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Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov made very positive comments about a possible nuclear deal with Iran. The P5+1 and Iran negotiations are scheduled to resume on 20 November and, according to Lavrov, “now there are no fundamental disagreements on which issues need to be resolved in practice.” The Israelis, however, have a completely different take on the negotiations. Israeli Homeland Defense Minister Gilad Erdan said in a radio interview on Saturday that Israel does not recognize Iran’s right to enrich uranium. Minister Erdan’s position is inconsistent with the Non-Proliferation Treaty which explicitly recognizes the right of signatory nations to enrich uranium for energy and for medical uses. We will have to keep an eye on French President Hollande’s visit to Israel this week, since France was identified as the main opponent within the P5+1 group to the proposed deal with Iran in the previous round of negotiations.
An era has come to an end in India. Sachin Tendulkar, one of the greatest cricket players in the history of the sport, has retired. Few people outside of the countries of the former British Empire comprehend cricket, nor do they appreciate the significance of the sport to the independent nations that emerged from the empire. Cricket is arguably the most popular sport in the world (after soccer/football), and the success of the former colonies in besting Great Britain in the game was an important milestone in the decolonization movement. Tendulkar received India’s highest civilian honor, the Bharat Ratna, for his on- and off-field excellence.
China has announced some major policy changes. It will drop its “one child policy” adopted in 1979 as a means of controlling the country’s large population. In truth, the policy had never been uniformly enforced, but the change was necessary as China goes through a major demographic shift to a much older population. The slow growth in its population means that there will be too few workers to support a large number of retired persons. China also announced that it was going to end its prison labor camps. These camps have held hundreds of thousands of Chinese citizens without trial. All in all, more than 60 reforms were announced by the Chinese government in Xinhua.
The UN Security Council has failed to delay the trial of Kenyan President Uhuru Kenyatta and Deputy President William Ruto. Rwanda, Togo and Morocco sponsored the resolution to delay the trial by one year, and they were joined by Russia, China, Azerbaijan and Pakistan. The resolution, however, required nine affirmative votes and all other members of the Council abstained. Curiously, the US abstained from the vote which effectively reinforces the jurisdiction of the International Criminal Court. The US, however, has never recognized the authority of the ICC in its own affairs. This is part of the statement released by US UN Ambassador Samantha Power explaining the abstention:
The United States and Kenya have been friends and strong partners for half a century. We value the friendship and will continue working with the government and people of Kenya on issues of shared concern, including security against terror, economic development, environmental protection, the promotion of human rights, and justice. We also continue to recognize the important role that the ICC can play in achieving accountability, and are steadfast in our belief that justice for the innocent victims of the post-election violence in Kenya is essential to lasting peace.
I do not know if this article will be accessible to the readers of the blog. It is a blog post from Professor Stephen Walt who teaches at Harvard University who is unquestionably one of the most astute analysts of world politics today. He is also a self-avowed realist and co-author of a very important book that analyzed the power of the Israel lobby on American foreign policy. Unfortunately, it is posted on Foreign Policy which requires registration. I am hoping that the blog sections of the online version do not require registration (since I subscribe to Foreign Policy I automatically have access to the blog and therefore cannot test whether non-subscribers have access). But, given the discussions we have had in class about the current Iranian negotiations, I thought the Walt post would be very helpful. If you have access to a College computer, Foreign Policy can be accessed automatically. Obviously, I will not ask any questions on the quiz about this article.
The UN’s International Atomic Energy Agency has issued a report which indicates that Iran unilaterally slowed down its enrichment processes right after President Rouhani was elected last August. The report substantially boosts hope for a negotiated settlement between the P5+1 and Iran since it suggests that Iran made a good faith first step even before the negotiations began. The real question right now is whether the US COngress will interpret the IAEA report in the same way, or decides to increase the sanctions against Iran anyway.
Researchers from the University of Maryland have released an interactive map of the processes of global forest change. The map is quite detailed and one can zoom in on areas as small as 30 meters. The map charts changes in forested land on the planet from 2000-2012, and it shows that the globe has lost forests the size of Mongolia in that time period. But the map shows where progress in protecting forests is occurring as well, giving researchers a good handle on the policies that seem to be effective in stopping deforestation.
There is a continuing protest in Bulgaria that has received little attention in the West. The protests have been spearheaded by students, but they are supported by a wide segment of Bulgarian society. The issues are similar to the protests in other areas of the world: concerns about corruption, the growing inequalities in society, and the general sense that the government has lost touch with the concerns of ordinary citizens. The protests in Bulgaria have become somewhat routine, so it is hard to see an end game. But it is more than likely that the government will at some point try to extinguish the movement.
