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Chinese exports fell unexpectedly by 0.3% in September (compared to last September), raising serious questions about the state of the global economy. The biggest drop was to countries in Southeast Asia, and analysts fear that the downturn is due to a fear that US monetary policy will stiffen as the Federal Reserve slows down its policy of quantitative easing. That easing will likely cause currencies around the world to rise leading to reduce spending on imports. The uncertainty over US budget and debt policy will also serve to aggravate that tendency.
We often have the sense that the media is not always reporting accurately, and nowhere does this suspicion arise more often than on the issue of climate change. Media Matters for America has done a study of media reporting on climate change and found that the media often try to present a “balanced” point of view by interviewing people who reject the possibility of human induced climate change even if their scientific credentials are lacking. The strategy thus leads to the sense that climate scientists themselves are having a similar debate, a conclusion that is most certainly not the case.
If you wish to be really spooked about climate change, you should check out the new research just published by a team of Rutgers geologists. I have no credentials whatsoever in assessing their findings.
Apparently, the Greek Party, Golden Dawn, has established chapters in the US. The party which is unapologetically sympathetic to Nazi ideology believes that it can find sympathetic followers in the US. It is hard to assess its popularity in the US, but it will undoubtedly find many frustrated Americans who might be looking for an alternative to the usual politics in Washington.
The east coast of India is bracing for the cyclone, Phailin, which is both very large and incredibly powerful. In US terms, the cyclone is easily a Category 5 hurricane, and the cyclone spreads over 1,000 miles from India to Myanmar. Mass evacuations have been ordered, but the expected damage will be considerable.
The Organization for the Prohibition of Chemical Weapons has been awarded this year’s Nobel Peace Prize. The selection was due in large part to the critical role the OPCW is playing in the chemical disarmament of Syria. The announcement doubtless disappointed those who wished to see Malala Yousafzai win the prize, but the selection is probably directed toward reinforcing the OPCW’s position in Syria. The Nobel Committee likely assumed that the prize would lend great legitimacy to the effort to disarm chemical weapons.
The current stalemate between the Republicans and the Democrats offers a fascinating opportunity to think about the balance of power. It is, after all, a power struggle between the two parties, and the standoff is an example of how two states find themselves on the brink of war. The Atlantic, has a great article on how the negotiations are playing out, and how important it is to find an outcome that does not eliminate an essential actor. Or, perhaps, why a power struggle can force a major actor to redefine its interests.
The European Parliament has awarded Malala Yousafzai its prestigious Sakharov prize for human rights. Yousafzai was shot by the Pakistan Taliban for her outspoken advocacy for education for girls and women in Pakistan. Her courage has been an inspiration to millions and the award is well-deserved.
The BBC has an article that reviews world reactions to the current stalemate in Washington, DC. The article emphatically refutes the idea that there is a sharp distinction between domestic and international politics. Unfortunately, the US Congress does not seem to appreciate the responsibilities of global power and seems incapable of understanding how its actions literally affect billions of people.
French President Hollande has issued a dire warning about the rise of right-wing parties in Europe, arguing that their rise could fatally compromise the European integration process. Hollande was particularly concerned about how well these parties might do in the elections for the European Parliament scheduled for next May. The rise of these parties is clearly a continent-wide phenomenon with virtually no country immune from the appeal of the far-right.
As many of you know, I am quite concerned about the growth of income inequality since I believe that as it worsens, the overall economy will suffer. On a global scale, wealth (not income) is massively unequal: “32 million people, representing 0.7% of the world’s adult, population control $98.7 trillion or about 41% of the world’s wealth.” How long such a lop-sided distribution can persist is unknown.
And where do the super-wealthy live?
The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has lowered its global economic growth forecast. The Fund lowered its growth estimates by 0.2 percent from its forecast last July. Its expectation is that the global economy will only grow by 2.9% this year. This estimate may prove to be overly optimistic if the US does not address its budgetary and debt issues. Indeed, the governance issues in the US may sharply lower global economic growth if it seems to the rest of the world that the US is no longer reliable. We are beginning to get some indications that global investors are becoming apprehensive, and as the deadline of 17 October gets closer those fears will only get worse.
The loss of nearly 300 lives near the Italian island of Lampedusa is testimony to how desperate many people are to leave their home country in search of a better life in Europe. And the increasingly nasty political rhetoric against immigrants is testimony to the growing nationalism in Europe, and a desire to protect national economies from competition in the labor market. The situation, however, is different if you are a rich immigrant. Many European states will welcome people from other countries if they have the means to buy a house. The inconsistency is telling.
As the whole world watches the showdown in Washington, DC., it is useful to know who the players are. One person who is often overlooked in this deadlock is Harry Reid, the Senate Majority Leader. Apparently, he is the real driver behind the White House’s adamant stance against negotiations. It also appears as if Reid loves a fight. We should watch him more carefully as the shutdown continues.
China currently owns about $1.277 trillion of US Treasury bonds. Needless to say, the prospect of a US credit default on 17 October is quite frightening to the Chinese government, and it has made it clear to the US that it expects a default to be avoided at all costs. It does not appear that the members of Congress who are threatening a default seem to care about the effects of a default on foreign creditors. It is important to understand that nervous investors will begin to act before the actual default if they believe that a default is inevitable, so market fear is becoming a real issue even now.
