Archive for the ‘World Politics’ Category
The Economist Intelligence Unit is one of the most highly regarded research institutions in the world. They have just published their top ten global risks for April 2016. Apparently, the unit regards the election of Donald Trump as US President as a higher risk threat than jihadi terrorism. The report “….calculates risk intensity on a 25-point scale, taking into account both the probability that an event will occur and the impact it will have if it comes to pass.” Here is the list:
April 2016
The Obama Administration has finally declared that Daesh (the Islamic State) is committing “genocide” against Christians, Yazidis, and Shia Muslims in Syria and Iraq. The use of the actual word, genocide, identifies the atrocities being committed as war crimes, a designation that triggers international responsibilities to take action. The last time the US used the word was in 2004 for actions taken in Darfur. Sadly, there is little evidence that the US or the international community will take effective action against Daesh. Genocide is still occurring in Darfur.
Syrian Kurds have unilaterally declared their own federal region within Syria, pre-empting international action and/or forcing the hand of the international community. The US, Turkey, and Syria all oppose the action, but it represents an effort by the Syrian Kurds to get some recognition for their efforts against Daesh. As the map below indicates, however, the land controlled by the Syrian Kurds is not contiguous and in the area north of Aleppo the majority population is Arab, not Kurdish. The action will undoubtedly complicate the negotiations, but it will also force the negotiators to redouble their efforts.
A few days ago, one of my posts indicated that one of the ideas floating around in the Syrian cease-fire negotiations was a decentralized Syria, with various regions getting a high degree of autonomy from the central government. Federal governments are difficult to manage, particularly after a civil war, but it seems clear that the Syrian Kurds have wholeheartedly embraced the idea. Needless to say, the Turks are not at all happy about that prospect and it would be difficult to implement. But the key is whether the Syrian Kurds can actually take control of the territory they desire.
The combination of the strongest el Niño and the warmest months ever recorded have led to a growing humanitarian crisis in Africa. A drought extends from Ethiopia to Zimbabwe as abnormally high temperatures and the lack of rain have devastated crops. The drought affects more than 36 million people and does not show any signs of letting up any time soon. The world needs to step up its humanitarian assistance to these people to prevent a tragedy.
Today marks the anniversary of one of the worst episodes in American military history: the massacre of more than 300 (some estimates say 500) unresisting Vietnamese men, women, and children by American troops in the village of My Lai in central Vietnam on 16 March 1968. The soldiers of Charlie Company, First Battalion, 20th Infantry Regiment, 11th Infantry Brigade, 23rd Infantry Division had been out in the field for more than two months and had lost many comrades to the stealthy guerrilla tactics of the Viet Cong. The frustrations and anger of the soldiers boiled over in My Lai and one of the worst war crimes ever committed by American forces occurred. Lt. William Calley, one of the officers involved, was convicted of premeditated murder, but, due to political pressures in the US, only ended up serving 4 and a half years in prison.
Jeffrey Goldberg’s essay on US President Obama’s foreign policy has generated a lot of buzz. Martin Indyk, a long-time analyst of Middle Eastern affairs, has written a follow-up essay for The Atlantic, raising a central question: if the US pulls back, who will fill the political and military vacuum? Indyk points out that the Obama Doctrine did in fact provide an opening for Russia. But he also points out that from Obama’s perspective:
But for the president himself, all this is a logical, even welcome outcome: If Putin wants to assume the role of restoring order in a chaotic region, let him have at it—Obama is confident Putin too will fail. As for the fragile Syrian ceasefire made possible by U.S.-Russian cooperation, if it holds, the president will be able to reduce one of the most troubling collateral consequences of the Obama doctrine: the suffering of the Syrian people.
We will see if the benefits of a pullback do outweigh the risks.
The Boston Globe has a long article on how US policy in Iraq after the invasion of Iraq in March 2003 led to the rise of Daesh (the Islamic State). The article is a detailed analysis of the actions taken by Paul Bremer who was essentially the US Viceroy in Iraq, making key decisions to exclude key Iraqi players from having any say in the reconstituted Iraqi government. It was precisely those disenfranchised Iraqis who ultimately gravitate to Daesh. The article is a superb summary for those who remain perplexed by how US policy led to such disastrous consequences.
Brazilian President Dilma Rousseff offered her predecessor, Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva, a cabinet position to shield him temporarily from corruption charges. The move reflects great desperation on Rousseff’s part as she tries to avoid impeachment. Lula is very popular in Brazil, particularly among the poor, and Rousseff hopes that his popularity may deflect the criticisms that have been leveled against her.
