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Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov delivered a speech to the United Nations that was sharply critical of US foreign policy. His language was direct:
“Washington has openly declared its right to unilateral use of force anywhere to uphold its own interests ……Military interference has become a norm – even despite the dismal outcome of all power operations that the U.S. has carried out over the recent years.”
Lavrov cited the US interventions in Kosovo in 1999, Iraq in 2003, the war in Afghanistan, and the 2011 bombing of Libya. He was also critical of US actions against the Islamic State.
After a long period of negotiations, Afghanistan inaugurated Ashraf Ghani as its next President and Abdullah Abdullah as chief executive officer. The two men replace Hamid Karzai who had been President of the country since 2004. The election was highly contested and for a period of time it did not appear as if the succession would be smooth or legitimate. However, the US Secretary of State John Kerry worked diligently to achieve a resolution. The arrangement is an ad hoc one and likely quite fragile. The US is going to have to work very hard to assure the success of the new government.
Dominique Moisi is a Professor at the L’Institut d’études politiques de Paris (Sciences Po). He has written an essay using balance of power theory to explain contemporary world politics. The essay is insightful and the parallels are intriguing. But I do not think that the political dynamics of 1815 are comparable to 2014, although some states (like Russia) are clearly playing by the old rules.
One reliable metric for instability in world politics is the number of refugees seeking asylum in safe countries. According to the UN High Commissioner on Refugees, the number of asylum-seekers for 2014 may be among the highest ever recorded. Two-thirds of the requests for asylum were made to five countries: Germany, the United States, France, Sweden and Turkey. The largest number of requests came from people from Syria, followed by Iraq, Afghanistan, and Eritrea. Conflict is clearly the trigger for flight, and it does not seem as if there is any likelihood of a slowdown in refugees any time soon.
The human rights group American Justice Center has filed a suit against Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi for his alleged complicity in widespread violence against Muslims in the Indian state of Gujarat in 2002. Modi was the leader of the state at that time, and the suit was filed on behalf of two unnamed persons who presumably suffered during the riots. The suit was filed as Modi began his first official visit to the US as Indian Prime Minister. It is not likely that the suit will interfere with any of his official duties, but the suit is an example of how human rights law has achieved extra-territoriality in recent years.
Palestinian president, Mahmoud Abbas delivered a very hard-hitting speech to the United Nations today. In it, he demanded that the United Nations set a deadline for setting up a Palestinian state:
“ There is no meaning or value in negotiations for which the agreed objective is not ending the Israeli occupation and achieving the independence of the state of Palestine with East Jerusalem as its capital on the entire Palestinian territory occupied in the 1967 war.
“And, there is no value in negotiations which are not linked to a firm timetable for the implementation of this goal.”
Abbas thus rejected further negotiations. But he went further and threatened to bring Israel to the International Criminal Court for what he termed genocide in the recent Gaza War:
“We will not forget and we will not forgive, and we will not allow war criminals to escape punishment.”
There will be furious negotiations within the UN as these matters proceed.
US President Obama gave a very forceful speech on terrorism to the United Nations. The main thrust of the speech was to highlight the common need of all states to reaffirm their commitment to a stable world order. His was the rhetoric of a hegemonic leader who wished to emphasize the mutual benefits of a common system:
“We can renew the international system that has enabled so much progress, or we can allow ourselves to be pulled back by an undertow of instability. We can reaffirm our collective responsibility to confront global problems, or be swamped by more and more outbreaks of instability. “
He directly criticized Russia for violating one of the cardinal norms of the world system: the inviolability of national borders.
“Recently, Russia’s actions in Ukraine challenge this post-war order….This is a vision of the world in which might makes right — a world in which one nation’s borders can be redrawn by another, and civilized people are not allowed to recover the remains of their loved ones because of the truth that might be revealed.”
Obama also endorsed the idea of the free movement of goods, services, and ideas, but he used the threat of the Ebola virus to demonstrate why all nations should support freedom of movement–a curious, but effective, way of highlighting the full implications of that commitment:
“As we speak, America is deploying our doctors and scientists — supported by our military — to help contain the outbreak of Ebola and pursue new treatments. But we need a broader effort to stop a disease that could kill hundreds of thousands, inflict horrific suffering, destabilize economies, and move rapidly across borders. It’s easy to see this as a distant problem — until it is not.”
Finally, Obama explicitly endorsed one of the principal tenets of liberalism by endorsing a clear separation of church and state when talking about the problem of terrorism:
“So we reject any suggestion of a clash of civilizations. Belief in permanent religious war is the misguided refuge of extremists who cannot build or create anything, and therefore peddle only fanaticism and hate. And it is no exaggeration to say that humanity’s future depends on us uniting against those who would divide us along the fault lines of tribe or sect, race or religion.”
