The state of Maharashtra in India has decided to enforce a total ban on the sale of cattle for consumption. Cows are sacred in the Hindu religion but bans on their slaughter were rarely enforced until the election of Narendra Modi of the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP). The BJP emphasizes the Hindu national character of India and has elevated Hindu tradition into law. The ban on slaughtering cows has had a serious effect on the livelihoods of many in India, the world’s largest exporter of beef. The ban is also profoundly discriminatory against non-Hindus in India.
Russia plans to build a naval base on one of the Kurile Islands. Those islands were “awarded” to the Soviet Union as part of the settlement of World War II but Japan has never officially recognized Russian sovereignty over the islands. The dispute has prevented the two countries from ever signing a formal peace treaty to end World War II. The Russian move comes at a time when Japan is moving to expand its military capabilities beyond the purely defensive posture imposed on it by the terms of the American-written Constitution.
The ability of terrorist attacks to manipulate public opinion is undeniable. But the threat of terrorism has an effect which is disproportionate to the likelihood of it occurring; there are many other threats which are far more likely and deadly that the public tends to discount. Jeremy Shapiro has an interesting article on how terrorism is able to achieve its ends.
Police broke up a demonstration comprised of right-wing agitators at the Place de la Bourse in Brussels. There have been ongoing solidarity demonstrations at that location to show sympathy for those killed and injured in the recent terror attacks. But the right-wing agitators were demonstrating against Muslims and immigrants, and police had to break up the demonstrations before violence got out of control The agitators made no secret of their contempt for liberal society.
Many Mexicans celebrate Easter by burning effigies of evil people on the Saturday before Easter Sunday. This year, apparently, effigies of Donald Trump were in high demand to be burned. Trump has not endeared himself to the Mexican population with his campaign rhetoric, and the Mexicans were delighted at the opportunity to return the scorn. US Secretary of State expressed his point of view that the current Republican primary elections were an “embarrassment” to the United States.
A Pakistani Taliban faction, Jamaat-ul-Ahrar, claimed responsibility for a bomb blast that targeted Christians in Pakistan. The bombing occurred in a park outside the city of Lahore and killed 65 people and wounded over 300. The Pakistani government, led by Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif, has been less than effective in addressing the power of extremist groups in Pakistan and the attack in Lahore is a direct challenge to his government.
The most recent edition of The Economist focuses on an issue that has received little attention in the current debate about income inequality in the US: the lack of competition among firms in the US. According to the article:
“But one problem with American capitalism has been overlooked: a corrosive lack of competition. The naughty secret of American firms is that life at home is much easier: their returns on equity are 40% higher in the United States than they are abroad. Aggregate domestic profits are at near-record levels relative to GDP. America is meant to be a temple of free enterprise. It isn’t.”
The facts do not correlate with the rhetoric about the “free” market in the US. Power in being increasingly concentrated in a smaller number of corporations. Again, from the article:
” Our analysis of census data suggests that two-thirds of the economy’s 900-odd industries have become more concentrated since 1997. A tenth of the economy is at the mercy of a handful of firms—from dog food and batteries to airlines, telecoms and credit cards.”
Perhaps it is time to dust-off the anti-trust laws.
Turkish journalists who published an article accusing the Turkish government of secretly funneling arms to the Syrian government are being prosecuted for violating national security. The trial is being conducted behind closed doors, and many are outraged at the violations of human rights in Turkey. President Erdogan chastised the foreign envoys sitting outside the courtroom, telling them that “…this is not your country, this is Turkey”.
China has detained over 20 people who signed a letter asking that Chinese President Xi Jinping resign from his leadership position. The letter was posted on the blogsite Wujie News. The letter has been taken down but a cached version can be accessed here (the original is in Chinese but Google can translate it for non-Chinese speaking people). The letter is a fairly broad-based critique of Xi’s leadership, but it seems as if the biggest concern is the way Xi has concentrated power in his own hands.
US Defense Secretary, Ashton Carter, asserted today that US military forces had killed Abdul-Rahman Mustafa Mohammed, the finance minister for Daesh (the Islamic State), in Syria. Interestingly, Carter did not say that Mohammed was killed in an airstrike, leading many to speculate that he was killed on the ground by US Special Operations forces. In the same press conference, Gen. Joseph Dunford, chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, indicated that an increase in American ground forces was likely to be requested soon. Obviously there is a build-up of American ground troops in Iraq which has not yet been fully acknowledged.
Saudi Arabia began its bombing campaign against Yemen on 26 March 2015. In the following year, millions of Yemenis have been displaced and thousands have been killed. There are virtually no international efforts ongoing to restrain the Saudis and it is not clear what objectives will satisfy the definition of “success” for the Saudis. It will take many,, many years for Yemen to be fully restored to its pre-war conditions.