Both Donald Trump and Bernie Sanders have raised issues about the process of globalization: Trump questions the mobility of labor and attacks immigration; Sanders questions the mobility of capital and attacks Free Trade Agreements. The candidates are thus challenging one of the fundamental tenets of the liberal ideology that has dominated the global system since 1945. The questions about globalization will likely become more visible and discussed as the sanctity of the ideology has now been raised. John Maynard Keynes once said of free trade:
“I was brought up, like most Englishmen, to respect free trade not only as an economic doctrine which a rational and instructed person could not doubt, but almost as a part of the moral law. I regarded ordinary departures from it as being at the same time an imbecility and an outrage. I thought England’s unshakable free trade convictions, maintained for nearly a hundred years, to be both the explanation before man and the justification before Heaven of her economic supremacy. As lately as 1923 I was writing that free trade was based on fundamental “truths” which, stated with their due qualifications, no one can dispute who is capable of understanding the meaning of the words.” John Maynard Keynes, “National Self-Sufficiency,” The Yale Review, Vol. 22, no. 4 (June 1933), pp. 755-769.
The backlash against globalization mirrors a similar backlash at the beginning of the 20th century, well documented by Ronald Findlay and Kevin H. O’Rourke in their book Power and Plenty. The backlash, of course, led to the rise of fascism, something which some analysts (Christopher Hedges and Thomas Franks). Both Trump and Sanders should be taken seriously as a clear symptom of the decline in the power of the ideology of free trade and the legitimacy of democracy itself.
Russia has announced that it will pull its “main forces” out of Syria. Some Russian forces will remain in Syria to enforce the “cessation of hostilities” but the Russians indicated that its primary mission of supporting President Assad had been completed. The cease-fire does not include the two main rebel groups–Daesh (the Islamic State) and Jabat al-Nusra–but it has tamped down much of the violence. The Russian decision will make it easier for the US to make concessions about the conditions under which President Assad can remain in Syria in some limited capacity.
To its great credit, China is trying to wean itself from consuming coal to produce electricity. But the decline in coal consumption has a real price: thousands of coal miners have not been paid in months, and China intends to lay off as many as 2 million coal miners over the next three years. The policies have understandably caused great harm to the miners and there has been a dramatic increase in the number of coal miner strikes, as well as a large number of strikes over all.
A car-bomb exploded in central Ankara, Turkey, killing at least 34 people and leaving 125 injured. Turkish officials blamed the Kurdish Workers Party (PKK) for the explosion, but there was no claim of responsibility. In the past, the PKK or the Islamic State have been responsible for such attacks. On Friday, the US Embassy in Turkey had warned of an attack which suggests that whoever launched the attack was on the US surveillance watch screen.
Nationalist parties, such as the Alliance for Deutchsland (AfD), made strong gains in state elections in Germany. The AfD gathered enough votes to secure representation in several of those parliaments and achieved those gains largely at the expense of the parties making up Chancellor Merkel’s ruling coalition. The success of these parties reflects the growing dissatisfaction with the handling of the refugee crisis as well as an underlying anti-immigrant sentiment. Populism lives in Germany and in the political campaign of Donald Trump in the US.
Hundreds of thousands of Brazilians took to the streets to protest the continuing presidency of Dilma Rousseff. The people are protesting the scandals in the Rousseff government as well as the rapid economic decline in Brazil. The political economy of Brazil is near the breaking point and it seems likely that there will be dramatic changes in the near future.
The refugee crisis is causing the EU to bend its own rules but also international law. German Chancellor Merkel reached an agreement with Turkey that includes the following elements:
- The EU will admit one refugee for every refugee that is sent back from Greece to the Turkish refugee camps.
- Turkey is asking for around 6 billion euros ($6.6 billion) to house and feed the new migrants, as well as the 2.5 million refugees already in Turkish camps.
- It has also called on the EU to grant visa-free travel to Turkish citizens throughout the bloc – a perk Turks have long craved.
- It is also calling for an acceleration of EU accession talks, which have been languishing for nearly 30 years.
The agreement needs to ratified by the EU, but sending back refugees violates the EU Convention on the treatment of refugees as well as the international convention on the status of refugees.
Since the beginning of the Cold War, both Russia and China have been staunchly opposed to intervention for humanitarian reasons. The reason for that position was clear: both feared Western intervention to defend minorities in their countries who might have warranted protection. But that position seems to be changing. Both China and Russia are now a little more favorable to intervention since it now can be used to diminish the role of the West in propping up favorable regimes. If this trend takes hold (as it appears to have done in the cases of Crimea, North Korea, Syria, and the South China Sea), there could be greater instability in the international system.
As we have long suspected, the major powers are considering a division of Syria along ethnic and sectarian lines. Syria would remain a united nation-state, but different parts of the country would be given a high degree of autonomy to regulate local affairs. The arrangement is not dissimilar to the way other countries are ruled, e.g. Switzerland, and actually mimics, to a certain degree, the federalism which exists in the US. Opposition to the proposal remains strong among the rebel groups, but the arrangement is viewed as a face-saving way for Assad to remain in power while at the same time tamping down the violence in the country.