The details of the P5+1 and Iran negotiations are not known in any specific detail, but The New York Times has an informative graphic on the issues that are being raised and the parameters of a possible agreement. I will not ask any questions about the specific details of the graphic, but a review of the issues can clarify what is being discussed very quickly.
The Palestinian peace negotiators have resigned their posts, and the Israeli-Palestinian peace talks are at a standstill. The negotiators stepped down because the recent Israeli announcements concerning settlements have rendered the talks irrelevant. The timing of the resignations is designed to place pressure on US Secretary of State Kerry at the same time Israel is pressuring Kerry on the Iranian nuclear issue–both sides are competing for US attention to their positions. Palestinian President Mahmoud Abbas said that the negotiators would either return to the negotiations or be replaced.
The reshuffling of Middle East politics continues as Egypt pursues better relations with Russia. It seems as if the Egyptian military is looking to the Russians to supply military weapons after the US decided to cut back on military aid because of the coup against President Morsi. At one point in the 1960s and 1970s, the Russians had very good relations with Egypt, but that phase ended when the Egyptians decided to pursue peace with Israel and the US embraced Egypt as a very strong ally. Now, along with the US-Saudi Arabian alliance, it appears as if the US-Egyptian alliance is weakening.
The European Union is going to do a review of its members’ national economic policies, and attention is particularly focused on its examination of whether Germany’s trade imbalance is damaging the overall economic health of the Union. Some feel that Germany should rely less on exports to boost its economic growth and shift to boosting domestic consumption in the hope that that new consumption would include goods and services produced in other Union state. This issue i a very sensitive one, and the Germans, as the largest contributor to the finances of the Union, will not take an investigation into its economic policies lightly.
The BBC has run a story indicating that there is an emerging cooperative nuclear relationship between Saudi Arabia and Pakistan. Apparently this relationship is long-standing, but it is only being talked about because of Saudi Arabia’s desire to break free of its tight dependence on the US. A nuclear Saudi Arabia would practically assure a nuclear Iran–the Iranians would not easily accept Saudi hegemony in the Gulf region. Shifting alliances always contain high elements of instability. The US will attach great importance to preventing the Saudis from acquiring a nuclear weapon.
Far-right protesters in Poland disrupted the country’s celebration of national independence. This year was the third straight year that the right-wing has protested, and each year it has attacked anything that smacked of liberal or left-wing views. This year the protesters burned a rainbow colored arch paying tribute to tolerance and diversity. The protests mirror similar demonstrations all across Europe in recent months.
We have a great deal about how the world is organized into nation-states. People, however, always have multiple identities no matter how hard the nation-state tries to establish citizenship as the primary identity. Social media does not fit easily into the citizenship framework–it can be far more flexible and nuanced (depending on the user). There is a new social media in the nation-state of Kazakhstan that organizes groups by tribal identity, a framework in Kazakhstan that is both ancient and deep. It will be interesting to see if members of the Kazakh tribes outside of Kazakhstan decide to organize themselves by tribe as well.
At times it seemed as if there would be a breakthrough in the negotiations with Iran on its nuclear program, but apparently there was no agreement reached in Geneva. Both sides (the P5+1 and Iran) seem to agree that substantial progress had been made, but that important differences remain. Reports seem to indicate that France was the power that was not satisfied that there were sufficient guarantees that Iran could not at some point develop a nuclear weapon. At this point it is not clear exactly what the issues were, but I am sure that we will find out soon. Talks are scheduled to restart in 10 days. In the meantime, Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu has urged the American public to reject the deal. The failure of the talks is potentially very dangerous. If Iran decides that there is no possibility of a negotiated settlement, then there is no reason for it to return to the table.
Malala Yousafzai is a powerful advocate for the education of girls, and her legitimacy as an advocate is unquestioned after her attempted assassination by the Pakistan Taliban. Last October she released a memoir entitled I Am Malala. The All Pakistan Private Schools Management Association, with about 40,000 affiliated schools in Pakistan, has banned the book from its curriculum. The head of the Association claimed that Yousafzai is “a tool in the hands of the Western powers.”
African workers in Saudi Arabia have protested against a crackdown on illegal workers in the Kingdom. The protests have led to violence as the workers, who are treated very poorly to begin with, are threatened with expulsion. The problem of guest workers in all the Persian Gulf countries has been a constant irritant, but the workers really have few opportunities in their home countries. Their treatment in the Gulf states has been exploitative and precarious.
The rise of right-wing parties in Europe (and elsewhere) is one of the very troubling consequences of the Great Recession and the subsequent austerity programs. The parallels to the 1930s are suggestive of a political rule: when economic times get tough, people believe that there must be someone to blame and the right-wing usually has a list of suspects: Jews, immigrants, and other “non-native” peoples. The rise of the right-wing in Europe is beginning to get the attention of the political establishment in the region.