One hundred years ago, Irish nationalists rose up in protest against British rule. In the six days of riots, known as the Easter Uprising, almost 500 Irish were killed by British troops. The uprising signaled the beginning of the end for British rule in Ireland, a devolution that is still ongoing.
Radovan Karadzic, the leader of the “Serb Republic” in Bosnia during the conflict following the dissolution of Yugoslavia in 1991, has been found guilty of war crimes during that conflict. In particular, he was to be responsible for the murder of about 8,000 Muslim men and boys in the town of Srebrenica. It took the International Criminal Tribunal in The Hague a very long time to bring Karadzic to justice, but the conviction is a large step toward establishing the precedent of holding leaders responsible for crimes committed during war.
North Korea continues to disregard the sanctions placed on it for its nuclear program. It announced the successful test of a solid fuel missile. Solid fueled missiles are less accurate than liquid fueled missiles, but have the distinct advantage of being ready at a moment’s notice (liquid-fueled missiles need to be fueled up before they can be launched giving opponents the ability to prepare themselves for an attack). At the same time, North Korea announced that it was ready to test its fifth nuclear weapon. The sanctions appear to have had little effect on North Korean behavior.
As the global economy sputters along with no real sense of direction, concern is rising about how long political systems can handle the extended slowdown. Economic stress makes demands on political institutions that are difficult to manage because those demands usually involve some actions that almost inevitably disadvantage some constituencies. The internal competition for resources among the different constituencies fragments a polity and makes compromise difficult.
For those who want to better appreciate the dynamism of history, there is a wonderful time map of European history from 1000 CE to 2000 CE. As you watch the video, become aware of how many places once existed which are now long forgotten (I bet the Great Lithuanian Empire was not part of your history lessons). And for those who think that the nation-state is something permanent and static, watch how the boundaries of many familiar places change rapidly and beyond recognition.
Analysts are at a loss to come up with compelling explanations for why Donald Trump has proven to be so attractive for so long to such a large number of American voters. Bloomberg has a series of charts which explain why voters are so angry in virtually every part of the globe. The charts illustrate the way the majority of people in the world have been losing economic ground and how that dynamic has led to increased political polarization.
James Hansen, the former NASA scientist who first raised the issue of climate change, has, along with others, released a new paper which has generated incredible controversy. The new paper suggests that climate change is happening much more rapidly than the climate models predict, and that the world is facing dramatic changes within a framework of decades. The new paper focuses on feedback loops caused by the release of fresh water into the oceans brought about by the melting of glaciers and ice packs. These feedback loops are linked to more rapid changes in air and water circulation on the planet than have been anticipated. If these feedback loops are as robust as Hansen and his colleagues believe, then rising oceans will be a much more immediate issue for the planet than has been assumed.
Turkish President Erdogan has mobilized the Turkish military and police to combat what he described as “one of the biggest and bloodiest terrorist waves in its history”. He identified Daesh (the Islamic State), and not the PKK, the Kurdish Worker’s Party, as the source of the most recent terror attack within Turkey. Nonetheless, it seems as if Erdogan is deeply interested in pursuing those Kurds who appear to be supporting greater autonomy and support for the Syrian Kurds. It is hard to pursue both enemies simultaneously since Daesh and the Kurds are also battling each other. At some point, Erdogan has to decide which is the greater enemy.
The Conservative Party in Britain is being rocked by the upcoming referendum over British membership in the European Union. The Prime Minister, David Cameron, rashly promised a referendum on British membership in order to win the last election and then demanded and received concessions from the EU to remain. But some important members of the Party remain unsatisfied with those concessions and are going to campaign for an exit despite Cameron’s about face. The disagreement threatens to undermine the current government.
The World Meteorological Organisation has issued its annual report on climate, and its tone was unyielding: “The alarming rate of change we are now witnessing in our climate as a result of greenhouse gas emission is unprecedented in modern records.” The Guardian summarizes the report with these bullet points:
2015 was the hottest year on record, with global average surface temperatures sitting 0.76C above the 1961-90 average. That was driven by long-term climate change and a strong El Niño.
Ocean heat down to both 700m and 2,000m broke all previous records.
When the Arctic sea ice was at its maximum, it was the smallest it has been since consistent records began in the 1970s. The sea ice minimum was the fourth-smallest it has been over that time.
The latest WMO figures on CO2 levels (from 2014) reached a record level, teetering on the edge of the symbolic 400ppm, at 397.7 – 43% more than pre-industrial levels.
Sea level, measured by both traditional tide gauges and satellites, was the highest on record.
Devastating heatwaves occurred in many places, killing 2,000 people in the southern Indian states of Telangana and Andhra Pradesh alone.
