlements, annul the Oslo Peace Accords and allow Jews to pray on the Temple Mount. He has described the Obama administration’s criticism of Israeli construction in East Jerusalem as racist and said the United States is not an honest broker between Israel and the Palestinians.”
In short, Ambassador Danon rejects the US bargaining position on the Israeli-Palestinian conflict and the official position of the UN and the European Union on the terms of an ultimate settlement to the conflict.
46 years ago, a defining moment in the history of the world (please pardon my hyperbole) occurred: The Woodstock Music and Art Festival. Perhaps as many as 400,000 people attended the festival (unfortunately, I did not). Many artists made breakthrough performances and became forever identified with the movements of the 1960s (Peace, Civil Rights, LGBT, and Women’s). It all occurred on Max Yasgur’s Farm in Bethel, New York.
The Guitar God, Jimi Hendrix (who served as a paratrooper in the US Army before he became a star)
Jefferson Airplane with lead singer, Grace Slick (who named her first child, God) and who had the bluest eyes in the universe.
Country Joe and the Fish
Richie Havens
And, they were there although they did not perform the iconic song, “Woodstock”, which was written by Joni Mitchell who also performed at Woodstock, Crosby, Stills, and Nash.
US officials are reporting that an American hostage was raped and killed by the leader of the Islamic State, Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi. Kayla Mueller went to Turkey as a humanitarian aid worker to aid Syrian refugees before she was abducted by the Islamic State. The report follows information concerning the systematic use of rape by ISIS, particularly against Yazidi women. Indeed, the information suggests that ISIS has a “theology” justifying rape of those ISIS considers to be infidels. The report will undoubtedly inflame US sentiments against the Islamic State–I suspect the “war on terror” will ratchet up soon: release of such information always serves a political purpose.
The US opened its Embassy in Cuba today, ending years and years of diplomatic isolation. US Secretary of State was at the opening, and his speech was refreshingly honest: he acknowledged the US role in fostering the hostility between the two countries, as in the Bay of Pigs invasion in 1961. Relations between the US and Cuba are still fraught with disagreements, such as the US naval base in Guatanamo which the US still maintains despite Cuba requests that it be closed. But the opening of relations is a necessary first step.
Berkeley Earth, a research organization based in Berkeley, California, released a report that estimated that about 4,400 Chinese people die every day because of the effects of air pollution. According to The Times of India: “about three-eighths of the Chinese population breathe air that would be rated ‘unhealthy’ by United States standards.” The Chinese government has tried very hard to reduce air pollution in the country, but there are economic interests in the country that rely heavily on production techniques that are oblivious to environmental quality.
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