The speech was a clear representation of the values of the American conception of an appropriate world order.
There is speculation that the North Korean leader, Kim Jong-Eun, may be suffering a serious health problem. He has not appeared publicly for about three weeks, and in his previous appearances, he appeared to limp and to have gained a considerable amount of weight. Given that he wields considerable power within North Korea, any possibility that he cannot effectively discharge his responsibilities raises the issue of power struggles within the elite to fill that vacuum. Needless to say, potential instability in North Korea is a strategic threat to all its neighbors.
Maj. Mariam al-Mansouri is pilot in the air force of the United Arab Emirates and has participated in the bombing of the Islamic State sites in Syria. She is the first female fighter pilot in the UAE, and, as far as I can tell, the only woman who is participating in the bombing missions.
The Islamic State asserts that its principles are derived from Islam, although most Muslims would strongly differ. The interpretation of Islam most closely associated with the Islamic State comes from the teachings of an Islamic scholar, Muhammed ibn Abd al-Wahhab, who lived in the Saudi peninsula in the 18th century and whose doctrine has come to be known as Wahhabism. Wahhabism is the dominant interpretation of Islam in Saudi Arabia, and was a source of inspiration to Osama bin Laden, the founder of al Qaeda. The linkage between the terrorist groups and the Saudi Arabian monarchy is a serious problem for the Saudi government which likely explains Saudi participation in the coalition in the air strikes against the Islamic State.
Muhammad ibn Abd al Wahhab
Nigerian authorities are claiming an important victory over forces supporting Boko Haram in the northeast town of Biu. The military has been trying for several years to get control of the northeastern part of the country, and this incident is a solid sign of progress. The death of the leader of this militant group (whether for real, or of the stand-in for the leader) is likely an important psychological blow. We’ll see if the Nigerian government can follow through.
The US has the unenviable position of being the most economically developed country with the highest percentage of low paying jobs as a total of all jobs. This chart from Morgan Stanley does not paint a flattering picture.
The US, Saudi Arabia, Bahrain, Jordan, Qatar, and the United Arab Emirates have conducted bombing missions in Syrian territory. The move is a rather dramatic escalation of the US effort to dislodge and destroy the Islamic State. The coalition is a rather odd assortment of states given the animosity within the group (the Saudis and the Qataris do not see eye to eye on many matters), but the fact that all five allies are Arab states provides the US with some political cover from the charge of unilateral action. What remains to be seen is how Turkey, Iran, and Russia will respond to this escalation.
The US Center for Disease Control (CDC) has issued a warning that the number of Ebola virus cases could reach as many as 1.4 million cases by next January. The high estimate is based on a scenario in which there is not a concerted effort to contain the disease, but also based on the large number of unreported cases that the CDC has detected. But vigorous containment efforts, like those recently and successfully implemented in Nigeria, could significantly slow down the spread of the virus.
A document purportedly from the Islamic State has been posted on the Internet. There is no way for me to verify that the document is in fact from the IS, but a number of reputable news sources have cited it. The post is a call to arms to all Muslims to support the Caliphate and to articulate the IS view of world affairs. It is worth a cursory reading–some of the language is truly inflammatory. I will not ask any questions on the quiz about this article.
There have been a string of bomb explosions in the Xinjiang Province of China. The explosions are likely protests by the Uighur ethnic group in the province against the political power exercised by the ethnic Han Chinese who are the majority group in China. The blasts are also likely related to the upcoming verdict of a prominent Beijing economist who has been accused of inciting violence on behalf of the Uighurs. The Uighurs are primarily Muslim so the threat of separatism is taken very seriously by the Beijing government. The Indonesian government has arrested 4 Chinese nationals who are accused of trying to connect with a local representative of the Islamic State. If that report is accurate, then the Chinese will certainly worry about a spillover from Iraq and Syria into Xinjiang.
Students in Hong Kong have begun a weeklong boycott of classes in order to prove their commitment to democracy in Hong Kong. The concern of the students is that the central government in Beijing will choose the candidates for election in local races. The students would prefer to have more democratic selection processes. The protesters carried banners that said: “The boycott must happen. Disobey and grasp your destiny.” Protests have been going on for several months now, and there does not appear to be any movement toward a reconciliation.
The US was flooded with talking heads on the Sunday News Programs in the media, all of whom were trying to figure out the future course of action by the US in its activities against the Islamic State. I sincerely doubt that any of the commentators had any basis for their observations, but it does seem very clear that no one has a clue about how matters will unfold. One very thoughtful analysis, however, appeared in The Hindu. The article outlines the sequence of problems the US will face as it tries to determine a military response to the IS.