Extreme rainfall records fell in many locations. More than 11 months’ worth of rain fell in one day on the west coast of Libya. Marrakech in Morocco received 13 months’ worth in one hour in August.
Southern Africa had its driest season since 1932-33 and drought exacerbated forest fires in Indonesia.
Tropical cyclone Patricia hit Mexico on 20 October as the strongest hurricane on record in either the Atlantic or eastern north Pacific, with sustained wind speeds of 346km/h.
Global temperatures last February were above average, but not simply above average: they were distinctively above average. According to reports: “NOAA said Earth averaged 56.08 degrees Fahrenheit (13.38 degrees Celsius) in February, 2.18 degrees (1.21 degrees Celsius) above average, beating the old record for February set in 2015 by nearly six-tenths of a degree (one-third of a degree Celsius).” It is the biggest departure from normal since records started being kept in 1880 and it was warmer in every region of the earth except for Antarctica.
The US and the Philippines have announced agreement on the access of US military forces to five military bases in the Philippines. The agreement signals a major increase in the commitment of the two countries to each other, and, even though both sides deny the objective, it clearly is aimed at Chinese military activity in the South China Sea. The US had a major military presence in the Philippines until it was asked to leave in 1992 after nationalist sentiment in the Philippines turned against the US. The new commitment does not reach the same historical level of commitment, but it is substantial.
US President Obama is now in Cuba, ending years of a failed embargo policy against the island nation. The US cut off relations with Cuba after the 1959 revolution led by Fidel Castro raised fears of a “communist takeover” in 1961. While the embargo placed incredible burdens on Cuban people, it is safe to say that the US lost more in terms of prestige and intelligence by adhering to such a failed policy for so long. Obama’s visit indicates how much the US has changed, not how much Cuba has changed.
Russia has begun building a 12-mile bridge to connect Crimea to the Russian mainland. Since the seizure of Crimea in 2014, Ukraine has not allowed it to be resupplied from its territory and Russia has been forced to resupply the peninsula by ships. There are significant shortages of many necessary materials, but it would be politically difficult for Russia to withdraw. So a plan developed by Czar Nicholas in 1910 to build a bridge has been revived. Even if the bridge is built, it is unlikely that the international community will recognize the illegal seizure of the peninsula from Ukraine.
There has been another bomb attack in a Turkish city. The Syrian civil war is rapidly spreading to Turkey even as the dim outline of a negotiated settlement is beginning to appear. President Erdogan has managed to completely destroy the two year ceasefire with the Kurds and it is likely that the Syrian Kurds will emerge with a slice of Syrian territory under their control. That outcome will prove to be highly intoxicating to the Turkish, Iranian, and Iraqi Kurds. The turmoil in Turkey will likely continue to escalate.
It is hard to imagine how the Syrian people have survived the civil war. Not only have about 350,000 been killed, but millions have fled the country. The people, however, still find ways to carry on. The BBC has a great article on life in Syria right now, and the interesting insight that a particular 1970s song has sustained many. Rock on, Syria!
A little over a year ago, a coalition led by Saudi Arabia began bombing Houthi rebels in Yemen. The bombing highlighted a more aggressive foreign policy by the new King Salman of Saudi Arabia toward what he considered a group allied with Iran. The bombing has been intense, and, in the eyes of many, indiscriminate. A UN representative raised today the prospect that Saudi Arabia was guilty of war crimes in Yemen.
It has been two years since Russia annexed Crimea, an act that most states in the West have refused to recognize as legitimate. But there is no evidence whatsoever that Russia has altered its position. Indeed, it has hardened it as far as European affairs are concerned. Natalie Nougayrède has written an essay for The Guardian which relies heavily on an essay recently written by the Russian Foreign Minister, Sergei Lavrov. Her impression is that the argument of Lavrov’s essay is this: “What Russia wants is nothing short of fundamental change: a formal, treaty-based say on Europe’s political and security architecture. Until Russia gets that, goes the message, there will be no stability on the continent. The key sentence in the article is this: ‘During the last two centuries, any attempt to unite Europe without Russia and against it has inevitably led to grim tragedies.'” When analyzing Russia’s objectives, it is also necessary to interpret Russia’s recent decision to pull out of Syria. Aron Lund of the Carnegie Endowment has written an intriguing essay speculating on the possible ways to interpret the Russian Syrian decision.
By any metric, Nigeria should be the wealthiest country in Africa. It is blessed in a number of ways, not the least of which is a robust, dynamic culture. But often some blessings are actually curses, and that certainly seems to be the case with Nigeria’s oil wealth. Its oil revenues have not been used well, and much of those revenues are unaccounted for. The wealth of the country is also an opportunity for corruption on a vast scale, even with an oil company ostensibly controlled by the state.
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