Meanwhile, income inequality in the US continues to widen. The most recent data, using statistics from the US Internal Revenue Service that extends to 2012, shows that breaking down the data into two sets [from 1947-79 and 1979-2012) indicates that the earlier period was one where most Americans shared in economic growth and the later period showed sharp divergence. The key difference in the two periods was the lower tax rates that characterized the second period. You can see the difference if you check the radio buttons in the graph. Pay particular attention to what happens to the 0-20% of the lower income brackets in the period 1979-2012 (hint, hint).
The US-Russian-UN agreement on the destruction of Syria’s chemical weapons appears to be proceeding well. I have never been more delighted to have been proven wrong, and my skepticism seems to have been unwarranted. There is no question that this process would not have begun without the strong support of Russia and Vladimir Putin. Let us hope that the process continues to go well and easily.
Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe spoke at the UN General Assembly, trying to refute charges by his critics that he is re-establishing Japanese militarism in East Asia. He tried to deflect the charges by pointing to the rapid increase in military spending by China. The speech symbolizes the “security dilemma” perfectly. Both Japan and China have a myriad of reasons to cooperate, most importantly in terms of their economic relationship. There are, however, some genuine disagreements between the two countries which tend to overshadow their common interests, and the rapid increase of military spending by both will tend to emphasize those disagreements.
There have been a number of stories about the two commando raids conducted by the US recently, one in Libya and one in Somalia. We still know very little about the raids, but they were touted as indications of American resolve against al-Qaeda. But questions have been raised about their effectiveness, and the Libyan government has protested the US intrusion against Libyan sovereignty. It is often useful to take into account the perceptions of outsiders when assessing the value of such operations.
US Secretary of Defense, Chuck Hagel, has made the determination that 400,000 civilian defense workers are “essential” and thereby exempt from the budget constraints of the US government shutdown. That action reduces the number of furloughed workers by half. One should ask the question, however, is how such a determination is made. Do military concerns automatically trump domestic concerns? How does one decide that those who offer food assistance to poor families are less essential than those who are working on a military technology that may be years away from deployment.
The US conducted two raids on Saturday against groups implicated in terrorist activities. One operation was in Somalia against members of al Shabab, the organization that conducted the attack on the mall in Kenya. The other operation was to arrest Anas al-Libi, an individual who is believed to have been the mastermind in the bombing attacks against the US Embassies in Kenya and Tanzania in 1998. The raids suggest how seriously the US regards the recent spate of bombings that have occurred in a number of places in recent months.
Israel is a recognized nation-state, but it has one curious feature: there is no Israeli “nation.” The population register of Israel recognizes individuals as Jews or Arabs, but not as Israelis. The bureaucratic recognition of Israeli nationality would have repercussions for Israeli identity as a Jewish state: non-Jews could claim to be Israelis. At some point, Israel will have to square this anomaly with its democracy. A liberal democracy cannot conflate religion with citizenship.
The small Italian island of Lampedusa is an objective for many people who wish to immigrate to Europe. Most of these immigrants are from North Africa and they are seeking a better life in Europe. Once in Lampedusa, the immigrants can make claims for asylum and assistance, and every year, thousands of immigrants make the perilous voyage. Two days ago, a small boat, with hundreds of immigrants, recently sank, and about 200 people are missing. The tragedy has re-ignited the controversy about immigration in Europe, a controversy that will only intensify.
We have discussed in class the seemingly chaotic nature of politics in the world today–a sense of drift and a lack of vision and purpose. Some commentators are talking more explicitly about the lack of leadership in the world. The leaders of most countries seem to be focused on the short term because the problems seem to be so overwhelming. But continued attention to only the short term is a disastrous policy in the long run. Remarkably, I cannot think of any leader in the world right now who appears to have a vision of how he or she wishes the world to look like in 10 years, and that is very sad.
One of the 20th Century’s great military minds, Vietnam’s Vo Nguyen Giap, has died. Giap led his forces to victories over both the French and American armies in the drive for Vietnam’s independence and unification. In both cases, few gave Giap much chance of winning his struggle, but he was able to mobilize his forces to make heroic sacrifices and to exploit his enemy’s weaknesses. One need not agree with his objectives, but it is hard to dispute his acumen as a military mind.
The International Monetary Fund has issued a warning to the US about the controversy over passing the debt ceiling limit. It is rare for the IMF to criticize its largest donor, and the warning gives a clear idea of how serious the matter is for the global economy. Whether the warning will serve to move the US Congress to take action remains to be seen.
Richard Haas, the President of the Council on Foreign Relations, reviews the ways the US government shutdown affects US foreign policy. There are a very wide number of ripple effects of the shutdown, and most people do not think immediately of foreign policy. But the shutdown brings into question the integrity and reliability of the US, both critical components of the trust necessary to conduct a predictable foreign policy.
This entry is not about world politics, but I cannot resist the urge to post a recent piece in The Atlantic about the ways marketing strategies target women. I will not ask any questions on the quiz about this post, but I found the strategies outlined to be massively repugnant. The power of the “new” technologies can be used for good and for ill–this is power grossly abused.
World Politics News 