Despite heroic efforts and substantial efforts to reduce greenhouse gas emissions, China now produces more of those gases than the United States and Europe combined. Indeed, the world is now producing 65% more carbon gases than it did in 1990, the year the world began to talk seriously about limiting such emissions. The UN meeting this week will tell us a great deal about whether progress will be made in the future to reduce carbon emissions–unless those emissions are reduced by at least 5% a year, then catastrophic global warming cannot be averted.
There was a very large protest in Moscow against Russian activities in Ukraine. The protesters reject President Putin’s explanation of events in Ukraine, and believe that Russia is the aggressor. The anti-war protest was the first since violence broke out in Ukraine last April, and apparently there were a lot of anti-Kremlin posters. The Russian people remember the loss of soldiers in the Russian military actions in Afghanistan and Chechnya and are worried about an escalation of violence in Ukraine.
The People’s Climate March takes place tomorrow in New York City. The march is sponsored by more than 1,400 organizations and targets a meeting scheduled for later in the week at the United Nations. The UN Climate Summit starts on 23 September against a background of dismal failure by the international community to take effective action against climate change. The American public, in particular, has been generally unaware of the problem of climate change, and the march attempts to change that apathy. It is likely to at least make a lot of noise.
US Secretary of State Kerry has stated that Iran has a “role” in fighting the Islamic State, but that would not be part of any coalition in which the US played a part. Iran has strongly supported the Shia government of Iraq and the Alawite government of Assad in Syria. Thus, the US and Iran agree on supporting the current government of Iraq, but not the current government of Syria. One should suspect that the US and Iran are actually cooperating to a large degree, but that neither government wishes their respective populations to know about the cooperation. It will be interesting to see if this cooperation has any spillover in the current negotiations with Iran over its nuclear program.
We will be reading more and more about the coalition of states that have joined the US to “degrade and destroy” the Islamic State. US President Obama is desperately looking for states that would be willing to send ground forces to Iraq and Syria since he has declared that the US would not do so. We should, however, be quite aware of the fact that some states in this purported coalition often work at cross-purposes to US interests. Most notable among these states are Saudi Arabia and Qatar.
By a 55-45 percentage margin, Scottish voters have voted to remain part of the United Kingdom. It is a decisive margin, and a triumph for democratic procedures (most secessionist movements are distinctly violent). The result, however, does not mean that things will remain the same. In order to avoid a “yes” vote for independence, the British government made significant promises toward greater autonomy for all parts of the United Kingdom. Thus, it is likely that Scotland, Wales, England, and Northern Ireland will all demand great powers over questions of taxation and spending. The only areas likely to be untouched by the autonomy changes will be in the arenas of foreign and defense policy.
German Muslims united to show their disdain for the Islamic State. There are about 4 million German Muslims and authorities estimate that about 400 German Muslims have left to join the Islamic State. The vast majority of German Muslims do not regard the “Islamic State” as Islamic since its behavior contravenes the precepts of Islam. It is unfortunate that demonstrations of this sort are rarely mentioned in the American media, since the protests are a more accurate index of Muslim attitudes in the world.
The recent visit by Chinese President Xi to India was highlighted by extensive economic talks and agreements. On the surface, it appeared as if Prime Minister Modi and President Xi got along very well. There are, however, some deeper rifts between the two countries, not the least of which is a long history of territorial competition. The economic ties are mutually beneficial, but unlikely to override the great power rivalries between the two emerging powers.
For many years now, experts have assumed that global population would stabilize at 9 billion people around the year 2050. That projection was based upon a number of assumptions which, while reasonable, were never really carefully examined. New research, however, has raised questions about the estimates, and the new studies suggest that global population could plausibly increase to about 11 billion by the year 2100. Such an increase would create serious challenges to the global environment and the carrying capacity of the planet.
The US Senate has followed the lead of the House of Representatives and endorsed arming Syrian rebels dedicated to the overthrow of Syrian President Assad as well as opposing the Islamic State in Syria and Iraq. The measure was voted upon as part of a larger bill to fund the government, so many Senators were unable to express their true feelings about supporting the rebels. Nonetheless, it does not seem to be likely that the measure will have any effect on the Syrian civil war any time soon since it will take months to begin training the rebels. But the measure deepens US involvement in this very sticky situation.
Eight health workers were killed in Guinea as a crowd believed that the health care providers were intent on spreading the Ebola virus. The tragedy reflects one of the ongoing problems in containing the outbreak of the Ebola virus: many of the people in the region are afraid of the health care system and some parts of the population believe that Ebola is being deliberately spread. The article quotes a local police officer, Richard Haba, who said that the villagers believed that Ebola “is nothing more than an invention of white people to kill black people.”
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