Australian researchers have released a study which suggests that the earth could warm by 2 degrees C by the year 2030, and not by the year 2100. The Australian model is the first to use projections of energy use per capita as well as economic and population growth. Those variables are not typically incorporated into the climate models. The research is certain to be heavily scrutinized, but we should keep our eyes on the model.
Nine days before US President Obama is scheduled to visit Cuba, the European Union has normalized relations with Cuba. The Cubans were not required to make many changes, but the policy, which had been in place for many years had not yielded any changes and there really was no hope that any would ever be forthcoming. The policy of isolation was widely regarded as both foolish and bootless.
Jeffrey Goldberg has written a fascinating essay on US President Obama’s foreign policy for The Atlantic. Goldberg traces the issues facing the US and how Obama has tried to thread a very tiny needle: how to maintain the US-constructed world order while at the same time reducing the global commitments of the country. Goldberg has some great insights into Obama’s advisers and their roles in foreign policy and how Obama has tried to adhere to his essential position that the US remains fundamentally over-committed given its limited resources. In the same issue Andrew McGill has compiled many of Obama’s statements on foreign policy to give a mosaic of his perspectives on different global problems.
Few Americans have head of Frauke Petry. She is the leader of a German political party, the Alternative for Germany. The party started out as a eurosceptic party, but has morphed into an anti-immigrant party as the country has had to confront the influx of refugees from all over the world. The party has achieved representation in several of the state parliaments, accruing up to 20% of the vote in some of the elections. It is hard to tell how lasting the party’s success will be, but, at this time, it represents a small, but potent, threat to Chancellor Merkel.
The climate change crisis is clearly upon us (as the temperature in South Hadley is 72 degrees F today (9 March!!!!)). The crisis, however, does not fit into the traditional pattern of world politics. The climate is global; nation-states are parochial. Addressing the climate change crisis will require a completely different way to think about ‘national” security. Matt McDonald has written an essay that helps us to reformulate out pattern of thinking on the global environment.
Iran has tested two long-range missiles that indicate that its military capacity is quite substantial. Importantly, the Iranian missile program was not part of the agreement reached with the P5+1 on the nuclear weapons program (it takes a great deal of effort and expertise to manufacture a nuclear warhead small enough to fit into a missile), but the P5+1 are concerned about what the tests imply. The range of the missiles definitely includes the state of Israel. The Iranian press has published numerous photos of the tests, clearly indicating that Iran wants the world to know of its capabilities.
The northern route for refugees to Europe out of Greece has now been effectively shut down. Slovenia, Serbia, and Macedonia have all closed their borders to further migrants. It is now safe to say that the Schengen Plan of the EU is now suspended. Where the refugees in Greece and Turkey now go is unclear. As the weather warms, the number of refugees seeking safety will unquestionably increase.
This year is the 100th anniversary of the Sykes-Picot Treaty which divided up the failing Ottoman Empire between the French and the British. This act of imperialism is the source of many of the problems in the Middle East today since the lines drawn did not correspond in any way with the underlying demography of the region. Indeed, much of the fighting today is an attempt to draw new lines that are more acceptable to the Sunni, the Shia, the Kurds, and Turkey. Peter van Buren makes the case for a new Sykes-Picot Treaty–one, however, that is mutually acceptable to the actual people involved.
Inset of the Map used by Sykes and Picot
The Pew Research Center has conducted a poll in Israel which indicates that nearly half (48%) of Israeli Jews believe that Arabs should be expelled from Israel. The Center asked questions among the commonly used divisions within Israeli society: “Nearly all Israeli Jews identify with one of four categories: Haredi (commonly translated as “ultra-Orthodox”), Dati (“religious”), Masorti (“traditional”) or Hiloni (“secular”).” The analysis is quite long, and students in the world politics class should focus on the section labeled “Israeli Jews divided on the status of Arabs” (I will only ask questions on that section–4 paragraphs). The conclusions of this section of the analysis suggest that there is considerable tension within Israel about whether Israel can simultaneously be a Jewish state and a democratic state.
Data from China suggest that the world is inching closer to a global economic slowdown. Chinese exports dropped by 25.4% from last years and its imports declined by 13.8%. Global trade is down sharply as a whole, but the loss of China as an important driver of global economic growth, is significant. At this time, only the US is showing positive economic growth, although Europe is beginning to show signs of a possible rebound.
China experiences a hard landing
Russia’s interventions in Ukraine and Syria precede a new “cold war”
Beset by external and internal pressures, the EU begins to fracture
Donald Trump wins the US presidential election
The UK votes to leave the EU
A collapse in investment in the oil sector prompts a future oil price shock
World Politics News 