The US launched its newest aircraft carrier today, the USS Gerald R. Ford. It is almost impossible to visualize this vessel. It cost $14 billion, weighs 224 million pounds, is about 25 stories high, and is 1,106 feet long and 250 feet wide. The Ford will bring the US up to 10 aircraft carrier groups after the deactivation of the USS Enterprise last year.
Preliminary estimates put the number of killed in the Philippines at around 1,200 as a result of the devastation caused by Typhoon Haiyan. Those numbers will certainly increase as recovery efforts will find more bodies. The storm was one of the strongest to ever make landfall, and the damage is extensive. Many nations are offering help to the Philippines, but recovery will be very slow and expensive.
The body of the late Palestinian leader, Yasir Arafat, was exhumed and recently examined by Swiss, Russian, and French medical experts. Arafat, who died in 2004, was the founder of the Palestine Liberation Organization (now the Palestinian Authority), and, for much of his life, advocated armed struggle to eliminate the state of Israel and return the land to the control of the Palestinian people. in 1993, Arafat accepted the existence of the state of Israel in what are called the Oslo Accords, but the Israelis never forgave him for his use of armed terrorism against Israeli citizens. His death was always suspicious, and the results of the Swiss autopsy suggests that he was poisoned by Polonium-210. The radioactive element has been used in the past to poison individuals, most recently to kill Alexander Litvinenko, a Russian dissident, in 2006. Needless to say, the Palestinians suspect the Israelis of the poisoning, but one should wait for the Russians and the French to release their own, independent, reports.
A report by the European Union’s Fundamental Rights Agency (FRA) showed that anti-Semitism in Europe has risen dramatically over the last five years. The report was based on a poll of European Jews, 76 percent of whom believed that anti-Semitic views has increased and that a third of Jews have considered leaving their countries because of the rise in negative feelings. The increase was largely based in the rise of internet communication and other social media. The findings are particularly troubling in light of the rise of the far-right political parties in Europe.
The buzz in Geneva is getting louder. Not only has US Secretary of State arrived for the negotiations with Iran, but he has been joined by other high officials from Britain, France, and Germany, and the Russian Foreign Minister is now scheduled to join the talks. These are all indications that the negotiations have reached a point where the differences between the two sides have narrowed considerably, but the ones that remain can only be decided at the highest levels of decision-making. It is therefore very difficult to predict success, but one can probably say that success is viewed as a clear possibility. The Israeli Prime Minister, Netanyahu, however, has dismissed the reports and believes that the Iranian position remains unacceptable.
The Philippines is being hit by one of the strongest storms ever recorded. Super Typhoon Haiyan has wind speeds of about 195 miles per hour, with gusts up to 222 mph. Right now it does not appear as if the storm will hit the city of Manila directly, but millions of lives are at risk from this storm. The country has had time to prepare for the typhoon and let’s hope that the preparations are adequate.
Something is clearly happening in the P5+1 and Iran negotiations in Geneva. US Secretary of State Kerry has announced that he will be going to Geneva for the talks. It is very rare for a high-ranking official to make such a decision unless it is believed that some sort of success is likely–high ranking officials rarely wish to be associated with failures. The timing is urgent. Kerry has just finished meeting with Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu and the US Congress will soon take up legislation to increase the sanctions on Iran.
The 75th anniversary of Kristallnacht falls on 9 November. On 9 November 1938, German Jews experienced widespread and coordinated attacks on their property. “Kristallnacht” refers to the sound of the shattered glass from the shop windows that were broken that night. There will be special efforts in Germany to remember the anniversary as the memory of the persecution of Jews seems to be fading, particularly among German young people.
US Secretary of State Kerry was in Jerusalem to meet with the Israeli and Palestinian negotiators. The current talks have been roiled by the Israeli announcement that it was going to build new settlements in East Jerusalem and the West Bank. The settlement issue has been a major obstacle to peace because they encroach on the territory occupied by Israel in the 1967 war. The Palestinians believe that that territory is the basis for their future state; some Israelis believe that that territory is an intrinsic part of Israel. The international community has never recognized the settlements as legal under international law, and today Secretary of State Kerry reaffirmed that judgment: “We consider now and have always considered the settlements to be illegitimate.”
There were explosions from home-made bombs in the northern Shanxi Province of China. Some reports indicate that as many as seven explosions occurred, but there were no official confirmations of that fact. No one or group has claimed responsibility for the blasts and it is hard to determine the significance of these attacks. It is difficult, however, not to think that these explosions may have some link to the recent car crash in Tiananmen Square.
Government spending is a major issue in US politics. Here is a graph that shows spending under each President since 1982. Clinton and Obama are the Democratic Presidents; Reagan, and the two Bushes are the Republican Presidents.
World Politics News 